Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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thanks for the reply's. i do follow quite a few of the established bloggers on here for info. got more work to do, so bbl
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Thats jfv he knows everyone
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I did tell you guys that I was sure that a low will be on the 18Z map

does that mean a surface circulation?
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 891
Quoting cloudburst2011:



NOW YOU ASKED A QUESTION EVERYONE WOULD LIKE TO KNOW EVEN THE NHC...


Ouch! My ears hurt!
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting zparkie:
good new, good news, storms getting hit with phantom destroyer, everything just falls apart, the one off aftica did look good but it made a hop skip jump and has an elongated convection, but if this continues and these storms cant organize and just peter out to just waves or tropical storms this will be a good hurricane year. Maybe the water is not hot enough but something is disrupting organization this year. you can never figure out mother nature. Lots of waves though.
I wouldn't be expecting much from any Twave before about 45W this year... as long as it's got a circulation going into that zone, it has an equal chance of making it.

I'm glad we haven't had anything major so far. Dunno how much longer it will last, though.... Enjoy while you can.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
000
FXUS64 KHGX 172027
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
327 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OR EXCEEDED 100 DEGREES
AS OF 3PM...INCLUDING INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. THIS EXTENDS THE
STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE DAYS IN HOUSTON TO 17.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR
WEST. A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANYTHING BUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION. HAVE BROUGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. 38
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though I think they put it a bit too far south
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Do people really think it will take a few hours (3-4 hours) for 93L to work its MLC down to the surface, get it well-defined, and close it off?

Come on now...


No. But it does not take an exceptionally long period of time, either.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting JFV2015:


?


uummm if this is jfv the troll get off if your new welcome sorry i dont like him he came on the blog and posts bad stuff and flicks everyone off
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I'm not beliving any forecast for the fall and winter from any forecast center for my area.The leaves are now starting to change color and are slowing but surely falling off.Soon I'll defintally start to see them come down more and more often.They've been doing that for the past few years.Since 2009 to be exsact.They said for this year January would be warm for my area.However it was a cold January.But it was so dry and we had little snow.
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Quoting weatherh98:


GET OFF OUR BLOG JFV




better yet dont even Quote him
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Advice for newbies:

1.) Get the know the bloggers...Knowing people on here makes you feel a lot more comfortable posting on here.

2.) Write your own blog entires, it builds up your reputation on the blog and after a while, you become respected (i.e. Levi32, Drakoen, etc.)

3.) When people go off-topic, you use the minus and report button at your own discretion. Also, make good use of the Ignore User button. To ignore a person, simply find on their posts and click the "Ignore User" button. However, you cannot ignore somebody until after you have created a blog entry. Nobody said it had to be much though :)

4.) Do not feed into the trolls, which are the people that purposely come on here to spam the blog and make it a horrible place to be.

5.) This blog has a very diverse age group - from pre-teens to adults. So, when you post, make sure it is suitable for us pre-adults. :)

Other than that, enjoy the blog!
6) People who constantly post about GW(pro or con)and Politics(Rep or Dem) are also Trolls.
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I did tell you guys that I was sure that a low will be on the 18Z map

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Quoting Neapolitan:

2002's Gustav was that season's first hurricane; it was named on September 8, and became a hurricane on September 11. That was the latest first hurricane since 1941's Hurricane Two, which became a hurricane on September 18th.

(1941 was an odd year; the first TS didn't form until September 11, and the season was over on October 22. But in that time frame, the record was 6-4-2...and three of those hurricanes were in existence on the same date [September 23rd]).
Thank You Nea, that's what I was looking for, it would've taken me years to go through each year since 1851 to find that out, hehehe.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Neapolitan:

2002's Gustav was that season's first hurricane; it was named on September 8, and became a hurricane on September 11. That was the latest first hurricane since 1941's Hurricane Two, which became a hurricane on September 18th.

A Category 1 hurricane named Lili developed in mid-December in 1984. In 1988, hurricane Nicole, likewise a Category 1, formed in the tropics in late November but was still raging when December came around.
Epsilon is the 14th Atlantic-basin hurricane of the record-setting 2005 season. It started in late November and continued into December...
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Quoting Drakoen:


no
thanx
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
Quoting Chicklit:

Is anyone checking buoy readings?



Station 42058
NDBC
Location: 14.923N 74.918W
Conditions as of:
Wed, 17 Aug 2011 20:50:00 UTC
Winds: SE (130°) at 11.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.3 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ENE (73°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.82 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.7 F
Dew Point: 71.8 F
Water Temperature: 83.7 F
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42 years ago tonight Hurricane Camille roared ashore on the Gulf Coast.



Hurricane Camille Photo Archive
Mississippi Gulf Coast - August 17-18, 1969
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An intersting view of 93L

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Quoting BahaHurican:

coolie, there's an excellent FAQ at the NHC website that has all these little goodies on it. I know I've looked this one up before, and it's somewhere around the 28th or so. Andrew was just coming together around this time 19 years ago.
So I looked, and it's not on that FAQ!!!! [I was so sure it was....] Now I'm trying to find where I saw that... last year sometime.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
between all the african dust and wind shear doesnt look like we will see any hurricanes this year and thats a good thing


Nope, no hurricanes at all! Hasn't happened in 97 years, guess this will be the year huh???
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Advice for newbies:

1.) Get the know the bloggers...Knowing people on here makes you feel a lot more comfortable posting on here.

2.) Write your own blog entires, it builds up your reputation on the blog and after a while, you become respected (i.e. Levi32, Drakoen, etc.)

3.) When people go off-topic, you use the minus and report button at your own discretion. Also, make good use of the Ignore User button. To ignore a person, simply find on their posts and click the "Ignore User" button. However, you cannot ignore somebody until after you have created a blog entry. Nobody said it had to be much though :)

4.) Do not feed into the trolls, which are the people that purposely come on here to spam the blog and make it a horrible place to be.

5.) This blog has a very diverse age group - from pre-teens to adults. So, when you post, make sure it is suitable for us pre-adults. :)

Other than that, enjoy the blog!


thank you for all this info. I only "lurk" but this info is very helpful for the "ignore" part you mentioned :-)
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Fairly easy to predict flooding in Honduras/Nicaragua from 93L, isn't it?
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Quoting rushisaband:
good afternoon .... new blogger here from p'cola fl.
have experienced several storms .. always fascinated by them. don't really want to go through another direct hit
( ivan the terrible ) but eventually it will happen again. my family went through the eye wall for at least five hours ( longest night of my life !!)anyways ...good to be here


Welcome! Yes Ivan was a bad one, he was a slow mover that hit at night and howled all night long! I was on the East side of it in Fort Walton Beach and luckily we were just far enough to the East not to get the worse of it, Navarre and definitely got it a lot worse than us.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Advice for newbies:

1.) Get the know the bloggers...Knowing people on here makes you feel a lot more comfortable posting on here.

2.) Write your own blog entires, it builds up your reputation on the blog and after a while, you become respected (i.e. Levi32, Drakoen, etc.)

3.) When people go off-topic, you use the minus and report button at your own discretion. Also, make good use of the Ignore User button. To ignore a person, simply find on their posts and click the "Ignore User" button. However, you cannot ignore somebody until after you have created a blog entry. Nobody said it had to be much though :)

4.) Do not feed into the trolls, which are the people that purposely come on here to spam the blog and make it a horrible place to be.

5.) This blog has a very diverse age group - from pre-teens to adults. So, when you post, make sure it is suitable for us pre-adults. :)

Other than that, enjoy the blog!


To add to that first i didnt have to post my ignore works just fine!!!! and no politics illl get involved and then banned not good
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:


are the HH still in 93L?


no
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Link850mbVorticity Map
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Better?





Now that's more like it, Rookie! :)
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Quoting Drakoen:
Latest microwave pass suggests a cyclonic circulation near 15.5N 75.1W



are the HH still in 93L?
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
Quoting cyclonekid:


Yet another area of interest from a frontal boundary. I think we've had more frontal systems this year than we've had in the last couple of years. Let's see...

*Bret
*Cindy
*Franklin

Last year we only had TD 5.

Interesting.


I believe this season has had more frontal boundary activity than any other season ever recorded.

JMO though, don't know about seasons before 2000.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
good new, good news, storms getting hit with phantom destroyer, everything just falls apart, the one off aftica did look good but it made a hop skip jump and has an elongated convection, but if this continues and these storms cant organize and just peter out to just waves or tropical storms this will be a good hurricane year. Maybe the water is not hot enough but something is disrupting organization this year. you can never figure out mother nature. Lots of waves though.
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Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
when is the african dust gonna stop?


I guess when mjo fully returns... Levi could you answer this i wanna no too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Advice for newbies:

1.) Get the know the bloggers...Knowing people on here makes you feel a lot more comfortable posting on here.

2.) Write your own blog entires, it builds up your reputation on the blog and after a while, you become respected (i.e. Levi32, Drakoen, etc.)

3.) When people go off-topic, you use the minus and report button at your own discretion. Also, make good use of the Ignore User button. To ignore a person, simply find on their posts and click the "Ignore User" button. However, you cannot ignore somebody until after you have created a blog entry. Nobody said it had to be much though :)

4.) Do not feed into the trolls, which are the people that purposely come on here to spam the blog and make it a horrible place to be.

5.) This blog has a very diverse age group - from pre-teens to adults. So, when you post, make sure it is suitable for us pre-adults. :)

Other than that, enjoy the blog!
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Quoting Chicklit:


Looking better organized, but still yet to get a closed surface circulation.
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Quoting rushisaband:
good afternoon .... new blogger here from p'cola fl.
have experienced several storms .. always fascinated by them. don't really want to go through another direct hit
( ivan the terrible ) but eventually it will happen again. my family went through the eye wall for at least five hours ( longest night of my life !!)anyways ...good to be here


welcome aboard!!
Member Since: September 18, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5248
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I can't seem to find the answer to this question...In one Atlantic Hurricane Season, what is the latest the first Hurricane formed? TIA

2002's Gustav was that season's first hurricane; it was named on September 8, and became a hurricane on September 11. That was the latest first hurricane since 1941's Hurricane Two, which became a hurricane on September 18th.

(1941 was an odd year; the first TS didn't form until September 11, and the season was over on October 22. But in that time frame, the record was 6-4-2...and three of those hurricanes were in existence on the same date [September 23rd]).
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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