Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting ProgressivePulse:


This AOI has been silently consolidating the past couple days. Looks to be around 13.5-14N 34W. Sometimes these large envelopes can aide a system by shielding a surface low from dry air.


That is a good point and may be true, however it will take longer for it to develop and it would be much more easily disrupted by land such as Hispanola on it's possible track keeping it from developing very much. Time will tell.
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1009. WxLogic
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yeah, that it is.

I hate this "models that far out aren't worth looking at" in huge conflict with "when models consistently return the same result, pay close attention".


Is pretty amazing from my point of view that that GFS and some of the others (CMC, UKM) have been showing such consistency specially until they get to PR/DR which GFS leading the pack for so many runs now.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
93L's vorticity is becoming more and more elongated as time progresses...Not a good sign for the invest.

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i can only hope we get some rain here on Roatan from whatever 93L becomes. been a very dry spring and summer here so far. all persons living with cisterns would really appreciate a few inches of rain. and my gardens would be extremely happy....
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Quoting JFV2015:



Pulse, do you think this one has our name written all over us?



Way too far out for specifics however. The NAO switched to positive which will strengthen the B/A high. Long range local forecasts go along with this scenario, could be a player down the line based on the forecast dynamics.


000
FXUS62 KMFL 171803
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

.EXTENDED PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE EASTERN U.S.
TROUGH FINALLY LIFTS NE ALLOWING FOR THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
BUILD N PLACING S FL IN A DEEP EASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT A RETURN
TO MORE NORMAL S FLA CONVECTION PATTERN I.E. DIURNAL MAINLY INTERIOR
AMD W WITH NOCTURNAL E COAST WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Quoting MTWX:

The origin of the name "Dime Box" stemmed from a custom in which early settlers would use a large, wooden box to forward and receive mail, or order small items from a carrier on horseback traveling to nearby Giddings...

Thanks. I've driven by it dozens of times and always wondered.
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18z gfs 120 hours
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 891
is that ex 92L at 25N 55W?
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Most intense run today...will get disrupted by the mountains of the Dominican Republic though...however chances are it survives this time around. 126 hours:


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
999. THL3
933. atmoaggie Better? Than what; the current chance of a TS developing over Snook, Texas?

There is a better chance of finding chicken fried bacon in Snook, TX.
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have we ever had the first 5 storms in the e pac become hurricanes before this year?
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18Z GFS @ 108HR:

If it gets to be this strong or stronger by the time it gets closer to DR it might survive.

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Quoting WxLogic:


Is about the same as the 12Z:

Yeah, that it is.

I hate this "models that far out aren't worth looking at" in huge conflict with "when models consistently return the same result, pay close attention".
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Quoting Patrap:



Well me and Grothar was in Mexico and I dont recall a Hit there that year either, maybe Gro does.


I was busy explaining, well..nevermind.
...that EVERYTHING is good and cheap in Mexico!
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:

wouldnt this be nice? i remember it brought all of the areas east of it including dfw a good soaker we has massive rains and no wind damage to south Texas it was the perfect storm

Oh, I remember Hermine. San Antonio flooded, as it does every single time it rains because the sewers are laughable. Still, it was so nice to see ACTUAL water in the creeks and grass growing afterwards.
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Quoting fishcop:

try telling that to the crooked politicians.
See, this is how it gets started, comanche..... lol.... had a really good discussion the other day w/ a fellow blogger [RV1???] re: applications of solar / wind power in tropical cyclone prone countries. Definitely some potential, but some considerations, too.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Ahh, DMIN time, the time where nonsense people troll around saying "oh 93L lost convection wow i'll say dry air and shear is killing it" while the wholehearted experts say "It lost convection due to DMIN, though they will not reduce its chances of formation"
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Quoting bigeasystormcaster:


It is huge and could be something if it develops, but I just think it has too much to overcome including it's shear size which makes these large storms difficult to consolidate and ultimately get organized.


This AOI has been silently consolidating the past couple days. Looks to be around 13.5-14N 34W. Sometimes these large envelopes can aide a system by shielding a surface low from dry air.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hmm, is that south of previous runs? wonder it this is the one that keeps it from N of crossing Hispaniola until west of Haiti.


Is about the same as the 12Z:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
is that low at by 15N 35W close?
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Quoting cloudburst2011:
the 7 storms we have had without a hurricane hasnt happened since 1851..



Well me and Grothar was in Mexico and I dont recall a Hit there that year either, maybe Gro does.


I was busy explaining, well..nevermind.
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Quoting WxLogic:
18Z GFS @84HR:

Starting to affect the Leeward Islands...

Hmm, is that south of previous runs? wonder it this is the one that keeps it from crossing N of Hispaniola until west of Haiti.
...not that it means a thing, at this point.
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980. MTWX
Quoting twincomanche:
I have been asking my relatives in Texas for years about the origin of Dime Box Texas. So far no answers.

The origin of the name "Dime Box" stemmed from a custom in which early settlers would use a large, wooden box to forward and receive mail, or order small items from a carrier on horseback traveling to nearby Giddings. In 1913, when the Southern Pacific Railroad built a line three miles to the southeast of the community, most of the residents and businesses moved to a site near the tracks. From that point onward, the original settlement became known as Old Dime Box and the new community was referred to as Dime Box or New Dime Box. A Texas Historical Marker was erected in 1968 that honored Old Dime Box as the second oldest community in Lee County. The community had a population of approximately 200 residents in 1970 with several businesses. The population remained stable through 2000
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Link

Should clear Nic/Hon border and have a longer track over water as the the center is above 15N, also this has definitely slowed down imo compared to yesterday, looking like duck more and more, if it starts to quack then maybe it will be a duck, just sayin....
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Bout time to start looking deeper into the C-Atl wave, starting to get into a 3 day forecast for the islands.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Quoting Tazmanian:



the next will be 97L


It is huge and could be something if it develops, but I just think it has too much to overcome including it's shear size which makes these large storms difficult to consolidate and ultimately get organized.
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Quoting JFV2015:
I think there's a good chance that Baha and I will experience a ''GOOD ONE'' come the fall. I hope so, anyways. I wouldn't mind my final semester at FIU getting temporarily disrupted by a tropical system, GOD WILLING. Let's see whether pre-94L will be the one to do it, =).
I'm currently laughing at this comment becuase it's freaking hilarious(or as i would say) He-Ha-larious.
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When we think abt hurricanes in the GoM, don't forget a bad strike anywhere from TX to FL could mean a spike in oil prices. And here, more than 50% of electric bill right now is fuel surcharge....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Quoting twincomanche:
Tough with the price of oil. Time to think solar?

try telling that to the crooked politicians.
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Quoting twincomanche:
I have been asking my relatives in Texas for years about the origin of Dime Box Texas. So far no answers.


We've had a family game of when traveling to look at names and make up outragious stories of how some places got their names.
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18Z GFS @84HR:

Starting to affect the Leeward Islands...

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Quoting twincomanche:
I have been asking my relatives in Texas for years about the origin of Dime Box Texas. So far no answers.
Well, it was a better choice than dime bag...but not by a whole lot.
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Next invest is 97L
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458
Quoting BahaHurican:
Here in The Bahamas they are; dunno about Caymans, but likely the same.

All petrol and all three islands. I think Little Cayman is gas powered.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Hurricane Winnipeg...



More impressive than any invest... eh?

I guess it's more in Ontario. Even storms hate Winnipeg.



WINNIPEG RULES!!!!!

That's why I live in Utila, HN
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Hello everyone, looks like pre 94L-? is slowly getting its act together in regards to the models currently. We all need to keep a close eye on this one. Might be some problems down the road if it developes.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



the next will be 97L



Your right TAZ, thanks for the correction.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5458

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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