Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Okay, lets get something straight, since some of you people seem to have some kind of personal grudge on me or something. By no means am I wishing a hurricane on anybody, having been in SEVERAL (Floyd, Isabel, etc). And by no means am I "egging a system" on. I do not wish for anybody to have to go through the wind machines that they call hurricanes.

Some of you can stand up for me - You know I don't wish a hurricane on anybody, right?
Yes.That's JFV's job anyway.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Bye bye JFV. POOF!


Just like those movies Friday the 13th, Jason never goes away.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Our superintendent, (I'm a teacher) had school. By the time we got out they were telling us NOT to evacuate, we'd be caught on the roads. We left three days later. It was too hot to stay and with a son with a heart condition, not safe. I went north to a son who was an ATC at Little Rock Air Force Base. You should have seen the SP at the gate when I pulled up with 12 Papillons in crates, a huge doberman leaning down and across me to see him, two kids and an African Grey parrot screaming, "No go! Cricket no go!' from the back seat. I showed him my ID card and reassured him we were going through base and out the back gate to where my son lived. He did say if they had to they would find a place for me. A lot of military and retired military don't know if they evacuate any base will put them up. Ike wasn't as bad, niether was Gustav two weeks later. Sorry about your house!


Sounds like you had quite an adventure. It was because of the evac for Gustav (that didn't come anywhere near here) that we didn't have the money or the gas to leave for Ike. I'm just glad that the repairs from Rita held up during Ike. As soon as the lights came back on (about 2 or 3 weeks later) things started getting back to normal for us fairly quickly. The people in Bridge City had it a lot worse than we did here in Vidor.
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Quoting WxLogic:


I personally have the Davis Pro 2 and given your budget I would stay with the Davis line for now, if you budget would have been a bit more now there other more accurate options. That's just my option and pretty sure others will have better ones.


What are those options? I could probably go higher but I wanted to get a boltek as well. Dr. Master recommended that I get one and I can make that integrate into the grid of lightning detectors.
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Quoting winter123:
Fernandas circulation is MASSIVE to the north. She seems to be tightening and intensifying, trying to form an eye? 93l looks like a depression!
Let us know if Fernanda starts creating her own moisture field.
.
And as far as 93L, please let it be a TD at 11(though my thoughts and prayers are with those in Central America). Let there be some talk of a TD at 11 at least. Louie The Lip is coming by tomorrow unless I get some income coming in.
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Quoting JFV2015:
Wow, this run just made my day, I LOVED IT. mother nature, PRETTY PLEASE, PAN OUT, i BEG OF THOU.


death wishing youre horrible
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1149. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting JFV2015:


Keeper, if this run pans out, I will drop dead, my friend.
is that what is foretold what you really want
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
As we know, the models are going to flip back and forth but I think that the NHC 3 day track (based upon models as well with some human element variations) is the best we can do at the moment and what I follow at the end of the day. I was actually a bit surprised to see at the April Hurricane Conference in Atlanta that one of the areas of possible development at NHC is a good 7 Day track forecast.............I don't see how it is possible (an accurate one) and the 5 day is already tough to nail down. I am sure that it has something to do with the greater resolutions and additional data input they are looking at but just too many "Mother Nature" variables to consider outside of 3 days; 5 days might be a "heads up" at best.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I see a smiley face.





haha itsmy face
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Okay, lets get something straight, since some of you people seem to have some kind of personal grudge on me or something. By no means am I wishing a hurricane on anybody, having been in SEVERAL (Floyd, Isabel, etc). And by no means am I "egging a system" on. I do not wish for anybody to have to go through the wind machines that they call hurricanes.

Some of you can stand up for me - You know I don't wish a hurricane on anybody, right?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
1110. JFV2015 10:48 PM GMT on August 17, 2011


iwas almost blindedbythat on the computer.... jfv... ivealready said enough
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Quoting Tazmanian:
93L not looking good right now


It's because of DMIN taz, no biggie.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
Quoting scott39:
My daughter came home from School today and said "Daddy can you help me with homework"? I said "sure sweety what is it"? "I need help with some kind of weather models". "My History teacher is a hurricane NUT like you,and said that she would give some extra credit to whoever got the closest to where landfall would be in the US. NO JOKE!! So what would be the safest bet? FL.? I will be going to meet this History teacher! LOL


LOL! And due tomorrow? Have her print out models and sheer maps, etc., to show how she got to her hit point. And don't forget to include "The Graph"! Showing and explaining it in simple terms will impress her teacher. Let us know how it turns out!
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Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
is 93 gonna be a cat 3 or 4?
stop being a damn alarmist.No it's not.
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1137. WxLogic
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Evening everyone.... Im in the market for a new weather station... It needs to be wireless and the ablilty to be attached to a MAC and or a PC.. I had a Davis Weather Pro and It is time for an upgrade.

Any suggestions?? I have a budget of about $1000


I personally have the Davis Pro 2 and given your budget I would stay with the Davis line for now, if you budget would have been a bit more now there other more accurate options. That's just my option and pretty sure others will have better ones.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
Quoting JFV2015:
Wow, this run just made my day, I LOVED IT. mother nature, PRETTY PLEASE, PAN OUT, i BEG OF THOU.


Bye bye JFV. POOF!
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6814
1134. gugi182
My question is will we have a new INVEST by the end of the day?
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1133. xcool
lmaoo
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Still nothing outside the affects of diurnal variation.


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Fernandas circulation is MASSIVE to the north. She seems to be tightening and intensifying, trying to form an eye? 93l looks like a depression!
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1130. WxLogic
Quoting stormpetrol:


Pressure are now falling in the path of 93L


93L has actually gained latitude too and with good reason:



Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
Evening everyone.... Im in the market for a new weather station... It needs to be wireless and the ablilty to be attached to a MAC and or a PC.. I had a Davis Weather Pro and It is time for an upgrade.

Any suggestions?? I have a budget of about $1000
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poor JFV
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114053
Quoting ElConando:


That's what she said!!!

:P couldn't resist.

Anyways 8 days is a long way out, lets see this puppy develop first.
LMAO. I agree, but definitely something to keep a weary eye on as the tropical wave nears closer.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Agreed..........But the Blogger has missed the point ("Chill Out".....Please). It is highly offensive IMHO to see younger bloggers (and no offense to the good ones who actually do analysis) who have never experienced the destruction of a hurricane and impacts on families egg a major on so to speak.

it will be interesting the way the season pans out jb is hyping the next wave coming off of africa strongest since donnna
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Agreed..........But the Blogger has missed the point ("Chill Out".....Please). It is highly offensive IMHO to see younger bloggers (and no offense to the good ones who actually do analysis) who have never experienced the destruction of a hurricane and impacts on families egg a major on so to speak.



+10.....I do think there r a couple on here right now intentionally....rubbing it in. I would just ignore them
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1122. scott39
My daughter came home from School today and said "Daddy can you help me with homework"? I said "sure sweety what is it"? "I need help with some kind of weather models". "My History teacher is a hurricane NUT like you,and said that she would give some extra credit to whoever got the closest to where landfall would be in the US. NO JOKE!! So what would be the safest bet? FL.? I will be going to meet this History teacher! LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
17/1745 UTC 15.5N 74.5W T2.0/2.0 93L
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1120. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 163 Comments: 52257
1118. WxLogic
Quoting ElConando:


That's what she said!!!

:P couldn't resist.

Anyways 8 days is a long way out, lets see this puppy develop first.


lol... the way I see it, if it's able to get strong enough to survive a trek through the Carib. Islands then the rest is another story.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4881
1117. Gearsts
Quoting JLPR2:


Usually talking too much about it usually sends it away. XD
Omg that is so true lol
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1116. Thrawst
Link

NAM model spins up home grown mischief north of the Bahamas... AGAIN. goes out to see quickly... but probs another name gone like that.
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Quoting islander101010:
but you should have the list including a full tank of gas


Agreed..........But the Blogger has missed the point ("Chill Out".....Please). It is highly offensive IMHO to see younger bloggers (and no offense to the good ones who actually do analysis) who have never experienced the destruction of a hurricane and impacts on families egg a major on so to speak.

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Pressure are now falling in the path of 93L
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I see a smiley face.



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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.