Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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I imagine waterspout's are pretty rare in North Carolina, could be wrong though.

TORNADO WARNING
NCC129-181430-
/O.NEW.KILM.TO.W.0027.110818T1416Z-110818T1430Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1016 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN NEW HANOVER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 1030 AM EDT

* AT 1012 AM EDT...THE PUBLIC HAS REPORT A WATERSPOUT HAS MOVED
ONSHORE CAROLINA BEACH NEAR THE 1800 BLOCK OF CANAL DRIVE. THIS
TORNADO IS DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
CAROLINA BEACH...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF IN MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES...EVACUATE THEM AND GET INSIDE A
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE
NEAREST DITCH OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

&&

PLEASE REPORT HAIL...DOWNED TREES OR DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON NC...TOLL FREE AT 877-633-6772...WHEN
YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3403 7788 3403 7789 3402 7789 3403 7791
3403 7793 3407 7792 3407 7788 3404 7788
TIME...MOT...LOC 1415Z 016DEG 1KT 3404 7789

$$
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How do you report a received WU e-mail message???
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting Patrap:
It is 97L

And one should never call anything Pre, its not done that way.


97L was declared within the past Hour

Atlantic
97L.INVEST
93L.INVEST



+1000 I hate that.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
This is a very cool looking pics of frost on a rear windscreen from an SUV in Christchurch.




god is an abstractionist w/ ice lol :) p.s. how is church my sister was working earthquake claims down there over the past year. she came back right before the 6.6 hit, about 2 months ago.
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Christchurch right now.


Aussie, isn't Christchurch like, way south? 1/2 way down the South Island???

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
Quoting BahaHurican:
Actually, based on some model runs I've seen overnight, trackwise he wouldn't be that far off. At least not for the Bahamas / FL part. However, given the lead time on this, there are about, oh, 30 or so other hurricanes in the historical record which this potential storm could also resemble at that point. So yeah, that was a bit hyped.... lol


LOL :-)
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Jeff how you holding out in the drought in Tomball?
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Quoting AussieStorm:

That is just Stoopid talk. Bye Bye Jason, join all you other names on my ignore list.

Currently 48.7�F heading for an over night low of 43�F and a high tomorrow(friday) of 63�F.
Actually, based on some model runs I've seen overnight, trackwise he wouldn't be that far off. At least not for the Bahamas / FL part. However, given the lead time on this, there are about, oh, 30 or so other hurricanes in the historical record which this potential storm could also resemble at that point. So yeah, that was a bit hyped.... lol

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
Quoting BahaHurican:
Also this problem with the trees wasn't always this bad. IIRC, the bulk of it happened since "Papa Doc" Duvalier seized control of the country. 75 years ago Haiti didn't have the same landslide problems.



yep. its strange to look at d.r. and haiti on google earth, it looks photoshop'ed because of the deforestation.
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Sorry bout that havent posted any links for awhile..I leave that up to all the experts lol
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I just have conformation HH is lift off
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12566
Country defrosts from winter blast

New Zealand is starting to get back to normal today after the Antarctic blast which brought the first snow in decades to much of the country, but there is still danger on the roads, with black ice expected in many areas over the coming days.

This week's cold snap has closed roads, airports and schools, and left hundreds without power.

All North Island state highways were open after the Desert Road reopened this morning followed by the Rimutaka Hill road between Wellington and the Wairarapa this afternoon.

The Lewis, Arthurs and Porter mountain passes remain closed in the South Island.

Queenstown, Dunedin, Christchurch and Wellington airports were all open and most schools were expected to reopen tomorrow.

Bluebridge and Interislander ferry passenger services would resume normal sailing times tomorrow, after both cancelled sailings today due to swells in the Cook Strait.

WeatherWatch.co.nz head analyst Philip Duncan said the wintry blast was starting to ease but snow flurries were still hitting parts of Canterbury and the wettest and coldest parts were in the North Island's east coast.

The freezing level was rising, so snow would fall only in higher country.

However, tomorrow morning would be extremely cold and minus 10degC was possible in the Central Otago basin.

"Many areas are still facing bitterly cold winds, sleet rain and even snow to sea level - but many others are seeing the sun.''

Mr Duncan says frosty conditions will stretch from Southland to Northland with severe frosts in the south and light to heavy frosts in the north.

"With so much snow melt and wet roads there is an extremely high risk of black ice on Thursday morning - and that risk will become more and more widespread over the next few days as this high slowly pushes in".

Frosty conditions may also affect parts of Canterbury dispite a few lingering snow and rain showers - but they will become isolated.

Frosts are less likely on the North Island's east coast from Wellington to Gisborne due to frequent showers and brisk winds. Severe frosts are expected across the central North Island too, in sheltered areas away from the brisk southerly wind.

Heavy to severe frosts are also expected from inland Taranaki to King Country and Waikato.

Mr Duncan said the centre of the low pressure weather system was now 2500km southeast of Christchurch and moving away from New Zealand.

"The main event has well and truly passed now, but we're still being affected by the tail end, so more heavy snow down to a few hundred metres from Canterbury to Hawke's Bay and wintry, sleety, conditions to sea level.''

St John regional operations manager for the South Island Chris Haines said the ambulance service was operating at usual levels today.

Christchurch lines company Orion this morning said power was out for 60 customers in Christchurch and central Canterbury - about 40 in parts of rural Leeston, Tai Tapu and Dunsandel, and fewer than 20 individual customers in the city.

North Island lines company Powerco said high winds and snow caused trees and branches to tear down overhead lines, cutting power to more than 37,000 customers since Sunday.

Supply was cut to about 500 customers in Hunterville and Tararua overnight due to the severe weather, and a further 4200 in Wanganui this morning. A car which crashed into a power pole in Wanganui cut power to 10 properties last night.

There were currently about 250 properties without supply spread across Manawatu, Taranaki and Wanganui. The majority of affected customers were expected to have supply restored by the end of today, although a small number may be without power where access was difficult or damage extensive.

- NZPA
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Link
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Quoting AussieStorm:
This is a very cool looking pics of frost on a rear windscreen from an SUV in Christchurch.


That is amazing. Looks like ganglia or synapses. Or all the paths I'm willing to take to get to a good garage sale.
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Quoting angiest:
Does anyone here use Google Earth in Linux to view recon data? I tried yesterday but the recon data never loaded. Models, etc, do work.
Yes, but not yesterday.

On Ubuntu Lucid LTS, but no DirectX. Have to use OpenGL mode (on a server with no dedicated graphics card).

Here is a GE load of the latest Live recon and selecting Fifth Suspect Area, Mission 02 - AF300 and a click on the plane in PR.

(Click for big version)
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2944. Patrap
It is 97L

And one should never call anything Pre, its not done that way.


97L was declared within the past Hour

Atlantic
97L.INVEST
93L.INVEST

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Link 97L on navy site
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Quoting jeffs713:

Both, probably.
The real one is JasonisCoolMan2012 the other is an imposter. If youve been on the blog pretty regularly you can tell the difference. The real Jason doesnt report anyone and doesnt talk about Mohammed!!
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Quoting Vincent4989:

Alright, which one here is the real Jason?


Doesn't matter...they both went POOF!
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Quoting Vincent4989:

Alright, which one here is the real Jason?

They both are. It's up to you what you do. I no what i have done.
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
2938. Grothar
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Hey Gro was that an opinion. I thought you gave those up!!!LOL


No, just an observation. LOL
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Quoting Vincent4989:

Alright, which one here is the real Jason?

Both, probably.
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2934. 7544
97l is the first wave so far that held it together when exiting the question is will the others do the same pretty impessive so far
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This is a very cool looking pics of frost on a rear windscreen from an SUV in Christchurch.

Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15962
Quoting AussieStorm:

Here's some pics for ya.













Just beautiful. :)
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Quoting TampaSpin:



YOu just doomed many..........YOU know that..........LOL


Little old me?

It is funny - 2007 had quite a few storms (15 named) and most were the harmless fizzle out type - except for the two heavy hitters of Dean and Felix.

Wonder if the same set up is happening for 2011?

Depends on what these invests are up to and what happens later in the season...
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Quoting Grothar:
Very vigorous wave.


Hey Gro was that an opinion. I thought you gave those up!!!LOL
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new steering map show the steering curents should push 93L/PRE-TD NW-NW/WNW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12566
Quoting JasonIsCoolman:
97L WOW!!!!!!
Quoting JasonCoolMan2012:
aprinz1979 = re - ported.no muhammad talk plz!!!

Alright, which one here is the real Jason?
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Heat watch: Today may be August’s hottest

Please, make it stop.

Houston hit 103 degrees Wednesday and it could get hotter today.

So far this summer, and alas it’s far from over, College Station, Huntsville, Conroe and Houston’s Hobby Airport have all beaten the record for the most 100-degree days in 1980.

Bush Intercontinental, Houston’s official weather site, now has just four to break its record as well.

Of course we’ve already set the record for most 100-degree days in a row, with 17 and counting, breaking a streak of 14 recorded in 1980

At least we’re not going to set a record high temperature for today, as it doesn’t look like we’ll get to 108 degrees, which the city recorded in 1909. Interestingly that’s just 1 degree below the warmest temperature ever measured in Houston, 109 degrees, reached Sept. 4, 2000.

I remember that brutal first week of September 11 years ago, do you?

FORECAST

The high pressure ridge remains in place, and should be strongest today before beginning to slightly weaken Friday, according to the National Weather Service. This slight weakening could open the door to showers Friday, but expect them to be isolated.

Other than that it’s business as usual, with today probably reaching 103 to 105 degrees, and highs across most areas in Houston north of downtown reaching 100 through the early part of next week.

Link

Record drought at root of area trees' deaths

Texas' historic drought is taking a toll on trees in parks and other public spaces, a problem complicated by restrictions on outdoor water use imposed by Houston-area cities.

In Galveston, which banned outdoor watering last week but relaxed the restrictions this week, officials are struggling to protect 8,000 trees planted to replace those killed by Hurricane Ike in 2008. A company hired to plant and maintain the trees is using non-drinkable water to irrigate them.

In Houston, hundreds of trees in Memorial Park and other city parks have perished.

Galveston officials on Tuesday loosened the city's ban on outdoor watering to allow residents to water landscaped areas before 10 a.m. and after 8 p.m. on designated days. The decision came after the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality rescinded its Aug. 11 mandate to eliminate all outdoor lawn and landscape watering in cities that draw water from the Brazos River Basin.

Link
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Quoting Grothar:
Very vigorous wave.





Its a big'n.......Groth
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2919. Patrap
Expect a new entry soon.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Look at the one coming off Africa.....we might see 2 very large Canes at the same time frame next week. Rough Peak of the Cane season a coming it appears.


You know, on one of the models I've seen in the last couple of days, in the same frame as the close approach by soon-to-be-97L, there was another low getting together out in the CATL.

I didn't give it much thought while looking at the hurricane on my house in the model, but it looks like it's possible.
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2915. Grothar
Very vigorous wave.


Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26897
Quoting whepton3:


Just been tagged according to lots of folks... strap in.


Look at the one coming off Africa.....we might see 2 very large Canes at the same time frame next week. Rough Peak of the Cane season a coming it appears.
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Quoting odinslightning:



storms also make huge catastrophes in Haiti because the Haitians have cut down 98%+ of all of the trees to use for firewood and to make things. Landslides cause huge fatalities and the D.R. still has it's trees, so they don't have as bad of a problem when alot of rain falls in a short time.
Also this problem with the trees wasn't always this bad. IIRC, the bulk of it happened since "Papa Doc" Duvalier seized control of the country. 75 years ago Haiti didn't have the same landslide problems.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22585
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Could be very positive news for Texas and the 4 letter word Rain: BY MONDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SHIFTING BACK TO
THE WEST AND AMPLIFYING. THIS WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN NORTH
FLOW...WHICH CAN BE A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR PRECIP. HAVE LEFT THE
MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND NO LIFTING
MECHANISMS OTHER THAN THERMALS...BUT WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EACH AFTERNOON.

FOR THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE THAT AN UPPER
LOW WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM AND TRACK ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. THE GUIDANCE THEN DIFFERS
WITH HOW THEY HANDLE THIS FEATURE FROM THERE. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS DROP TO THE SOUTH AND PLACES THE NORTH TEXAS
IN A FAVORABLE AXIS FOR LIFT AND THIS WOULD EQUAL DECENT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF STRENGTHENS AN UPPER
RIDGE OFF THE EASTERN ATLANTIC COAST AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
GETS WEDGED BETWEEN THE TWO DOMINANT RIDGES AND STALLS BEFORE
REACHING THE AREA. ONE OTHER THING TO NOTE IS THE ECMWF HAS
FOLLOWED THE GFS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM NEXT
WEEK WITH A PATH SOMEWHERE NEAR THE EAST COAST. THIS COULD ALSO
INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH OF THE EAST COAST RIDGE AND THUS OUR
POTENTIAL TROUGH. MANY VARIABLES HAVE TO BE SORTED THROUGH...BUT
KEPT THE 20 POPS FOR THURSDAY IN THE FORECAST. THIS IS SOMETHING
TO WATCH AND CAN HOPEFULLY BRING THE REGION SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL.


Hope it pans out. Any rain would be a blessing. :)
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.