Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Just curious but has there ever been a system that we were tracking that you have not taken the high end of the intensity forecast?
Ummmm I've seen him give reasonable forecast.
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is it me or is 93L pulling more and more N?
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1208. aquak9
Come come, Giovanna...come see what I have on the counter. No need for lumber, no need for travel. Forget about the models for now...come have more brownies with me.
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1206. JLPR2
93L's spin has gotten nicer on the MIMIC loop, but it seems 93L is still a mid-level feature.

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Quoting aquak9:


We got Bolteck, Davis, Rainwise, wireless, cable, integrated...you name it.


Hey water pup... What is your website again???
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Just sitting back watching the show ;)

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Just curious but has there ever been a system that we were tracking that you have not taken the high end of the intensity forecast?


IIRC, no.
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Quoting jonelu:
These model runs are giving me anxiety.
Do you live in the carribean islands?.
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Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
i feeel terrible for those in the path of 93


Don't joke, you might end up right!!
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I suspect by this time tomorrow, 93L will be a 60-70 mph storm somewhere between Belize or Honduras and The Cayman Islands, seen this before!


Just curious but has there ever been a system that we were tracking that you have not taken the high end of the intensity forecast?
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LEAVE US BE
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Quoting jonelu:
These model runs are giving me anxiety.


Don't pay much attention, they are used for guidance only, and are wrong quite a bit, especially since any landfall on the USA depicted on any model is over 10 days away.
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I suspect by this time tomorrow, 93L will be a 60-70 mph storm somewhere between Belize or Honduras and The Cayman Islands, seen this before!
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
taz... that shower curtain is WAY too nice for him....


Ha! Was just thinking that exact same thing! I don't see any mold in that shower!!!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, I agree.



whats see if the nhc say some in tonight on the 8pm two
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1193. jonelu
These model runs are giving me anxiety.
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 882
Quoting BahaHurican:
5-day's gotten better, though. If they put 7-day as their new output goal, it'll put pressure on them to tighten up the 5-day.
Considering the error margin for the 4-5 day track is 200-300 miles in any direction, I doubt they'd put out a 7 day track. Although as technology progresses and we continue to have a better handle on tropical cyclones, a 7 day track is almost inevitable in the future.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
5-day's gotten better, though. If they put 7-day as their new output goal, it'll put pressure on them to tighten up the 5-day.



Yup............Well; off to run errands,
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1190. Matt74
Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
why has it been such a crazy and active season so far? 7 storms already omg its crazy out there
It really hasn't been. Nothing can seem to get going for some reason. Eveyone has been saying that conditions are going to improve for some big storms but it just hasn't happened yet. Keep hearing 7-10 days every 7-10 days. I'll believe it when i see it. I'm no expert either just an observer so it's just my opinion.
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Quoting JLPR2:


It's huge but closed, needs time to tighten it a shrink a bit before becoming anything. But it should be tagged an invest soon.


Yeah, I agree.
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Quoting barotropic:


I agree.....no need to pay to much attention to anything outside a 5 day forecast. Actually TPC forecasts overall have gotten better. Of course that doesn't mean one cant follow and or have opinions of systems as they develop.


Exactly. Most of the good blog analysis and discussion (and where we all learn the most) is actually "guessing" the next model run or update from NHC based upon observations on satt loops and updates on the sites we monitor for data. Nothing wrong with swapping opinions then seeing who was right or closest when the NHC update, or, Dr. M's next post comes out.
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Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
they say that the african dust is filling in all over the atlantic over the next month
rookie mistake dont think so. as the waters warm the next couple wks there will be less dust
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Quoting cwf1069:

He's a troll, not an alarmist. And if you can, don't quote, as many people has it on ignore. Thank you.
I put him on ignore after that comment was made.
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1183. JLPR2
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Nice circulation considering the environment it is, but it really broad, really really broad.


It's huge but closed, needs time to tighten it and shrink a bit before becoming anything. But it should be tagged an invest soon.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
Ahhhh!! 93L is looking at me all weird.I'm married!!!

LoL
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1180. aquak9
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


What are those options? I could probably go higher but I wanted to get a boltek as well. Dr. Master recommended that I get one and I can make that integrate into the grid of lightning detectors.


We got Bolteck, Davis, Rainwise, wireless, cable, integrated...you name it.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
As we know, the models are going to flip back and forth but I think that the NHC 3 day track (based upon models as well with some human element variations) is the best we can do at the moment and what I follow at the end of the day. I was actually a bit surprised to see at the April Hurricane Conference in Atlanta that one of the areas of possible development at NHC is a good 7 Day track forecast.............I don't see how it is possible (an accurate one) and the 5 day is already tough to nail down. I am sure that it has something to do with the greater resolutions and additional data input they are looking at but just too many "Mother Nature" variables to consider outside of 3 days; 5 days might be a "heads up" at best.
5-day's gotten better, though. If they put 7-day as their new output goal, it'll put pressure on them to tighten up the 5-day.
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When dealing with trolls, remember

- Report
- Ignore
- Move on

Oh and for goodness sake's please stop quoting them.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The Smile:
Ahhhh!! 93L is looking at me all weird.I'm married!!!
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Quoting JLPR2:
Oceansat caught the CATL TW.


Nice circulation considering the environment it is, but it really broad, really really broad.
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
As we know, the models are going to flip back and forth but I think that the NHC 3 day track (based upon models as well with some human element variations) is the best we can do at the moment and what I follow at the end of the day. I was actually a bit surprised to see at the April Hurricane Conference in Atlanta that one of the areas of possible development at NHC is a good 7 Day track forecast.............I don't see how it is possible (an accurate one) and the 5 day is already tough to nail down. I am sure that it has something to do with the greater resolutions and additional data input they are looking at but just too many "Mother Nature" variables to consider outside of 3 days; 5 days might be a "heads up" at best.


I agree.....no need to pay to much attention to anything outside a 5 day forecast. Actually TPC forecasts overall have gotten better. Of course that doesn't mean one cant follow and or have opinions of systems as they develop.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Oceansat caught the CATL TW.




is the low close or not close at this time
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

The Smile:


Yup, that is it.
lol.
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1170. JLPR2
Oceansat caught the CATL TW.
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1169. cwf1069
Quoting washingtonian115:
stop being a damn alarmist.No it's not.

He's a troll, not an alarmist. And if you can, don't quote, as many people has it on ignore. Thank you.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Let us know if Fernanda starts creating her own moisture field.
.
And as far as 93L, please let it be a TD at 11(though my thoughts and prayers are with those in Central America). Let there be some talk of a TD at 11 at least. Louie The Lip is coming by tomorrow unless I get some income coming in.


Cosmic, as always you crack me up! lmao!! Hope all is well with you.
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Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
just want to be prepared in here in florida in case 93 comes this way as a cat 3 or 4 things change you know


Board up. Make sure your ferret has it's rabies shots. Tie the rocking chair to the top of the Yugo, and get out.
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Quoting WxLogic:
I guess you know where is going with this pattern setup:

If you watch the whole
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
1052. TropicalAnalystwx13 6:34 PM EDT on August 17, 2011

I understand what you are trying to illustrate (one model run several days out) but some folks on here (many) who have actually gone through a major cane and lost lives or property don't appreciate an alarmist post..................Wait until an NHC 3 day track is headed right for your house; then you can start freaking out.


Yep, the NHC has three days out pretty well nailed theses days.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1547
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Lot of popcorn convection firing around 93L's mid-level circulation.


The Smile:
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Lot of popcorn convection firing around 93L's mid-level circulation.

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93l is right on top of this buoy. Nothing but normal fluctuations.

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TROLL ALERT
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Okay, lets get something straight, since some of you people seem to have some kind of personal grudge on me or something. By no means am I wishing a hurricane on anybody, having been in SEVERAL (Floyd, Isabel, etc). And by no means am I "egging a system" on. I do not wish for anybody to have to go through the wind machines that they call hurricanes.

Some of you can stand up for me - You know I don't wish a hurricane on anybody, right?
Yes.That's JFV's job anyway.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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