Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting WxLogic:


Good deal... and now that you mention that. I have to be looking into doing the same very soon, but so far have been able to keep the solar panel going through frequent clean ups.


My solar panel is very cloudy so I have to keep changing that $10 batter in the Suite... havent done it in a while and that is why my station isnt reporting to wunderground. I also hate the software for it.. Im an end user and need simplicity.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


looks to be moving due west to me


Agree....
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Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Quoting kmanislander:
93L has hurt a lot of feelings. Always promising but never delivering.
I think it was best said by another member a couple of days ago. 93L is like the girl who lets you carry her books home everyday and then fails to show up on Friday night.
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Quoting WxLogic:


Good deal... and now that you mention that. I have to be looking into doing the same very soon, but so far have been able to keep the solar panel going through frequent clean ups.


I have a Davis Vantage Pro 2 that is hard wired and it has been superb. My home is two floors and built of concrete and steel throughout so wireless is not that great between floors.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
1255. WxLogic
18Z NGP @180HR

DLM
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1254. wn1995
I expect the NHC will at least mention the Eastern Atlantic disturbance at the 8 PM TWO, it has nice cyclonic turning associated with it and is firing off some convection.

93L continues to grow more organized despite the fact that it still most likely has no closed surface low, but i still think the NHC will go 40-50% on it given its increasing organization. Will see if it can ever work down to the surface, but I just don't see this intensifying much.

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Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
im really concerned more with the wave thats comming off africa next week the models say its gonna be a big storm and all eyes on the east coast should stay tunes in


Haven't you already mentioned that before?

*gets out a monster energy*
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1252. JLPR2
Quoting cwf1069:

Atlantic wave seems on it's way to be declared and invest. It's matching w/ the models and now just 3 and a half day of the leeward island. Everything is coming together at a time.


If the GFS verifies, it would be 4-5days away from me, pretty soon.
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Quoting aquak9:
D'fly, it's RainmanWeather, a WeatherUnderground approved vendor.

Boltek just started offering a really nice integrated system, too. Probably like WxLogc is talking about.


We get the friend discount dont we???
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Quoting stormpetrol:


I've learned to go with the flow and leave curiosity alone,( they say it killed the cat :), like the models or mostly everyone here lately I tend to be off on intensity, but I must say a few systems that some say wouldn't develop, I did! Take it as you may, no hard feelings intended.


But satisfaction brought it back.
*G*
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The NHC should outline the African wave we have been watching for a while soon.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Considering the error margin for the 4-5 day track is 200-300 miles in any direction, I doubt they'd put out a 7 day track. Although as technology progresses and we continue to have a better handle on tropical cyclones, a 7 day track is almost inevitable in the future.
IMO a big part of 5-day track problems is poor intensity forecasts. If and when they can nail intensity 3 days out, we'll see the 5-day tracks become more accurate.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Well, most people are better at forecasting track and whether or not a system will form than intensity, so :)


When did u start wanting to become a weather man.. me when i was four
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1245. cwf1069
Quoting JLPR2:
93L's spin has gotten nicer on the MIMIC loop, but it seems 93L is still a mid-level feature.


Atlantic wave seems on it's way to be declared and invest. It's matching w/ the models and now just 3 and a half day of the leeward island. Everything is coming together at a time.
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Quoting kmanislander:
93L has hurt a lot of feelings. Always promising but never delivering.


Good one!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1243. WxLogic
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I have a davis weather pro2 wireless... Maybe I should just replace the Solar panel and get the boltek


Good deal... and now that you mention that. I have to be looking into doing the same very soon, but so far have been able to keep the solar panel going through frequent clean ups.
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1242. Matt74
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Okay, lets get something straight, since some of you people seem to have some kind of personal grudge on me or something. By no means am I wishing a hurricane on anybody, having been in SEVERAL (Floyd, Isabel, etc). And by no means am I "egging a system" on. I do not wish for anybody to have to go through the wind machines that they call hurricanes.

Some of you can stand up for me - You know I don't wish a hurricane on anybody, right?
I think your one of the more knowledgable bloggers on here. Everything i've ever read that you post has never been about wishing a hurricane on anyone. jmo
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Quoting tropicfreak:


I see it too taz.


looks to be moving due west to me
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
1240. MTWX
Quoting scott39:
My daughter came home from School today and said "Daddy can you help me with homework"? I said "sure sweety what is it"? "I need help with some kind of weather models". "My History teacher is a hurricane NUT like you,and said that she would give some extra credit to whoever got the closest to where landfall would be in the US. NO JOKE!! So what would be the safest bet? FL.? I will be going to meet this History teacher! LOL

Nice!
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Quoting aquak9:


And you didn't share?? (runs to find M&M's)
Sorry Aquak you live in Florida.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


I've learned to go with the flow and leave curiosity alone,( they say it killed the cat :), like the models or mostly everyone here lately I tend to be off on intensity, but I must say a few systems that some say wouldn't develop, I did! Take it as you may, no hard feelings intended.


Well, most people are better at forecasting track and whether or not a system will form than intensity, so :)
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Quoting stormpetrol:


I've learned to go with the flow and leave curiosity alone,( they say it killed the cat :), like the models or mostly everyone here lately I tend to be off on intensity, but I must say a few systems that some say wouldn't develop, I did! Take it as you may, no hard feelings intended.


fair enough
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
1235. xcool
ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST AT
20/1800Z NEAR 15.0N 56.0W.

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Quoting Tazmanian:
is it me or is 93L pulling more and more N?


I see it too taz.
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Cosmic, as always you crack me up! lmao!! Hope all is well with you.
ty SP. I wish you well as well. I'll be fine healthwise as long as an extrasupercadjalisticexpeealidoushas-hypercane doesn't come my way.
Be safe.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Just curious but has there ever been a system that we were tracking that you have not taken the high end of the intensity forecast?


I've learned to go with the flow and leave curiosity alone,( they say it killed the cat :), like the models or mostly everyone here lately I tend to be off on intensity, but I must say a few systems that some say wouldn't develop, I did! Take it as you may, no hard feelings intended.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Quoting Matt74:
It really hasn't been. Nothing can seem to get going for some reason. Eveyone has been saying that conditions are going to improve for some big storms but it just hasn't happened yet. Keep hearing 7-10 days every 7-10 days. I'll believe it when i see it. I'm no expert either just an observer so it's just my opinion.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Don't pay much attention, they are used for guidance only, and are wrong quite a bit, especially since any landfall on the USA depicted on any model is over 10 days away.
8 days, per gfs, but who's counting.
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1229. aquak9
Quoting washingtonian115:
I had M&M brownies a few nights ago...And man were they good.(However i can't continue to eat them seeing that I'll soon gain weight).


And you didn't share?? (runs to find M&M's)
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Quoting WxLogic:


The options I have in mind are over 2K+... I would upgrade to a Davis Pro 2 and the Boltek system (which I happen to have one too).

I hope to have enough money someday to get the "big boys".


I have a davis weather pro2 wireless... Maybe I should just replace the Solar panel and get the boltek
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Quoting JFV2015:
I'm off to jamar, bloggers, be back shortly.
Don't come back.
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Quoting kmanislander:
93L has hurt a lot of feelings. Always promising but never delivering.


lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
1225. WxLogic
Quoting JLPR2:
Oceansat caught the CATL TW.


Enough to be classified as an INVEST in my book.
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Quoting JLPR2:
93L's spin has gotten nicer on the MIMIC loop, but it seems 93L is still a mid-level feature.



Wow look at that tropical wave in the central Atlantic.
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1223. ABlass
I've been a Dr. Master blog follower for a number of years and I just usually lurk...but... it sounds like I need to visit your lovely island again ... my last visit there was just before "Mitch" paid you a visit...
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70/75 MPH storm at 8PM PDT.
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1218. aquak9
D'fly, it's RainmanWeather, a WeatherUnderground approved vendor.

Boltek just started offering a really nice integrated system, too. Probably like WxLogc is talking about.
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i think the nhc will give us a 40% on93 l i agree with this and initiate 97l and then give it a 20%
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93L has hurt a lot of feelings. Always promising but never delivering.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
1215. WxLogic
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


What are those options? I could probably go higher but I wanted to get a boltek as well. Dr. Master recommended that I get one and I can make that integrate into the grid of lightning detectors.


The options I have in mind are over 2K+... I would upgrade to a Davis Pro 2 and the Boltek system (which I happen to have one too).

I hope to have enough money someday to get the "big boys".
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Quoting aquak9:
Come come, Giovanna...come see what I have on the counter. No need for lumber, no need for travel. Forget about the models for now...come have more brownies with me.
I had M&M brownies a few nights ago...And man were they good.(However i can't continue to eat them seeing that I'll soon gain weight).
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put the mode runs in the trsh can for 93L this is going a little more N then forcast
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114066
Quoting Tazmanian:


Those should scare away more than hurricanes! Soooooooo, I take it your guests don't stay long either. LOL

Post# 1153
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Just curious but has there ever been a system that we were tracking that you have not taken the high end of the intensity forecast?
Ummmm I've seen him give reasonable forecast.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.