Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
omg is 93L really red now thats horrible i pray for those in its path


Red doesn't mean how dangerous it is, it represents the chances for development.
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1309. Levi32
The pattern a week from now on the ensembles just continues to look more and more perfect for a southeast U.S. hurricane landfall with every run. The pattern is stunning and dangerous, regardless of whether this particular Cape Verde wave develops.

Again, we have the western U.S. ridge, which is the Texas ridge shifting westward, and then the Atlantic ridge building in from the east. There is a weakness in between which would serve to draw a potential storm towards the coast, but it is not a full-blown trough that would recurve such a storm east of land. Capping it all is a zonal (flat) flow across southern Canada with above-average heights, the signature of a landfall pattern.

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1308. Patrap
Squiggly thel radial lines.

O man,...I need a cold Fresca ASAP
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
Post it again, pls, Thel?
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93L 60%
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1304. MTWX
Absolutely fell in love with the sat loops on this site!! Thank you to whoever posted this link yesterday!!


Link
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Thanks, Thel....
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1302. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
15.71N/75.93W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
1301. MTWX
Quoting aquak9:


The RainWise is beefy, hardcore robust stuff. Had a 9 foot tall system in the living room before the WeatherFest here in Jax. But it comes at a price.

With Davis, you can run the gamut from a very simple, affordable VUE in up to the top-of-the-line system, which can be pushing a grand, depending on options.

Thank you for the information!
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Back by Popular demand! LOL

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Quoting gugi182:
NHC gives 10% to Tropical Wave off the southwest coast of the Cape Verde Islands this should be classified as Invest 97 right?



yes it sould be 97L some time tonight or in the AM
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
now they are saying that the entire atlantic is covered with african dust and that might prohibit any storm development for a few more weeks


Ummm who is saying what??

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1296. aquak9
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


How is the Rainwise equipment compared to Davis?


The RainWise is beefy, hardcore robust stuff. Had a 9 foot tall system in the living room before the WeatherFest here in Jax. But it comes at a price.

With Davis, you can run the gamut from a very simple, affordable VUE in up to the top-of-the-line system, which can be pushing a grand, depending on options.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1295. gugi182
NHC gives 10% to Tropical Wave off the southwest coast of the Cape Verde Islands this should be classified as Invest 97 right?
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Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
red? could it hit florida again?
No shot, unless it starts bobbing and weaving like a senior citizen returning from an eye appointment on I-95. Oy.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dont trust the mode runs for 93L


I agree, I learned that during Emily.
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Huh. 93L at code red and the CATL wave gets a mention. I'm kind of surprised at how giving that TWO was.
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Quoting MTWX:

I hear ya Dragonfly! I used to maintain the FMQ-19 here at Columbus, but now I maintain the WSR-88. Fun stuff to work on!


Im just a weather geek
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that was a big jump for 93L


from 40% to a high 60%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
1288. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
14.21N/36.43W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
dont trust the mode runs for 93L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
1286. MTWX
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I want a super Doppler but it too is out of my price range.

I hear ya Dragonfly! I used to maintain the FMQ-19 here at Columbus, but now I maintain the WSR-88. Fun stuff to work on!
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Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
red? could it hit florida again?


No not necessarily.
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Out for a while
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting MTWX:

So what would you guys with PWS's recommend? I've been thinking about setting one up myself. (would love to just install an FMQ-19, but don't have the $400k to do it lol)


I want a super Doppler but it too is out of my price range.
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93L has gone too red
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
Quoting JFV2015:


Asi mismo, sigue con ese mentalidad equivocada tuya, porque te veo muy, pero muy mal ahi. Sigue creyendo que no los afectara. Ahi llegaremos, hablaremos, manito

Hola compañero puede dejar de pretender ser alguien que no lo son. El JFV real es aquí, pero no eres tú.
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
Finally a mention, I thought it would come some time today, wonder when they will elevate it to invest status?



any time now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
Quoting Tazmanian:
93L up too 60%



Pre 97L got its first mention, 10%.
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Quoting xcool:
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH
Finally a mention, I thought it would come some time today, wonder when they will elevate it to invest status?
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93L up too 60%
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
Quoting aquak9:


All WU bloggers get a better discount.

RainmanWeather tries real hard to get everyone to upload their data to WU. We offer technical support from start to finish on that one.


How is the Rainwise equipment compared to Davis?
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1272. aquak9
Quoting MTWX:

So what would you guys with PWS's recommend? I've been thinking about setting one up myself. (would love to just install an FMQ-19, but don't have the $400k to do it lol)


Under $400? not sure, but most popular is the Davis Vantage Vue with Weatherlink software.

modified- under $400k?? oh go with Rainwise!
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Red alert on 93L.
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This was probably posted before.. but..

17/1745 UTC 15.5N 74.5W T2.0/2.0 93L -- Atlantic

It is kinda funny how some people were expecting this to develop around 30W and now it's approaching 80W without development XD
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1269. xcool
future 97L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1268. MTWX
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


My solar panel is very cloudy so I have to keep changing that $10 batter in the Suite... havent done it in a while and that is why my station isnt reporting to wunderground. I also hate the software for it.. Im an end user and need simplicity.

So what would you guys with PWS's recommend? I've been thinking about setting one up myself. (would love to just install an FMQ-19, but don't have the $400k to do it lol)
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I still remember the George forrescast and this next system is about the same IMO we in PR get the hurricane warning 48 hrs before the storm made landfall in the SE coast of the island.
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1266. xcool
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
000
ABNT20 KNHC 172330
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT FIND A
CLOSED CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS
ALONG THE COAST OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 750 MILES WEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115256
1264. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/INV/93L

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
1263. aquak9
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


We get the friend discount dont we???


All WU bloggers get a better discount.

RainmanWeather tries real hard to get everyone to upload their data to WU. We offer technical support from start to finish on that one.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
I think it was best said by another member a couple of days ago. 93L is like the girl who lets you carry her books home everyday and then fails to show up on Friday night.


It was sad earlier today with one blogger bemoaning that the HH was heading home, almost in disbelief. In fact when I posted that the aircraft was climbing out his crytic reply was " no its not" when it was. Funny how people get so emotionally wrapped up in these systems.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting WxLogic:
18Z NGP @180HR

DLM

If I am looking at that right it seems steering is similar to GFS, CMC and ECMWF right?
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Quoting WxLogic:


Good deal... and now that you mention that. I have to be looking into doing the same very soon, but so far have been able to keep the solar panel going through frequent clean ups.


My solar panel is very cloudy so I have to keep changing that $10 batter in the Suite... havent done it in a while and that is why my station isnt reporting to wunderground. I also hate the software for it.. Im an end user and need simplicity.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.