Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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93L is red, Soon-to-be 97L is finally yellow, and the HPC calls it to be near the Bahamas next week. If that becomes Irene, deja-vu, and it has the chance to become worse category-wise.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

IF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING TROF FROM THE
ATLANTIC...IT WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL ACTIVITY TO AFFECT
THE SE COAST OF THE LOWER 48 BEYOND A WEEKS TIME. HPC AND NHC WILL
BE FOLLOWING A WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...EXPECTING IT TO BE SOMEWHERE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. PLEASE STAY CURRENT ON NHC DISCUSSIONS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
Geez... even HPC is jumping on the bandwagon....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
evening everyone...looks like 93L is trying to do a little something...does look to be tracking w/wnw..didn't someone say something this morning about it could follow the UL?? if so, it might be lining up for a field goal try and shoot for the uprights...time will tell still alot of open water left for it..
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Awesome lightning in Naples, Florida.
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Quoting Patrap:
Squiggly thel radial lines.

O man,...I need a cold Fresca ASAP


It's a great way to get non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Not really that much difference than drinking booze. :)

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1353. Patrap
More folks died in the Evacuation of Houston before RITA than the Storm claimed in Lives.

So I'd maybe consider that before jumping to, er, a conclusion.







EVACUATION
Lessons come at high cost: 107 lives
By CINDY HORSWELL and EDWARD HEGSTROM Copyright 2005 Houston Chronicle
Sept. 29, 2005, 4:59PM


Read more: http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/topfront/33744 68.html#ixzz1VKpE004S
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129908
anyways, i'm going back to bed, to cold for my old body.
59.2°F heading for a high of........... 66°F
catch ya's later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Something bloggers and prognosticators here may want to keep in mind as the season progresses is that only a small portion of the decision to invest a particular feature has to do with its LOOKS. As seen today with 93L, systems can look great but not actually "be" well organized enough to merit a TCFA. Additionally, one must keep in mind the conditions likely to impact the system in the next 48 hours. No matter how wonderful it looks, if there's dry air/dust/shear/low TCHP/ULL ahead of a system, the feature will have a low formation probability.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1349. 7544
Quoting tropicfreak:


I see it too taz.


maybe 93l will pull a wilma track if it could get further north into the gom by gthat time a trof will be comiong down in the mid states and push it ne could happen if it slows down in foward speed right
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Quoting stormpetrol:
93L pulling more WNW now, not good , alot more time over those warm waters!
what would be pulling it to the wnw? tia
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says:

AL, 93, 2011081800, , BEST, 0, 153N, 765W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Not bad pressure readings!
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1346. Dennis8
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011/

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER VERY WARM AFTERNOON TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY REACHED OR EXCEEDED 100 DEGREES
AS OF 3PM...INCLUDING INTERCONTINENTAL AIRPORT. THIS EXTENDS THE
STREAK OF CONSECUTIVE 100 DEGREE DAYS IN HOUSTON TO 17.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR
WEST. A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST BUT SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANYTHING BUT
ISOLATED CONVECTION. HAVE BROUGHT TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS WESTWARD INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
. 38
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
ATCF says:

AL, 93, 2011081800, , BEST, 0, 153N, 765W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MTWX:

If it makes that turn, lets just hope it's not another Don...


If it does impact Texas it will be a little stronger and be more widespread.

Exactly what they need.
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1340. MTWX
Quoting tropicfreak:


Looks like hope isn't completely lost for Texas after all.

If it makes that turn, lets just hope it's not another Don...
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1339. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
HPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

IF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING TROF FROM THE
ATLANTIC...IT WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL ACTIVITY TO AFFECT
THE SE COAST OF THE LOWER 48 BEYOND A WEEKS TIME. HPC AND NHC WILL
BE FOLLOWING A WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...EXPECTING IT TO BE SOMEWHERE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. PLEASE STAY CURRENT ON NHC DISCUSSIONS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.


Nrt... you don't waste time.
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Quoting msphar:
I am surprised the disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic has been declared an invest by now. Perhaps its the bigness of its structure or the sense of rotation, it just looks significant to me.
Wasn't much rush before 35W unless it was going to get a lot higher 48-hr formation probability percentage... Also, prolly watching for the "fizz" syndrome, seen most recently w/ 93l, and finally just wasn't in the "immenent formation" category before now because of the SAL / dry air still predominant in the EATL.
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1337. msphar
Sorry meant has NOT been declared an invest yet. Your interpretation is correct.
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Quoting watchingnva:
- & ! Then ignore \: D/ ... Lol

How's everyone doing tonight


I'm doing great.

BTW have you stepped outside this evening? It feels gorgeous!
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93L pulling more WNW now, not good , alot more time over those warm waters!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
- & ! Then ignore \: D/ ... Lol

How's everyone doing tonight
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1333. WxLogic
18Z HWRF on 93L and a sneak peak at P17L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
HPC Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

IF UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING TROF FROM THE
ATLANTIC...IT WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL ACTIVITY TO AFFECT
THE SE COAST OF THE LOWER 48 BEYOND A WEEKS TIME. HPC AND NHC WILL
BE FOLLOWING A WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...EXPECTING IT TO BE SOMEWHERE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. PLEASE STAY CURRENT ON NHC DISCUSSIONS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting msphar:
I am surprised the disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic has been declared an invest by now. Perhaps its the bigness of its structure or the sense of rotation, it just looks significant to me.



Do you mean hasn't been declared an invest?

Sure would look threatening to me.
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1329. angiest
Between what Levi posted and what was posted earlier from euro, it looks rather like the entire bsin could be opening except possibly the NE US.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Looks like hope isn't completely lost for Texas after all.


Kind of a rock vs hard place choice, though...
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1327. msphar
I am surprised the disturbance in the Eastern Atlantic has been declared an invest by now. Perhaps its the bigness of its structure or the sense of rotation, it just looks significant to me.
Or perhaps its the upwind aspect.
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[looks at Levi's posts re: mean high etc.]

[BIG sigh]

I guess I better stock up on corned beef.... I'm not big on tuna patties....
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Had to run into Town, back and see 93L at 60% , Totally agree!!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
1321. WxLogic
Quoting Levi32:
The pattern a week from now on the ensembles just continues to look more and more perfect for a southeast U.S. hurricane landfall with every run. The pattern is stunning and dangerous, regardless of whether this particular Cape Verde wave develops.

Again, we have the western U.S. ridge, which is the Texas ridge shifting westward, and then the Atlantic ridge building in from the east. There is a weakness in between which would serve to draw a potential storm towards the coast, but it is not a full-blown trough that would recurve such a storm east of land. Capping it all is a zonal (flat) flow across southern Canada with above-average heights, the signature of a landfall pattern.



Looks to be the case as we get closer to next week.
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Quoting Progster:


Looks like the mid level circulation of 93L is tracking a little N of W. Maybe a northern Belize landfall? Of course anything can happen :)


Looks like hope isn't completely lost for Texas after all.
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1319. angiest
As the poet almost said, "Ask not for whom the bell trolls, it trolls for thee."
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Red alert on 93L.


Looks like the mid level circulation of 93L is tracking a little N of W. Maybe a northern Belize landfall? Of course anything can happen :)
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Not surprised by the 10% on the EATL Twave... prolly bump it tomorrow if it continues to look good and bump it again on Friday. Saturday should put it near 45-50W.... that's when we need to be looking out. But they had to put something, since by Tuesday some of the ECar islands could be looking at effects.

On 93L, 60% is a bit more than I expected at this point. As petrel keeps pointing out 93L is going into an area where there is high potential for rapid organization and intensification. I'm still not convinced environmental conditions overall have changed enough to give this a run at Cat 1 status before reaching Central America, but formation into a TD or TS isn't certainly quite possible.

It would be great if this newest player in the ATL would just .... fizzle... but I'm not expecting it to. Should make for an interesting few days until Monday...
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1316. Levi32
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I'm not really used to looking at that sort of layout. If possible, could you post an image of the same type that shows setup for recurvatures as an example?


They don't archive those maps, unfortunately. The colors on them represent 500mb height anomalies, and I can show you a map of the same kind of anomalies that supports lots of recurving storms east of the United States. We need only go back to last year:

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1315. WxLogic
10% for P17L... soon to be 97L.

KEEPER... posted it so removing the redundancy.
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1314. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting Levi32:
The pattern a week from now on the ensembles just continues to look more and more perfect for a southeast U.S. hurricane landfall with every run. The pattern is stunning and dangerous, regardless of whether this particular Cape Verde wave develops.

Again, we have the western U.S. ridge, which is the Texas ridge shifting westward, and then the Atlantic ridge building in from the east. There is a weakness in between which would serve to draw a potential storm towards the coast, but it is not a full-blown trough that would recurve such a storm east of land. Capping it all is a zonal (flat) flow across southern Canada with above-average heights, the signature of a landfall pattern.



Wow I'd better watch out here in VA.
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Quoting Levi32:
The pattern a week from now on the ensembles just continues to look more and more perfect for a southeast U.S. hurricane landfall with every run. The pattern is stunning and dangerous, regardless of whether this particular Cape Verde wave develops.



I'm not really used to looking at that sort of layout. If possible, could you post an image of the same type that shows setup for recurvatures as an example?
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1311. WxLogic
Quoting kmanislander:


I have a Davis Vantage Pro 2 that is hard wired and it has been superb. My home is two floors and built of concrete and steel throughout so wireless is not that great between floors.


I'm happy with it too. It has lasted quite a bit, but can't go wrong with a wired setup... as it has its advantages.
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Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
omg is 93L really red now thats horrible i pray for those in its path


Red doesn't mean how dangerous it is, it represents the chances for development.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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