Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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That is one big wave in the CATL.
Link

mid-August in the tropics wow.
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actually...Jack Daniels is the perfect disaster supply food....never goes bad...
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Quoting twincomanche:
Oh I do, I just think this blog needs to be cleaned up from the nit wits. I obviously have no problem with off topic stuff being guilty of this on a regular basis. I just have a problem with the ding dong people and they could be stopped. I don't have anyone on ignore since I want to see what's happening however I still think this would be a more pleasant experience if admin would block the twits.


Nonsense. You're not going to miss anything by iggying people who have nothing to say to begin with. You have the power, and by not using it you have no right to complain.
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1457. Patrap
Been not so bad as of late Zoo,,High's mid 90's I can Live with,,and the rains have come some as well.

But we still in D-3/4 here as well.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
1456. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The National Hurricane Center made the right choice for 93L...High chance of development by Friday night. I'm glad they gave the tropical wave in the central Atlantic a yellow circle also, because we really need to watch it.


You can still see it without the yellow circle.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25458
Fernanda has undoubtedly strengthened, well at least, in my opinion.

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Quoting cloudburst2011:



well a ull is possibly affectin it now and also its slowing in forward speed ...that could change direcons...its definitely moving wnw now...looks like its headed n of belize...


looks like its heading for the N coast of belize now via floater. Riding right along 15.8 or so. Oddly new 18z runs all take it south of west.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, zoo... was actually thinking about stocking up on Ice Cream... get it in the freezer, down to the bottom, like tomorrow.... so it gets SUPER hard.... then live in hopes I can eat it slow.... lol


You know what I don't like about this time of the year? Everything I do, I have to stop and think what would happen if we get a hurricane...

Wanted to plant a new garden, thought that's silly it will just blow away. Got new things for the patio -- hmm -- something else to bring in. Going to stock up the freezer? what if the generator croaks if we get a hurricane.

Gets old.
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1450. Patrap
Well..in a FEMA conference call last week,the Texas Emg Mgrs were seriously worried about having to Evacuate the Lower coast away from a "Major" Hurricane Threat and the numbers that they gave on possible Heat related Deaths and other, was, well HIGH.

Food fer thought as we slam face furst into da meat of the Season in the Basin.

Have a Plan

Review your plan.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Hurricane Greg, the sixth hurricane of the 2011 Pacific hurricane season:

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A little insight to NHC thinking of the central atlantic wave

Marine Weather Discussion

Excerpt:

NEXT MAJOR CHANGES TO AFFECT THIS ZONE WILL BE SEEN WHEN A LARGE E ATLC TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRES SYSTEM ENTER THE ZONE ON SAT. IT IS FORECAST TO THEN
REACH TO NEAR 16N61W SUN...AND TO NEAR 18N66W PER THE AFTERNOON
HPC/NHC MEDIUM RANGE CONFERENCE CALL. THESE POINTS ARE A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN 12 UTC GFS MODEL RUN.

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Quoting ncstorm:


dont do that to us Press..LOL!


Ya know what? I was in Charlotte a couple weeks ago....and I gotta say....that's a really great city...I was very impressed...
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Quoting Patrap:
Hello dere zoomiami


Hot & muggy in your neck of the woods? Wanted to come to visit but figured we would go some place that might be a few degrees cooler, too much hot & muggy here.
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Quoting presslord:
yea...I'm kinda stoopid....but I mean well....


so the stoopid circle is on your head today? lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7397
Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane # 7


EP, 07, 2011081800, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1075W, 65, 987, HU


6th hurricane:

* Adrian (1)
* Beatriz (2)
* Calvin (3)
* Dora (4)
* Eugene (5)
* Fernanda (NOT a hurricane)
* Greg (6)
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1442. scott39
Quoting scott39:
I usually refrain from commenting on garbage like your post, BUT WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU???? People DIED trying to get to saftey and your going to have the nerve to make a moronic comment like that. I wish I was face to face with you right now buddy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yea you just hit a VERY RAW PERSONAL NERVE!!!!!!!!!!!!
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yea...I'm kinda stoopid....but I mean well....
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1440. ncstorm
Quoting presslord:


Asheville, North carolina


dont do that to us Press..LOL!
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Quoting zoomiami:


bought a bunch of hot dogs today & have the grill -- that works
Hey, zoo... was actually thinking about stocking up on Ice Cream... get it in the freezer, down to the bottom, like tomorrow.... so it gets SUPER hard.... then live in hopes I can eat it slow.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
1437. Patrap
Hello dere zoomiami
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
1436. scott39
Quoting twincomanche:
Sorry I think that article is mostly dreck. A bunch if not most of those people probably would have died in that period of time anyway. That article is junk science at it's worst if it is claiming any demographic accuracy.
I usually refrain from commenting on garbage like your post, BUT WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU???? People DIED trying to get to saftey and your going to have the nerve to make a moronic comment like that. I wish I was face to face with you right now buddy!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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hurricane # 7


EP, 07, 2011081800, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1075W, 65, 987, HU
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114776
TROPICAL UPDATE 7:30PM 8-17-11:

93L continues to diminish in the Central Carribean as it is getting sheared apart by two ULL to the SW and NW. No development expected as it continues to move toward the Nicaraguan coast and arrive late tomorrow or early Friday.

Elsewhere no significant development is expected of the wave in the Central Atlantic 750 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. It is surrounded by significant dry air to it's North and West which will limit development and it will eventually encounter unfavorable upper level winds which will tear the sytem apart in about 3 days.

Elsewhere no t=other threats exist for the next 7 to 14 days.
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So, we have Hurricane Greg. It is up to Fernanda to see if the EPAC hurricane streak will be broken.
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1432. Patrap
Quoting ncstorm:


I'm sure gatorade was everywhere..


: )
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
Quoting Patrap:


Me tinks press meant in a roundabout way that u can send that thought to wunderblogadmin with the wu-mail system.

But then agin press's logic can be atad kinky.


hmm expecting logic --- that may not be logical

hey Pat
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cloudburst2011

Quoting sarahjola:
can anyone answer this or is it too far out to even answer? what could possible turn 93l to the wnw? tia



well a ull is possibly affectin it now and also its slowing in forward speed ...that could change direcons...its definitely moving wnw now...looks like its headed n of belize...


didn't either levi or reed, or I know someone said something this morning that it could follow the ULL??
i mean they sometimes do just didn't know if they always do or not..
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1428. Patrap
Quoting twincomanche:
All I have is a note from Agua.???


Me tinks press meant in a roundabout way that u can send that thought to wunderblogadmin with the wu-mail system.

But then agin press's logic can be atad kinky.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127664
1427. Hhunter
Bastardi--threat to florida and south east very real from strong hurricane...fl, ga , sc

check your hurricane preparedness plan



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In the EPAC, Greg's now a hurricane:

EP, 07, 2011081800, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1075W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GREG, D,
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1425. ncstorm
Quoting Patrap:


JB must have Fainted over at weatherbell.com, seeing dat un.


I'm sure gatorade was everywhere..
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



well a ull is possibly affectin it now and also its slowing in forward speed ...that could change direcons...its definitely moving wnw now...looks like its headed n of belize...
thanks so much
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Quoting JFV2015:
PressLord, I'm off to the Carolinas, where you live at?


Asheville, North carolina
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The National Hurricane Center made the right choice for 93L...High chance of development by Friday night. I'm glad they gave the tropical wave in the central Atlantic a yellow circle also, because we really need to watch it.
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Quoting sarahjola:
can anyone answer this or is it too far out to even answer? what could possible turn 93l to the wnw? tia

It would really need to start strengthening to be pulled further North, right now it is not likely.
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Quoting twincomanche:
I have a wish. I wish admin would get on here early evening for a few days and smite these trolls. Maybe the rest of the evening would be less annoying if they got these jerks off of here.


And all this time, I thought you knew how to use the report, (-), and ignore buttons. Silly me.
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Quoting twincomanche:
I have a wish. I wish admin would get on here early evening for a few days and smite these trolls. Maybe the rest of the evening would be less annoying if they got these jerks off of here.


check out the upper right corner of the page and click on the little red button which says 'mail'...
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1414. WxLogic
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I think the TWO nailed both 93L and the tropical wave in the CATL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting twincomanche:
You do understand that even if the coast gets it bad most of Texas would be thrilled if a hurricane came ashore. The drought is costing them a huge amount of money and within reason any damage would be offset by the good the moisture would bring. Texas landfalls rarely lead to loss of life since Texans have sense enough to evacuate.


Let's hope reason prevails with any Texas landfall then.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
[looks at Levi's posts re: mean high etc.]

[BIG sigh]

I guess I better stock up on corned beef.... I'm not big on tuna patties....


bought a bunch of hot dogs today & have the grill -- that works
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.