Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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WSW movement of 93L beginning I believe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


You can still see it without the yellow circle.
Budget cut time. NHC. Yellow circles.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1508. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


Yes it does. If it misses the dry air, it does have a chance.


They both could miss most of the dry air.



Looks like they want to develop both.

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
1507. scott39
I apolojize to the blog for the outburst.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6857
1506. aquak9
WxLogic- shhhhhh.....there's nothing out there, there's nothing out there, there's nothing out there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JFV2015:
Presslord, why would you insinuate that I would get into potential legal hot-water? I would never do such a thing, I'm a good, law-abiding U.S citizen of our nation, I'm a respectable and well behaved young man, sir.
\

good grief...it was just banal chatter...it's simply what Southerners do....has no deeper meaning...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
Enough enerygy for a big Cat Storm.......

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
Now this is a picture that's making me feel a little more confident about a TCFA on 93L... not happier, mind u....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22305


Whoever said 93L looked great on Satellite and terrible on Vort. wasn't lying.

Looks to be a click north of due west, but just a click.
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 637
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I remember we would listen to the short wave radio for the SHIPS reports. (In those days, there really were ships out there.) We would use, those plastic triangle things and draw the lines. We used to have bets who came the closest to where it was going next. Then the took all the fun out of it with satellites.
Well jeez....I don't quite remember not having satellite... You really are ancient....lol
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1499. Patrap
Quoting MTWX:

Yeah, but drinking it in warm Coke gets old real fast!


OMG, dats a serious offense,,I think maybe a Felony in Louisiana.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
1498. Thrawst


Well, well well... what do we have here? Windfinder follows the GFS model, and turns the data into a wind prediction. It shows the central Atlantic wave becoming a hurricane and affecting Nassau, Bahamas... starting on Wednesday, August 24, 2011. I take this for a grain of salt... and it may or may not happen. Interesting to say the least. The units are in Knots... and the numbers at the bottom is the Pressure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1497. ncstorm
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:
Below are recent Joe Bastardi comments. I don't know where he gets this infomation but there is NOTHING evident of this in the modeling.

Monday, August 15, 2011
Hurricane Frenzy Coming???

According to tropical expert Joe Bastardi, the next 2-4 weeks will see a "hurricane frenzy" that could have as many as 5-6 hurricanes striking the U.S. mainland. Why? According to Joe, the MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation of upper air motion) will be in the favorable (rising air motion) mode beginning as early as this weekend. What does it mean for us? Hopefully everyone has their hurricane plan (to stay or leave) in place and you'll know what to do based on the track of the storm. I give you this alert not to scare you, but to prepare you to be ready in case a bad storm gets into the Gulf. At the moment, there is NOTHING we need to worry about for the central gulf coast region since the persistent pattern of Central plains ridging with east coast troughing will last for the next 7-10 days protecting us. However, it's too soon to know how long that protection will last.



he is counting every wave on africa right now as a hurricane and striking the US? that is a bold forecast and wrong one at that..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1496. WxLogic
P17L is no joke... if it keeps being stacked the way it is now... it will be a troublesome one once it encounters a better environment for development past 50W:

850MB:


500MB:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Yes, I remember we would listen to the short wave radio for the SHIPS reports. (In those days, there really were ships out there.) We would use, those plastic triangle things and draw the lines. We used to have bets who came the closest to where it was going next. Then the took all the fun out of it with satellites.


Lord, you take me back....I can remember doin' exactly that at my Grandfather's house....
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1494. Grothar
Quoting emcf30:


Is that your cousin Vinny?


LOL.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
1mb lower with 93L.

AL, 93, 2011081800, , BEST, 0, 153N, 765W, 25, 1009, DB,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1492. Grothar
Quoting Abacosurf:
Sure can...remember plotting hurricanes on paper grocery sacs....


Yes, I remember we would listen to the short wave radio for the SHIPS reports. (In those days, there really were ships out there.) We would use, those plastic triangle things and draw the lines. We used to have bets who came the closest to where it was going next. Then the took all the fun out of it with satellites.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
Quoting zoomiami:


You know what I don't like about this time of the year? Everything I do, I have to stop and think what would happen if we get a hurricane...

Wanted to plant a new garden, thought that's silly it will just blow away. Got new things for the patio -- hmm -- something else to bring in. Going to stock up the freezer? what if the generator croaks if we get a hurricane.

Gets old.
One of my aunts died. So now one of the considerations is... well, will there be a hurricane the day of the funeral??? Sheesh.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22305
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


6th hurricane:

* Adrian (1)
* Beatriz (2)
* Calvin (3)
* Dora (4)
* Eugene (5)
* Fernanda (NOT a hurricane)
* Greg (6)
YET!!!

LOL

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22305
Quoting Grothar:
The wave emerging looks very healthy



Yes it does. If it misses the dry air, it does have a chance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1487. emcf30
Quoting presslord:


call me if ya get into trouble...my cousin is a lawyer up there...


Is that your cousin Vinny?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The United States starship has its shields up at full power Captain. We are invulnerable to all Klingon Hurricane weapons. Full throttle Warp Factor 6!
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
1485. MTWX
Quoting presslord:
actually...Jack Daniels is the perfect disaster supply food....never goes bad...

Yeah, but drinking it in warm Coke gets old real fast!
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
1483. Grothar
The wave emerging looks very healthy

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26410
Northern Haiti under the blob:
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My blog on 93L and the Atlantic wave.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1479. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128616
Below are recent Joe Bastardi comments. I don't know where he gets this infomation but there is NOTHING evident of this in the modeling.

Monday, August 15, 2011
Hurricane Frenzy Coming???

According to tropical expert Joe Bastardi, the next 2-4 weeks will see a "hurricane frenzy" that could have as many as 5-6 hurricanes striking the U.S. mainland. Why? According to Joe, the MJO (Madden-Jullian Oscillation of upper air motion) will be in the favorable (rising air motion) mode beginning as early as this weekend. What does it mean for us? Hopefully everyone has their hurricane plan (to stay or leave) in place and you'll know what to do based on the track of the storm. I give you this alert not to scare you, but to prepare you to be ready in case a bad storm gets into the Gulf. At the moment, there is NOTHING we need to worry about for the central gulf coast region since the persistent pattern of Central plains ridging with east coast troughing will last for the next 7-10 days protecting us. However, it's too soon to know how long that protection will last.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


You can still see it without the yellow circle.
Sure can...remember plotting hurricanes on paper grocery sacs....
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1476. aquak9
Quoting Grothar:


You can still see it without the yellow circle.

see what? :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twincomanche:
We are having a failure to communicate. Just cause I read them doesn't mean I respond. I am a big believer in ignoring people but I don't have to push a button to do that.


parenting two teenagers taught me that skill
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
I believe that 93L will become a tropical depression or storm Friday.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
the next hurricane down the pike looks to be impressive from all models..... cant wait to see it.
although i wish it on no one.
after ive seen andrew, katrina, rita, gustav. i dont really care to ride another one out
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:
In the EPAC, Greg's now a hurricane:

EP, 07, 2011081800, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1075W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 0, 0, 1008, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GREG, D,
Not at all surprised... this was looking like potential hurricane since before they tagged it, IMO.

Also IMO this puts the nail in the coffin of hurricane chances for 93L.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22305
Quoting JFV2015:




I'm traveling up to Myrtle Beach for a weekend.


call me if ya get into trouble...my cousin is a lawyer up there...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1469. Thrawst
Quoting 7544:
cantwait to see the runs for pre 97l should be a fun one to track


"fun" is relative. I live in the Bahamas, and I don't have good feelings about this sucker.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


You can still see it without the yellow circle.


haha, very funny Gro :P
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32249
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1464. das8929
18Z GFS ensembles

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Fernanda has undoubtedly strengthened, well at least, in my opinion.



65 mph probably might make itgoodness know how many straigh canes
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Quoting 7544:


totaly agrree that one has fla written all over it and other states thats the one to watch

as for 93l the way the trofs are this year nothing will surpise me wait watch and see but al in all a good few weeks coming up in the tropics stay tuned
Every time somebody posts something like this, I immediately get a mental picture of the Khaddafi pin-striped suit with his name repeated as the lines.... lol
f f f f
l l l l
o o o o
r r r r
i i i i
d d d d
a a a a


Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22305
That is one big wave in the CATL.
Link

mid-August in the tropics wow.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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