Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
WNW?
Looks that way, but looks can be deceiving.
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
1609. MTWX
Quoting hcubed:


All depends what era, so under the old, I was T30391 when I retired, but heard that they re-numbered to 2E0X1.

It got renumbered again after the 2E0X1... It is now 3D1X5.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yes, but you also complained about language and then quoted the language. KOG took it down right away.


Apologize, I just modified my comment.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting Levi32:
The pattern a week from now on the ensembles just continues to look more and more perfect for a southeast U.S. hurricane landfall with every run. The pattern is stunning and dangerous, regardless of whether this particular Cape Verde wave develops.

Again, we have the western U.S. ridge, which is the Texas ridge shifting westward, and then the Atlantic ridge building in from the east. There is a weakness in between which would serve to draw a potential storm towards the coast, but it is not a full-blown trough that would recurve such a storm east of land. Capping it all is a zonal (flat) flow across southern Canada with above-average heights, the signature of a landfall pattern.




So the big question is, how reliable are these models for this duration?

And anyone can reply to this ....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1606. xcool
Global computer models have been hinting for 5 days now that there could possibly be a future tropical storm or hurricane affecting the southeastern US late next week or by the weekend. Too early to be more specific, and long range models don't have a lot of skill with tropical systems Stay tuned. we're watching. Follow me on twitter: richthomaswsfa


Rich Thomas meterologist out of Montgomery posted
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1605. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting mcluvincane:
Damn Keeper, didn't expect that type of wording from you.
that guy just brings out the worse sorry

sorry to the board

i removed it in less than 40 seconds

iam a man if its deservant of a bann so be it
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54635
Hello all I am a long time blog watcher. I just want to say I remember last year models doing the same thing especially the GFS on a few occasions blowing up a storm and showing a Florida/La/North South Carolina hit. As the time gets closer the sameeee thing happens it either blows up and goes out to sea or doesnt even develop and comes into an area as just a rain event. I just wish the United States would get hit once and I do not mean from a major. I mean something small like a cat 1 because I am really starting to believe we have some kind of weather device, and I want to be proved wrong!
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1603. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1600. Patrap
I sure liked it better when we used post #'s for a quote or reference..


Hitting the modify does not remove the original post from the server head, only our view.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:


The main reason why I quoted him was because I didn't want him to feed the trolls.


Yes, but you also complained about language and then quoted the language. KOG took it down right away.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1598. Grothar
Quoting twincomanche:
We just allow you seniors a little extra slack when you say annoying things. LOL


Thanks, twin. And you used the word "twit" in one of your posts. That is my word. I had is tradmarked. :)
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26555
Quoting FLdewey:
Everyone playing the tropicfreak "don't quote such and such" game - take a drink.


I'm only quoting this in hopes it will offend someone...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1595. Patrap
Well fo sho someone is going to be on,er,.."Vacation" fer a spell fer dat un.

Maybe longer.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting twincomanche:
His post is already blocked. We wouldn't even know what he said if you hadn't quoted him.


Apologize, didn't catch that curse word, until I posted.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
if 93 does not slow down it is going to run out of water and go boom poof on Central America.
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1592. xcool


18z GFS ensembles
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1590. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting FLdewey:


The point looks to be around September 10th.
naw dewey sorry got to disagree expect the first of many after the 20th onward till o lets say sept 21 then a little break follow up with a couple of screamers to usher in the fall then we are done with a little break called winter but don't worry its really not that long
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54635
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
1579. tropicfreak

So you quote it?


The main reason why I quoted him was because I didn't want him to feed the trolls.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1588. hcubed
Quoting MTWX:

They have. They also have civilianized the career field. I was a METNAV/Airfield Systems tech when I was active duty.


All depends what era, so under the old, I was T30391 when I retired, but heard that they re-numbered to 2E0X1.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks like it.

Interesting...

Should slow down tomorrow, assuming this doesn't change by then.
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1586. MTWX
Quoting presslord:

got nuttin'

try regular email, my WU mail doesnt seem to be working at the moment.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
Damn Keeper, didn't expect that type of wording from you.
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1355
1583. Grothar
Nice swirl

Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26555
1579. tropicfreak

So you quote it?
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1580. scott39
Quoting scott39:
The In-laws had just left, that was the problem was. Make a preacher cuss. LOL
" what the" I need another beer!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
Keeper

Don't feed the trolls (aka JFV)

Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting tropicfreak:


Please don't quote him, he has no idea what he's talking about. I've added him to my ignore list.


10-4 Just signed on. Looks like next week we will have all the trolls out in full force. Good time to get them all together and put all on ignore
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1355
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
WNW?


Looks like it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1576. scott39
Quoting Grothar:


FLOOD! Der Hund. Long time to see. Just a few little squabbles tonight. An insult here and there and some apologies. You know like a night with the in-laws.
The In-laws had just left, that was the problem was. Make a preacher cuss. LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
1573. MTWX
Quoting hcubed:


Wow, another radar troop.

When I was in, just worked on the ASR/PAR. Taught the TPX-42 at Keesler.

They've consolidated the radar field, haven't they? Combined all the Ground radar fields?

They have. They also have civilianized the career field. I was a METNAV/Airfield Systems tech when I was active duty.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1393
WNW?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
@HurricaneSwirl: I think the vorticity maps are messed up after looking at them again. They also say that Greg's vorticity has weakened when it obviously hasn't, so...I'd consider it unreliable right now.
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Quoting mcluvincane:


Last I checked the models can't talk


Please don't quote him, he has no idea what he's talking about. I've added him to my ignore list.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
What happened to 93L's 850mb vort?

15 hours ago:


Now:


I don't know, but weakening and elongating vorticity is usually a sign of a weakening system. The National Hurricane Center thinks otherwise, giving 93L a 60% chance for development up from 40%.

Hmmm...
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Quoting MTWX:

Press... mail...

got nuttin'
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492
1563. Grothar
Quoting Floodman:
Yeah, but you have to mash 'em just right Baha...
I see press in here causing trouble; nothing new there...Grothar, was ist los?


FLOOD! Der Hund. Long time to see. Just a few little squabbles tonight. An insult here and there and some apologies. You know like a night with the in-laws.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26555
1562. JNCali

Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
the models also said that wind shear is building again all over the atlantic and carribean over the next 4 weeks maybe we wont have a storm
Heidi Klum says.... "de wethur eez vundebahhhhh on deh beech for beekeenees..yaa?!
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Quoting FLdewey:
SKA-BLAM!



What's your point?!
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10492

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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