Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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1660. Patrap
Quoting twincomanche:
I have a friend who occasionally imbibes a bit too much. his theory is he doesn't remember it it didn't happen. I claim senior citizenry.


Nixon?

I thought he passed?


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
Quoting FLdewey:


Look kid (if you really are a kid) you can quit telling me what to do. It's just not happening.

If you're saying you no longer demand people don't quote people on your ignore list, ya did it 10 minutes ago.

Relax.

You make a bigger scene than any troll here. Just ignore who you feel you need to ignore and leave it.

Good thing I have you on ignore so I can't see this.
TIA (or so)
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1658. palmpt
Quoting Tazmanian:
i cant wait for are 1st usa land falling hurricane
Ease up taz!
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Quoting flwthrfan:

Best post of the day!! Truly made me laugh!


It was not, very offending to me. I really don't like getting criticized and made fun of on this blog. We can joke around, but if you think your joke will offend someone, don't say it.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Yes, but you also complained about language and then quoted the language. KOG took it down right away.


What happened to " Move on?"
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1654. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting presslord:


This is a tropics blog!!! Not a dancing blog....for God's sake...please try to stay focused...
put on the dress that will keep everyone focus hey why not have gro drop by give us a little dance maybe people would pay money to see that
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1652. JLPR2
Quoting mrsalagranny:
JLPR can you tell me what that is showing?Dont know how to read them.TIA


The GFS ensembles show an area of low pressure(CATL Wave) over southwestern Puerto Rico in 108hrs. Also seems like a building high north of it with a trof coming off the NE US coast which should give this system the chance to mostly miss Hispaniola.
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1650. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127701
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: During the month of August, we have already seen three named storms - Emily, Franklin, and Gert. So, how many more named storms will we see before 12:00 AM September 1?

A. No more named storms
B. 1 named storm
C. 2 named storms
D. 3 named storms
E. 4 named storms or more

----

I think we'll see four named storms for the remainder of this month - One from 93L, one from pre-97L, and the others idk.


D
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Quoting MTWX:

Evenin Flood. Still hoping you guys get some rain soon!


From your lips to the storm god's ears
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Quoting Tazmanian:
hurricane # 7


EP, 07, 2011081800, , BEST, 0, 173N, 1075W, 65, 987, HU
say where do you get that data from?
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Quoting Autistic2:
I understand that I am different than most people here or anywhere but why is everyone getting offended? I thought that was giving someone else controll over you? Maybee my thoight process is just to well er um unique?


Bottom line: children at play. Unfortunately, many of them are cleverly disguised as adults.
Member Since: September 21, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 3690
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: During the month of August, we have already seen three named storms - Emily, Franklin, and Gert. So, how many more named storms will we see before 12:00 AM September 1?

A. No more named storms
B. 1 named storm
C. 2 named storms
D. 3 named storms
E. 4 named storms or more

----

I think we'll see four named storms for the remainder of this month - One from 93L, one from pre-97L, and the others idk.


I'd have to agree with you on that.
E
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Q: During the month of August, we have already seen three named storms - Emily, Franklin, and Gert. So, how many more named storms will we see before 12:00 AM September 1?

A. No more named storms
B. 1 named storm
C. 2 named storms
D. 3 named storms
E. 4 named storms or more

----

I think we'll see four named storms for the remainder of this month - One from 93L, one from pre-97L, and the others idk.


Personally, I think we'll see three.
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Quoting FLdewey:


Please don't quote FLDewey... I have him on ignore.

Best post of the day!! Truly made me laugh!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i cant wait for are 1st usa land falling hurricane


Yep taz, the US is way overdue for one. The last time we had a US landfalling hurricane, was Ike in 2008 believe it or not.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Q: During the month of August, we have already seen three named storms - Emily, Franklin, and Gert. So, how many more named storms will we see before 12:00 AM September 1?

A. No more named storms
B. 1 named storm
C. 2 named storms
D. 3 named storms
E. 4 named storms or more

----

I think we'll see four named storms for the remainder of this month - One from 93L, one from pre-97L, and the others idk.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 31575
commet re move
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Quoting Tazmanian:
per 97L looks vary good for 10%


I agree taz it may be upped to 20% or 30% at the 2am TWO. Anybody have any thoughts on that?
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I understand that I am different than most people here or anywhere but why is everyone getting offended? I thought that was giving someone else controll over you? Maybee my thoight process is just to well er um unique?
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per 97L looks vary good for 10%
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
@HurricaneSwirl: I think the vorticity maps are messed up after looking at them again. They also say that Greg's vorticity has weakened when it obviously hasn't, so...I'd consider it unreliable right now.


Yeah noticed that as well. This is probably off too:
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Quoting JLPR2:


I don't like the ensemble for me. :\
JLPR can you tell me what that is showing?Dont know how to read them.TIA
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Quoting Grothar:
Nice swirl



This is a tropics blog!!! Not a dancing blog....for God's sake...please try to stay focused...
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10479
Quoting tropicfreak:


Apologize, didn't catch that curse word, until I posted.
Been saying this for a while, kiddo.... if YOU stop quoting and replying to pple u think r trolls, and instead just [-] ignore etc, 85% of the blog wouldn't have a clue what whoever the troll is actually said. We got eyes too, and we r using our buttons too. Try it our way for a day, and see if we don't get rid of the trolls faster.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21643
Much respect for the Keep!

Leading by example.
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1625. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:
Nice swirl

yep this one may be the one old man keep you're one blind eye on it
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1623. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:


18z GFS ensembles


I don't like the ensemble for me. :\
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1622. Grothar
Quoting PcolaDan:


Wasn't that you I scolded the other night about that? tsk tsk


Yes, I saw that post. Thanks, Dan.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25517
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:



So the big question is, how reliable are these models for this duration?

And anyone can reply to this ....


Considering how long they've been indicating this (over a week), I'd say very much so.

That doesn't mean there won't be subtle evolutions within the large scale pattern, though.
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Dewey that was not cool. It was very offending to me, please don't do that again.

I no longer do that after I had some constructive criticism.

I have you on ignore, but when others quote you, do I say anything? Heck no!

Quoting twincomanche:
LOLAROAR or some such.
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1618. scott39
Quoting Patrap:
Well fo sho someone is going to be on,er,.."Vacation" fer a spell fer dat un.

Maybe longer.
Am I going to need suntan lotion and my flip flops Pat, or one of those extended stay hotels?
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Re: Mississippi River flood

Remember all the discussion about sediment from previous floods in the spillways, etc.?

Corps wants haulers to truck sand from [Bonnet Carre] spillway
...
"Several million cubic yards of sand and silt were deposited on government-owned lands after this year%u2019s spillway opening,%u201D Spillway Manager Chris Brantley, in a news release. %u201CA significant portion of these sediments need to be removed to prepare the spillway for future flood flows.%u201D

The corps is seeking proposals from large contractors to pay for the right to haul away the soil, but people who want to remove small amounts using hand tools won%u2019t be charged, according to a news release from the corps.
...
http://www.nola.com/environment/index.ssf/2011/08 /corps_wants_haulers_to_truck_s.html

Man, what that river sediment wouldn't do for my tomato garden! (Seriously, there is no such thing as more fertile soils.)

Yeah, I know it's a little OT, but it sure isn't politics or discussions about cable "news" networks.
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1616. Grothar
I don't think it is out of the question that we may see 3 named storms in the next 2 weeks.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 69 Comments: 25517
Quoting twincomanche:
I forgot being almost as old as you. Sorry.


Wasn't that you I scolded the other night about that? tsk tsk
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EP, 06, 2011081800, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1388W, 50, 997, TS
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Please don't quote him, he has no idea what he's talking about. I've added him to my ignore list.
News flash! TF added him to his ignore list.
Member Since: May 26, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
WNW?
Looks that way, but looks can be deceiving.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.