Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting aspectre:
Another bridge between 93L's previous mapping (17August_12amGMT) and
when 93L might become a truly trackable TropicalCyclone...
Since then:
14.5n69.5w, 14.7n71.3w, 14.9n73.3w, 15.0n75.2w have been re-evaluated&altered for 93L's_12amGMT_ATCF
14.4n69.4w, 14.7n71.3w, 14.9n73.3w, 15.1n74.9w, 15.3n76.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 17August_12mGMT and ending 18August_12amGMT

The 4 line-segments represent 93L's path.

93L's travel-speed has decreased to 18mph(29k/h) from its previous day's average of 23.1mph(37.2k/h).

Copy&paste bon, 14.4n69.4w-14.7n71.3w, 14.7n71.3w-14.9n73.3w, 14.9n73.3w-15.1n74.9w, 15.1n74.9w-15.3n76.5w, rtb, hav into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

No straight-line proyection? :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting GoWVU:
People who say they can't wait for a Hurricane to make landfall in the US, really has some problems!!! They have never been through one to make that comment, WOW!!!

If you are told to leave by the pros listen to them!..

Tropical storms can be “fun, exciting etc.”

Hurricanes are just down right dangerous and destructive, it aint no fun watching your roof leave…………
em>
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sorry about the commet i made a few post back i re move it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114956
1706. JLPR2
Quoting tropicfreak:


No you are not, questions are always appreciated.


Troughs moving across now will be less pronounced, which means it would curve a storm on a more northerly direction, not completely curve it out to sea. I have a bad feeling about the setup ahead in the upcoming week, looking favorable for a SE US coast hit.


You answered before me, so I'll limit myself to posting this pressure graph from the buoy at 15N 38W. XD



Showing a drop deeper than the normal fluctuations.
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Quoting twincomanche:
Hmmm.
HAARP!
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Quoting Unfriendly:
honestly... Taz wants every cane to hit the US... been that way for two years. Suprised that he's not banned, some of the stuff he says is downright disresepctful towards victims (or potential victims) of canes.


I agree that Taz could use a little more restraint. However, he has a good heart. This much I do know.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Another bridge between 93L's previous mapping (17August_12amGMT) and when 93L might become a truly trackable TropicalCyclone... Since then:

14.5n69.5w, 14.7n71.3w, 14.9n73.3w, 15.0n75.2w have been re-evaluated&altered for 93L's_12amGMT_ATCF
14.4n69.4w, 14.7n71.3w, 14.9n73.3w, 15.1n74.9w, 15.3n76.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 17August_12mGMT and ending 18August_12amGMT

The 4 line-segments represent 93L's path.

93L's travel-speed has dropped to 18mph(29k/h) from its previous day's average of 23.1mph(37.2k/h)

Copy&paste bon, 14.4n69.4w-14.7n71.3w, 14.7n71.3w-14.9n73.3w, 14.9n73.3w-15.1n74.9w, 15.1n74.9w-15.3n76.5w, rtb, hav into the GreatCircleMapper for more info
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1701. Grothar
Quoting PcolaDan:


You're Turkish?


No, but I've been there many, many times. (Saw your entry BTW) :)
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1699. GoWVU
Quoting Unfriendly:
honestly... Taz wants every cane to hit the US... been that way for two years. Suprised that he's not banned, some of the stuff he says is downright disresepctful towards victims (or potential victims) of canes.


That is messed up if he ever went through one, he might understand!! I hope they are ALL fish storms!!
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Quoting GoWVU:


I went through Hugo, and I just read a comment that someone can't wait. It makes me think they never saw the devistation and all the misery that follows one.


*facepalm*
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1697. Grothar
Quoting twincomanche:
Hmmm.


What are you hmmmming about?
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Quoting Grothar:


I dervished that one.


You're Turkish?
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Quoting FLdewey:


It looks better than a lot we've had this year!
Dewey, do you have a blog about DOOM:CON levels? I mean, I've always been interested in it, but never understood it. LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Quoting mrsalagranny:
Thanks Tropicsfreak.I just dont know how to read all the patterns that are setting up.Maybe by the time next year gets here I will hae tried to learn it more.


Heck asking questions was how I learned on this blog, and am still learning! :)
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Quoting dfwstormwatch:
say where do you get that data from?



Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114956
1691. Matt74
Quoting TropicalWeatherGrl88:
Hello all I am a long time blog watcher. I just want to say I remember last year models doing the same thing especially the GFS on a few occasions blowing up a storm and showing a Florida/La/North South Carolina hit. As the time gets closer the sameeee thing happens it either blows up and goes out to sea or doesnt even develop and comes into an area as just a rain event. I just wish the United States would get hit once and I do not mean from a major. I mean something small like a cat 1 because I am really starting to believe we have some kind of weather device, and I want to be proved wrong!
HUH?
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1689. GoWVU
Quoting JFV2015:


True; however, I went through Wilma.


I went through Hugo, and I just read a comment that someone can't wait. It makes me think they never saw the devistation and all the misery that follows one.
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North Haiti getting some serious blowups overhead.
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Quoting tropicfreak:


No you are not, questions are always appreciated.


Troughs moving across now will be less pronounced, which means it would curve a storm on a more northerly direction, not completely curve it out to sea. I have a bad feeling about the setup ahead in the upcoming week, looking favorable for a SE US coast hit.
Thanks Tropicsfreak.I just dont know how to read all the patterns that are setting up.Maybe by the time next year gets here I will hae tried to learn it more.
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1685. Grothar
Now here is a rare map I am going to share with you.

img src="">
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
honestly... Taz wants every cane to hit the US... been that way for two years. Suprised that he's not banned, some of the stuff he says is downright disresepctful towards victims (or potential victims) of canes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1683. Grothar
Quoting presslord:


This is a tropics blog!!! Not a dancing blog....for God's sake...please try to stay focused...


I dervished that one.
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1681. hcubed
Quoting MTWX:

It got renumbered again after the 2E0X1... It is now 3D1X5.


So what's your opinion on the DOW's (doppler on wheels)?

Useful?
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Quoting PcolaDan:

I'm not paying to see that. What about you? I might pay for him NOT to put on a dress.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Would this be the trough that pull it to the NC coast or will it be too strong of a storm to feel the trough?TIA .I am sorry if I am asking to many questions.


No you are not, questions are always appreciated.


Troughs moving across now will be less pronounced, which means it would curve a storm on a more northerly direction, not completely curve it out to sea. I have a bad feeling about the setup ahead in the upcoming week, looking favorable for a SE US coast hit.
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@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
Several reports of damage in Rose Hill, KS, southeast of Wichita coming in. Trees, homes, barns have been damaged
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1674. GoWVU
People who say they can't wait for a Hurricane to make landfall in the US, really has some problems!!! They have never been through one to make that comment, WOW!!!
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Quoting FLdewey:


Look kid (if you really are a kid) you can quit telling me what to do. It's just not happening.

If you're saying you no longer demand people don't quote people on your ignore list, ya did it 10 minutes ago.

Relax.

You make a bigger scene than any troll here. Just ignore who you feel you need to ignore and leave it.
He really has a problem Dewey. I call it trollbaiting. A level above an average troll. Quote me.He really has a problem Dewey. I call it trollbaiting. A level above an average troll. Quote me.
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This is where crimestoppers ads that mention nothing at all about the ethnicity of a criminal wanted for violent crimes comes from.

Wouldn't want to mention it should it offend anyone...
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes but unlike people like JFV, at least we know Taz doesn't mean ill. Look at it that way.


well thats true
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7530
Quoting OMGITSNOTHAPPENING:
its been crazy this season already 7 storms already we dont need anymore storms


We would only be up to four (Arlene, Bret, Don, and Emily) at this point if this were the pre satellite era. Hell, Bret might not have even been named.
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Quoting Autistic2:
I understand that I am different than most people here or anywhere but why is everyone getting offended? I thought that was giving someone else controll over you? Maybee my thoight process is just to well er um unique?
u r different in a good way, as in having enough sense not to let a troll make u mad all the time... the rest of us... well sometimes we don't do so well....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
Quoting JLPR2:


The GFS ensembles show an area of low pressure(CATL Wave) over southwestern Puerto Rico in 108hrs. Also seems like a building high north of it with a trof coming off the NE US coast which should give this system the chance to mostly miss Hispaniola.
Would this be the trough that pull it to the NC coast or will it be too strong of a storm to feel the trough?TIA .I am sorry if I am asking to many questions.
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Quoting twincomanche:
And a good thing that is.


Yep we've been lucky. Though in between there we have seen a few tropical storms hit the US, most notably Ida in 09. We've also had a few hurricanes brush the east coast and maybe affect Texas, but made landfall in Mexico. Unreal how our luck has been in the past 2 years.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


easy to say when you live in California


Yes but unlike people like JFV, at least we know Taz doesn't mean ill. Look at it that way.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i cant wait for are 1st usa land falling hurricane


easy to say when you live in California
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7530
1660. Patrap
Quoting twincomanche:
I have a friend who occasionally imbibes a bit too much. his theory is he doesn't remember it it didn't happen. I claim senior citizenry.


Nixon?

I thought he passed?


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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