Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting wn1995:


If you have a problem with it, ignore it, otherwise, talk tropics.



well said
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What circulation? You can't close off a mid-level circulation, and it doesn't have a surface one, so...


You have to close off a mid level circulation or it isn't a circulation.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
any way back too the weather
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1757. Patrap
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
1756. wn1995
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Taz: There is one thing that I would LOVE to see occur. I wish that you would stop announcing when you poof or report people, it just makes the blog upset and causes problems.


If you have a problem with it, ignore it, otherwise, talk tropics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
93L has certainly been an interesting invest. It has been a beautiful mid-level cyclone for the past 2 days now, but that's about it. I did notice clouds moving in a SSE and SE motion during the last few frames of visible, something that wasn't happening when recon was investigating earlier.

It's close to closing off the circulation, but it's window of opportunity to develop is closing as well.



Still has enough time to develop, though.
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Taz: There is one thing that I would LOVE to see occur. I wish that you would stop announcing when you poof or report people, it just makes the blog upset and causes problems.



dont tell me tell them that too
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Quoting MississippiWx:
93L has certainly been an interesting invest. It has been a beautiful mid-level cyclone for the past 2 days now, but that's about it. I did notice clouds moving in a SSE and SE motion during the last few frames of visible, something that wasn't happening when recon was investigating earlier.

It's close to closing off the circulation, but it's window of opportunity to develop is closing as well.



What circulation? You can't close off a mid-level circulation, and it doesn't have a surface one, so...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:
93L has certainly been an interesting invest. It has been a beautiful mid-level cyclone for the past 2 days now, but that's about it. I did notice clouds moving in a SSE and SE motion during the last few frames of visible, something that wasn't happening when recon was investigating earlier.

It's close to closing off the circulation, but it's window of opportunity to develop is closing as well.



It has another 2 days to develop, looks like it will go north of Honduras
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
1751. Grothar
Quoting twincomanche:
Me thinks this needs a explanation.



I mentioned that the new AOI had a nice swirl. Press wrote about a dance. I said I "dervished" that. You know the "Swirling Dervishes" It was a play on words. Dan and Press like them so I throw them some lines sometimes. It keeps them happy. :)
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Quoting MississippiWx:
93L has certainly been an interesting invest. It has been a beautiful mid-level cyclone for the past 2 days now, but that's about it. I did notice clouds moving in a SSE and SE motion during the last few frames of visible, something that wasn't happening when recon was investigating earlier.

It's close to closing off the circulation, but it's window of opportunity to develop is closing as well.



It may have more time than thought to strengthen, it's heading just north of west. Refer back to aspectre's post.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
Quoting GoWVU:


Taz all is good, I just remember Hugo and never want to go through another one.



ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Taz: There is one thing that I would LOVE to see occur. I wish that you would stop announcing when you poof or report people, it just makes the blog upset and causes problems.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1747. wn1995
TS Fernanda may try to make a brief run at hurricane status.

Link
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1746. GoWVU
Quoting Tazmanian:



yup i re move the post a few post back




now evere one needs too back off or risk being reported and poofed


i did not mean any harm


and thanks CybrTeddy for staning up and watching my back


Taz all is good, I just remember Hugo and never want to go through another one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1745. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
16.10N/76.36W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
CybrTeddy when you think we see 97L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L has certainly been an interesting invest. It has been a beautiful mid-level cyclone for the past 2 days now, but that's about it. I did notice clouds moving in a SSE and SE motion during the last few frames of visible, something that wasn't happening when recon was investigating earlier.

It's close to closing off the circulation, but it's window of opportunity to develop is closing as well.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1742. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/AOI/XXL
MARK
14.21N/37.86W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Well, gotta go to sleep to get up early for school tomorrow (sigh). Good Night.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Lay off Taz, he didn't mean any harm and he regrets it.



yup i re move the post a few post back




now evere one needs too back off or risk being reported and poofed


i did not mean any harm


and thanks CybrTeddy for staning up and watching my back
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
sorry about the commet i made a few post back i re move it
You didn't have to though. Everybody who is anybody on this blog knows you were not referencing the destruction, but just the anxiety/anticipation of tracking and seeing the satellite images. Not to mention all of the gulf and south east coast needs the rain.
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
Quoting CothranRoss:
The convection on 93L is starting to taper off, but isn't that just a diurnal thing?


Yeah, mostly.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21302
Do not pay any attention to the CIMSS Vorticity maps, they are obviously off for now.

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Quoting CothranRoss:
The convection on 93L is starting to taper off, but isn't that just a diurnal thing?


Yes.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1734. GoWVU
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Lay off Taz, he didn't mean any harm and he regrets it.


Fair enough, just had to vent
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CothranRoss:
The convection on 93L is starting to taper off, but isn't that just a diurnal thing?



yes but 93L is doing it has not done in a long time it refireing t-storms it may not be march but its a start
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Quoting JLPR2:
The CATL wave's 850mb vort is one of the nicest and largest one I have seen with a system that isn't even a invest yet.



Expect 97L to be activated anytime now...
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
1731. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
16.10N/76.36W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lay off Taz, he didn't mean any harm and he regrets it.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
1729. Patrap
Quoting scott39:
Hey Pat--you got mail, If you didnt get it please tell me.


No Wu-mail,received

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
1728. JLPR2
The CATL wave's 850mb vort is one of the nicest and largest one I have seen with a system that isn't even a invest yet.

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Quoting Autistic2:
I have been in two hurricanes and left for two. Make realistic decisions on what your home and location can protect you from. Make as many preparations to protect you property as you want to. Then…..

If you are told to leave by the pros listen to them!..

Tropical storms can be “fun, exciting etc.”

Hurricanes are just down right dangerous and destructive, it aint no fun watching your roof leave…………


I went through isabel when it was a Cat 1 hurricane, then a strong TS. Not a pretty sight, though it was pretty fun to stand in in the afternoon when the worst came through.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
The convection on 93L is starting to taper off, but isn't that just a diurnal thing?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I have been in two hurricanes and left for two. Make realistic decisions on what your home and location can protect you from. Make as many preparations to protect you property as you want to. Then…..

If you are told to leave by the pros listen to them!..

Tropical storms can be “fun, exciting etc.”

Hurricanes are just down right dangerous and destructive, it aint no fun watching your roof leave…………
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
any of you think 93L low is closeing off now

Don't know...too bad visible is gone.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
any of you think 93L low is closeing off now


It just might tazzo, pressures are definitely lowering.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
any of you think 93L low is closeing off now
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1717. scott39
Hey Pat--you got mail, If you didnt get it please tell me.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
1716. palmpt
Quoting Tazmanian:
sorry about the commet i made a few post back i re move it
It's cool dude. You meant no harm. People don't understand you... they take you literally.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
Quoting PcolaDan:
@JimCantore
Jim Cantore
Several reports of damage in Rose Hill, KS, southeast of Wichita coming in. Trees, homes, barns have been damaged
Member Since: September 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 638
Quoting JLPR2:


You answered before me, so I'll limit myself to posting this pressure graph from the buoy at 15N 38W. XD



Showing a drop deeper than the normal fluctuations.


Pressures are definitely lower, showing signs of a strengthening system.
Member Since: September 2, 2006 Posts: 110 Comments: 6878
I'm out.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
1711. Matt74
Quoting cloudburst2011:



hummm turn it around i cant wait for a big earth quake ..tazz you like that...
lol
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Quoting aspectre:
Another bridge between 93L's previous mapping (17August_12amGMT) and
when 93L might become a truly trackable TropicalCyclone...
Since then:
14.5n69.5w, 14.7n71.3w, 14.9n73.3w, 15.0n75.2w have been re-evaluated&altered for 93L's_12amGMT_ATCF
14.4n69.4w, 14.7n71.3w, 14.9n73.3w, 15.1n74.9w, 15.3n76.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 17August_12mGMT and ending 18August_12amGMT

The 4 line-segments represent 93L's path.

93L's travel-speed has decreased to 18mph(29k/h) from its previous day's average of 23.1mph(37.2k/h).

Copy&paste bon, 14.4n69.4w-14.7n71.3w, 14.7n71.3w-14.9n73.3w, 14.9n73.3w-15.1n74.9w, 15.1n74.9w-15.3n76.5w, rtb, hav into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

No straight-line proyection? :P
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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