Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting MississippiWx:


What amazes me is how the GFS is consistently bringing a strong low off Africa. The low in this image of the 18z GFS is already 1002mb! That is one of those lows can develop almost instantly after emerging from Africa.



Seems rather far north.
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Quoting Grothar:
GFS 192 hours




GFS Many more hours out



Even further out.



evening folks!

It seems as though the models are keeping the same track, but moving up the timeline...

Initially IIRC the models were suggesting a Saturday event for S. FL, I know I saw Friday earlier today, and now it's backing up into Thursday.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Fortunately, it is those types of systems that almost always end up recurving.


Yep. It sends the low immediately to the north after emerging. It doesn't really develop much after that, probably due to cooler waters and dry air.
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1806. JLPR2
Quoting MississippiWx:


What amazes me is how the GFS is consistently bringing a strong low off Africa. The low in this image of the 18z GFS is already 1002mb! That is one of those lows can develop almost instantly after emerging from Africa.



Yes, it's a rather interesting feature, maybe it'll get a red crayon before leaving Africa.

An instant TD, just add water. XD
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1805. wn1995
GFS ...if that was to happen.

luckily it will change, but at this point, a scenario like that would be possible.
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1804. Grothar
Quoting twincomanche:


However, because the etymology of the word is not apparent from the point of view of the modern Persian language, there have been attempts to make the parts of the word interpretable in terms of contemporary words and with reference to Sufic mystical concepts. Dar in Persian means "a door", so Dervish is said to literally mean "one who opens the doors"


We always referred to them as butlers.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


What amazes me is how the GFS is consistently bringing a strong low off Africa. The low in this image of the 18z GFS is already 1002mb! That is one of those lows can develop almost instantly after emerging from Africa.



Fortunately, it is those types of systems that almost always end up recurving.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Rather nice TW emerging right now.


TWs are getting bigger and healthier.


What amazes me is how the GFS is consistently bringing a strong low off Africa. The low in this image of the 18z GFS is already 1002mb! That is one of those lows can develop almost instantly after emerging from Africa.

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1801. scott39
Quoting Grothar:
GFS 192 hours




GFS Many more hours out



Even further out.

Man, That is a very bad Scenerio!
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1800. wn1995
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Although you can't see all of it, it looks like it has an almost, or completely closed circulation
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Quoting Autistic2:
I have been in two hurricanes and left for two. Make realistic decisions on what your home and location can protect you from. Make as many preparations to protect you property as you want to. Then…..

If you are told to leave by the pros listen to them!..

Tropical storms can be “fun, exciting etc.”

Hurricanes are just down right dangerous and destructive, it aint no fun watching your roof leave…………

it also aint no fun finding out you have no home to go back too, and finding out friends that stayed are dead.i waited till the last minute to leave st. bernard parish for katrina. we were getting cat. 1 weather in sardis ms. when we pulled over and got a hotel room. the roof was leaking in the hotel room all over the beds. i remember being so angry at a police officer friend of mine who just didn't have it in him to tell me over the phone about our home and friends that had been taken from us, and being so scared about what was going on when we watched army truck after army truck rolling down the interstate toward louisiana. god bless you glenn rambo! we miss you!
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1292
1797. Grothar
GFS 192 hours




GFS Many more hours out



Even further out.

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Quoting hurricaneben:
I have a very important question: lately when I try to make a blog post, a message says "error this user does not have a blog" or something similar, while before it always (at least mostly) used to work perfectly, what do I do to fix this horrible error??? URGENT!!!


That happens to me sometimes..What I usually do is just wait a while and try again.
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1794. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting AllStar17:
It should be noted that even a tropical storm can cause deadly flooding and mudslides when it comes ashore in Central America.

Plus, they have certainly had their share of storms recently!
yes and regardless of dev heavy periods of rain and gusty conditions will follow during passage of system
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
I have a very important question: lately when I try to make a blog post, a message says "error this user does not have a blog" or something similar, while before it always (at least mostly) used to work perfectly, what do I do to fix this horrible error??? URGENT!!!
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93L will be a tropical storm by tomorrow evening imo if not before, it has slowed , become more organized structurally , lacks convection & "conviction", "appears" to be moving more north of west of even wnw at about 285 degrees, will be over the warm waters longer,just the matter of time! JMO.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7711
1791. Grothar
Quoting PcolaDan:

:O

I only knew the original version and this one, which is based on the original:
A person whose behavior resembles a rapid, spinning object. These actions are often spastic fidgeting and incessant babbling. The actions of the whirling dervish are irritating and annoying, often exhausting other people in the immediate vicinity.


I hope you're not talking about me?
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Quoting twincomanche:
Sorta like your avatar?

bingo
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It should be noted that even a tropical storm can cause deadly flooding and mudslides when it comes ashore in Central America.

Plus, they have certainly had their share of storms recently!
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1785. JLPR2
Rather nice TW emerging right now.


TWs are getting bigger and healthier.
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The low level flow out ahead of 93L is still out of the ENE. However, it remains to be seen if that weakness to the NW in the GOM is enough to influence a track just north of west.

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1783. scott39
Quoting Patrap:


No Wu-mail,received

sent
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1782. Thrawst
Quoting wn1995:
TS Fernanda may try to make a brief run at hurricane status.

Link


Nice outflow to the northwest.
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The Dallas-Fort Worth record is more significant for those of us who come from parts of the world that use metric measurements: including today, they've had five nights this summer where the temperature has failed to fall below 30 C (86 F), having never had one prior to this year.

As for sites setting all-time records on multiple occasions in one year, I'd think this would be most likely to happen at tropical island sites without much day-to-day variability in years when sea-surface temperatures are particularly extreme, but whether any such places exist in the continental US is doubtful - might be possibilities in Hawaii or on other Pacific islands though? I've seen island stations in northern Australia set monthly records 10 or more times in the same month in such circumstances.
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1779. Dennis8
WADL very active..lots of seedlings for us to watch on the next few weeks.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 446
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


So, 93L is closer to tropical depression status than I originally thought.

I was thinking 93L was still an area of low pressure with a strong MLC.


That is why NHC put the odds at 60%.
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Quoting Patrap:
Squiggly thel radial lines.

O man,...I need a cold Fresca ASAP
If I drank as much Fresca, or any carbonated beverage, as much as you do.....I'd have a serious case of the burps.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It has had a surface low for a while now...that's not the problem. It has been on the surface maps, at least. However, it hasn't had any sort of closed feature. It's in the process of getting there though.


So, 93L is closer to tropical depression status than I originally thought.

I was thinking 93L was still an area of low pressure with a strong MLC.
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Quoting twincomanche:
Look it up. It generally means something different.

:O

I only knew the original version and this one, which is based on the original:
A person whose behavior resembles a rapid, spinning object. These actions are often spastic fidgeting and incessant babbling. The actions of the whirling dervish are irritating and annoying, often exhausting other people in the immediate vicinity.
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The CATL wave is looking better. Nice spin to it. We may see invest 97 tonight or early tomorrow and a TD or TS by Friday.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Ah, misread the Tropical Weather Outlook. Thought it said "AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT FIND A SURFACE CIRCULATION." But they really said: "AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION"

That is what happens when they use the "No signs of a surface circulation" phrase for consecutive posts :P


It has had a surface low for a while now...that's not the problem. It has been on the surface maps, at least. However, it hasn't had any sort of closed feature. It's in the process of getting there though.
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1772. JLPR2


The circulation is southeast of the convection.
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Quoting Patrap:
Im gonna see if presslord can set up a Wunderground Roast of Dr. Masters.


$100 a seat and we can have a few, er,...members Host and a Dinner included.


O man,,Im gonna write a outline and present it.

All monies will go for Disaster Relief.
I'll take to VIP seats.
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Any kind of MLC, etc. with 93L is near 16N or just south of 16N.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Who said there wasn't any reflection at the surface? Even when recon was there earlier it had surface winds out of the NE.



Ah, misread the Tropical Weather Outlook. Thought it said "AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT FIND A SURFACE CIRCULATION." But they really said: "AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON DID NOT FIND A CLOSED CIRCULATION"

That is what happens when they use the "No signs of a surface circulation" phrase for consecutive posts :P
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Well, gotta go to sleep to get up early for school tomorrow (sigh). Good Night.


I know just how you feel. I have to get in bed soon for school. I dislike school lol
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1765. Grothar
img src="">
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Quoting twincomanche:
Me thinks this needs a explanation.


Whirling Dervishes
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


It has another 2 days to develop, looks like it will go north of Honduras


That's the big question...It's not a guarantee for now.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


What circulation? You can't close off a mid-level circulation, and it doesn't have a surface one, so...


Who said there wasn't any reflection at the surface? Even when recon was there earlier it had surface winds out of the NE.

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Quoting wn1995:


If you have a problem with it, ignore it, otherwise, talk tropics.



well said
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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