Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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1860. Grothar
Quoting emcf30:

Remember a few months back where someone posted a video of the Physic Twins that were on the View.. This is spot on what they were predicting. It crazy if you think about it.



Yes, I remember that well. At least the yellow blouses.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It would be a full-fledged hurricane, Taz. SSTs are still more than adequate even at that latitude to support a warm-core system (albeit, highly sheared).

And I believe Hanna in 2008 made landfall near Long Island as a 60 kt tropical storm.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
test
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Quoting Grothar:
GFS 192 hours




GFS Many more hours out



Even further out.



I think that would be the worst case scenario anyone could ever come up with.
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1856. scott39
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Is that a GFS model?
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Quoting NHCaddict:
I bought D batteries on sale today. Having batteries deflects hurricanes, dontcha know. All of Florida owes me big time now;)



Yes, that helps to deflect, but since I am off next week here in Florida for vacation, that ATTRACTS hurricanes...
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Quoting emcf30:

Remember a few months back where someone posted a video of the Physic Twins that were on the View.. This is spot on what they were predicting. It crazy if you think about it.


And they said a Category 4, but not as bad as Katrina though.

Rut roh Raggy....
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Quoting Tazmanian:
when was the last time a hurricane hit new york lol


all so if mode runs are saying is ture will this be a hurricane or a strong nor Easter by time it gets too new york


It would be a full-fledged hurricane, Taz. SSTs are still more than adequate even at that latitude to support a warm-core system (albeit, highly sheared).

And I believe Hanna in 2008 made landfall near Long Island as a 60 kt tropical storm.
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KoritheMan with mode runs show a 977mb low off the cost of new york will it be a hurricane or strong Nor Easter?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting Tazmanian:
when was the last time a hurricane hit new york lol


all so if mode runs are saying is ture will this be a hurricane or a strong nor Easter by time it gets too new york


i believe that was BELL who last hit new york
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1850. ncstorm
Quoting MississippiWx:


You are, but that's only because it has a tropical cyclone moving up the coast.


ok thanks..thats a lot of rain..
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Quoting whepton3:


I thought it was the PLANFALF model... and the McTavish number...

For those not in the know, both are imaginary.

Living in S. FL though, I'm wishing most of the REAL model runs were imaginary as well.


Oh okay, I must have been thinking about the Scottish version. ;)
(in the know)
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1848. Dennis8
.CLIMATE...
17 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH 100 DEGREE TEMPS BREAKS YESTERDAYS RECORD
OF 16. HOUSTON IS CURRENTLY AT 28 DAYS WITH 100 DEGREE TEMPS WHICH
IS NUMBER TWO ALL TIME AND JUST 4 DAYS BEHIND THE SUMMER OF 1980.
HOBBY AIRPORT HIT 102 DEGREES TODAY. THIS IS THE TENTH TIME THIS
SUMMER THAT HOBBY HAS REACHED 100 DEGREES. THIS TIES FOR THIRD (1948)
ALL TIME FOR MOST 100 DEGREE DAYS IN A YEAR. 2000 AND 1998 EACH
RECORDED 13 100 DEGREE DAYS. 43
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1847. hahaguy
Quoting emcf30:

Remember a few months back where someone posted a video of the Physic Twins that were on the View.. This is spot on what they were predicting. It crazy if you think about it.


They are right 100% of the time 60% of the time lol.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Considering it should remain weak until right before it reaches the Caribbean, I don't expect it to gain much latitude until it's South of PR.


Agreed.

I should say, location of formation is arguably an even bigger player than the forecast synoptic pattern at these long ranges. A system that originates farther south like Gustav stands a better chance of getting into the Gulf, while a system that forms farther north stands a better chance at impacting Florida and points northward.
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1845. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55532
1844. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55532
1843. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


As of now, yes. The only real route I can see into the Gulf for pre 97L is a trip through Florida. However, it is important to note that the synoptic pattern could and likely will change (but not so much so to the point where it recurves, unfortunately). Remember, Gustav was initially forecast to move up the Bahamas and Florida also, but then ended up much farther west. Ike was also forecast to hit around Corpus, but ended up as far north as Houston.
I guess everyone wants an answer, with seeing a hurricane that bad....but forecasters and models can only get in a ballpark 10 days out. Im not complaining because I do appreciate having a real big heads up IF something developes.
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1842. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:
GFS 192 hours




GFS Many more hours out



Even further out.


Remember a few months back where someone posted a video of the Physic Twins that were on the View.. This is spot on what they were predicting. It crazy if you think about it.
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1841. Dennis8
000
FXUS64 KHGX 180130
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
830 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2011

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DAY WITH 100 DEGREE HEAT. AT 8 PM...THE TEMPERATURE IS
STILL 99 DEGREES AT COLLEGE STATION AND 95 IN HOUSTON. SFC DEW
POINTS MIXED OUT INTO THE 50S TODAY... PRODUCING RH VALUES BELOW
25 PERCENT AT TIMES. HEAT INDEX VALUES WERE RELATIVELY TAME BUT
WHEN THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURE IS 102 TO 106 DEGREES...IT WON`T TAKE
MUCH HUMIDITY TO TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE NAM 12 IS
TRENDING A TOUCH COOLER ON THURSDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND A BIT MORE
MOISTURE. ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MIGHT ALLOW A BIT
MORE MOISTURE INTO THE EXTREME EAST BUT OVERALL THINK THE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN. PREVIOUS
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. 43
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when was the last time a hurricane hit new york lol


all so if mode runs are saying is ture will this be a hurricane or a strong nor Easter by time it gets too new york
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting ncstorm:
If I am reading this map right..it looks to be about 10-15 inches of rain for the east coast if this 18Z run for the GFS came to be in play..please let me know if I am.



You are, but that's only because it has a tropical cyclone moving up the coast.
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I bought D batteries on sale today. Having batteries deflects hurricanes, dontcha know. All of Florida owes me big time now;)

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Quoting FirstCoastMan:
Does anyone have the link for the gfs 18z...Tia :)


Great model page for gfs and nam

Link
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Has anyone checked the MacTavish model recently? ;)


I thought it was the PLANFALF model... and the McTavish number...

That hoax has hung on hasn't it? ;)

For those not in the know, both are imaginary.

Living in S. FL though, I'm wishing most of the REAL model runs were imaginary as well.
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Has anyone checked the MacTavish model recently? ;)


The numbers are a whopping 8.5 for pre 97L. Batten down the hatches!
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1834. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting KoritheMan:


As of now, yes. The only real route I can see into the Gulf for pre 97L is a trip through Florida. However, it is important to note that the synoptic pattern could and likely will change (but not so much so to the point where it recurves, unfortunately). Remember, Gustav was initially forecast to move up the Bahamas and Florida also, but then ended up much farther west. Ike was also forecast to hit around Corpus, but ended up as far north as Houston.


Considering it should remain weak until right before it reaches the Caribbean, I don't expect it to gain much latitude until it's South of PR.
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1832. ncstorm
If I am reading this map right..it looks to be about 10-15 inches of rain for the east coast if this 18Z run for the GFS came to be in play..please let me know if I am.

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Has anyone checked the MacTavish model recently? ;)
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Quoting scott39:
If we have developement that the models are showing.... do you feel like the SE coast hit is looking more likely, than any part of the TC getting in the GOM?


As of now, yes. The only real route I can see into the Gulf for pre 97L is a trip through Florida. However, it is important to note that the synoptic pattern could and likely will change (but not so much so to the point where it recurves, unfortunately). Remember, Gustav was initially forecast to move up the Bahamas and Florida also, but then ended up much farther west. Ike was also forecast to hit around Corpus, but ended up as far north as Houston.
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1829. Dennis8
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Taz: There is one thing that I would LOVE to see occur. I wish that you would stop announcing when you poof or report people, it just makes the blog upset and causes problems.

PEOPLE IN Glass houses.....
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Quoting Grothar:
img src="">
Quoting Grothar:
GFS 192 hours




GFS Many more hours out



Even further out.



Uh-oh......
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1827. xcool



DGEX model 18z
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1826. scott39
Quoting Patrap:

1783. scott39


Cheque yer in=box
Didnt get it Pat.
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Quoting extreme236:


Seems rather far north.


Not surprising considering how strong it is before even emerging.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

93L is still not exhibiting any signs of a closed surface low. Winds at buoy 42058 are out of the east and if there was a closed low they would be out of the SW or WSW.

Pressures remain relatively high although the NRL site gives the system a 1009 mb low.



While I don't believe it's closed yet, a weak closed low embedded within strong trade winds would probably not be able to influence the surface winds at that buoy. Earlier when it was closer, yeah, but I think it has distanced itself far enough away from the buoy to not change the wind direction much due to my reasoning above.
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1823. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:
GFS 192 hours




GFS Many more hours out



Even further out.

well there's yer monster taking out the eastern seaboard from miami to cape cod

so glad its just a model and does not mean final depiction of said event
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 176 Comments: 55532
1822. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Fortunately, it is those types of systems that almost always end up recurving.
If we have developement that the models are showing.... do you feel like the SE coast hit is looking more likely, than any part of the TC getting in the GOM?
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Quoting FirstCoastMan:
Does anyone have the link for the gfs 18z...Tia :)


Link
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yep. It sends the low immediately to the north after emerging. It doesn't really develop much after that, probably due to cooler waters and dry air.


While enigmatic and not at all common, a track like that certainly isn't impossible. For a trip down memory lane...



While a little farther west than what the models are showing with this next one, my point is still quite valid.
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Does anyone have the link for the gfs 18z...Tia :)
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1818. Patrap

1783. scott39


Cheque yer in=box
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yes, it's a rather interesting feature, maybe it'll get a red crayon before leaving Africa.

An instant TD, just add water. XD


It would have been interesting to see a red circle for Christine of 1973 while she was still over Africa. Unfortunately, I don't even think the NHC did TWOs back then, much less ones with the fanciful circles.
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1816. JLPR2
Another interesting fact is that the EURO also sees that strong low.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting JLPR2:


Yes, it's a rather interesting feature, maybe it'll get a red crayon before leaving Africa.

An instant TD, just add water. XD



yup this add water and sugar
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Taz: There is one thing that I would LOVE to see occur. I wish that you would stop announcing when you poof or report people, it just makes the blog upset and causes problems.


Yep -let's just focus and move on. "Like begets Like" - so choose what you want to focus on. Trolls push buttons that have a consequence to an otherwise intelligent blog. Thanks for those who in these "down times" keep things on track for what's to come shortly. As many here point out, hurricanes are SERIOUS business. Thanks from the rest of us!
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


That happens to me sometimes..What I usually do is just wait a while and try again.


I used to get that a lot before actually and the second or third try should always work. Now I've been using different sources tons of times over the past day or so and nothing worked... and quite some people like my blog!
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1812. GetReal
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good evening

93L is still not exhibiting any signs of a closed surface low. Winds at buoy 42058 are out of the east and if there was a closed low they would be out of the SW or WSW.

Pressures remain relatively high although the NRL site gives the system a 1009 mb low.

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting MississippiWx:


What amazes me is how the GFS is consistently bringing a strong low off Africa. The low in this image of the 18z GFS is already 1002mb! That is one of those lows can develop almost instantly after emerging from Africa.



Seems rather far north.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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