Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1910 - 1860

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index


Complete Update

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1909. emcf30
Quoting Tazmanian:



what dos that have too do with any thing that where talking about here?


It is talking about a hurricane hit on the East coast just like a hundred or so people have been posting on here multiple times for days.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1908. angiest

Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, but I was referencing what was supposed to happen after that. It was an arbitrary example on my part. I wasn't ignoring the ostensible threat to Florida. ;)
I just loved watching people on here absolutely say, when it was out there, that there was no way it was going to the Gulf, and when it kept going SouthWest, that it absolutely would not come to Texas.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1907. scott39
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yep. Unfortunately, our skill at long range prognostications is still incredibly primitive.
Its come along way since 1900 Galveston Tx. and all the people were amazed by how big the waves were getting.... not knowing a Cat 4 was coming on shore that very moment. 8 to 12 thousand people died that day
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1906. Dennis8
Quoting cloudburst2011:




yes the last time that happen was 1851 7 tropical storms w/o a hurricane


WOW!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



what dos that have too do with any thing that where talking about here?


Probably something about that the yellow bloused fortune tellers in their first prediction of the segment pegged a major storm riding the east coast this season.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1904. Dennis8
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I think that 93L is closing it LLC and it is also small also still open to the W side should close off for D-Max
looking on sat the COC seems to be at 15.9N 77.0W moving WNW-N of Due W


You seem to be right on the money..great call
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1903. jonelu
Quoting ncstorm:
If I am reading this map right..it looks to be about 10-15 inches of rain for the east coast if this 18Z run for the GFS came to be in play..please let me know if I am.

Im sealing my roof tonight. First day I haven't had rain and its only 30% tomorrow so it will have time to dry. Just put the coffee on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm out for now guys. I'll probably come back with a blog over the next couple hours, so keep an eye out!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1900. emcf30
Quoting hahaguy:

That gave me the chills.


Just remember, If for some reason this would to pan out like the GFS is showing (Which I am NOT saying it will), And others come on here a say: I said it first or I told you so, We heard it first from the ladies in the yellow blouses months before. Heck they didn't even have any model support.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1899. liljade
Quoting xcool:
Is that all one system trying to get itself together in the Atlantic? If it is, that will be a monster!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L certaintly looks like it is organizing quickly now at the low levels.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:

Ike was supposed to hit Florida, or at least graze.




Yeah, but I was referencing what was supposed to happen after that. It was an arbitrary example on my part. I wasn't ignoring the ostensible threat to Florida. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think that 93L is closing it LLC and it is also small also still open to the W side should close off for D-Max
looking on sat the COC seems to be at 15.9N 77.0W moving WNW-N of Due W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1895. JNCali
I don't see anyone factoring the  Trough left in the wake of the POTUS bus tour???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1894. ncstorm
Quoting caneswatch:


Cat. 4 or 5, riding up the east coast, it's what the GFS is showing as far as track.


they said in the fall though..that would be terrible if Irene developed and we had another hurricane again in October??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1893. Levi32
Quoting victoriahurricane:
Anyone else find it funny how both basins are extremely active, but at the same time completely opposite? 6 Hurricanes in a row in the East Pacific and 7 Tropical Storms in a row in the Atlantic, when has that ever happened before?


The Atlantic has already set a record for having so many of the first storms of the season fail to reach hurricane status.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting emcf30:
I found it.


Just watched it... that is Just. Flat. Creepy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1891. angiest

Quoting KoritheMan:


As of now, yes. The only real route I can see into the Gulf for pre 97L is a trip through Florida. However, it is important to note that the synoptic pattern could and likely will change (but not so much so to the point where it recurves, unfortunately). Remember, Gustav was initially forecast to move up the Bahamas and Florida also, but then ended up much farther west. Ike was also forecast to hit around Corpus, but ended up as far north as Houston.
Ike was supposed to hit Florida, or at least graze.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting emcf30:
I found it.


Cat. 4 or 5, riding up the east coast, it's what the GFS is showing as far as track.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5238
1888. wxhatt
Looks like we could have a hurricane knocking at our doorstep in about a week...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting whepton3:


Still, for those of us in S. FL, at least me I should say... what's really bugging me is the consistency in this...


Seems like usually that far out the models are just all over the place but they just keep beating the drum for S. FL.


Yeah, the consistency is definitely alarming. It's still not set in stone, though. Even a forecast five days out can change.

What worries me is, the synoptic pattern is unlikely to change so that this recurves out to sea.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific has a beautiful hurricane. Appears to be of the monsoonal variety.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting victoriahurricane:
Anyone else find it funny how both basins are extremely active, but at the same time completely opposite? 6 Hurricanes in a row in the East Pacific and 7 Tropical Storms in a row in the Atlantic, when has that ever happened before?


The East Pacific was very active during the 1980s and early 1990s, beating the Atlantic in virtually all instances.

However, there is no historical precedent for the Atlantic not to produce a hurricane after seeing seven storms. The previous occurrence was in 2002, with six.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting emcf30:
I found it.



what dos that have too do with any thing that where talking about here?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
1883. ackee
Quoting Tazmanian:




it will be 97L
sorry 97L my bad
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1882. scott39
Did anyone see the repeat 2009 of Hurricane landings in the USA. Dr. Lyons was on there and he said there is five toes to a hurricane 1)Wind 2)wave height 3)stormsurge 4)flooding 5)tornadoes I usually only think about wind.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1881. hahaguy
Quoting emcf30:
I found it.

That gave me the chills.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
THE GFS have been predicting possble IRENE with each run lets see what will happen remember 93L the GFS was doing the same thing up to this point 93L has not even made TD staus so lets wait and see what will become of this wave


the gfs never developed 93L with this kind of consistency though
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
1879. ackee
THE GFS have been predicting possble IRENE with each run lets see what will happen remember 93L the GFS was doing the same thing up to this point 93L has not even made TD staus so lets wait and see what will become of this wave
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
At 0000 UTC, 18 August 2011, DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL93) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 15.3°N and 76.5°W. The current intensity was 25 kt and the center was moving at 17 kt at a bearing of 275 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1877. Mucinex
Earlier today, like everyone else, I did the math on 192 hrs. But it wasn't until one of my relatives called about a package they mailed to me that I realized the significance of this date.

Me: Excellent, did they give you an delivery date?
Relative: Yeah, I sent it super cheap, so it's gonna take 7-8 days. They said to expect delivery on August 24.


Irene is coming back on Andrew's 19th anniversary.
Anyone got a place to rent in...say...Kansas. I'm out of here.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
93L is strange sames to have wobbled wsw in the last few frames,everyone have a great night, will see what tomorrow brings.


93L has been on a steady Westerly track for days. Earlier suggestions in satellite imagery that it was moving N of due West was an illusion created by the cloud deck migrating to the WNW away from the system itself. No mystery here really.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yep. Unfortunately, our skill at long range prognostications is still incredibly primitive.


Still, for those of us in S. FL, at least me I should say... what's really bugging me is the consistency in this...


Seems like usually that far out the models are just all over the place but they just keep beating the drum for S. FL.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone else find it funny how both basins are extremely active, but at the same time completely opposite? 6 Hurricanes in a row in the East Pacific and 7 Tropical Storms in a row in the Atlantic, when has that ever happened before?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1872. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting scott39:
Is that a GFS model?
yes the first was gfs 500 mb hwv model the second was sl press sfc precip 1000 500 mb thickness gfsx 10 day run both are 18 z run
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ackee:
I wonder when we see 94L from the wave in the E atlantic


we wont since the next invest # is 97L
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
Quoting ackee:
I wonder when we see 94L from the wave in the E atlantic




it will be 97L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114048
1869. ackee
I wonder when we see 94L from the wave in the E atlantic
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
I guess everyone wants an answer, with seeing a hurricane that bad....but forecasters and models can only get in a ballpark 10 days out. Im not complaining because I do appreciate having a real big heads up IF something developes.


Yep. Unfortunately, our skill at long range prognostications is still incredibly primitive.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1867. ncstorm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1866. kaiden
Quoting PcolaDan:
Has anyone checked the MacTavish model recently? ;)


Wasn't he the head grounds keeper at Bushwood CC in CaddtShack.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1865. emcf30
Quoting Grothar:



Yes, I remember that well. At least the yellow blouses.

You better watch out. Mrs Grothar may be lurking around the corner
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hahaguy:


They are right 100% of the time 60% of the time lol.
lol!!! ha ha ha yes in deed!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NEFLWATCHING:


Yes, that helps to deflect, but since I am off next week here in Florida for vacation, that ATTRACTS hurricanes...


lol, I'll go buy some more batteries then!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PcolaDan:


Oh okay, I must have been thinking about the Scottish version. ;)
(in the know)


I knew you were... though eventually someone should come up with something and use those names.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L is strange sames to have wobbled wsw in the last few frames,everyone have a great night, will see what tomorrow brings.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1860. Grothar
Quoting emcf30:

Remember a few months back where someone posted a video of the Physic Twins that were on the View.. This is spot on what they were predicting. It crazy if you think about it.



Yes, I remember that well. At least the yellow blouses.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1910 - 1860

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Top of Page

About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.