Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting angiest:

GFS has shown as far west as SW Lousiana, and more than once in the Mobile area, as I recall. I haven't caught enough east coast runs (most of those seem to be when I can't look at it) to now how far north.
Yep, once or twice it was as far over as Mobile, but seems to have settled on FL and the east coast last several or more runs.

Here is a the replacement site for the old gfs and nam models. It's easy to use and you can go back at least four runs.. . and get a preview as the new one's start to roll out. Open two at a time and compare. It kind of interesting, or I have to get a life. One or the other.

Link
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1548
1958. Patrap
42 years ago tonight, Hurricane Camille roared ashore taking Lives and devastating the Gulf Coast.

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it looks to me that the wave and low has split the wave is pritty much on th 80W line and the low has slowed down and is at 15.9N 77.0W btw convection has started to fire up on 93L one spot at 15N 80W another at 14.5 76.5 just SSE of the COC (of where I put the COC) and other small areas around the area these where just some to call a few
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1955. angiest

Quoting Clearwater1:


I noticed that as well, but it (GFS) really has only varied little from run to run. West coast FL, then East Coast, back and forth a few time. Pretty consistent as far as they go and now other model on board as well. But you are right, as we all know, it could go anywhere or not form at all.

GFS has shown as far west as SW Lousiana, and more than once in the Mobile area, as I recall.  I haven't caught enough east coast runs (most of those seem to be when I can't look at it) to now how far north.
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1954. scott39
In the past where I have seen bloggers post " I dont ignore anybody"! You deserve a badge of patience on both shoulders! Im wearing my ignore button out here lately.
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Quoting emcf30:

2011



HAHAHAHAHA LMFAO
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Quoting cloudburst2011:


i believe that was BELL who last hit new york

Actually it was probably Hurricane Gloria in 1985.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


When someone is wrong and he is correcting them, how is he one-upping them?


{{{{APPLAUSE}}}}
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Quoting RukusBoondocks:
93 is no threat to U.S. and wont even be a tropical storm before it hits land.......on to the next fizzle out


Have you been drinking or have you been smokin? puff puff poof
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Quoting Dennis8:


DO YOU HAVE TO ONE UP everyone?
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Cloudburst2011 has been basically trolling all night. Levi is giving the truth. I, personally, would like Levi to continue to give true facts. Thank you, Levi.


Correct...The first quoted post was a dumb comment, unless it was totally sarcastic.
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Quoting coffeecrusader:
The GFS has been flip flopping between a west and east coast of Florida strike. Yesterday, it was the panhandle of Florida. Today its Miami. While the runs have been consistent they have not been identical. I say this thing could go anywhere from Central America to New Jersey.


I noticed that as well, but it (GFS) really has only varied little from run to run. West coast FL, then East Coast, back and forth a few time. Pretty consistent as far as they go and now other model on board as well. But you are right, as we all know, it could go anywhere or not form at all.

But now that I have learned of the Physic Twins, I am convinced it will pan out.

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1548
Quoting emcf30:

2011


lol
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Cloudburst2011 has been basically trolling all night. Levi is giving the truth. I, personally, would like Levi to continue to give true facts. Thank you, Levi.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Pinhole eye? :-)



taz what do you think?
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Quoting scott39:
Its come along way since 1900 Galveston Tx. and all the people were amazed by how big the waves were getting.... not knowing a Cat 4 was coming on shore that very moment. 8 to 12 thousand people died that day


wiki had this...one of few worse than 1900 Galveston Tx

Great Hurricane of 1780Main article: Great Hurricane of 1780
The Great Hurricane of 1780, also known as the Hurricane San Calixto II, is the deadliest Atlantic hurricane on record. Well over 25,000 people died when the storm passed through the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean between October 10 and October 16. The hurricane struck Barbados with wind gusts possibly exceeding 200 mph (320 km/h), before moving past Martinique, Saint Lucia, and Sint Eustatius; thousands of deaths were reported on each island. Coming in the midst of the American Revolution, the storm caused heavy losses to British and French fleets contesting for control of the area. The hurricane later passed near Puerto Rico and over the eastern portion of the Dominican Republic, causing heavy damage near the coastlines, and ultimately turned to the northeast before being last observed on October 20 southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland.

The death toll from the Great Hurricane alone exceeds that for any other entire decade of Atlantic hurricanes, and is substantially higher than that of the second-deadliest Atlantic storm, Mitch. The hurricane was part of the disastrous 1780 Atlantic hurricane season, with three exceptionally deadly storms occurring in the month of October.

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1942. emcf30
Quoting cloudburst2011:



what year was it levi when the first 7 storms developed none reached hurricane..

2011
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Quoting Dennis8:


DO YOU HAVE TO ONE UP everyone?


When someone is wrong and he is correcting them, how is he one-upping them?
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Quoting Levi32:


The Atlantic has already set a record for having so many of the first storms of the season fail to reach hurricane status.


Good to see you on here tonight Levi. I'm new to posting but have been here for seven years. Thanks for your outstanding "tidbits!" You have both a knowledge and passion for this. Oh - and as you know - "hurricane" status is about to change radically.
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1937. Dennis8
Quoting Levi32:


Um 1851 only had 6 total recorded storms, 3 of which were hurricanes.


DO YOU HAVE TO ONE UP everyone?
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Quoting Grothar:
GFS 192 hours




GFS Many more hours out



Even further out.




Still posting doomsday scenarios eyy Gro? Look at the bright side, at least the strongest winds and tallest surge would remain offshore :-/
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93 is no threat to U.S. and wont even be a tropical storm before it hits land.......on to the next fizzle out
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1934. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


The Atlantic has already set a record for having so many of the first storms of the season fail to reach hurricane status.
As of now, Do you have a LITTLE bias on the long track of pre97L? In other words.... are you currently with the GFS model or not?
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Quoting emcf30:


Just remember, If for some reason this would to pan out like the GFS is showing (Which I am NOT saying it will), And others come on here a say: I said it first or I told you so, We heard it first from the ladies in the yellow blouses months before. Heck they didn't even have any model support.


It's the YBL model

Yellow Bloused Ladies.
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1932. Dennis8
Quoting jonelu:
Oh I know you guys are in trouble. We are still 12-15"s down even with the recent rain. But my lawn is happy!


Where are you?
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The GFS has been flip flopping between a west and east coast of Florida strike. Yesterday, it was the panhandle of Florida. Today its Miami. While the runs have been consistent they have not been identical. I say this thing could go anywhere from Central America to New Jersey.
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1930. angiest

Quoting MississippiWx:
Pinhole eye? :-)

It's pinhead eye.
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1929. Dennis8
IT is hilarious....there are like 5 guys who are on 24/7 if you put on ignore ..it is like the BLOG GOES DEAD FOR 5 MINUTES at time between meaningful comments ! Quiet and you will be able to learn and have a chance to participate. SERIOUSLY. Email me for the names as I was given them.
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Quoting extreme236:


If the Atlantic could get some of that MJO I'm sure we'd have a flurry of activity.


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Quoting Tazmanian:



what dos that have too do with any thing that where talking about here?


Well Taz it has everything to do with Weather and the Fact that the Twins are saying a Storm will hit the East Coast of FL,GA,SC and many more states....

So I was wondering on your comment what does it have to do with what we are talking about???

Taco :o)
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Pinhole eye? :-)

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Quoting MississippiWx:
Pretty easy to see why the Eastern Pacific has been able to have so many hurricanes. The MJO has persisted there for a while, only waning a few times. Add that to favorable moisture content and shear levels, you have a recipe for hurricane success.



If the Atlantic could get some of that MJO I'm sure we'd have a flurry of activity.
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1921. jonelu
Quoting Dennis8:


WE really need the rain in Houston.....I am a storm spotter for Channel 13 and this is the worst ..I ahve kept personal wx records for 20 years...under 11" to date and we average over 48"
Oh I know you guys are in trouble. We are still 12-15"s down even with the recent rain. But my lawn is happy!
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 884
1920. Levi32
Quoting cloudburst2011:




yes the last time that happen was 1851 7 tropical storms w/o a hurricane


Um 1851 only had 6 total recorded storms, 3 of which were hurricanes.
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1918. Dennis8
Quoting Grothar:
Central Africa



WADL
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Pretty easy to see why the Eastern Pacific has been able to have so many hurricanes. The MJO has persisted there for a while, only waning a few times. Add that to favorable moisture content and shear levels, you have a recipe for hurricane success.

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1916. Grothar
Western Africa

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Quoting emcf30:
I found it.


RE Physic Twins vs GFS Model

I hope it doesn't pan out, re: recent gfs models. But if it does, I'm going to buy the Physic Twins' books and videos, if only for the visuals. They will have nailed it month's in advance.

Of course, the Old Farmer's Almanac called for a major to hit FL the last part of August as well. Still, I'd rather look at the twins than some guy from the Old Farmer's Almanac using an old-time favorite wart cream.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1548
1913. Grothar
Central Africa

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1912. Dennis8
Quoting emcf30:


It is talking about a hurricane hit on the East coast just like a hundred or so people have been posting on here multiple times for days.


Thanks for the info!
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1911. Dennis8
Quoting jonelu:
Im sealing my roof tonight. First day I haven't had rain and its only 30% tomorrow so it will have time to dry. Just put the coffee on.


WE really need the rain in Houston.....I am a storm spotter for Channel 13 and this is the worst ..I ahve kept personal wx records for 20 years...under 11" to date and we average over 48"
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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