Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting angiest:


What in the world did I just watch?
It's just a forecast, with a track record thrown in.

Not too many people were forecasting a nuclear wind in early March, coupled with the mechanism by which it would appear.

It's still blowing.

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Quoting caneswatch:


The NCAA is nothing but a joke. You can't get anything in return for money. Nobody can lend you a little bit of money.



Are they still using that nickname? Geez. It's not their actions, it's what Shiparo or whatever his name is did. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see he was just doing this so he could drag The U through the dirt and so he could get a shorter prison sentence. Didn't he say he was doing this just because they couldn't help him out?


LOL...I was just joking...trying to rile up MiamiHurricanes...
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Went from an open wave to a tropical storm in 6 hours over the northern Lesser Antilles. 78 hours:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Floodman:


Transit time is dependent on forward speed and the frequency of aspect change; a decent wave should be able to make the transit from the west coast of Africa to the latitude of Hispaniola in say 6-9 days; slower some, but faster others...track and conditions have a great deal to do with it. "All i good time" as they say


Thank you Floodman.. Just seems too fast to me.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Definitely hoping he sticks around...but who knows. Things aren't looking good at all especially with the NCAA "vowing to take a harder line on rules violators".
Quoting angiest:


Because being bought drinks at a nightclub is absolutely horrible.


The NCAA is nothing but a joke. You can't get anything in return for money. Nobody can lend you a little bit of money.

Quoting MississippiWx:


Glad to see Thug U in trouble for their actions. :-D



Are they still using that nickname? Geez. It's not their actions, it's what Shiparo or whatever his name is did. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see he was just doing this so he could drag The U through the dirt and so he could get a shorter prison sentence. 20 years and stealing almost a billion dollars. Didn't he say he was doing this just because they couldn't help him out?
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
330 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 20 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 24 2011

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEST COAST RIDGE AND ERN NOAM
TROF. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME...THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST ALMOST THE
ENTIRE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.


THE ONLY CHANGE TO FINAL GRAPHICS WAS TO ADJUST AN ERN CONUS COLD
FRONT FASTER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFTER IT BECAME OBVIOUS
THAT ALL THE NEW 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NEW
GFS...WAS STAYING AWAY FROM THE SLOWER 00Z AND 06Z GFS FAMILY OF
SOLUTIONS IN CANADA DAYS 6-7 WHICH HAD ALSO BEEN SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z DGEX/CANADIAN. IN RESPONSE TO SOMEWHAT FLATTER FLOW UPSTREAM
ACROSS SWRN CANADA THAN CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...THE NEW ECMWF
AND GFS ARE FILLING/LIFTING OUT THE TROF ALONG THE E COAST OF THE
CONUS FASTER BY NEXT WED DAY 7 THAN THEIR 00Z CONTINUITY. IF UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING TROF FROM THE
ATLANTIC...IT WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL ACTIVITY TO AFFECT
THE SE COAST OF THE LOWER 48 BEYOND A WEEKS TIME. HPC AND NHC WILL
BE FOLLOWING A WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...EXPECTING IT TO BE SOMEWHERE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. PLEASE STAY CURRENT ON NHC DISCUSSIONS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
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Quoting Dennis8:
Quoting MississippiWx:


When someone is wrong and he is correcting them, how is he one-upping them?

GET A LIFE EH?


You're trolling a blog and telling me to get a life? Now that's funny...

Poof.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Watched my local news tonight and they are now reporting on the african wave..however they said if it came our way, it would be over two weeks from now so no need worrying about it..why would anyone misinformed the public with inaccurate information..so right now there are people in NC thinking two weeks instead of next week if it should hit the east coast..


was it WECT
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Thanks for making sure I'll really go back to sleep now... lol

Our wx pple had model runs on the news tonight. Saying by the 24th we'll likely be going through stuff.

Not liking that at all...


Long range models are typically speculative however, when so many have been hellbent on the idea for several days now, you have to start giving them some credit. Aside from the models, the large scale pattern signals are indicating exactly what's being modeled.

Large scale signals also indicate regular rain for Texas is on the way...
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How far in the GFS model run are we?
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good night guys whats see what 93L and per 97L is up too in the AM
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115387
2047. angiest
Quoting hunkerdown:
huh ?


Weakness in the ridge on the east side of Florida. One of the reasons why GFS has shown this storm going into the Gulf is that that weakness closes off too soon for the storm to make it all the way through.
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Quoting angiest:


I have a strange craving for marshmallows now.
NO!!! Not the Stay Puff Marshmallow Man!!!
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2045. ncstorm
Quoting hunkerdown:
maybe they were referring to the wave that is rolling off Africa now as opposed to the Central Atl wave...or, maybe they are just "weekend help" and have no idea what they are saying and why.


I would love to think that but they clearly pointed out the GFS run showing the wave..I just hope they figure it out before the next news cast..
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Quoting RMM34667:
I'm confused about the timing of these models. (pre 97L or P17L (or something like that)) If I'm seeing them right we are talking about 8-10 days till it reaches the US. But it is so far away. I would think it would take MUCH longer to make that trek.. That is just own my perception of previous long track storms. Is this right? Of course I realize that until something actually develops we don't have accurate data. But timing is everything. Especially when you are trying to renew your homeowners insurance in florida.

I just wish it would at least be an invest soom to easily check the models...


Transit time is dependent on forward speed and the frequency of aspect change; a decent wave should be able to make the transit from the west coast of Africa to the latitude of Hispaniola in say 6-9 days; slower some, but faster others...track and conditions have a great deal to do with it. "All i good time" as they say
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


The path north opens.
huh ?
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the way 93L is moveing i think 93L has about 1 more day over water too try too make it too a storm or name storm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115387
There have been some pretty funny comments here over the last few hours, but this one

1969. mcluvincane

made me laugh out loud.
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Hello all.....sure is a lot of moisture in the tropics...and soon the big wave will enter stage right on this loop...anxious to see it ...

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2039. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO. Close enough...

2 days out:



The path north opens.
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Quoting Mucinex:

For all the youngsters with their fancy weather models and such.
The film"A Lady Called Camille"
Link


A truly unbelievable storm...

Wind gauge on a few ships (which were washed well inland) were stuck at 215mph...
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Quoting ncstorm:
Watched my local news tonight and they are now reporting on the african wave..however they said if it came our way, it would be over two weeks from now so no need worrying about it..why would anyone misinformed the public with inaccurate information..so right now there are people in NC thinking two weeks instead of next week if it should hit the east coast..
maybe they were referring to the wave that is rolling off Africa now as opposed to the Central Atl wave...or, maybe they are just "weekend help" and have no idea what they are saying and why.
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Quoting P451:
Evening folks. After a 2 day work-a-thon limiting blog and weather fun time.... I see 93L is still classified as an invest. More organized than I last saw it but it seems nothing is imminent and the threat of it becoming a serious storm has dropped significantly.





72HRs WV Imagery
I see a consistent storm going through D-min/D-max cycles. Shows nicely on your 72hr Run.

Thanks for sharing :)
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Quoting ProgressivePulse:



I knew when the NAO flipped positive the US and the Bahamas were going to be in trouble. Record 68 days negative and it flips at the worst possible time.
Thanks for making sure I'll really go back to sleep now... lol

Our wx pple had model runs on the news tonight. Saying by the 24th we'll likely be going through stuff.

Not liking that at all...
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


....Are any of the trolls
Juvenile Fauxcuban Vermin?


Not in this anecdote, but I could work that particular individual in...

The answer to tonight's poser is 3, but you have to slice them pretty thin...
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2033. ncstorm
Watched my local news tonight and they are now reporting on the african wave..however they said if it came our way, it would be over two weeks from now so no need worrying about it..why would anyone misinformed the public with inaccurate information..so right now there are people in NC thinking two weeks instead of next week if it should hit the east coast..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2032. Mucinex
Quoting Patrap:
42 years ago tonight, Hurricane Camille roared ashore taking Lives and devastating the Gulf Coast.


For all the youngsters with their fancy weather models and such.
The film"A Lady Called Camille"
Link
Member Since: May 23, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting MississippiWx:


Lol...Glen...

You sure you're awake?
LMAO. Close enough...

2 days out:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2030. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
MARK
15.46N/77.16W
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Quoting angiest:


What in the world did I just watch?


I don't know, maybe the REED video?
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I'm confused about the timing of these models. (pre 97L or P17L (or something like that)) If I'm seeing them right we are talking about 8-10 days till it reaches the US. But it is so far away. I would think it would take MUCH longer to make that trek.. That is just own my perception of previous long track storms. Is this right? Of course I realize that until something actually develops we don't have accurate data. But timing is everything. Especially when you are trying to renew your homeowners insurance in florida.

I just wish it would at least be an invest soom to easily check the models...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2027. angiest
Quoting scooster67:
Been spending some time with the Key Master?

Movie reference :)


I have a strange craving for marshmallows now.
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the 00z gfs is at 30 hours right now lets see what it will throw at us
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 891
2024. angiest
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:


Did someone say that a door has opened to CONUS?

I hope they still teach Latin to Meteorology students ...



What in the world did I just watch?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
the keeper has left the gate and its wide open
Been spending some time with the Key Master?

Movie reference :)
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Quoting Clearwater1:


But now that I have learned of the Physic Twins, I am convinced it will pan out.



You meant to put a /sarc at the end of this, right? I mean, I can't speak for anyone else on here, but I wasn't at all impressed by these "psychic" twins. To claim that a Cat 4 or 5 storm will occur during the climatological peak of a season that, come July, was predicted to exhibit well above normal activity, and then to broadbrush the entire East Coast as a potential target, well...so what? If they would have given a specific date, target, and intensity, and then it panned out, well, I would replace the "QPhys" in my handle with "PsyTwins" and extol their incredible powers.

I do want thank the OP for the vid, though. Got a good hearty dose of laughter before bed -- I especially loved the banter about the "past lives" of the hosts, who either were believing the stories unquestioningly or doing a really good job of acting like they bought it. Oh, but they sounded so confident, so how could their utterly unverifiable statements not be true? Right? Plus, they're twins, so you know, mystical twin stuff.

Maybe I'm being too much of a buzzkill, but psychics really do bother me, due to their exploitative nature. In the interest of fairness, though, I will add that James Randi is one of my heroes.

BTW, there's something interesting that I'll probably post in about two weeks (tropics related) that I think you guys will like -- provided there's no other major (hint hint) talking points of greater importance, of course.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Back again. Slept, woke up, still awake...

I notice Glen has a 12% chance to make it to major status according to NHC... amazing season they're having in the EPac....


Lol...Glen...

You sure you're awake?
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Back again. Slept, woke up, still awake...

I notice Greg has a 12% chance to make it to major status according to NHC... amazing season they're having in the EPac....
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Quoting Levi32:


The gate is now open.



I knew when the NAO flipped positive the US and the Bahamas were going to be in trouble. Record 68 days negative and it flips at the worst possible time.
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2018. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
by the way convective refire detected on 93l fire in the hole
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the dry air that has impeaded orginization of the storms this year in the atlantic is almost gone now.
bad news for the usa

Link
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2016. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Levi32:


The gate is now open.
the keeper has left the gate and its wide open
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2014. whitewabit (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
42 years ago tonight, Hurricane Camille roared ashore taking Lives and devastating the Gulf Coast.

I was there sitting on the second floor of a three story building, not by my choice...

the only time I thought I was going to dye and we watched the roof of a building across the street roll up and over its self...

By 11:00 pm that night we were getting gust of over 150 mph and the building was moving...

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2013. Levi32
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:





Did someone say that a door has opened to CONUS?

I hope they still teach Latin to Meteorology students ...



The gate is now open.
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2012. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It goes beyond that...

Don't wanna clutter up the blog with NCAA talk, so hit me up on PM if you want to.

Edit: PM is down, lol.

1007mb in 18 hours.



Yeah I know. ;)

Has anyone actually asked Allan why he changed up the colours so bad?
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Quoting Levi32:
The pattern a week from now on the ensembles just continues to look more and more perfect for a southeast U.S. hurricane landfall with every run. The pattern is stunning and dangerous, regardless of whether this particular Cape Verde wave develops.

Again, we have the western U.S. ridge, which is the Texas ridge shifting westward, and then the Atlantic ridge building in from the east. There is a weakness in between which would serve to draw a potential storm towards the coast, but it is not a full-blown trough that would recurve such a storm east of land. Capping it all is a zonal (flat) flow across southern Canada with above-average heights, the signature of a landfall pattern.


Did someone say that a door has opened to CONUS?

I hope they still teach Latin to Meteorology students ...

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Quoting angiest:


Because being bought drinks at a nightclub is absolutely horrible.
It goes beyond that...

Don't wanna clutter up the blog with NCAA talk, so hit me up on PM if you want to.

Edit: PM is down, lol.

1007mb in 18 hours.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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