Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2110 - 2060

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

One issue I have with GFS: How will the TC survive Hispaniola, that would be quite a feat if it can survive over the mountains unscathed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:


Better hope it doesn't develope cause as levi mentioned the pattern is just perfect for a se hurricane landfall.
Only hope around now is that the "mysterious forces" that have been with us so far will continue to be with us...

OTOH, a reemergence of MJO and a NAO flip-flop are not giving me the greatest hope here....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
2108. WxLogic
@135HR it starts exiting DR:



Definitely not good for Hispanola as a whole coming this Monday/Tuesday. Will sure remind family/friends to ensure they're prepared if they haven't done so.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Quoting angiest:
Pretty strong looking trough:

from the looks of that, won't feel the weakness till after it plows Florida, and that's assuming it doesn't pull out first.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2106. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting aussiecold:
so,all this mean that the shield that use to protect USA for last three season is gone !!!
pretty much and to make matters worst the Klingons are about to open fire

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54329
Quoting MississippiWx:


Me either...It has sounded very fishy to me.


It's unbelievably fishy. We just gotta wait and see.

Quoting hunkerdown:
an ole' Gator adage...you can't spell scUM without UM :) sorry guys, had to do it...


We have plenty of nicknames for the Gators, and the Seminoles too haha.

Ok, back to the tropics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Two statements from Dr. Masters a long long time ago

Be very ware when all the models develop a storm.

Be very ware when none of the models develop a storm.


All the models are so consistent and together because it is deep layer steering, there is nowhere else for it to go...
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
I've never understood the preoccupation with the "ignore list" on this blog....last I checked I have 3 bloggers on my ignore list. Bragging about ignoring is like bragging about censorship.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


Since it's you, I will risk serious repercussion:

The answer is 3, but you have to slice them pretty thin...


LOL...

Thanks for the special treatment, btw.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS is dead set on its 5 day track 10 runs in a row
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2099. ncstorm
Poor Haiti..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2098. angiest
Pretty strong looking trough:

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2097. will40



already too close for comfort
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hunkerdown:
he there at 2051, so I would say no


Nope, I don't have that post either...let me look through my ignore list again...back in about ten minutes (LOL)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

120 hours out
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 888
2094. WxLogic
Very consistent runs with the GFS so far.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
As far as track and intensity of PG17L...the 00z GFS is almost identical to the 18z up to this point.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
You're hopeless, Flood. I'm heading outside for some air.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2090. angiest
Quoting MississippiWx:


The ensembles/models have been oscillating between a mean trof over the Central US and East Coast. Seems like the Central Gulf Coast (unfortunately) up to North Carolina could be in danger during that time.


I would expand slightly both ways from my reading, but more or less I have the same thought.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricane23:


Better hope it doesn't develope cause as levi mentioned the pattern is just perfect for a se hurricane landfall.



Yeah, I know... GFS is developing another right behind it and we aren't even to September yet, lol. I think we will be begging for the NAO to go negative again before too long.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
2088. WxLogic
@114HR DR is noW taking a direct hit:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
5 days:



Dunno why it's taking so long for the image to load after I post it...


Maybe because it's a big honkin' image?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


How strange...mcluvincane is not on my rather robust ignore list, but 1969 doesn't show up...do I detect a ban?


Man, I hope not. I like you guys and this blog
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


How strange...mcluvincane is not on my rather robust ignore list, but 1969 doesn't show up...do I detect a ban?
he there at 2051, so I would say no
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2084. JRRP
114h

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

00z gfs 102 hours out
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 888
Quoting caneswatch:


The NCAA is nothing but a joke. You can't get anything in return for money. Nobody can lend you a little bit of money. Big whoop.



As a resident of Columbus, attending the school that was the previous victim of the hypocritical standards of the NCAA, I corroborate that sentiment. Of course, not saying the actions by the perpetrators were justified, but the sentiment is that people aren't thrilled that the NCAA is pointing fingers at the benefit grabbers with one hand while grabbing money with the other. But what do I know.

Off to bed. Who knows when I'll emerge next...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5 days:



Dunno why it's taking so long for the image to load after I post it...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting hurricane23:


Better hope it doesn't develope cause as levi mentioned the pattern is just perfect for a se hurricane landfall.


The ensembles/models have been oscillating between a mean trof over the Central US and East Coast. Seems like the Central Gulf Coast (unfortunately) up to North Carolina could be in danger during that time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


So did I miss the answer to the troll joke?


Since it's you, I will risk serious repercussion:

The answer is 3, but you have to slice them pretty thin...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2078. ncstorm
Quoting JLPR2:
Well now, if this verifies I guess I'll need to be worried in 90hrs. XD


and another one right behind it..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2077. JLPR2
Well now, if this verifies I guess I'll need to be worried in 90hrs. XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Looks like the Antillies are under a more imminent threat than the USA. The islands especially need to pay very close attention to the progress of this disturbance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting katadman:
There have been some pretty funny comments here over the last few hours, but this one

1969. mcluvincane

made me laugh out loud.


How strange...mcluvincane is not on my rather robust ignore list, but 1969 doesn't show up...do I detect a ban?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Floodman:


You're welcome...I spend so much time cutting up in here I welcome the opportunity to actually post something serious...

Right Katadman? LOL


So did I miss the answer to the troll joke?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
2055. hurricane23 4:09 AM GMT on August 18, 2011


Evening Adrian. Not a good time for the switch...


Better hope it doesn't develope cause as levi mentioned the pattern is just perfect for a se hurricane landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2072. WxLogic
@102HR PR getting affected by the N/NE quadrant:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its coming 23 not a matter of if but when


Yep, no ifs ands or buts about it. Some unlucky state or states will be impacted by a hurricane in the very near future.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
so,all this mean that the shield that use to protect USA for last three season is gone !!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RMM34667:


Thank you Floodman.. Just seems too fast to me.


You're welcome...I spend so much time cutting up in here I welcome the opportunity to actually post something serious...

Right Katadman? LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


The NCAA is nothing but a joke. You can't get anything in return for money. Nobody can lend you a little bit of money.



Are they still using that nickname? Geez. It's not their actions, it's what Shiparo or whatever his name is did. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see he was just doing this so he could drag The U through the dirt and so he could get a shorter prison sentence. 20 years and stealing almost a billion dollars. Didn't he say he was doing this just because they couldn't help him out?
an ole' Gator adage...you can't spell scUM without UM :) sorry guys, had to do it...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting caneswatch:


LOL I see. I'm a 'Cane fan too. But really, I will not be the least bit surprised if this controversy was all a sham.


Me either...It has sounded very fishy to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting smuldy:
Actually the last 10 runs of the GFS have all show an intense hurricane passing somewhere in the narrow window from Key West to the Bahamas. Its still 8-10 days out so this is in no way a sure thing but the run to run consistency has been extremely troubling.
I noticed that. That area just east of the Keys is where the 1935 hurricane strengthened to cat 5. Gulf Stream is just exiting the GoM there, and water is not deep, but deep enough to support a 'cane that's moving fast enough.

This is also not a good track if the storm intensifies before entering the Bahamas, since the north side of the storm would bring onshore winds to the flatter, highly residential south shore of New Providence.

Just as a reminder, the Keys hurricane killed 400+ at a time when the Keys were a backwater [even more so than most of the rest of FL] and even though it was a very tiny storm.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL...I was just joking...trying to rile up MiamiHurricanes...


LOL I see. I'm a 'Cane fan too. But really, I will not be the least bit surprised if this controversy was all a sham. But, then again, if it's true, I won't be surprised either.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


You're trolling a blog and telling me to get a life? Now that's funny...

Poof.
Amen ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL...I was just joking...trying to rile up MiamiHurricanes...
LOL...riled up the other 'Canes. Just chillin over here.

4 days:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2055. hurricane23 4:09 AM GMT on August 18, 2011


Evening Adrian. Not a good time for the switch...
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5449
2061. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting hurricane23:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
330 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 20 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 24 2011

THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A WEST COAST RIDGE AND ERN NOAM
TROF. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A LONG TIME...THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST ALMOST THE
ENTIRE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.


THE ONLY CHANGE TO FINAL GRAPHICS WAS TO ADJUST AN ERN CONUS COLD
FRONT FASTER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AFTER IT BECAME OBVIOUS
THAT ALL THE NEW 12Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE NEW
GFS...WAS STAYING AWAY FROM THE SLOWER 00Z AND 06Z GFS FAMILY OF
SOLUTIONS IN CANADA DAYS 6-7 WHICH HAD ALSO BEEN SUPPORTED BY THE
00Z DGEX/CANADIAN. IN RESPONSE TO SOMEWHAT FLATTER FLOW UPSTREAM
ACROSS SWRN CANADA THAN CONSENSUS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...THE NEW ECMWF
AND GFS ARE FILLING/LIFTING OUT THE TROF ALONG THE E COAST OF THE
CONUS FASTER BY NEXT WED DAY 7 THAN THEIR 00Z CONTINUITY. IF UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS DEPARTING TROF FROM THE
ATLANTIC...IT WOULD OPEN THE DOOR FOR TROPICAL ACTIVITY TO AFFECT
THE SE COAST OF THE LOWER 48 BEYOND A WEEKS TIME. HPC AND NHC WILL
BE FOLLOWING A WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...EXPECTING IT TO BE SOMEWHERE VICINITY OF THE BAHAMAS BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK. PLEASE STAY CURRENT ON NHC DISCUSSIONS OVER
THE NEXT WEEK.
its coming 23 not a matter of if but when
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54329
Quoting angiest:


What in the world did I just watch?
It's just a forecast, with a track record thrown in.

Not too many people were forecasting a nuclear wind in early March, coupled with the mechanism by which it would appear.

It's still blowing.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2110 - 2060

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.