Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.
The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.
Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.
According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.
Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.
Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.
93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.
Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.
Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.
Jeff Masters
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Business is slow here this summer.
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
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Link
Hi, hydrus. Someone posted a link right before the update of the large swirl in the Atlantic associated with the wave. I wish they could repost it. As the Doc mentioned, it may not have much convection, but a lot of spin. As you know, those usually turn out to be the bad ones when the come pat 60W. Usually I step out on a limb, but I am going to wait until there is a little more convection building. I do feel it might run alittle higher than 93L did, because of its possible strength.
Time: 15:36:30Z
Coordinates: 17.4167N 65.3833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 426.0 mb (~ 12.58 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,134 meters (~ 23,406 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 398 meters (~ 1,306 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 104° at 10 knots (From the ESE at ~ 11.5 mph)
Air Temp: -13.7°C* (~ 7.3°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 10 knots (~ 11.5 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Well, steering shows a weakness over the eastern GOM, so maybe NAM is seeing that:
It is probably not a likely solution, at least until a circulation forms.
Even the next steering layer supports a generally westward track:
but the opportunity currently exists to move a little more north. Obviously you are looking at current state, etc.
Well, that would be a bad day for sure Gro. Glad there is at least 36 more runs before that would verify.
Time: 15:46:30Z
Coordinates: 17.2167N 66.2W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.9 mb (~ 11.60 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,740 meters (~ 25,394 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 428 meters (~ 1,404 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 90° at 7 knots (From the E at ~ 8.0 mph)
Air Temp: -18.0°C* (~ -0.4°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 7 knots (~ 8.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Well, that seems to put paid to 93Ls chances to be more than a TS....... lol
Doesn't have much time to strengthen though.
btw @ post#63
I can't resist but in reading your post, I keep thinking you're calling Dr. M, "Dr. Pretty" lol!
I like the plan.
You mean this:
here is the loop Link
632 Miles to the Nic/Hond border and 955 miles to central Yucatin i dunno just sayin!!
In this run... yes. It sure does look it has a better moisture content than past runs and if that keeps up... then it could be portrayed as a deeper system as it enters the Carib.
Same back at you!
Glad to see the HH heading out there, this thing looks to be in the process of starting to wrap up into a storm but doesn't look like it will be a problem for the U.S. or blessing for TX if it keeps chugging straight West.
CLinkcheck out the 06 gfs, similar in about 8 days, only little more west. basic track several runs in a row. The 00z just now coming out. But the model you posted is now on board as well. And another one just off africa as well. Could be an interesting two weeks ahead. . . . and beyond
Thanks, hydrus. But why should we be concerned with a little cloud 3,000 miles away. It means nothing. Why should we even look when it doesn't affect us? Oops, I lost my sarcasm flag.
I know things can change this far out but since most of those systems move westward up until at least Puerto Rico or Haiti, with a strong high above it, hard to see any other direction other than westward potentially threatening land
LOL. Yes, at least that is informative.
Time: 15:56:30Z
Coordinates: 16.9833N 67.1W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.7 mb (~ 11.60 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,744 meters (~ 25,407 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 429 meters (~ 1,407 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 120° at 2 knots (From the ESE at ~ 2.3 mph)
Air Temp: -17.5°C* (~ 0.5°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 2 knots (~ 2.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
(*) Denotes suspect data
Fact is, it wouldn't make any difference if the records went back a thousand years. You'd still quibble about it.
not-so-greatnearly apocalyptic news for Texas from NWS:Read the complete and unedited piece here.
Blog update:
Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, August 17th, with Video
It's morphing the ITCZ. Will be huge.
Not sure about world wide, but North America is still rebounding from the last ice age (rising). I suspect that sea levels rise and fall too, in cycles for various reasons. I think it is a good bet that the climate is changing, I think it is a good bet that the climate is always changing. Warming would not surprise me or worry me since we are in an inter glacial.
I fear cooling much more then warming. In earths history there has never been a case of run away global warming but there has been a case of runaway global cooling (Snow Ball Earth). Now we did come close to runaway global warming 225 million years ago, but that took 1 million years of the most massive volcanic activity we know about (see Siberian Flats). However only 25,000 years ago we had mini runaway cooling. I also note the massive snowfalls in North America in recent years and lack of complete melting this spring and wonder if maybe we are really looking at a cooling.
Seems the heat is mainly at lower latitudes while the higher latitudes are cooling. It is all very confusing :)
Official records have been kept since 1895.
How many runs is this now that several models have shown something running PR/DR/TCI/Bahamas? 4 or 5 in a row???
Also noting the interesting ridge feature extending across the FL Straits practically to the Yucatan. Sho' nuff going to keep anything from going to the Gulf in the sort term. I'm starting to think 93L's best chance of hurricane is in the southern GoM...
it's always showed it entering the Caribbean then heading wnw towards PR and Hispanoila.
:-)
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