Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 3060 - 3010

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

The annual drought map is a good source but, it doesn't even come close to telling the harsh reality of where the true drought is ?? From the "Golden Triangle"(SE TX) to SW and Central LA to NW LA over the last 20 months there are places like Newton TX, De Ridder LA, Orange TX and Alexandria LA that are -37 to -49 inches of rain down since January 2010 thru Mid August 2011 !! Am praying for any tropical system to break the climate cycle that has been so badd****
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Jrweatherman,
Don't jump the gun yet, there is still no major details on possible Harvey, and those are key to knowing if Hurricane status is achievable with Harvey... My guess is a 70 Mph storms unless something were to occur... RI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:

Yes.


When you already answered my question, I modified my comment, thanks!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3057. Dennis8
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
It appears that 93L has really consolidated overnight, and a code red for it...
Likely going to see a renumber soon...
Harvey on the Way, and with this system in good conditions it is likely going to stay north of Honduras and be able to strengthen... thinking 65 to 75 mph storm, depending on when formation occurs... TCHP is very high, and shear is low with only a small amount of dry air to the west, and a small pocket to the east which appears to be diminishing


I am afraid so...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Dennis8:


HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM....let me analyze again but I say Belize. I am headed to Cancun 10-6 so I want it to stay way south. :>) ACTUALLY stay at its current strength. I am certified meteorologist and wanting and wishing do not make mother nature do anything..


Excuse you? Lol? We are all entitled to our own opinion on this site.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
15.9N/79.5W


16.2N 79.2W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L should be near this bouy soon Station 42057 17.003 N 81.501 W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tropicfreak:
Anyway, anyone think that pre-harvey could attain hurricane status?

Yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It appears that 93L has really consolidated overnight, and a code red for it...
Likely going to see a renumber soon...
Harvey on the Way, and with this system in good conditions it is likely going to stay north of Honduras and be able to strengthen... thinking 65 to 75 mph storm, depending on when formation occurs... TCHP is very high, and shear is low with only a small amount of dry air to the west, and a small pocket to the east which appears to be diminishing
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3049. Dennis8
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I say more like the Yucatan, or the Yuc.Channel
steering has changed alot it showing more of a WNW-NW movement


HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM....let me analyze again but I say Belize. I am headed to Cancun 10-6 so I want it to stay way south. :>) ACTUALLY stay at its current strength. I am certified meteorologist and wanting and wishing do not make mother nature do anything..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaribBoy:
TD8 is so tiny

don't call it that yet but you can say PRE- in front if you want to
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Okay, I stand corrected!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's interesting to see that most of the dynamic model are now taking 93L into the GoH, where last run only one of them was.
Most likely in response to better organization this a.m.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
Anyway, back to the tropics at hand.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
the advisory is not issued yet and some of you guys already consider it as a TD?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
accuweather mentioning that system in central atlantic could possibly recurve in or around Bahamas

that would be great news but again, I am stunned. With a High that big projected by the end of next week, what the heck could barrell through that thing!
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1133
Quoting tropicfreak:
Levi, Misswx, miami, any experts on here think once Harvey develops, could it make it to hurricane status?

I'm not an expert, but if 93L goes more toward the north, that means more time over water. 93L has organized a lot in 3 days. Hurricanes can organize fast in the W CARR. I'd say 80mph hurricane if it can gain some latitude.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
15.9N/79.5W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Neapolitan:

It's interesting to see that most of the dynamic model are now taking 93L into the GoH, where last run only one of them was.
This is most likely because the have been repositioning the center farther north each new model run. Over the last 24 hours it has gained 0.8 degrees of latitude.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting Dennis8:


right on..headed for Belize...

I say more like the Yucatan, or the Yuc.Channel
steering has changed alot it showing more of a WNW-NW movement
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Jason is not a troll, he has been on this site for a good 3 years now. A pain at times, yes, a troll, no.


Even patrap told us not to quote him.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


hey Jason please stop it. It may seem funny to you but to other its not don't worry we will have a renumber soon and when it happen you can post it till your computer breaks but until then please please please stop please

+9 [googol]
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
For a little fun, evolution of 93L over the last three days:

8/16 1815Z:


8/17 1315Z:


8/18 1415Z:


I see consolidation and organization.
Niiiice... very good illustration of the difference between big / pretty and TC ready....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
TD8 is so tiny
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)







It's interesting to see that most of the dynamic model are now taking 93L into the GoH, where last run only one of them was.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13796
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


hey Jason please stop it. It may seem funny to you but to other its not don't worry we will have a renumber soon and when it happen you can post it till your computer breaks but until then please please please stop please


He's not even good at it. Forgot to change the date.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3027. Dennis8
In June 2001, Tropical Storm Allison dumped up to 40 inches (1,000 mm) of rain on parts of Houston, causing the worst flooding in the city's history; the storm cost billions of dollars in damage and killed 20 people in Texas

WE NEED RAIN BUT NOT THIS...I remember that night. I was reporting for Channel 13 and I could not empty the 5" rain gauge quick enough..hourly rates 4-5" briefly and 30 " at my house overnight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JasonCoolMan2012:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932011_al082011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108140037
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END WOW is finally form!!!!!!!


hey Jason please stop it. It may seem funny to you but to other its not don't worry we will have a renumber soon and when it happen you can post it till your computer breaks but until then please please please stop please
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IceCoast:


What a hypocritical statement. I see you quote and feed the trolls on this blog on a daily basis. You are no better then him, or any of the trolls on this site.


I don't quote the trolls, if you are referring to last night, it wasn't a troll. What an unecessary statement to make. I come on here to learn, I want to be a meteorologist someday, but when trolls are on here, that kinda interferes with that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AussieStorm:

This is what Goulburn Dam looked like before the drought here broke.





This is now. Bit of a change.



I hope everyone in Tx has this sort of change soon.


Thanks Aussie. :) Gives me some hope to see that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time: 14:39:00Z
Coordinates: 17.0833N 66.8W
Acft. Static Air Press: 392.6 mb (~ 11.59 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 7,728 meters (~ 25,354 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: -
D-value: 413 meters (~ 1,355 feet)
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 44° at 8 knots (From the NE at ~ 9.2 mph)
Air Temp: -19.0°C* (~ -2.2°F*)
Dew Pt: -*
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 9 knots (~ 10.3 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: -
SFMR Rain Rate: -
Member Since: September 30, 2007 Posts: 9 Comments: 15977
Quoting IceCoast:


What a hypocritical statement. I see you quote and feed the trolls on this blog on a daily basis. You are no better then him, or any of the trolls on this site.
Jason is not a troll, he has been on this site for a good 3 years now. A pain at times, yes, a troll, no.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AllStar17:
Looks like Belize or even a little farther northward with 93L. I wonder if it can get into the BOC.

If it does, looks like it'd stay pretty low, with a second landfall in the vicinity of Veracruz.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22725
97L is getting better organized.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Levi, Misswx, miami, any experts on here think once Harvey develops, could it make it to hurricane status?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
93L structure looks to be consolidating some, slowing down a little it seems. despite of it running over very warm waters, there are other factors needed for this to come together completely. it looks to be working these out. mornin pat
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3014. Dennis8
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I'm going to put the LLCOC near 16.2N 79.0W movement to the W-WNW speed it slowing down


right on..headed for Belize...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
For a little fun, evolution of 93L over the last three days:

8/16 1815Z:


8/17 1315Z:


8/18 1415Z:


I see consolidation and organization.


Yes, it's definitely gotten itself alot more compact.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3012. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)






Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
For a little fun, evolution of 93L over the last three days:

8/16 1815Z:


8/17 1315Z:


8/18 1415Z:


I see consolidation and organization.

I see TD8
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NOLALawyer:
Harvey, if 93L makes it, will just add to the record of weakness for this season. 8th tropical storm, I can't believe it.

Hopefully 97L will break this absurd chain of tiny storms that barely deserve a name.




doesn't surprise me at all....i dont even expect major development until august 15th on. it's not out of the realm of possibilities to get a large cane in the atlantic region w/ a deep drop in millibars before august 15th, but it usually doesn't happen. however we are moving through the alphabet relatively fast compared to say, 2004 katrina (k) 8/25.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 3060 - 3010

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
28 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron