Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

Share this Blog
24
+

Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Sign In or Register Sign In or Register

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2260 - 2210

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Pictures taken from the damage left behind by the Tampa Bay Hurricane:





Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Clearwater1:


Due to a budgetary shortfall and Government cutbacks, the "shield" will only be operating as 1/4 capacity, if at all.


Oh no......

I do believe I heard on some news channel or another that NHC and HH would get their budgets slashed, thanks to Congress.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:

this is the 00z gfs track of doom for the wave we've been watching for days
Member Since: July 31, 2011 Posts: 5 Comments: 892
Quoting will40:




i think it showed 1002 in that area


It's important to remember that due to resolution issues (I am unsure of the specifics, though), global models tend to underestimate the strength of a storm. Thus, a 1002 mb pressure might actually correlate to a stronger storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hmmm...I'm lost, what Hurricane are we talking about?....Tropical Storm?.....Tropical Depression?....Invest?....Thunderstorm?....Rainy spot?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2255. ncstorm
I have been in Hurricane Diana, Gloria, Bertha, Fran, Floyd, Charley, Hugo for a couple of hours and a host of tropical storms..I can say I have a black belt when it comes to hurricanes..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting will40:




i think it showed 1002 in that area


ah, well thats not as bad strong TS
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2253. Levi32
Quoting gwadaman:


Hi Levi, how do you see this wave affecting the Islands?,,,,,,,,,,Barbados being the one I live on.


It's already north of Barbados' latitude, and in all likelyhood it won't be much of a storm near the lesser Antilles, and that's assuming it actually does develop. The models may show consistency, but we need to see it actually start organizing west of 50W before we know that they are right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2252. Mucinex
Quoting ncstorm:


I just hope Florida has a good evac plan set up, if not it will be chaos..

Hurricane Floyd part 2

Florida's "official" government evac plan is to stay home in your single story house with your hurricane shutters on unless you live in the Keys(pretty much mandatory evac always). The problem with this, is all the people that live in high-rise condos and rental apartments(not required to have shutters).

Florida's "unofficial" evac plan (ie the one that the masses follow) is to run north. While Floyd was approaching half of Florida tried to evac despite pleas from goverment officials. If this model track comes to pass it's going to be disaster movie-style chaos.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2251. will40
Quoting MyrtleCanes:


what the mb's on that, we basically have a cat 2/3 walking up the coastal plains of the carolinas in that run? ouch! Im in Myrtle on the east side of that bad boy




i think it showed 1002 in that area
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Oh, there is a good evac plan. Problem is there is only one main highway north on the west coast and two main highways north on the east coast. And to make it worse, half way up one on the east coast merges with the single route on the west coast. With contraflow and keeping fuel stocked you can imagine the madness. It's going to take a biggie to get me out of here.


Ditto. If it's above 145 mph, I'm leaving. I doubt the college I go to will survive a Cat. 4. Most of the buildings are old, from the 60s and 70s, and to make it even worse, it's on the Intracoastal.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Clearwater1:
Usually, when the early models track toward Tampa, it's a sure bet it won't get hit. If it's in the first cone of danger, it def. wont' get hit. I'm joking of course, but most here know what I mean.
I wonder if there is actually a 100 yr. old man or lady still alive that went through that storm, if your out there and can hear me, and can still see and type, please come forward, and share your horror stories, that's of course if you still have your memory :-)
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting gugi182:
Have any of you been in a hurricane? Well i haved

1996 Hurricane Hortense (85 MPH)
1998 Major Hurricane Georges (115 MPH)
2004 Tropical Storm Jeanne (70 MPH)

I got to say i still remember Georges from 7:30pm up to 6:30am it was windy the worst was around 1-4am. All you guys wishing a hurricane let me give you advice. Hurricanes are to be taking seriously and there not to joke about. i wish none of these system never hit land but this is something we can't controlled


Have you ever been attacked by a mule?....bitten by a Cotton Mouth?....Seen a cat eat a whole stick of butter???....Okay then!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just check out how large the African wave is on the MIMIC-TPW..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
Quoting will40:


252


what the mb's on that, we basically have a cat 2/3 walking up the coastal plains of the carolinas in that run? ouch! Im in Myrtle on the east side of that bad boy
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
heres228 hours,if it verifies,it would have the storm heading nnw or nw up the length od florida south to north. These can be tricky angles when they come from the south, a wobble left or right and your prob still in the warning zone,but about 60-80 miles off predicted landfall,just as Charlie showed us. Was expected to go to Tampa,took a wobble right and slammed Punta Gorda.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5318
Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Time to polish the Tampa shield.


Due to a budgetary shortfall and Government cutbacks, the "shield" will only be operating as 1/4 capacity, if at all.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Hispan(i)ola canes lol Hispaniola.


LOL I think he tried putting in the spanish lettering.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ncstorm:


I just hope Florida has a good evac plan set up, if not it will be chaos..



Oh, there is a good evac plan. Problem is there is only one main highway north on the west coast and two main highways north on the east coast. And to make it worse, half way up one on the east coast merges with the single route on the west coast. With contraflow and keeping fuel stocked you can imagine the madness. It's going to take a biggie to get me out of here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2240. will40


252
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2239. TX2FL
Quoting Drakoen:


Indeed. A pattern conducive to increased risk to the United States.



What Bastardi was talking about......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Time to polish the Tampa shield.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2237. cwf1069
Pressure falling fast at buoy 13008, just north of pre97L. Now 29.81
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2221. I've been through 6 direct hits in 3 consecutive years. 3 where major hurricanes.

2003 - Isabel.
2004 - Charley, Frances, Jeanne.
2005 - Katrina (SFL hit), Wilma.

No one here is 'wishing' for a hurricane, I sure as heck am not. I've done that no power deal. I don't want that again. But please, you have to understand there is a difference between posting predictions and model guidance than saying 'i want a hurricane to hit right nowwww!!'
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24938
Quoting will40:



there you go Canes


next frame? 252? how about that thanks in advance
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WxLogic:


Not a bad comparison.
1928 Okeechobee Hurricane to some extent.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Hispan(i)ola canes lol Hispaniola.
Lol, blehhh, blog doesn't like the use of the ñ I suppose.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2232. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2231. gugi182
well I'm heading off to bed take care all of you guys and be safe
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2230. 34chip
Quoting WxLogic:


Guaranteed evacuation if such a track/strength pans out.
I will stay!!! Been down here all my life so I wont leave.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2229. will40



there you go Canes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2228. WxLogic
Quoting MyrtleCanes:
can somebody post 240h for this run??


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2227. gugi182
93L reminds me of T.S Emily it doesn't want to go away
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2226. WxLogic
00Z NGP starting to like once more P17L but has other plans with it further out the coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
can somebody post 240h for this run??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2224. Gearsts
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not to be an alarmist, but anyone in the Lesser Antilles, the U.S Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispa%uFFFDola, should start to stock up on supplies, etc... as models suggest that PG17L will be affecting the areas aforementioned in 3-5 days.

(Lesser Antilles in 3 days, Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands in 4 days, and Hispa%uFFFDola in 5 days, roughly).
Nah same thing happen with Emely and it never affected us. Im waiting to see this thing developing first, is not even and invest so not much to worry yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Adrian. I think Agnes was a lot further inland, now that I recall.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22970
Quoting GTcooliebai:
The Great Tampa Bay Hurricane!


Usually, when the early models track toward Tampa, it's a sure bet it won't get hit. If it's in the first cone of danger, it def. wont' get hit. I'm joking of course, but most here know what I mean.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2221. gugi182
Have any of you been in a hurricane? Well i haved

1996 Hurricane Hortense (85 MPH)
1998 Major Hurricane Georges (115 MPH)
2004 Tropical Storm Jeanne (70 MPH)

I got to say i still remember Georges from 7:30pm up to 6:30am it was windy the worst was around 1-4am. All you guys wishing a hurricane let me give you advice. Hurricanes are to be taking seriously and there not to joke about. i wish none of these system never hit land but this is something we can't controlled
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not to be an alarmist, but anyone in the Lesser Antilles, the U.S Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispa%uFFFDola, should start to stock up on supplies, etc... as models suggest that PG17L will be affecting the areas aforementioned in 3-5 days.

(Lesser Antilles in 3 days, Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands in 4 days, and Hispa%uFFFDola in 5 days, roughly).



Hispan(i)ola canes lol Hispaniola.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
according to the new steering maps the steering currents are flattening out or even movin WNW and at slower speeds so 93L I expect to slow down and move in a more Northerly and westerly fasion shold help 93L tap into thoughs high TCHPs and plus thith the help with D-Max convection should explode like bombs and it should help with closing off the LLC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2218. WxLogic
Quoting hurricane23:


Not a bad comparison.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2217. ncstorm
Quoting WxLogic:


The Keys (in this situation)... but as we know any coastal residents would need to evacuate if this system does develop and of course of the path it decides to take.


I just hope Florida has a good evac plan set up, if not it will be chaos..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2216. cwf1069
Quoting winter123:
Like I said earlier today way before this massive burst of convection. I noticed fernanda was really tightening up about 16 hours ago, and now dmax is really doing it some good! watch out Hawaii... Hurricane by 5 or 8am EST?!


As I know, systems already developed don't have any influence fr the diurnal cycles. Only systems at the beginning of it's formation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The 1921 Tampa Bay Hurricane aka Tarpon Springs Hurricane Link
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Prolly see a lot more ECar bloggers in the blog tomorrow....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22970
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2212. WxLogic
Quoting ncstorm:


to where? Georgia? the storm engulfs Florida


The Keys (in this situation)... but as we know any coastal residents would need to evacuate if this system does develop and of course of the path it decides to take.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Repost:

When was the last time we saw an actual track like that up the edge of the East Coast? Agnes 72? Donna?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22970
Not to be an alarmist, but anyone in the Lesser Antilles, the U.S Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispanola, should start to stock up on supplies, etc... as models suggest that PG17L will be affecting the areas aforementioned in 3-5 days.

(Lesser Antilles in 3 days, Puerto Rico and the U.S Virgin Islands in 4 days, and Hispaola in 5 days, roughly).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2260 - 2210

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Dr. Masters co-founded wunderground in 1995. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990. Co-blogging with him: Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

Local Weather

Scattered Clouds
70 °F
Scattered Clouds

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Dunham Lake Sunset
Carrot Nose in Danger
Deep Snow in Brookline, MA
Sunset at Fort DeSoto