Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Nasty looking pattern setting up on the ECMWF. Have't seen that in years.


Impressive system by 180 slowly moving through the Bahamas.
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2359. Gearsts
Quoting weatherman12345:
unlike 93l though this has a well defined circulation
Emely was the same.
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Intense system just east of Grand Bahama by 174.

Heading WNW.
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Very flip flop of the ECMWF, no development on the 12z to a hurricane on the 00z. Nasty pattern also setting up on the ECMWF. Also a secondary system off Africa again, which all models have been very consistent on developing.
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2355. Gearsts
Quoting JLPR2:
Wondering why it isn't tagged 97L already...
Well there's still time to watch it, they are not making the same mistake they did with 93L when it got tag south of the cape verde islands and then went poof for a couple of days and got deactivated. I will be concern when we have atleast a TD :)
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Quoting GTcooliebai:
That's true, also consider the Everglades, which due to its swampy terrain can even keep the weakest of storms in tact, Idk which storm it was, but it might have been Fay, which strengthened over the everglades and was even had an eye!


Correct, TS Fay in 2008...developed an eye while moving through Southern Florida and strengthened...then maintained intensity for 6 solid hours.
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00z ECMWF now developing a hurricane in the Bahamas by 162 hours.
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hmm uped to 70%

000
ABNT20 KNHC 180532
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A CONCENTRATED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED ABOUT 130 MILES SOUTH OF JAMAICA CONTINUES
TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO
FALL NEAR THE DISTURBANCE
AND THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM
TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT MOVES OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA IN A DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE COASTS OF HONDURAS...
NICARAGUA...BELIZE...AND EASTERN YUCATAN SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT THEREAFTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

I say if D-Max helps alot between now and 6am we should have a TD or TS at 5am or 8am if not then certainly by 11am
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11166
Intensifying. Stronger trough/weaker ridge compared to the 0z GFS. 144 hours:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2349. JLPR2
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Impressive.


Yeah, once this gets convection it shouldnt be too hard for it to get going.
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2348. Ryuujin
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's the only real consensus we've had this year.


Cool, thanks Kori
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Quoting JLPR2:
Wondering why it isn't tagged 97L already...


Impressive.
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2346. JLPR2
Wondering why it isn't tagged 97L already...
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00z ECMWF really develops the system after Hispaniola.

About 144 hours.
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Quoting Ryuujin:
Been away from the blog. Why is everyone pooping a brick over the model runs? I saw yesterday that they've been pretty consistent, but is it that rare that they are?

levi, Mississippi or any of you guys care to clarify?


It's the only real consensus we've had this year.
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Looks like a TD/TS into Hispaniola on the ECMWF, slightly stronger this run.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes, but inland wind damage is only a substantial concern for the strongest of hurricanes, ala Andrew and Charley. Most hurricanes weaken very quickly after landfall, the only reason Andrew did not is because it was already so damned powerful to begin with.
That's true, also consider the Everglades, which due to its swampy terrain can even keep the weakest of storms in tact, Idk which storm it was, but it might have been Fay, which strengthened over the everglades and was even had an eye!
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
00z ECMWF continues to drag PG17L over Hispaniola.

No real development beforehand either.

The GFS and the ECM really are polar opposites.

Wonder which one will blink first.
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Well, up early cause my Daughter is going back to college and she has an early am flight out of Jacksonville......Gotta hit the road (from Tallahassee) so see everyone later today...........WW
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2339. jonelu
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Yup....Which is why I went with Major. Wilma was another one though......She entered on the West coast of Florida (and forecast to weaken considerably) and I was frantic calling friends and family in SE Florida telling them the storm was not weakening much while crossing the Everglades on the way towards Ft. Lauderdale watching the eye-wall remain intact on the local doppler radars.
Oh yea she did. I was is WPB and she was ramping up the whole way. The best thing though was the 60degree weather she left in her wake....no sitting in heat with no A/C.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Well, Wilma was able to maintain her intensity because she was accelerating. That, and Florida's topography, much like my state's (Louisiana) is relatively favorable for a hurricane to maintain its intensity longer than usual.

Ordinary Category 3 hurricanes, however, quickly weaken.


Correct again. Ya can't trust low lying or swampy terrain to slow down a storm immediately upon impact with the recent exception of Don which evaporated upon contact with the coast of Texas......... :)
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2337. Ryuujin
Been away from the blog. Why is everyone pooping a brick over the model runs? I saw yesterday that they've been pretty consistent, but is it that rare that they are?

levi, Mississippi or any of you guys care to clarify?
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2336. Mucinex
Quoting 34chip:
Living in Key West if it the big one. NOT LEAVING!!!!

I know. And I'm not judging anyone. Just the opposite.

If I was a multi-millionaire who could fly my private jet out of Key West for every storm, my butt would be parked at the Green Parrot 24/7.:)
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:


Yup....Which is why I went with Major. Wilma was another one though......She entered on the West coast of Florida (and forecast to weaken considerably) and I was frantic calling friends and family in SE Florida telling them the storm was not weakening much while crossing the Everglades on the way towards Ft. Lauderdale watching the eye-wall remain intact on the local doppler radars.


Well, Wilma was able to maintain her intensity because she was accelerating. That, and Florida's topography, much like my state's (Louisiana) is relatively favorable for a hurricane to maintain its intensity longer than usual.

Ordinary Category 3 hurricanes, however, quickly weaken.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Actually, it appears to me at least that either the timeline changed or the storm slowed down, because the 12z had it over Hispaniola during the 12z.. very interesting, even more so is that it takes it to Jamaica in 6 days.


This goes to show the uncertainty in the long range pattern. No one from the Gulf Coast to the mid Atlantic is out of the woods.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Yes, but inland wind damage is only a substantial concern for the strongest of hurricanes, ala Andrew and Charley. Most hurricanes weaken very quickly after landfall, the only reason Andrew did not is because it was already so damned powerful to begin with.


Yup....Which is why I went with Major. Wilma was another one though......She entered on the West coast of Florida (and forecast to weaken considerably) and I was frantic calling friends and family in SE Florida telling them the storm was not weakening much while crossing the Everglades on the way towards Ft. Lauderdale watching the eye-wall remain intact on the local doppler radars.
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2332. jonelu
Just finished sealing my flat roof...well the first coat that is. This house has been hear since 1928 and survived the 1928 cat 5 that hit Palm Beach county and killed over 4000 people. So hopefully Im ready.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
00z CMC is much weaker.



Actually, it appears to me at least that either the timeline changed or the storm slowed down, because the 12z had it over Hispaniola during the 12z.. very interesting, even more so is that it takes it to Jamaica in 6 days.
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Quoting Abacosurf:
looks like it is firing convection near center. I think they are expecting at least a depression or storm before landfall. I think we see this up to 50-60mph before hitting Belize.


That seems reasonable. Needs to become something soon if it wants to have a shot at becoming a moderate tropical storm, though.
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18z DGEX



GFS

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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning Folks. On 93L, the most telling sign for me anyway were some of the high rez loops from earlier today when the "doughnut hole" was evident; you could see the naked swirl down there at some point but the convection never got going near the coc. We shall see whether it can build between now and landfall but a very dry system and non-persistent system thus far.

On the evacuation issue, going inland alone is not enough if you have to evacuate and a Major is bearing down on you; you have to consider the trajectory after landfall and evacuate "sideways" if you will away from the inland cone. Andrew in 92 is the perfect example. Many folks evacuated "inland" thinking the storm would weaken substantially upon landfall and that did not happen....Most of the severe damage, and a few lives lost when a home collapsed, happened in the interior housing developments several miles in from the coast.


Yes, but inland wind damage is only a substantial concern for the strongest of hurricanes, ala Andrew and Charley. Most hurricanes weaken very quickly after landfall, the only reason Andrew did not is because it was already so damned powerful to begin with.
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Quoting hurricanefiend85:


I live right near this statue! Seriously...it never floods here. lost nearly all my trees and fences in Wilma but water was not an issue.
LOL I'm familiar with this park, though I didn't realize it was the high point of Broward... lol... I think that far inland in Broward the worst usually comes from localized flooding and heavy winds. That's why if I got stuck in FL during an incoming hurricane, I'd prolly end up somewhere along University Drive.

In Miami-Dade, the high point is higher - around 35 feet, but it's right on Biscayne Bay, just north of FIUs campus there. Frankly, if I happened to be in Miami, I'd drive north - to Broward... lol

The most at-risk county water-wise, is Palm Beach, and it's because of the Lake. I have an uncle who used to live and work in Belle Glade... When he retired, first thing he did was to move SE, down near Boca.... When you consider that just about everything on and west of State Rd 7 is reclaimed land, a bad hurricane right overhead especially slow moving, could be the precipitous reuniting of the lake with the 'glades....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21537
00z CMC is much weaker.

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Good Morning Folks. On 93L, the most telling sign for me anyway were some of the high rez loops from earlier today when the "doughnut hole" was evident; you could see the naked swirl down there at some point but the convection never got going near the coc. We shall see whether it can build between now and landfall but a very dry system and non-persistent system thus far.

On the evacuation issue, going inland alone is not enough if you have to evacuate and a Major is bearing down on you; you have to consider the trajectory after landfall and evacuate "sideways" if you will away from the inland cone. Andrew in 92 is the perfect example. Many folks evacuated "inland" thinking the storm would weaken substantially upon landfall and that did not happen....Most of the severe damage, and a few lives lost when a home collapsed, happened in the interior housing developments several miles in from the coast.
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00z CMC has PG17L just east of Jamaica in 6 days.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Pretty surprised 93L got a bump.
looks like it is firing convection near center. I think they are expecting at least a depression or storm before landfall. I think we see this up to 50-60mph before hitting Belize.
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2322. 34chip
Quoting Mucinex:

Not that I'm ever going to say it's okay not to evac in the Keys, but what would usually be a 2 1/2 hour ride from Key West has taken upwards of 14 1/2 hours during previous evacs. Then, once they get to the mainland, they've got to drive half way through Miami (while Miami is evacing) to get to their shelter at FIU/NHC.

Because this has happenend so many times(sometimes once a week) without a significant landfall, Keys people and Conchs refuse to evac. Every time I go past the 1935 Hurricane memorial I get the heebeejeebees.
Living in Key West if it the big one. NOT LEAVING!!!!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
This is the utmost truth in FL.... I think that's why official policy is if your house is sound, stick around. I still remember hearing about pple who left Tampa for Orlando - then got hit by Charley. I wouldn't stay in a mobile home or near the coast in S FL, though.
I actually live in the Tampa Bay area, along the coast in Pinellas County, about 2 miles inland from Indian Rocks beach and it amazes me that I'm not even in an evacuation zone, but I will tell you for all 22 yrs. I live here, my house has never flooded, the street will flood when we get torrential downpour, but all that water drains into the drainage ditch and sewers. The most I've suffered is a fallen branch just outside my window during Hurricane Jeanne and my fence getting knocked over when we had that Tornado outbreak at the end of May.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I was in Jacksonville NC, playing football between the barracks at New River Air Station in a driving rain when Gloria went by in 1985.


Oh wow. A memory of mine was that I went to Lake Worth Beach, FL while Katrina brushed us. Those waves were decent, but nothing close to those of Floyd's. Those were awesome to see.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL... go year by year....

I found this online just now. This is scary to me:

There are four areas that exceed 25 feet elevation in Broward County. Three of these are in the county (?) park on Pine Island, and the fourth is on a street just south of Deerfield Beach and just east of I-95.

Pine Island is a park, apparently run by Broward County. On the east side of the park, where I entered, is a statue of a military officer on horseback. This is supposed to be Major William Lauderdale, who was sent to the area in 1838 to subdue the Se minoles. He built a fort on the New River and, in accord with military custom of the day, the military commander for the Florida territory named it for the commanding officer of the fort; hence, Fort Lauderdale.

On the pedestal for the statue are two plaques. The one facing east gives the story of Maj. Lauderdale, and the west-facing plaques gives a bit of information about Pine Island: "Pine Island . . . actually was an Everglade [sic] island before the area was drained . . . . Formed thousands of years ago by the waves of the Atlantic Ocean, this two and a half mile long anchor-shaped island rises twenty-nine feet above sea level and is the highest natural point in Broward County."


I live right near this statue! Seriously...it never floods here. lost nearly all my trees and fences in Wilma but water was not an issue.
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2318. Mucinex
Quoting KoritheMan:


Considering there is only one way out of the Keys, wouldn't evacuating it be relatively difficult anyway?

Not that I'm ever going to say it's okay not to evac in the Keys, but what would usually be a 2 1/2 hour ride from Key West has taken upwards of 14 1/2 hours during previous evacs. Then, once they get to the mainland, they've got to drive half way through Miami (while Miami is evacing) to get to their shelter at FIU/NHC.

Because this has happenend so many times(sometimes once a week) without a significant landfall, Keys people and Conchs refuse to evac. Every time I go past the 1935 Hurricane memorial I get the heebeejeebees.
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Quoting caneswatch:


(In best Jim Morrison voice) GLORRRRRRIIIIIIIIIIA! LOL


I was in Jacksonville NC, playing football between the barracks at New River Air Station in a driving rain when Gloria went by in 1985.
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Quoting swflurker:
LOL, I live in Naples,FL, and a customer of mine told me a story about sitting on the beach when Donna(1960) was coming in! He said the water receeded to a point where it was gone! Then his next thought was what was going to happen when it returned! He got the 7734 out of there! BK Higgins
Jeez! Sounds like Donna had all that power to sucked all that water up into her core, like a vacuum & spit it right back out, unleashing a wall of water, & reading back a few posts Baha just mentioned a storm that ripped through the keys and the winds from storm blasted people with sand that ripped the skins off of people! The force of mother nature for ya.
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 5628
Quoting Floodman:


Idaho, I know whereof gugi speaks...got caught under Jeanne in 2004, about 4 miles from the beach; a very interesting experience to say the least. From that experience I formed the Floodman minimum safe distance scale:

Cat 2: 2 counties
Cat 3: the next northerly state line
Cat 4: Missouri
Cat 5: Washington state



I evacuated from Stafford Tx 30 years ago for no good reason other than it was in Tx. Best move I ever made....lol!
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:




(In best Jim Morrison voice) GLORRRRRRIIIIIIIIIIA! LOL
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Quoting zoomiami:


How do you remember all of them? It would take me a while to go back and figure out the names of the storms we have been affected by.
LOL... go year by year....

I found this online just now. This is scary to me:

There are four areas that exceed 25 feet elevation in Broward County. Three of these are in the county (?) park on Pine Island, and the fourth is on a street just south of Deerfield Beach and just east of I-95.

Pine Island is a park, apparently run by Broward County. On the east side of the park, where I entered, is a statue of a military officer on horseback. This is supposed to be Major William Lauderdale, who was sent to the area in 1838 to subdue the Se minoles. He built a fort on the New River and, in accord with military custom of the day, the military commander for the Florida territory named it for the commanding officer of the fort; hence, Fort Lauderdale.

On the pedestal for the statue are two plaques. The one facing east gives the story of Maj. Lauderdale, and the west-facing plaques gives a bit of information about Pine Island: "Pine Island . . . actually was an Everglade [sic] island before the area was drained . . . . Formed thousands of years ago by the waves of the Atlantic Ocean, this two and a half mile long anchor-shaped island rises twenty-nine feet above sea level and is the highest natural point in Broward County."
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21537
Quoting sullivanweather:
My only hurricane, since we're announcing - Gloria 1985.


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Quoting Floodman:


If you're in Florida and you're not runnng in front of a CAT4 then you ain't right in the head. PERIOD. Name the highest spot on the lower east coast of Florida, then think about the highest spot close to you...then think about CAT4-5 storm surge. If you don't have gills, then you run...simple...


I'm in Palm Beach County. No where in this county is safe. The Hoover Dike is this close to failing and they've projected the water from Lake O would reach what's called the "Western Communities," where I live, which is 10-20 miles inland, depending on where you live.
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Pretty surprised 93L got a bump.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.