Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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2460. smuldy
Quoting islander101010:
right front quad goes right over miami?
depends on the run, and its way far out to know given no storm no center and every other variable, i'm just freaking out cause i like to think myself fairly knowledgeable and it might, and it might be very bad when it does. But the key word there is might. It has to traverse the islands, the steering could change if it deepens slower (ie half the euro runs so far) and this hasn't even formed yet. Was just asking a couple of other informed people their takes and happen to be in the bullseye. As they say no need to freak out, yet, just pay attention over the next couple days. Especially to the Euro, if it jumps on board consistently, that is much more worrisome.
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2459. wn1995
Wow, 00Z ecmwf is certainly something. I think we will see the AOI designated an invest sometime today.

93L continues to look better and better organized, and is firing off nice convection this morning, so I would not be surprised if it is designated td 8 sometime later.

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Quoting victoriahurricane:


I mean for both basins to have a consecutive record at the same time. That must be something that's never happened before.
does not matter except that the basin is ready for some majors action
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5006
Quoting islander101010:
right front quad goes right over miami?


the fact that it COULD be a threat to the SE US is enough really. Mentioning specific cities is a little "out there" so far in advance. I think most anyone would agree.
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right front quad goes right over miami?
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 5006
2455. ackee
I notice the the oz GFS and CMC has pre97lL on more souther track if look at vorticity may seem like whatever centre this system has futher south also there a lot dry air that could stall devlopment right now dont see this system ramp up so quickly guess we see
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2454. smuldy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It's all good, definitely something I'm keeping a good eye on too. As Kori mentioned a little earlier, it isn't the track and intensity which is what's overly concerning as we are still ways out and a lot can change in the future, but it's the synoptic pattern that models consistently forecast run-to-run that will be place to steer PG17L towards the S.E US.
cannot agree more, and looking at the shear maps, and given the tchp, and the fact the upward motion should be in the basin at the exact time this could blow up, and the pocket of moisture that seems to be coming off of SA, I'd not be sitting comfortably if the models were showing nothing. Given they are showing development, for the first time this season, and given that I'm sitting in the middle (on MB I'm either close if it goes east, or in the NE quad if it goes west, or somewhere in between) and that the pattern favors either outcome, its development alone that has me fretting.
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Prime example how just the slightest shift in track can make a world of difference. 00z ECMWF had PG17L moving north of Hispaola, and thus allowing the cyclone to intensify to the 957mb depicted below.



Now in the 12z run, PG17L traveled over the mountainous terrain of Hispaola, which kept the system an open wave, and thus on a westerly course over Cuba and into the GOM.



Quoting CybrTeddy:
Heya Miami, going to be a lot of doom today. Not only might 93L become TD8, but when they see the ECMWF they'll freak out.
LOL, you can bet on it. I'm sure we'll see JFV2016, JFV2017, and JFV2018 today all freaking out.
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2452. smuldy
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Heya Miami, going to be a lot of doom today. Not only might 93L become TD8, but when they see the ECMWF they'll freak out.
the euro is still flip flopping, its the gfs that is of concern here now if the 12z resembles the 0z next time.......
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Quoting smuldy:
i hope i'm wrong, but i am anything but a 'modelcaster' yet these models have me deeply concerned
It's all good, definitely something I'm keeping a good eye on too. As Kori mentioned a little earlier, it isn't the track and intensity which is what's overly concerning as we are still ways out and a lot can change in the future, but it's the synoptic pattern that models consistently forecast run-to-run that will be place to steer PG17L towards the S.E US.
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Heya Miami, going to be a lot of doom today. Not only might 93L become TD8, but when they see the ECMWF they'll freak out.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
2449. smuldy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ooohhh, wassup? LOL, still haven't gone to sleep here.

Guess that PG17L isn't too much of a concern to lose sleep over right now, if it does develop into a tropical cyclone you can bet on a much busier night shift.
i hope i'm wrong, but i am anything but a 'modelcaster' yet these models have me deeply concerned (and i hear you on the summer thing...grad school doesnt start til the 12th for me and i still bartend as much as i can til it does so im always up til 6am except days off like today)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Hey! I'm here! Just woke up, got by coffee up and going.
Ooohhh, wassup? LOL, still haven't gone to sleep here.

Quoting smuldy:
ya that is exactly why i am up so i can see it and post at the other place, was planning on bed earlier given my day off but just got so late it seemed worth staying up for, just remember tampaspin and a bunch of others being here on my out of work shift pre ike and pre fldewey waking up on the other end, and so surprised not to see them now
Guess that PG17L isn't too much of a concern to lose sleep over right now to a lot of people (still summer for me, so I stay up this late regardless, lol), but if it were to develop into a tropical cyclone you can bet on a much busier night shift.
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2447. smuldy
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This late in the night shift, everyone's out sleeping. I'm waiting to see the 06z GFS before I head out, which as a matter of fact just started running.
ya that is exactly why i am up so i can see it and post at the other place, was planning on bed earlier given my day off but just got so late it seemed worth staying up for, just remember tampaspin and a bunch of others being here on my out of work shift pre ike and pre fldewey waking up on the other end, and so surprised not to see them (the other late nighters that used to be on alot) now
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This late in the night shift, everyone's out sleeping. I'm waiting to see the 06z GFS before I head out, which as a matter of fact just started running.


Hey! I'm here! Just woke up, got by coffee up and going.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
Quoting smuldy:
as an aside what happened to the night shift here? this is the first time I have had a day off this season where there has been something really worth discussing, and I try to avoid coming here for more than a lurk and read because of what went down last season, but no one else from the night shift came over to the other place.. and aside from Kori and Miami I don't see any of the familiar faces here on a night I would expect most people to be breaking down and posting given the potential threat out there.
This late in the night shift, everyone's out sleeping. I'm waiting to see the 06z GFS before I head out, which as a matter of fact just started running.
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2444. smuldy
as an aside what happened to the night shift here? this is the first time I have had a day off this season where there has been something really worth discussing, and I try to avoid coming here for more than a lurk and read because of what went down last season, but no one else from the night shift came over to the other place.. and aside from Kori and Miami I don't see any of the familiar faces here on a night I would expect most people to be breaking down and posting given the potential threat out there.
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2443. smuldy
FWIW with the MJO due to return, the teleconnection being brought over from the pattern that was over Japan, and the synoptic setup, I'm not loving this. The steering could change, sure, but the Euro shows a shallow core system alot longer than the GFS, which deepens it quickly, and yet the deviation between the two solutions is very slight. There just isn't anywhere for a system that does deepen to go except N or NNW after passing hispanola. Given where I live, I really hope that either I am wrong or that the system does not develop nearly as much as the models indicate. I guess one shred of hope would be that if I am wrong with my memory of Alex, she was the first large storm from last year, and if the models performed poorly with persistence and consistency with her, maybe they could here. I just wouldn't want to bet on that given how long they have insisted here and how little they change run to run on the timing of the AB high building back in to the west.
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2442. Gearsts
Is something like this possible?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


The East Pacific was very active during the 1980s and early 1990s, beating the Atlantic in virtually all instances.

However, there is no historical precedent for the Atlantic not to produce a hurricane after seeing seven storms. The previous occurrence was in 2002, with six.


I mean for both basins to have a consecutive record at the same time. That must be something that's never happened before.
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0z ECMWF Ensemble MSLP forecast (ensemble on the left, operational on the right) shows a large area of ensemble member variance. However, what we can take away from this is that the main area it is threatening during his time is the SE US (according to the ECMWF Ensembles). In addition, those are some pretty intense pinks, meaning there is significant variance occurring over the region among the ensemble members which signifies that some ensemble members are really intensifying the storm, resulting in the more significant disagreement (pinks as opposed to less disagreement signified by purple).

Anyway, it is 216 hours (9 days) out so do take it with a grain of salt. However, if your on the SE US coast (northern lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Haiti,the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas as well) I would keep a very close eye on this and make your runs to the stores and get your supplies now or as soon as possible, if you haven't already.

I'm out for now, later all
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2439. smuldy
Quoting KoritheMan:


I dunno if you are talking about track or intensity, but based on your comments I'll assume the former. I have been tracking tropical cyclones since 2007, and I've only ever seen it with the pre-Alex disturbance last year, when there was a consensus aimed at the northern Gulf Coast. Obviously, that did not materialize, which is why I still think focusing on a specific track at this stage is futile. The only meaningful aspect we can glean from these forecasts are that the synoptic pattern greatly favors a US hit.
Ya I actually meant both and from what i remember with Alex it was the 14 day window and there were occasional outliers and it settled on the high in the gulf forcing it westward 8 days out, but intensity wise it kept cranking up quite the early storm. Also if i remember the Euro was the first to jump on board, but I may be wrong on that it has been so long. I guess bottom line is as I thought, start worrying if in 4 more days it is still saying 4-5 days out and same pattern. Just this run to run consistency is new to me.
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Quoting smuldy:
I asked the chief earlier and figure I will get feedback tomorrow on his answer but for any late nighters that have been following the tropics longer than I have: have any of you EVER seen model consensus along the lines of the GFS these past few days pre cyclogenesis? I ask because I have not but it has only been two seasons I have been tracking and until a storm actually forms models seem to be all we can go off of when taking in the whole pattern they offer.


I dunno if you are talking about track or intensity, but based on your comments I'll assume the former. I have been tracking tropical cyclones since 2007, and I've only ever seen it with the pre-Alex disturbance last year, when there was a consensus aimed at the northern Gulf Coast. Obviously, that did not materialize, which is why I still think focusing on a specific track at this stage is futile. The only meaningful aspect we can glean from these forecasts are that the synoptic pattern greatly favors a US hit.
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Raining heavily here with deafening thunder.
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2436. WxLogic
Quoting TomTaylor:
I know invest designation has no requirement, but I don't understand why they've been so slow to label it an invest. Perhaps its the lack of convection? Idk, but oscat found a closed circulation and it has very strong model support, although maybe not in the short term. Still, we saw 92L and 93L get designated pretty much as soon as they exited the African continent


Indeed...
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
2435. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I would think so, but forecasting the NHC can sometimes be more difficult than forecasting cyclones.


lol
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
IMO 93L will lift north and intensify before hitting the yucatan
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Quoting WxLogic:


I would expect 97L to be coming later today.
I know invest designation has no requirement, but I don't understand why they've been so slow to label it an invest. Perhaps its the lack of convection? Idk, but oscat found a closed circulation and it has very strong model support, although maybe not in the short term. Still, we saw 92L and 93L get designated pretty much as soon as they exited the African continent
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Quoting WxLogic:


I would expect 97L to be coming later today.


I would think so, but forecasting the NHC can sometimes be more difficult than forecasting cyclones.
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2431. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


UKMET Office has also issued a forecast:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.8N 38.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 18.08.2011 12.8N 38.5W WEAK

00UTC 19.08.2011 12.4N 41.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.08.2011 13.5N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.08.2011 13.6N 50.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.08.2011 14.1N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2011 15.0N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2011 15.6N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2011 16.5N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2011 17.1N 67.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2011 18.9N 72.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2011 19.5N 73.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.08.2011 20.9N 76.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE





I would expect 97L to be coming later today.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
2430. smuldy
I asked the chief earlier and figure I will get feedback tomorrow on his answer but for any late nighters that have been following the tropics longer than I have: have any of you EVER seen model consensus along the lines of the GFS these past few days pre cyclogenesis? I ask because I have not but it has only been two seasons I have been tracking and until a storm actually forms models seem to be all we can go off of when taking in the whole pattern they offer.
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Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
There is plenty of lift at the end of this runway.



Yea, I've also been looking at all that green over Africa. As we reach the peak of the season, the majority of our activity comes from waves exiting Africa so strong upward motion as shown by the MJO forecast over Africa will act to further enhance waves coming off Africa.

Quoting KoritheMan:


Your absence has been noted.
I'll be here for the next few days. Might be gone around two weekends from now (27-28) but I'll be posting and blogging more for the rest of the season :)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z UKMET has PG17L just south of Haiti in 120 hours FWIW.



UKMET Office has also issued a forecast:

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.8N 38.5W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 18.08.2011 12.8N 38.5W WEAK

00UTC 19.08.2011 12.4N 41.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 19.08.2011 13.5N 46.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.08.2011 13.6N 50.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.08.2011 14.1N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.08.2011 15.0N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.08.2011 15.6N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.08.2011 16.5N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 22.08.2011 17.1N 67.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.08.2011 18.9N 72.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.08.2011 19.5N 73.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.08.2011 20.9N 76.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE



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93L should develop into a tropical cyclone before reaching Nicaragua and Honduras. Chances are the environment is rich for rapid development.
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Quoting Levi32:
I see the 0z Euro is back with a hurricane. The big question is whether the 12z will be yet another flop lol.

The models' overall consistency and consensus during the last 2-3 days is a bit concerning, though. The pattern seems really locked in, but we will see. Folks should keep a very close eye on this system.
There is plenty of lift at the end of this runway.



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Quoting TomTaylor:
Well I didn't get to post much at all today or the last few days. Been a little busy and most of the free time I've had on the computer has been spent reading and learning weather related stuff. Things looks like they will begin heating up in a big way now, however, so I will be turning my attention back to the blog. I'll probably be writing blogs again. Not sure how many people saw it, but I was planning on doing a few seasonal outlook blogs, but those take a while to write up and since we're already reaching the meat of the season I figured I'd save that stuff for next year's pre-season.

Things are going to really start getting interesting. SSTs and tropical waves are nearing their most conducive points, MJO is heading our way and we have strong model consensus on a possibly closed (according to oscat) circulation. I wouldn't get too concerned about it at the moment, we should wait for it to develop first, but this kind of model consensus suggests danger ahead. Also watching 93L which has good upper level conditions and a nice mid level circulation. Only problem is it is an open low level circulation with very little time to get going. We'll see, it could become a TD, perhaps a weak TS before landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. Alternatively if it can head just north enough to miss Honduras and head into Belize then it would have a pretty good shot at development.

Anyway, I'm out for tonight, catch ya'll on the flip side


Your absence has been noted.
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2424. smuldy
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm not saying to put stock into a long-range track. All I'm saying is that the consensus is for a US landfall. The synoptic pattern favors it.
And stopping over from my usual stomping grounds I will go out on more of a limb here (and one I don't like since I am in Miami Beach) and say that a less than 10 day track that varies as little as the GFS track has, given the size of the storm depicted, is not good news when the synoptic setup has really done very very little run to run in terms of variation. By no means is anything that hasn't developed a sure thing, and there is some relief in that, but wow the narrow deviation run to run is scary. Especially since I have gone through Wilma and have absolutely no solid evac plan at current, and don't even know what a sound one would be for a storm of that magnitude. I guess try and find my friends on Collins in the newer high rises and ride it out there, though aside from lack of power foreeeeeever with Wilma I was OK (back of this complex on the bay, was another story though all the places managed), but this is unnerving.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
00z UKMET has PG17L just south of Haiti in 120 hours FWIW.



Impressive that the often-highly conservative UKMET continues to be onboard with development.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
2422. WxLogic
MLB AFD:

LOOKING OUT TO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK...GFS/ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR HISPANIOLA VICINITY TUE...THE SRN BAHAMAS ON
WED AND HAVING A CHANCE TO POSSIBLY AFFECT FL JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD...ASSUMING THIS SYSTEM DOES INDEED DEVELOP AS THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING. WOULD NOT NORMALLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR
A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS LONG TIME RANGE BUT THE MODELS ARE COMING
INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
OF A SYSTEM FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. AT THIS POINT...IT IS BEST TO
CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS AS YOU NORMALLY WOULD AS WE ENTER THE
PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON FROM MID AUG TO EARLY OCT AND KEEP UP
WITH LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5038
Well I didn't get to post much at all today or the last few days. Been a little busy and most of the free time I've had on the computer has been spent reading and learning weather related stuff. Things look like they will begin heating up in a big way now, however, so I will be turning my attention back to the blog. I'll probably be writing blogs again. Not sure how many people saw it, but I was planning on doing a few seasonal outlook blogs, but those take a while to write up and since we're already reaching the meat of the season I figured I'd save that stuff for next year's pre-season.

Briefly looking at the Atlantic, things are going to really start getting interesting as we head to the most active part of the hurricane season. SSTs and tropical waves are nearing their most conducive points, MJO is heading our way and we have strong model consensus on a possibly closed (according to oscat) circulation. I wouldn't get too concerned about it at the moment, we should wait for it to develop first, but this kind of model consensus suggests danger ahead. Also watching 93L which has good upper level conditions and a nice mid level circulation. Only problem is it is an open low level circulation with very little time to get going. We'll see, it could become a TD, perhaps a weak TS before landfall in Nicaragua or Honduras. Alternatively if it can head just north enough to miss Honduras and head into Belize then it would have a pretty good shot at development. Finally, models are also hinting at another strong wave coming off Africa in a week or so. Not much of a concern this far out, but it shows that waves will becoming off stronger now as the temperature, moisture, and pressure gradient over the African continent reaches its height.

Anyway, I'm out for tonight, catch ya'll on the flip side
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00z UKMET has PG17L just south of Haiti in 120 hours FWIW.

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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Last year whenever we saw a consensus for a major system one did almost always develop, with the exception of Fiona but that was because of Earl.. which was a major system. However track will always be shaky. I have never put much stock in a track past 5 days, and I don't think anyone should.


I'm not saying to put stock into a long-range track. All I'm saying is that the consensus is for a US landfall. The synoptic pattern favors it.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


But...we have a consensus. A persistent one, at that.
Exactly. When something this persistent occurs, and all reliable global models develop a cyclone, (and even agree with each other on track and intensity, somewhat) I would go as far to say that there's a very high chance of a tropical cyclone developing.

Good to see the night crew up at 4a.m. watchin' models. Lol.

>Quoting CybrTeddy:


Last year whenever we saw a consensus for a major system one did almost always develop, with the exception of Fiona but that was because of Earl.. which was a major system. However track will always be shaky. I have never put much stock in a track past 5 days, and I don't think anyone should.
This is very true, I especially remember Danielle.
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Quoting KoritheMan:


But...we have a consensus. A persistent one, at that.


Last year whenever we saw a consensus for a major system one did almost always develop, with the exception of Fiona but that was because of Earl.. which was a major system. However track will always be shaky. I have never put much stock in a track past 5 days, and I don't think anyone should.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
Both HWRF variations develop the low outside their grid. We'll see what happens later today.

Time for a late breakfast.
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Quoting atmosweather:


+1000

How many times does this happen every single season where we get a bunch of crazy runs and then nothing happens? And then when all global models miss the development of a storm completely? Happens without fail every year...the models are literally pointless until you get an actual system. Forecasting is not nostradamus'ing.



But...we have a consensus. A persistent one, at that.
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Quoting Drakoen:


No love for the NOGAPS? lol


LOL

I haven't even looked at it.

NOAA HIFP HWRF

PG17L south of DR


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2413. tj175

Exactly my point. I forgot the many Trolls who we have on the blog. Might I pull out my repellent
Quoting atmosweather:


+1000

How many times does this happen every single season where we get a bunch of crazy runs and then nothing happens? And then when all global models miss the development of a storm completely? Happens without fail every year...the models are literally pointless until you get an actual system. Forecasting is not nostradamus'ing.

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2412. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The "Big Three" seem to be in remarkably impressive consensus for this far out in time. It should be very interesting to see whether or not this consensus holds, or if this even develops. The fact that this will be traversing Hispaniola really makes me question this whole solution, since that has the potential to rip a weak system apart.


No love for the NOGAPS? lol
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30832
Quoting tj175:
97L is way to far out right now to even fathom where it could go. I see some of the model runs but EVERYONE on here knows how they flip flop back and forth every few hours. We are literally talking about something a week or so away. By the end of the weekend is when everyone in the Southeast US should be paying close attention but for now we should just watch and not speculate where it is going to go.




+1000

How many times does this happen every single season where we get a bunch of crazy runs and then nothing happens? And then when all global models miss the development of a storm completely? Happens without fail every year...the models are literally pointless until you get an actual system. Forecasting is not nostradamus'ing.

Member Since: September 24, 2005 Posts: 33 Comments: 9265
Hi there, long time lurker here.

It's amazing that up till now, tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic basin had been mostly inhibited.

The situation seemed similar with 2010, where the synoptic pattern that lead to the deadly Russian heatwave suppressed tropical cyclone activity after hurricane Alex.

Could the same situation be happening with the current Texas drought?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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