Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting CybrTeddy:





hey can you like re move that


A i dont link the photo


and B its a mkeing my a little sick by looking at it


and C you could get a bannd for postin it and i want too see you get a bannd
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115347
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Looks as though you may get some more rain. Just hope it's of the gentler kind. :)

Thanks for the kind thoughts! I work for a vacation property management company. We have 90 properties (condos and single family homes) to prep for a threat of a hurricane. It's not a fun day when that happens!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Morning all. Looks busy. Everywhere but here. Getting a lil' parched. :) I'm in the -42.53 place.


I'm in the 45.03 and counting,burning up and drying up.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Patrick Vaughn on channel 12. Looks like things a little scary up Jasper way.

Update: Mandatory evacuations in Jasper Co. due to forest fire Link
By Scott Mitchell

The fires in Jasper and Tyler counties have consumed more than 600 acres and are currently forty percent contained. Two of the three fires have now burned together. Fire officials are starting a "burnout," which would involve officials setting fire within a control line to prevent further spread of the fire.

The authorities have issued a mandatory evacuation for County Roads 32, 41 39, 40, 34 and a voluntary evacuation for County Road 29.

The Texas Forest Service says firefighters are working to contain the fires burning within miles from one another. Each fire has consumed over 100 acres a piece and currently 50 homes are in danger and are being evacuated. The forest service has helicopters working the scene and the fire is still growing...



I had no idea about this fire. Jasper is only an hour away.
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2506. ncstorm
why does the ECWMF have a mb pressure of 959 in the 216 hour frame and then a 1012 mb pressure in the 240 frame and actually moves it south..whats going on with the model runs?
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Quoting KeyWestwx:

how and where can i find this model graphic?
some similiarities between this one and 1935 flagler railrd storm everything has to fall in place but the d.o.a. is kinda of scary
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4862
ecmwf 240hrs

Link

GFS 216hrs

Link
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Is that Rob Robin? He is usually very good.


Patrick Vaughn on channel 12. Looks like things a little scary up Jasper way.

Update: Mandatory evacuations in Jasper Co. due to forest fire Link
By Scott Mitchell

The fires in Jasper and Tyler counties have consumed more than 600 acres and are currently forty percent contained. Two of the three fires have now burned together. Fire officials are starting a "burnout," which would involve officials setting fire within a control line to prevent further spread of the fire.

The authorities have issued a mandatory evacuation for County Roads 32, 41 39, 40, 34 and a voluntary evacuation for County Road 29.

The Texas Forest Service says firefighters are working to contain the fires burning within miles from one another. Each fire has consumed over 100 acres a piece and currently 50 homes are in danger and are being evacuated. The forest service has helicopters working the scene and the fire is still growing...

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Good morning.


Post removed due to complaint..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24457
Quoting KeyWestwx:

how and where can i find this model graphic?
Here ya' go.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Major hurricane into Tampa and points northward on the 06z run...



how and where can i find this model graphic?
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2499. ncstorm
ECWMF..wow...

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

the new model run for 93L (06Z) shifted Northward I think we may see that continued northward pull

on new steering maps now shows the steering flow moving WNW-NW


Which model are you speaking of and how much further north
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Quoting presslord:


Gonna be @ C of C with son all day...will be sure to check out 'weather' @ Marion Square and report back to you


Forecast for Marion Square - lovely ladies and Juanita Greenburgs !!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:



Good morning.
Wow stormwatcher, your good- though I have a feeling this photo has been posted once before on this site :)-
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


I understand completely about the tropical storm and the hard to watch. Mother Nature can certainly bend you. One way or the other. Guess we'll be ok just bent if we don't break. Local met was saying that we'd have a cold front blow through Sept. 10. Bringing an end to hurricane season for us. If that is so. I hope it's a wet one.


Is that Rob Robin? He is usually very good.
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Major hurricane into Tampa and points northward on the 06z run...


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Eight days out GFS shows missing East florida WNW on or over N Cuba. Second run in a row. To early clearly to assume a Florida storm or SE storm.
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Quoting KeyWestwx:

Wow! that is dry! We are experieincing drought conditions in the lower Florida Keys also. I believe we are at 1/3 of our normal yearly rainfall. We did get about one inch, 2 days ago, and it helped to combat this outbreak of whitefly that is begining to infest and weaken many of our native plants


Looks as though you may get some more rain. Just hope it's of the gentler kind. :)
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Quoting aquak9:
What would the name be for 97 if it forms?

Next up is Harvey, if they name the one south of us. After that, it's Irene, Jose, Katia, and Lee.

so either Harvey or Irene, depending on which one gets named first.

Katia.....Katia......Katia....KATRINA
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Quoting presslord:


Harvey, huh? cue up the rabbit graphic...



Good morning.
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


It depends on whether or not 93L becomes a storm. If it does, it would be Harvey, and pre-97L would be Irene, but if 93L doesn't develop, pre-97L would be Harvey.


Harvey sounds so harmless to me- like the invisible whire rabbit in the classic Jimmy stewart movie.
Now Irene! she sounds like an infamous name that will be retired by the end of this hurrucane season. I do think 93 will become Harvey and,if 97 forms, that will become Irene. Of course that is just elementary and not rocket science
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:
It looks to me like 93L is moving just north of due west, around 285 degrees. If it keeps this up it may miss Nicaragua/Honduras, so would have more time to become a weak/moderate TS. Can't really see much more than that though.

the new model run for 93L (06Z) shifted Northward I think we may see that continued northward pull

on new steering maps now shows the steering flow moving WNW-NW
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12324
Quoting Chucktown:
A tremendous amount of land interaction with the 6 Z run. This would imply a weaker system and possibly a more south or westward solution. Still too many variables, but last 2 GFS runs have the storm moving across a lot of land.


Gonna be @ C of C with son all day...will be sure to check out 'weather' @ Marion Square and report back to you
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
I'm waiting for some of those gorgeous October days. I do worry if we don't get at least a TS we will be in even more trouble with the drought. I can not believe I am hoping for a TS, but watching the farmers and ranchers around me losing everything...


I understand completely about the tropical storm and the hard to watch. Mother Nature can certainly bend you. One way or the other. Guess we'll be ok just bent if we don't break. Local met was saying that we'd have a cold front blow through Sept. 10. Bringing an end to hurricane season for us. If that is so. I hope it's a wet one.
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A tremendous amount of land interaction with the 6 Z run. This would imply a weaker system and possibly a more south or westward solution. Still too many variables, but last 2 GFS runs have the storm moving across a lot of land.
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7 days out:

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Quoting aquak9:
What would the name be for 97 if it forms?

Next up is Harvey, if they name the one south of us. After that, it's Irene, Jose, Katia, and Lee.

so either Harvey or Irene, depending on which one gets named first.


Harvey, huh? cue up the rabbit graphic...
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It looks to me like 93L is moving just north of due west, around 285 degrees. If it keeps this up it may miss Nicaragua/Honduras, so would have more time to become a weak/moderate TS. Can't really see much more than that though.
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Good morning.

Here is Rob of Crown Weather with this mornings discussion of 93L and pre 97L.

Link
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Morning all. Looks busy. Everywhere but here. Getting a lil' parched. :) I'm in the -42.53 place.


Wow! that is dry! We are experieincing drought conditions in the lower Florida Keys also. I believe we are at 1/3 of our normal yearly rainfall. We did get about one inch, 2 days ago, and it helped to combat this outbreak of whitefly that is begining to infest and weaken many of our native plants
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as I said looklike 93L has stalled well it is helping 93L to develop more
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12324
Quoting KeyWestwx:
the GFS currently has a strong storm hugging the northern Cuban Coast in 6 day and heading through the Florida Straights. Lets hope that the norm of 'ever-changing paths' on these models holds true and the thing cuves out to open sea I can't deal with the preperation of a hurricane this season, here in Key West. What would the name be for 97 if it forms?


It depends on whether or not 93L becomes a storm. If it does, it would be Harvey, and pre-97L would be Irene, but if 93L doesn't develop, pre-97L would be Harvey.
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2477. aquak9
What would the name be for 97 if it forms?

Next up is Harvey, if they name the one south of us. After that, it's Irene, Jose, Katia, and Lee.

so either Harvey or Irene, depending on which one gets named first.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I'm waiting for some of those gorgeous October days. I do worry if we don't get at least a TS we will be in even more trouble with the drought. I can not believe I am hoping for a TS, but watching the farmers and ranchers around me losing everything...
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93L getting his grove on this is the nearest buoy pressure droping winds picking up 42057



Link
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12324
the GFS currently has a strong storm hugging the northern Cuban Coast in 6 day and heading through the Florida Straights. Lets hope that the norm of 'ever-changing paths' on these models holds true and the thing cuves out to open sea I can't deal with the preperation of a hurricane this season, here in Key West. What would the name be for 97 if it forms?
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Quoting aislinnpaps:
I hear you. I'm in the -45.03. I guess we're neighbors.


Looks like. Howdy neighbor. :) Maybe we'll get a cold front one day. Doesn't look like anything's coming from the other direction any time soon.
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2472. aquak9
G'morning bright-eyed dayshift; go get some rest, to night shift.

Gotta raise an eyebrow when even MY NWS mentions this. I think my NWS got outsourced to Utah or another country a long time ago...anyways, they mentioned it.

From JAX NWS Forecast Discussion:
OF SPECIAL NOTE...MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EXTREME S BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA TUE-WED TIME FRAME. DUE TO MODELS` PERSISTENCE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON SOMETHING FORMING...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE
RUNS CLOSELY.
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06z is a lot further south so far.
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the system still has to get by hispanola not as worried about this one as ike a few yrs ago
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4862
I hear you. I'm in the -45.03. I guess we're neighbors.
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Quoting Levi32:


It's already north of Barbados' latitude, and in all likelyhood it won't be much of a storm near the lesser Antilles, and that's assuming it actually does develop. The models may show consistency, but we need to see it actually start organizing west of 50W before we know that they are right.


Thanks Levi, but as of this morning, it looks to be now centered around 12.8N 38.5W
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Morning all. Looks busy. Everywhere but here. Getting a lil' parched. :) I'm in the -42.53 place.

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Quoting wn1995:
Wow, 00Z ecmwf is certainly something. I think we will see the AOI designated an invest sometime today.

93L continues to look better and better organized, and is firing off nice convection this morning, so I would not be surprised if it is designated td 8 sometime later.


Agree with both. TD8 this AM; 97L by the evening.

Infrared satellite appearances can be deceiving, but 93L looks to have possibly developed closed circulation, and it's drifting over some of the highest TCHP on the planet right now.

The CATL AOI should go up to 20%-30% at the next TWO, and given its bright future--consistent circulation and convection, decent atmospheric conditions, consistent multiple model support, the fact that it's already halfway across the ocean--I imagine it'll be classified sometime today.
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Good morning, all. Looks like things are heating up. By this evening the trolls will be out in force unfortunately.
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
340 AM EDT THU AUG 18 2011

.DISCUSSION...


LOOKING OUT TO THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT NEXT WEEK...GFS/ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR HISPANIOLA VICINITY TUE...THE SRN BAHAMAS ON
WED AND HAVING A CHANCE TO POSSIBLY AFFECT FL JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY
FORECAST PERIOD...ASSUMING THIS SYSTEM DOES INDEED DEVELOP AS THE
MODELS ARE INDICATING. WOULD NOT NORMALLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR
A TROPICAL SYSTEM AT THIS LONG TIME RANGE BUT THE MODELS ARE COMING
INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AND HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE POTENTIAL
OF A SYSTEM FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. AT THIS POINT...IT IS BEST TO
CONTINUE TO MAKE PREPARATIONS AS YOU NORMALLY WOULD AS WE ENTER THE
PEAK OF THE HURRICANE SEASON FROM MID AUG TO EARLY OCT AND KEEP UP
WITH LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT
WEEK.
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Quoting smuldy:
depends on the run, and its way far out to know given no storm no center and every other variable, i'm just freaking out cause i like to think myself fairly knowledgeable and it might, and it might be very bad when it does. But the key word there is might. It has to traverse the islands, the steering could change if it deepens slower (ie half the euro runs so far) and this hasn't even formed yet. Was just asking a couple of other informed people their takes and happen to be in the bullseye. As they say no need to freak out, yet, just pay attention over the next couple days. Especially to the Euro, if it jumps on board consistently, that is much more worrisome.


I think you are right. David comes to mind. Very powerful Carib. Hurricane came right up through the Islands causing significant damage and deaths. the COC passed within 75 miles of Dade & Broward counties and it hardly rained here. Likewise there have been others which were much worse. Of course other factors undetermined yet can also play a role. ULL's have been rampid this year all over the atlantic. Things can look real bad, then low and behold a ULL develops and all of a sudden a system is under 20knt sheer or more. SO MUCH can happen. Specific areas should not be overly concerned until a system is within a 5 day forecast period. Even then, nothing is in stone. At this point this system hasn't even developed and its kinda been an odd year.
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06z GFS; 4 days/96 hours:

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93L is looking good and looks like it stalled seems to be stuck at 16N 78W
new steering map are now showing a WNW-NW flow now wow thing are going to get real ugly really fast wow I can't belive this is happening
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12324
2460. smuldy
Quoting islander101010:
right front quad goes right over miami?
depends on the run, and its way far out to know given no storm no center and every other variable, i'm just freaking out cause i like to think myself fairly knowledgeable and it might, and it might be very bad when it does. But the key word there is might. It has to traverse the islands, the steering could change if it deepens slower (ie half the euro runs so far) and this hasn't even formed yet. Was just asking a couple of other informed people their takes and happen to be in the bullseye. As they say no need to freak out, yet, just pay attention over the next couple days. Especially to the Euro, if it jumps on board consistently, that is much more worrisome.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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