Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Quoting whepton3:


It's certainly a ways out... I posted to someone last night that the relative consistency run to run and model to model is definitely an attention grabber.

I have noticed with some amusement that the local mets have been mentioning "a CATL tropical wave with the potential to be a TD or TS near Puerto Rico next week,"

Seems they're planting the flag so that if the models pan out, they can say they've been telling you about it for a week.

Groundwork for the inevitable proof of performance promos to follow the storm.

I'm sure Miami's Fox station, channel 7, already has it a threantening hurricane!!!LOL
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HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

Excerpt:

FINALLY THERE IS BETTER THAN AVERAGE CLUSTERING FOR A DAY 7 FCST WITH THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEM FCST TO REACH CUBA OR THE BAHAMAS AT THAT TIME. THE
VARIOUS DETAIL ISSUES MENTIONED ABOVE LEAD TO FAVORING A BLEND OF
THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS THRU THE PERIOD. THIS SOLN
IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOMMODATE EXTRAPOLATION OF YDAYS
COORDINATED FCST WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM REACHING THE
BAHAMAS/CUBA... WITH MODEST ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A TRACK A LITTLE
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE OF THE CURRENT SPREAD.


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Quoting stormpetrol:


Good morning all, there is saying "red sky at morning , sailors take warning, red sky at night , sailors delight"
Yeah but the sky is pink, not red.
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Quoting Waltanater:
From which system exactly, 93L?


Not 93L...no concern for USA....next week mid to late for Atlantic system....potential.
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Quoting Waltanater:
From which system exactly, 93L?



no for per 97L you need too larn too follow the bloger post commets when they post the mode runs here and you no what storm it is for
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115103
Quoting Matt74:
I like patrick vaughn but i can't believe he would say something that irresponsible.


He was basing it on long range ECMWF. I emailed it to a friend went back and found it. Would be something if it turned out to be right this far away.

Two hot spots in the Tropics will be monitored for development during the next 7 days.

The first is currently over the Eastern Caribbean. This has a chance to develop and become Harvey. Upper-level high pressure over Texas will block this system from moving into the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Instead, it is expected to move generally westward towards Belize then the Yucatan and finally into the Bay of Campeche and Mexico - far to our south.

A second area in the far Eastern Atlantic is forecasted to move towards the northern Leeward Islands on the 21st of August. This could become hurricane Irene. By the 25th, the system could be off shore from Miami. A trough of low pressure in the upper-levels will likely turn the storm back out to sea.

Looking at the one-month European Model, we see no systems moving into the Gulf of Mexico during the next month. Many of the upcoming storms appear to be "fish" storms...never making a landfall. In fact, by September 10th, the season's first decent cold front may move into Southeast Texas which could hasten the end of the hurricane season.
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2553. wn1995
Quoting Tazmanian:



sorry but that was a littel too march and your forget that photo was too me any way rate R and we got a lot of little kids that come here looking for info about the weather and i dont think there partins would be too happy if they came on and saw that


The Dark Knight was PG-13! LOL :D
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Quoting WarEagle8:
What is the timeframe on this model's pick at FL?
From which system exactly, 93L?
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Obviously, within a massive swath of rainfall covering all of the Caribbean and most of the US, there's a small Texas sized blob of white.


Lol. That is Texas.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i hate too say this but they are well overe due for a major hit
as a runner up to storm w you know climatology is one of the most important factors involved unfornately wu did not listen to the voters and over rule the democratic process and elect your character
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4589
2549. Matt74
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Patrick Vaughn on channel 12. Looks like things a little scary up Jasper way.

Update: Mandatory evacuations in Jasper Co. due to forest fire Link
By Scott Mitchell

The fires in Jasper and Tyler counties have consumed more than 600 acres and are currently forty percent contained. Two of the three fires have now burned together. Fire officials are starting a "burnout," which would involve officials setting fire within a control line to prevent further spread of the fire.

The authorities have issued a mandatory evacuation for County Roads 32, 41 39, 40, 34 and a voluntary evacuation for County Road 29.

The Texas Forest Service says firefighters are working to contain the fires burning within miles from one another. Each fire has consumed over 100 acres a piece and currently 50 homes are in danger and are being evacuated. The forest service has helicopters working the scene and the fire is still growing...

I like patrick vaughn but i can't believe he would say something that irresponsible.
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6z NOGAPS FWIW. Deepens the wave quicker clips the Islands but becomes a bigger threat to the SE US coast. This one is far out there. Could go either way.Link
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Quoting ncstorm:
the islands stand to get a lot of rain per the 6Z GFS


US..



Obviously, within a massive swath of rainfall covering all of the Caribbean and most of the US, there's a small Texas sized blob of white.
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From the local met: "Remember that wave in the central Atlantic I'm been telling you about since last week...Well it's one to watch"
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2545. ncstorm
the islands stand to get a lot of rain per the 6Z GFS


US..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
have the hh found anything in 93l, hat does every one think the 8 oclock chance will be, will we have our 8th straight trpical storm? after all it is 70% chance
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Quoting KeyWestwx:

I used to live in Boca. I went addison mizner elementary school a very loooooong time ago. It's intersting how on this site one post-mate from Jacksonville, to Boca, down to me in Key West all start to worry about these storms. Its such a crap shoot. When Andrew hit South of Miami, Key West only experiended a soft breeze and cloudy skies and as the crow flies the smaller hurricane was not far off. Though we must always be prepared!!!!


It's certainly a ways out... I posted to someone last night that the relative consistency run to run and model to model is definitely an attention grabber.

I have noticed with some amusement that the local mets have been mentioning "a CATL tropical wave with the potential to be a TD or TS near Puerto Rico next week,"

Seems they're planting the flag so that if the models pan out, they can say they've been telling you about it for a week.

Groundwork for the inevitable proof of performance promos to follow the storm.
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anyone think the system in atlantic will be tagged an invest today??
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Quoting KeyWestwx:

I used to live in Boca. I went addison mizner elementary school a very loooooong time ago. It's intersting how on this site one post-mate from Jacksonville, to Boca, down to me in Key West all start to worry about these storms. Its such a crap shoot. When Andrew hit South of Miami, Key West only experiended a soft breeze and cloudy skies and as the crow flies the smaller hurricane was not far off. Though we must always be prepared!!!!


Yep. And you just stated a perfect reason why we should all be prepared. It's the same way here on the TX/LA coast. We've been called to evacuate I think about 5 times. Beginning with Andrew and ending with Ike. We had 2 hits here. Rita and Ike. But I left 5 times. Just never know.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
That's what I was thinking. Pretty overcast too and we had some good rain in the overnight hours.

brezzy with clear skies in Key West - possible storms tracking in for the South
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2538. MahFL
Convection is slowing increasing on pre 97L.
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Quoting islander101010:
rare to get a major make landfall in the big bend area



i hate too say this but they are well overe due for a major hit
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115103
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The sky is pink here this morning.


Good morning all, there is saying "red sky at morning , sailors take warning, red sky at night , sailors delight"
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7862
morning.....Did anyone notice the 06 run of the HWRF on 93L that at the end of the loop it brings in the atlantic system into the picture...kinda amazing considering it isnt even an invest yet.
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Quoting WarEagle8:
What is the timeframe on this model's pick at FL?
rare to get a major make landfall in the big bend area
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4589
From the NWS in my hometown(Wilmington, NC)---- WARM MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE SUN
INTO MON ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH AS PIEDMONT TROUGH
REMAINS PRONOUNCED INLAND ON SUN. BY LATE MON INTO TUES SHORTWAVE
MAY PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH. LATEST MODEL RUNS KEEP FRONT
LINGERING AROUND TUES INTO WED INSTEAD OF PUSHING DRIER AIR IN.
WILL HAVE TO FOLLOW CLOSELY TO SEE HOW THIS PANS OUT. ALSO MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
FLORIDA BY NEXT FRI.
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Quoting whepton3:


Morning all... just getting on this morning... I may borrow that guy's lucky coin to decide when to go buy a helmet here in Boca Raton.

Troubling models....

I used to live in Boca. I went addison mizner elementary school a very loooooong time ago. It's intersting how on this site one post-mate from Jacksonville, to Boca, down to me in Key West all start to worry about these storms. Its such a crap shoot. When Andrew hit South of Miami, Key West only experiended a soft breeze and cloudy skies and as the crow flies the smaller hurricane was not far off. Though we must always be prepared!!!!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok I am using this Link for the models I have it open on a tab and every time it updates I look at the old one then hit the refresh button to get the new ones so on this 06Z run I saw the BAM,S/M/D, the CLP5, the XTRP, and the TVCN shifted N the BAM""" 00Z had it curving abit South of due west into Hon/Nic now 06Z it spreads N of there same with the others except the CLP5 which had it going through Cen. Belize now Northern Belize/Southern Yucatan


I wouldnt put to much weight on those models. 93 looks to be closed off and likely is a td...at least IMO only. I am more interested in dynamic models. At this point havent seen any suggesting any northward component. 06Z GFS has 93 gone...in two days.
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Quoting Ribbitman:

I can smell and see heavy smoke here on Toledo Bend..


Ah, yep, that's not to far from you. Let's hope they get a handle on it soon.
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Quoting aislinnpaps:


Could that portend to 'red sky in morning, sailors take warning'? At least it's a pretty morning there. Still dark here.
That's what I was thinking. Pretty overcast too and we had some good rain in the overnight hours.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Major hurricane into Tampa and points northward on the 06z run...


What is the timeframe on this model's pick at FL?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok I am using this Link for the models I have it open on a tab and every time it updates I look at the old one then hit the refresh button to get the new ones so on this 06Z run I saw the BAM,S/M/D, the CLP5, the XTRP, and the TVCN shifted N the BAM""" 00Z had it curving abit South of due west into Hon/Nic now 06Z it spreads N of there same with the others except the CLP5 which had it going through Cen. Belize now Northern Belize/Southern Yucatan
CLP is not actually a model but has to do with climatology.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Patrick Vaughn on channel 12. Looks like things a little scary up Jasper way.

Update: Mandatory evacuations in Jasper Co. due to forest fire Link
By Scott Mitchell

The fires in Jasper and Tyler counties have consumed more than 600 acres and are currently forty percent contained. Two of the three fires have now burned together. Fire officials are starting a "burnout," which would involve officials setting fire within a control line to prevent further spread of the fire.

The authorities have issued a mandatory evacuation for County Roads 32, 41 39, 40, 34 and a voluntary evacuation for County Road 29.

The Texas Forest Service says firefighters are working to contain the fires burning within miles from one another. Each fire has consumed over 100 acres a piece and currently 50 homes are in danger and are being evacuated. The forest service has helicopters working the scene and the fire is still growing...


I can smell and see heavy smoke here on Toledo Bend..
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2523. MahFL
I'm not sure why the models forcast such a strong system to form as it runs over most of the Islands, surely land interaction will weaken it ?
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Quoting Ribbitman:

I'm in the 45.03 and counting,burning up and drying up.


About the same here. And they dropped our burn ban. Sigh.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The sky is pink here this morning.


Could that portend to 'red sky in morning, sailors take warning'? At least it's a pretty morning there. Still dark here.
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Quoting barotropic:


Which model are you speaking of and how much further north

ok I am using this Link for the models I have it open on a tab and every time it updates I look at the old one then hit the refresh button to get the new ones so on this 06Z run I saw the BAM,S/M/D, the CLP5, the XTRP, and the TVCN shifted N the BAM""" 00Z had it curving abit South of due west into Hon/Nic now 06Z it spreads N of there same with the others except the CLP5 which had it going through Cen. Belize now Northern Belize/Southern Yucatan
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12024
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I thought the doc liked The Dark Knight? LOL. Fay was the joker afterall.. might aswell have Harvey Two-Face.



sorry but that was a littel too march and your forget that photo was too me any way rate R and we got a lot of little kids that come here looking for info about the weather and i dont think there partins would be too happy if they came on and saw that
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115103
The sky is pink here this morning.
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2517. ncstorm
Quoting tornadolarkin:


I noticed that. It seems rather odd that that would happen given that it doesnt even seem to make landfall.


It did it on last run as well..showed a 973 mb pressure off the coast of Florida and then the next frame showed it weak and moved it west of cuba..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15288
Quoting Tazmanian:



hey can you like re move that


A i dont link the photo


and B its a mkeing my a little sick by looking at it


and C you could get a bannd for postin it and i want too see you get a bannd


I thought the doc liked The Dark Knight? LOL. Fay was the joker afterall.. might aswell have Harvey Two-Face.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24021
Quoting ncstorm:
why does the ECWMF have a mb pressure of 959 in the 216 hour frame and then a 1012 mb pressure in the 240 frame and actually moves it south..whats going on with the model runs?


I noticed that. It seems rather odd that that would happen given that it doesnt even seem to make landfall.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


I could've done without seeing that this morning. LOL
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2513. MahFL
"OF SPECIAL NOTE...MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE EXTREME S BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA TUE-WED TIME FRAME. DUE TO MODELS` PERSISTENCE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS ON SOMETHING FORMING...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FUTURE RUNS CLOSELY."

Woot ! we are DOOM !!!!

I live just SW of JAX.

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Quoting aislinnpaps:


I had no idea about this fire. Jasper is only an hour away.


Surprised me too. Looks like it's in about the area with the worst deficit on that chart. Hope they stop it soon.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:




Morning all... just getting on this morning... I may borrow that guy's lucky coin to decide when to go buy a helmet here in Boca Raton.

Troubling models....
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Quoting CybrTeddy:





hey can you like re move that


A i dont link the photo


and B its a mkeing my a little sick by looking at it


and C you could get a bannd for postin it and i want too see you get a bannd
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115103

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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