Texas heat wave smashes more records; 93L more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:26 PM GMT on August 17, 2011

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Texas' Texas-sized drought and heat wave is setting new records, as August temperatures regularly topping 100° continue to impact most of the state. The high temperature hit 102° at the Houston Intercontinental Airport yesterday, a record for the date, and the 16th consecutive day of 100°+ heat. The 16-day streak is a new record. The previous record was 14 straight days, ending on July 19, 1980.

The low temperature yesterday morning at Dallas/Fort Worth International was 86°--the all-time highest minimum temperature recorded there. This is the 4th time this summer Dallas has had an 86° minimum temperature, with the other dates being July 26, August 3, and August 4. Prior to this year, the hottest minimum temperature ever recorded in Dallas was 85° on September 1, 1939 (which they also matched this summer on July 25, August 7, and again this morning.) Thus Dallas has matched or exceeded their all-time hottest minimum temperature from previous years seven times this year. It's extremely rare for a station with a long observation history spanning more than fifty years to break an all-time record seven times in one year; if anyone can find an example of this in the past, I'd love to hear about it. The National Climatic Data Center records page is a good place to look. Dallas has had 40 days with a minimum temperature of 80° or higher this year, breaking the previous record of 39 days, set in 1998. Dallas had a streak of 40 straight days with a maximum temperature above 100° which ended August 10, good for 2nd place all-time, next to a 42-day streak in 1980.


Figure 1. The amount of rain needed to break the Texas drought is in excess of 15 inches (purple colors) over most of the state. This year's drought is officially Texas' worst one-year drought on record. Image credit: NOAA/NWS.

According to the National Climatic Data Center, twelve other major airports set or tied their all-time high minimum temperature two or more times this summer: San Angelo, TX (four times); Lake Charles, LA (three times); Bristol, TN; Indianapolis, IN; Trenton, NJ; Newark, NJ; West Palm Beach, FL; Shreveport, LA; Beckley, WV; Texarkana, AR; Lake Charles, LA; Lubbock, TX; plus, Fort Worth Meacham Field. This year's total of fourteen airports that broke their all-time high minimum temperature multiple times this summer is similar to last year's total of ten sites. Most notable last year was West Palm Beach, Florida, which tied it's all-time high minimum temperature of 83° five times in 2010.

Fifteen major airports have tied or broken their all-time highest temperature multiple times this summer: Tyler, TX (three times); Tallahassee, FL (three times); Fort Smith, AR; Harrison, AR; Tulsa, OK; McAlester, OK; Longview, TX; and Oklahoma City, OK, Ypsilanti, MI; Altoona, PA; Dubois, PA; Salisbury, MD; Raton, NM; Amarillo, TX; and Dalhart, TX. For comparison, only three stations broke their all-time maximum temperature record multiple times in 2010: Wilmington, DE; Norfolk, VA; and Richmond, VA.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A westward-moving tropical wave in the Central Caribbean a few hundred miles south of Hispaniola, Invest 93L, has increased in organization overnight, building up a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms. Low-level spiral bands have begun to form on all sides of the storm this morning. There are currently no signs of a surface circulation, though there is plenty of large-scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L and has infiltrated the center of the disturbance, giving 93L a doughnut-like appearance. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so this dry air should gradually mix out today and allow 93L to continue to organize. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon at 2pm EDT to see if a tropical depression is forming.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti this afternoon and to Jamaica tonight. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, and the storm will bring heavy rains to Northern Honduras and Northeast Nicaragua. These rains will spread to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. The latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean on Thursday. All of the models agree that the ridge of high pressure steering 93L to the west will remain strong, forcing the storm into a landfall Friday in Northeast Nicaragua or Northeast Honduras. It is possible that 93L will have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before then, though landfall as a tropical storm would be more likely, given the dry air that 93L needs to overcome. Regardless of development, the storm will bring very heavy rains of 4 - 8 inches or more to Nicaragua and Honduras. These rains are likely to cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. NHC gave 93L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning in their 8am outlook; I'd put these odds at 50% now, given the continued increase in organization seen on satellite images.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the tropical wave 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave near 14°N 34°W, about 500 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa, is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph. This wave has little heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it due to dry air, but an impressive amount of large-scale spin is obvious in visible satellite loops. This wave is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Three of our four reliable models for predicting tropical storm genesis predict that this wave could develop into a tropical depression sometime Friday through Sunday. A west-northwest track through the Northeast Caribbean bringing the storm near Puerto Rico by Sunday or Monday is favored by most of the models.

Jeff Masters

Tanker Drop (anm8ed)
This fire destroyed 15 homes and burned about 30 acres. Was nothuge, but was in a populated area.
Tanker Drop
Jet Ski dock (BEENE)
Business is slow here this summer.
Jet Ski dock
The Marina (BEENE)
Lake Houston is dangerously low as well. They will be draining 12inches of water to ease the water shortage in Houston
The Marina

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Morning All.

GFS still status quo I see.
Member Since: August 19, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 5043
Quoting USAFwxguy:
I think 93L will track north of Honduras, almost certainly to me. Distance north will really be a factor in how much it can intensify, further away will allow for more intensification.

Far Western Caribbean is very tricky and dangerous, and many unexpected things can happen out there with regards to intensification. Not saying it will, but of any place in the ATL basin, the far Western Caribbean is certainly the place to expect the unexpected.
If it does get better organized and go through RI which is not unknown to happen where it is now, what would be your thoughts on track ?
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2658. NASA101
Just to summarize the 00Z and 06Z models on the pre-97L:

UKMET and CMC keep it a little weaker and hence it tracks south of Hispaniola moving WNW, while GFS, UKMET and EURO has to more north hitting either the West/East coast of Florida.

My idea is that it will stay a little weaker approaching the Antilles just like 93L and will track a little more WEST
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 276
surfing a bit did anyone see gov perry from texas (wears alot of makeup) is now bringing the anti global warming to his platform? think its bad in here wait to the debates upcoming
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4360
ATCF says the pressure has dropped again for 93L, but it's still listed as just a "disturbance":

AL, 93, 2011081812, , BEST, 0, 158N, 794W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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any way gotta go see you later .
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2653. Jax82
Nice large Eddy right smack in the middle of the Gulf. Not good for the peak of the season approaching, if anything sneaks into the Gulf it could spell trouble.

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Quoting jpsb:
I have seen to many systems fail to develop or develop very slowly this year, 93L being the current example. Something(s) is killing tropical systems and I don't think we know what that something(s) is. So I am dubious about this new systems' chances, but I will be watching, curious to see if this one fails to develop too. This will be a great indicator of the models current state.



well i feel the models were right on with 93L for days.....they predicted it would be weak, and because of that it would take the southern straight line into cent. america....it was a classic model of historic tracking....
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Quoting floodzonenc:
Did you take this pic?  It is beautiful!


Oh, thanks. Yes, I did take it, on the side of a main north-south avenue near my home. I have about a million weather photos (I've even sold a few).
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
Can really see the low cloud circulation (broad) in the RGB loop

Link


Looking a lot better now though. Sorry I'm about a day behind on everything. Haven't seen a loop in 2 days. :)
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Quoting stormpetrol:


Really not sure to be honest, looks like it will clear Nic/Hon border now, also looks like it might be stalling a bit, if that is the case, that would be the worse case scenario for us, anyway always be prepared, its a possibility we could experience some minimal TS conditions, but one never really knows for sure!
yeah i was thinking the same however looking at last frames it seems that there is a northern movement.
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2645. Matt74
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


He was basing it on long range ECMWF. I emailed it to a friend went back and found it. Would be something if it turned out to be right this far away.

Two hot spots in the Tropics will be monitored for development during the next 7 days.

The first is currently over the Eastern Caribbean. This has a chance to develop and become Harvey. Upper-level high pressure over Texas will block this system from moving into the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Instead, it is expected to move generally westward towards Belize then the Yucatan and finally into the Bay of Campeche and Mexico - far to our south.

A second area in the far Eastern Atlantic is forecasted to move towards the northern Leeward Islands on the 21st of August. This could become hurricane Irene. By the 25th, the system could be off shore from Miami. A trough of low pressure in the upper-levels will likely turn the storm back out to sea.

Looking at the one-month European Model, we see no systems moving into the Gulf of Mexico during the next month. Many of the upcoming storms appear to be "fish" storms...never making a landfall. In fact, by September 10th, the season's first decent cold front may move into Southeast Texas which could hasten the end of the hurricane season.
Thanks for that post At Home.I just think that is a little too far out to be speculating like that. I gotta think that he knows that too. Our season usually ends by the beginning of october. When is the last time we had a decent cold front in early September?
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2644. MahFL
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2642. jpsb
Quoting smuldy:
i hope i'm wrong, but i am anything but a 'modelcaster' yet these models have me deeply concerned (and i hear you on the summer thing...grad school doesnt start til the 12th for me and i still bartend as much as i can til it does so im always up til 6am except days off like today)
I have seen to many systems fail to develop or develop very slowly this year, 93L being the current example. Something(s) is killing tropical systems and I don't think we know what that something(s) is. So I am dubious about this new systems' chances, but I will be watching, curious to see if this one fails to develop too. This will be a great indicator of the models current state.
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2641. msphar
Good morning all,

Is the cAtl going to be a repeat of 93L ? I'm rooting for the "dry air entrainment" and the track remaining low!
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Quoting sporteguy03:

I asked that last night, this seems to be the only limiting factor. NE DR though is lowlands. All the models develop it and I do feel it will develop, as for as land interaction that is the unknown. CMC, ECMWF, UKM, GFS,NoGaps all develop this wave that is very consistent.


23 is way out of touch if he thinks its going to be an Emily scenario with all due respect. I use to respect his analysis but here lately he is one of the biggest downcasters around.
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Quoting hotrods:
Can,t get it to post here for some reason but thw NWS in Melbourne, there discussion are ready talking about pre 97L affecting Florida and to keep tabs on it.



what scares me is how all the models are lining up and the vort map models and moisture map models also show conducive environ. for 97L in 48 hrs and counting down....

but the scariest part of all i feel is how the whole scenario looks absolutely neutral (no nina or nino) + the lack of any troughs suggests this is headed CONUS through the red hot gulf stream....yikes....


as far as the models discounting the land shear from the isles it may be that the models are picking up on its rapid development, thus reducing the overall effect of land shear on the entire system by the time hispanola can come into play.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
hey stormp what's your thinking on 93L, a run for the GOM and a rain maker for us or just a non event for us ?


Really not sure to be honest, looks like it will clear Nic/Hon border now, also looks like it might be stalling a bit, if that is the case, that would be the worse case scenario for us, anyway always be prepared, its a possibility we could experience some minimal TS conditions, but one never really knows for sure!
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Quoting sullivanweather:
Waltanater,

That's simply the way Taz types out his comments here. He's been here day in, day out, tropical season, snow season, discussing the weather. No one else seems to have a problem with it.
Thats still not an excuse for his bad attitude
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so some characters have multiple handles on this blog? 93 is getting really close now
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4360
2632. hotrods
Sorry about the miss spelling, see my grammer isn,t that great in the morning either! I also enjoy reading Taz's comments as well, i don't post to much but been here for a while.
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2631. Jax82
Gettin Toasty.

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Quoting Autistic2:
WOW went to bed and the blog was kina sensitive, wake up and it appears to be same.

too many kids on this thing that need to mature.
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2627. hotrods
Can,t get it to post here for some reason but thw NWS in Melbourne, there discussion are ready talking about pre 97L affecting Florida and to keep tabs on it.
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hey stormp what's your thinking on 93L, a run for the GOM and a rain maker for us or just a non event for us ?
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Quoting kshipre1:
hello,

pardon me if I sound strange and obviously Patrick Vaughn knows more than me but with the near certainty that a big High is going to build westward near the eastern seaboard by the 25th or 26th, I have a hard time seeing how this storm could recurve out to sea

I know models change often and the storm has not even formed yet but a recurve? While it might be possible if the High is not strong enough or west enough in the atlantic but still nearly everyone is saying a strong ridge building back in.

Of course we all hope a trough recurves this thing out to sea especially with the potential intensity which is being forecasted.

Personally, I think Rob Lightbown at Crown Weather is really good. of course, he could be wrong to but in his daily tropical discussions, he has never once mentioned the possibility of a trough of low pressure. And this is something any forecaster could see in advance.


You could be right. That was a few days ago he wrote that. I like Patrick and Rob. Both are pretty good. Both make mistakes. And if I recall correctly, both have owned up to them too. :) Thanks for the reminder about Crown. Haven't read his today. I tried to get on his Email thing just never has worked for me. Sigh. I'm sooo technologically impaired. ;-)
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anyone have good links to pre-Invest 97L they would like to share?
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WOW went to bed and the blog was kina sensitive, wake up and it appears to be same.

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2621. MahFL
hey ! im' the speling anf grammer policeman !

a dn typing...........
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Quoting Waltanater:
Yeah but the sky is pink, not red.


Big deal, whatever, if it suits you , it sure as hell tickles me, I'm not going argue about the color of the sky if that's what you're looking. I was simply quoting a very old saying, enough said!
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Quoting hurricane23:
06z GFS totally discounts terrain effects of Hispaniola and Cuba, which is why i cannot buy into the forecast yet. Looks to be an "Emily" scenario to me.

I asked that last night, this seems to be the only limiting factor. NE DR though is lowlands. All the models develop it and I do feel it will develop, as for as land interaction that is the unknown. CMC, ECMWF, UKM, GFS,NoGaps all develop this wave that is very consistent.
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I was greeted this morning by a healthy CB (w/ pileus) percolating over Florida Bay. If I had the time, I'd have gone 'spout hunting, but, alas, duty calls...

Neapolitan

Expect TD8 no later than this afternoon, if not this morning.
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Good Morning all
I see a red 80%
If this hits CA its done. Way to may mountians. coffee
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Quoting ncstorm:
guys, we are going to have a lot people come out of lurking and new handles created because of this potential storm affecting the islands and conus..with that being said, please be kind and considerate when people ask questions..patience is the key here..

Well said! And remember that everyone has their own sense of "humor" and don't take it as a personal attack and then feel the need to "defend" the other person. Opinions on approaching storms are what a lot of people give here and...it's THEIR opinion. If you don't agree with it, move on to the next comment.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
Link to buoy that should be in path, or within zone of influence, of 93L... current report is kind of old, so hopefully it will update

Link



If you click on the RSS feed by the name of the bouy you will see the latest updated data
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Quoting floodzonenc:
I beg to differ.  Taz's tone was "pissy" and condenscending.  Walt just said what many are thinking.  I don't mind if someone's grammar isn't "all that", but don't go taking a superior tone with others. 

Thanks Flood for your comments. You hit it right on the head. You know if Taz man's up and apologizes somewhat to me I would have more respect for him at this point. I will also take back what I said about him, but only if he does attempt to make ammends.
Member Since: May 16, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1455
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hey guys.

*Looks at all the craziness going on*

Bye guys!


Haha, ditto!
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Hey guys.

*Looks at all the craziness going on*

Bye guys!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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