Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Thanks guys... always a help... can't look at models very well on the phone.

I suppose here in S. FL we're really in a wait and see 'til something possibly spins up Sunday-Monday.
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3044. msphar
My 26th Pottery this go around, and yours ?
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Quoting Jedkins01:
South Florida has been hit a lot in the past, but dominating steering currents still support tropical cyclones to not hit Florida. Until that changes while a hurricane is fast approaching, there likely won't be much of a FL hurricane threat.


Actually if this wave does develope it appears at this time that a threat to the SE is quite possible based on the pattern projected.
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3042. WxLogic
Quoting whepton3:


Morning all..

In light of what you've said about the unreliability of the intensity forecast...

The longer this wave stays weak, could it start to trend the models back south more? Or are models still suggesting organization past 50-55W?

I guess if it gets past that, track could start to change?


Sure... a weaker system would tend to stay further S. Given that we're still 10+ days from such a depiction in the models, then expect them to change.

In regards organization... so far this season tropical disturbances have been able to gain some sort of better organization once they past 50W to 55W. The degree of organization with P17L after passing those longitudes would dictate the possibility of a more poleward track than that of a westerly track.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
3041. PTXer
Quoting pottery:

Good Moaning!
No development of ANYTHING is permitted around 60W this week or weekend.
Celebrating something special on Saturday, and clouds are NOT invited.
Please comply!


Hope you get a good weekend for your celebration Pottery. Congrats on whatever you are celebrating! (even if it's just making it to another weekend)
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3040. ncstorm
climatolgically speaking..other products are down..

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15706
Quoting whepton3:


Morning all..

In light of what you've said about the unreliability of the intensity forecast...

The longer this wave stays weak, could it start to trend the models back south more? Or are models still suggesting organization past 50-55W?

I guess if it gets past that, track could start to change?


Almost all globals have a strengthing cyclone once past 50-55west. GFS,UKMET,CMC and the european. As tpc on the caribbean dicussion mentioned it is indeed interesting that the UKMET also appears on board with this.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
IF you are responding to me, show me where what bigeasy posted is from Crowne Weather...
The comment by bigeasy is NOT from Crown Weather. But the comment from
Mcluvincane is from Crown Weather.
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Is anybody going to post this?

000
ABNT20 KNHC 171136
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION
AND PRESSURES HAVE NOT FALLEN OVER THIS REGION. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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3035. pottery
Quoting msphar:
I don't care about 93L, it is history to me. My eyes are looking further East. 7 - 14 days of peace gets me through an anniversary that I'd like not disrupted by weather.


Join the Club!
I'm with you on that....
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Quoting islander101010:
s. fl. gets hit alot 1920 30s 40s they got lucky with ike. dont see why it could not happen again
South Florida has been hit a lot in the past, but dominating steering currents still support tropical cyclones to not hit Florida. Until that changes while a hurricane is fast approaching, there likely won't be much of a FL hurricane threat.

Some laugh at me for saying that. But I'm just sticking to my guns because of what I know. So far, those who mock me have been wrong and my forecast turned right.

Now, the models have shown some consistency in wanting to break down the pattern which has kept tropical cyclones away from Florida. The thing is, they've been doing this for weeks in the long term, but then the models back off when you actual get within model accuracy range. What we will have to watch for, is if models agree more and more in the near term on a steering shift. Otherwise you're just gonna be worrying about the GFS spinning up hurricanes and slamming them into Florida at 200 hours. Personally I'd save your worries for when they are actually needed.


Could later in the season become scary? Of course! We all know September almost always becomes way more active. Additionally the steering could change by then allowing hurricanes to frequently threaten the Southeast. But like I said, these are all big if's, no need to panic, its a waste.
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Quoting msphar:
Crowne Weather is not exactly a blogger. A lot of people rely on them to provide good forecasts.


I realise that. But their TWD mentions the ULL to the SW of 93L which has been developing the last 24 hours or so and may very well sheer 93L and clearly limit its development.
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3032. msphar
I don't care about 93L, it is history to me. My eyes are looking further East. 7 - 14 days of peace gets me through an anniversary that I'd like not disrupted by weather.

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Quoting WxLogic:


I agree with you... I've personally haven't seen GFS being so consistent (track wise) as no model is good intensity wise in 4 to a little over 4 runs straight already.

Will be interesting if 12Z continues.


Morning all..

In light of what you've said about the unreliability of the intensity forecast...

The longer this wave stays weak, could it start to trend the models back south more? Or are models still suggesting organization past 50-55W?

I guess if it gets past that, track could start to change?
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Indeed a bit worrisome as the 00z UKMET is also on board here with development close to 50-55west.
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Quoting mcluvincane:





I mentioned the apparent dev of the ULL yesterday and again late last night and as a matter of fact 30 minutes ago again. I saw it just begin. to spin up yesterday. I was shut down right away by some of the regulars when I posted my observation...including last night and some ignored the post and continued to discuss how good 93L looked. I mean these guys were some of the , what I perceive to be "top dogs" on here (not levi by the way!!). Frankly I am sometimes baffled that so many in here seem to know a lot, post a lot and and to be honest, I hate to say it, dont apparently have the ability to simply "observe" something for what it is.
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Quoting WxLogic:
Over the past 6HR to 9HR, P17L has been consolidating its 850MB VORT:





Which correlates to an increased organization at low level:



But I would believe NHC would mark it as an INVEST once it passes 50W where the environment should start getting conductive for further development.


It's not likely to develop due to unfavorable upper level conditions ahead of it and should it develop some it will recurve out into the North Atlantic. NO threat to the US. See my post from earlier.
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Quoting msphar:
Crowne Weather is not exactly a blogger. A lot of people rely on them to provide good forecasts.


That is most definitely not from Crown Weather.

Link

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3026. ncstorm
Quoting msphar:
Crowne Weather is not exactly a blogger. A lot of people rely on them to provide good forecasts.


them? its only one guy..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15706
Quoting msphar:
Crowne Weather is not exactly a blogger. A lot of people rely on them to provide good forecasts.
IF you are responding to me, show me where what bigeasy posted is from Crowne Weather...
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3024. msphar
Crowne Weather is not exactly a blogger. A lot of people rely on them to provide good forecasts.
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hi. I would like to know what P17L is. Is it a tropical wave? And can I have a link to where this is mentioned?


P17L is a pouch or "marsupial", see explanation
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.
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this season could have more home grown storms forming past 50 - 60 west which could mean more threats to the US coast IMO.
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Quoting msphar:
7 to 14 days of peace that is wonderful news.
that is not from the NHC. That is that blogger's ridiculous BS...regardless of whether it ever develops or not, 93L is not moving WSW or SW. He/She is a troll looking for their breakfast...
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Quoting Bobbyweather:

Hi. I would like to know what P17L is. Is it a tropical wave? And can I have a link to where this is mentioned?


http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/storms2011.html
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Quoting WxLogic:


I agree with you... I've personally haven't seen GFS being so consistent (track wise) as no model is good intensity wise in 4 to a little over 4 runs straight already.

Will be interesting if 12Z continues.


It will change, I don't even know why the GFS taking a hurricane into Florida at over 200 hours is even worth glancing at.
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3017. WxLogic
Over the past 6HR to 9HR, P17L has been consolidating its 850MB VORT:





Which correlates to an increased organization at low level:



But I would believe NHC would mark it as an INVEST once it passes 50W where the environment should start getting conductive for further development.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
3016. SLU
CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TODAY N OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W AT 00Z AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SW N
ATLC. THE 0134 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG NE WINDS N OF 15N TO
HISPANIOLA AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A
SLOWER TRACK TO THIS SYSTEM AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND IT HAS INCREASED POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
THINKING LEANS TOWARD THE 12Z/16 ECMWF WHICH WAS STRONGER WITH
THE SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z GFS...SHOWING A CLOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU EVENING. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE MADE TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE BASED ON THE 00Z
ECMWF COMING IN NOW. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUN. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION
NEAR THIS WAVE...WHICH WAS NEAR 30W AT 00Z...WILL WILL STICK
WITH THE A WEAKER FORECAST THAN THE 00Z GFS WHICH DEVELOPS A
1005 MB TROPICAL STORM OUT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF
BY SUN NIGHT. IT IS A LITTLE WORRISOME THAT THE 00Z UKMET IS
NEARLY AS STRONG AT THAT TIME AND CLOSES THE LOW OFF FASTER THAN
THE GFS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
FORECAST.


TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...
BUOY 41043 IN THE NW PORTION OF THE ZONE REPORTED 19 KT E WINDS
AND 8 FT SEAS AT 03Z WITH BUOY 41044 NEAR 22N59W SHOWING 17 KT
AND 8 FT SEAS AND SHIP A8IN9 ALSO REPORTING 8 FT SEAS AND 15 KT
WINDS AT THE SAME TIME. THESE FRESH E WINDS BEHIND THE TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 70W AT 00Z SHOULD DISSIPATE TODAY AS
THE WAVE MOVES E. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WAS ALONG 30W AT 00Z. THE 00Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD WAITING TO
MAKE THIS SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL IT IS ALREADY OUT OF THE
TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. THE GRADUAL BACKING OFF ON THIS FORECAST
BY THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST HISTORY FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 70W WHICH HAS YET TO DEVELOP.
THIS WAVE NEAR
30W HAS SIMILAR CHARACTERISTICS TO THE PREVIOUS WAVE WHEN IT WAS
NEAR 30W - LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...BUT THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE OPEN WAVE
SOLUTION SEEN IN THE ECMWF.

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Quoting Jedkins01:



I'm not buying that.
s. fl. gets hit alot 1920 30s 40s they got lucky with ike. dont see why it could not happen again
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3014. pottery
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's pretty much what the models foresee though...no development until around 60˚W.

Good Moaning!
No development of ANYTHING is permitted around 60W this week or weekend.
Celebrating something special on Saturday, and clouds are NOT invited.
Please comply!
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3013. msphar
7 to 14 days of peace that is wonderful news.
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Quoting reedzone:
Persistence is the key and the GFS continues to be persistent on a storm hitting Florida.. A little over 200 hours and a little under 300 hours.

06Z GFS (still running) 240 hours.



This is what it's developing...



The wave on the right side of the map is the critter. We may see this be tagged 97L very shortly.



If the GFS is showing storms hitting Florida over 200 hours away, chances are, its more likely that we will not be hit.
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Tropical Disturbance In The Eastern Atlantic:
I am closely watching a tropical disturbance that is located in the eastern Atlantic near 30 West Longitude. Currently, water vapor imagery showed that dry air is being pulled into this disturbance and this should put a hold on any development for the time being. This is not good news as this means this disturbance will be able to track further to the west and develop much further west and be a potential threat to the Caribbean and the US coast.

The global model guidance as a whole continues to insist that this tropical disturbance will eventually develop into a tropical cyclone early next week. Please note that all of the models wait to develop it until it is west of 55 or 60 West Longitude.

The latest GFS model forecasts that this system will start developing on Saturday when it is just east of Barbados. The GFS model then forecasts this system to track across the eastern Caribbean to the south of Puerto Rico and strengthen this weekend into early next week before tracking across the northern Caribbean and across central Cuba next Thursday. The GFS model ultimately forecasts this system to track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico next Friday and Saturday and makes landfall as a hurricane on the Florida Panhandle next Saturday night.

The Canadian model forecasts this to be located just offshore of the east coast of Florida by next Friday as a hurricane.

The European model forecasts that this disturbance will wait to develop until Monday when it is approaching the Turks and Caicos islands. The European model ultimately forecasts this to be a strengthening tropical cyclone over the northern Bahamas next Friday.

Ok, let’s take a step back and look at this disturbance realistically. It is notable that we continue to have agreement and consistency among the models that a significant tropical cyclone will develop west of 60 West Longitude next week. As of this morning, this disturbance is battling dry air and water vapor imagery indicates that we should continue to see it battle dry air right up to at least 50 West Longitude. Also, these same models were forecasting late last week that Invest 93L was going to be a significant tropical cyclone and well we don’t have that. I think it is reasonable to say that we should just keep an eye on this disturbance and see how much the dry air takes a toll on this disturbance and not get worried over the big hurricanes that the model guidance have been forecasting for next week. I think that by Friday when this disturbance is west of 50 and 55 West Longitude, we should start seeing whether we may have a real problem on our hands or if the model guidance forecasts were wrong.

So, I think that this disturbance will continue tracking westward for the next several days and track across Barbados and the Windward and southern Leeward Islands on Saturday into early Sunday. I think the European model may be way too far north in its forecast and that this disturbance is headed for the Caribbean. I also think that the GFS model is being too aggressive in its intensity forecast this weekend and that development will be slower to occur as this disturbance works out the dry air as it reaches the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean. If we are to have development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm, it will probably wait until Sunday or Monday when it is in the eastern part of the Caribbean.

So, for now, this is a disturbance that I will be monitoring closely over the next several days needs to be watched very closely. Finally, I want to mention that the overall pattern during the 8 to 10 day timeframe continues to point to that anything that does track into the Caribbean would be potentially steered northward towards the Florida Peninsula. So, vigilance is the word of the day here.

Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1351
Quoting robert88:
The models do seem to show some consistency with P17L being near the SE coast of FL. Where it goes from there will depend on where the trough is located etc. Going by the models looks like the alleyway could be anywhere from the E GOM to the EC.

Hi. I would like to know what P17L is. Is it a tropical wave? And can I have a link to where this is mentioned?
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Quoting bigeasystormcaster:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 8-17-11 6:00AM CDT:

93L: Thunderstorms are being enhanced by an ULL to it's west. No development is expected as it moves more to the WSW/SW and into Central America late tomorrow.

Elsewhere no development is expect over the next 7-14 days due to unfavorable upper level conditions throughout the entire tropical Atlantic, Carribean and GOM. Conditions are not expected to substantially change over the next 14 days.



Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1351
Quoting WxLogic:
Here's the 00Z ECMWF Ensemble showing E GOM and E Coast possibilities with operational output being in the middle (which is what we're seeing):




I'm not buying that.
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Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, Dry air for now seems to be the lion tamer. Im going to take a "wait and see" attitude with these AOI coming off Africa. The current theme with these models are to develope these invests into hurricanes, once past 60W-65W. This is not happening. Im not saying it wont, but for me jumping on board with models right out of the gate seems unrealistic.


Agreed. I think the models ramp this wave up way too fast and allows the trough to have too much influence on it. First off, the GFS is usually trough biased, so I'm thinking that a weaker system will of course be less influenced by whatever shape or form the trough is in. Secondly, if this wave does have a chance to develop near the islands, there will most likely be some sort of land interaction. We remember what happened with Emily and the last few runs of the GFS take this system across Hispaniola with very little if any weakening shown. Overall, whenever we finally get an invest on this, I could see a much more southern track to this. We shall see...
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK 8-17-11 6:00AM CDT:

93L: Thunderstorms are being enhanced by an ULL to it's west. No development is expected as it moves more to the WSW/SW and into Central America late tomorrow.

Elsewhere no development is expect over the next 7-14 days due to unfavorable upper level conditions throughout the entire tropical Atlantic, Carribean and GOM. Conditions are not expected to substantially change over the next 14 days.
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I am off to work. Everyone have a wonderful Wednesday!
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216hrs 06 GFS
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Link
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Quoting NICycloneChaser:


Perhaps now some of the people from last night will believe me when I said it was losing convection.

Circulation looks better though, expect it to fire up through today.



ok you where n ow give it a rest plzs
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
At 162 hours we have the main system over Hispañola, and a moderate/strong tropical storm emerging off of Africa, lol.

Best laugh of the day, so far.
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models are just that, models. They predict and from what I've learned, it's more the consistancy of what they are saying then following just one. That said, all of us who are in a place that can and does get hit with hurricanes should already have our main supplies in, not waiting to run for the store when a storm becomes iminent. Then we can sit back and watch to see what happens.
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Quoting msphar:
Looks like Fernanda will be a remnant Low by the end of the current forecast period. Killed by cold water and stable air conditions.
big kahuna will take care of it
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Reed did you read my earlier post?Not to pick on you for I like you seem to be a fine young man.bu this constant doom for the east coast is starting to sound like cloudtops doom forecast for new orleans all the time.Have you looked how far south this wave is?You know its quite possibe this wave ,if it develops, it might take the same path as 93l.Also you remember deans early forecasts?How about Ike.Katrina?Imho this is very far south,moving fast,and probably will not develop till it gets to the western carrib.nOT EVERY STORM HITS THE EAST COAST OR NEW orleans.Im afraid its our poor friends in the islands that will take the brunt.Sorry to sound negative,but like I said you seem to be a fine young man,but you might want to step back and look how many times you doom the east coast.Anyways good day and God Bless.


With all due repect, I think he might be on to something this time around giving the current and future pattern set-up
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1351
2997. WxLogic
Here's the 00Z ECMWF Ensemble showing E GOM and E Coast possibilities with operational output being in the middle (which is what we're seeing):

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
2996. msphar
Looks like Fernanda will be a remnant Low by the end of the current forecast period. Killed by cold water and stable air conditions.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.