Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting kmanislander:


The GFS brings that wave off the coast as a strong low but loses it around 45 W. One thing seems certain though and that is we will be seeing a parade of potential problems in the weeks ahead.

The MJO will soon allow for rising air and this will increase the vertical instability in both the Caribbean and the Atlantic where it presently is running below normal. It is therefore not surprising that the systems so far have struggled to get going.

I agree. MJO on the upswing, and CV season chugging into full gear.
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3095. FLdewey
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Kind of off topic but on topic to the discussion yesterday. People down here have used milk bottles for as long as I can remember to store water without any problems. If they are washed out properly with bleach I see no problems.


Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh shhhhhhhh... don't start it up again... twas just a passing joke. ;-)
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Quoting hydrus:
Good morning K-Man...Check out the GFS if you have time, and watch the wave that is still over Africa. Some serious rotation with this one..Link


The GFS brings that wave off the coast as a strong low but loses it around 45 W. One thing seems certain though and that is we will be seeing a parade of potential problems in the weeks ahead.

The MJO will soon allow for rising air and this will increase the vertical instability in both the Caribbean and the Atlantic where it presently is running below normal. It is therefore not surprising that the systems so far have struggled to get going.
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3093. scott39
When is the MJO forecasted to be at is strongest?
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Quoting barotropic:


What do you think of the ULL about to impinge possibly on 93L


One moving west, nearing the Yucutan as I see it. It is moving away and mid and high lvl winds don't look to be any problem for 93L.
Member Since: August 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
Quoting FLdewey:
Until the actual center forms the models are.... ahhh whatever.

Go nuts guys.

Pass me some dirty milk jugs.
Kind of off topic but on topic to the discussion yesterday. People down here have used milk bottles for as long as I can remember to store water without any problems. If they are washed out properly with bleach I see no problems.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Perhaps late today. Really could use a slow down, that would help an awful lot.

That's what you touched upon yesterday, and it makes sense. You have to have ample time to get that spin going, which will increase the vorticity.
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Quoting Autistic2:
I see everything is going south or out to sea. I know about september from 'THE CHART". Is the season over for the cont. U.S. ?

Coffee

[snark mode]

Yes, the season is over for the CONUS. Here on August 17th, it's safe to say that people can put away the plywood, cancel their Home Depot credit cards, eat those canned goods before they go bad, drain their water containers and gas cans, and get ready for a long winter. Since there have been no hurricanes yet, it's obvious to anyone there'll not be any storms for the remainder of the season. Forget about the fact that we've seen seven named storms already, that SSTs across much of the MDR are at record or near-record highs, that we're just now getting to the main part of the season when wind and pressure and water vapor are perfectly primed for development, and that expert tropical forecasters are telling us to look out for a very hectic six weeks coming up. Forget all that; there have been no hurricanes yet this year, so the season is very clearly finished.

[/snark mode]

Seriously? It's August 17th. August 17th. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
3088. FLdewey
Until the actual center forms the models are.... ahhh whatever.

Go nuts guys.

Pass me some dirty milk jugs.
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3087. Matt74
Doesn't look like Dmax helped out 93l.
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Quoting barotropic:


What do you think of the ULL about to impinge possibly on 93L
SPECIAL FEATURES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W FROM THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SOUTHWARD TO 12N. RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 14N TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN
69W AND 75W IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS.
NO SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXISTS. SURFACE BAROMETRIC PRESSURES ARE
NOT FALLING IN THIS REGION. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...


NHC mentions no ULL to affect the system.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Pressure down another notch. As I said yesterday, TD by tomorrow, if not sooner:

AL, 93, 2011081712, , BEST, 0, 149N, 733W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,


Perhaps late today. Really could use a slow down, that would help an awful lot.
Member Since: August 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
Quoting Autistic2:
I see everything is going south or out to sea. I know about september from 'THE CHART". Is the season over for the cont. U.S. ?

Coffee

I personally don't see anything affecting America for a couple more weeks. Through the middle of September, the pattern might change. But I think it's a bit too far out to speculate upon that.
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Pressure down another notch. As I said yesterday, TD by tomorrow, if not sooner:

AL, 93, 2011081712, , BEST, 0, 149N, 733W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Just basically a watch and wait on the waves for now and the model guidance. Plenty of time to keep an eye on those features. Be back after Dr. M's post.
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yep, and I think the Florida peninsula has to be extra careful for this one
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
I don't see today bringing much of anything development wise for either of the two systems we are looking at.

93L just can't get going due to speed primarily, and the ATL wave is battling some dry air for now.

Of the two, I would expect 93L to spin up sooner, if at all.


What do you think of the ULL about to impinge possibly on 93L
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3079. hydrus
Quoting totalamature:
Maybe this will work. "Here little TS", "Come on Boy" Or Girl:) "Good Little TS, Come BE a nice little Drought Breaker for texas," ( Add kiss, Kiss SOunds) "Thats a good little TS" We dont care about your name or number. "Come on little fella" "We have some nice warm water for you. Be A good little TS"
WEll nothing else has worked:)
If its bad, maybe he or she will sit, roll over and play dead.....
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3078. Dakster
Quoting Autistic2:
I see everything is going south or out to sea. I know about september from 'THE CHART". Is the season over for the cont. U.S. ?

Coffee


It would be nice if I could say yes, no CONUS landfalls for 2011.... BUT, I know better.

Things can change and a storm can always sneak through regardless. There is still alot of the "season" left to deal with.
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I don't see today bringing much of anything development wise for either of the two systems we are looking at.

93L just can't get going due to speed primarily, and the ATL wave is battling some dry air for now.

Of the two, I would expect 93L to spin up sooner, if at all.
Member Since: August 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
3076. hydrus
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

The two features we have been following remain status quo this morning. 93L failed to take advantage of Dmax to build any significant convection and continues to trundle off to the West in the general direction of the Nicaraguan / Honduras border area.

It still has a chance to become a TD once it reaches 75W and beyond.

The wave in the Atlantic is currently passing through an area of 20 knot shear that stretches to about 40 W. This shear has been on the increase and I am therefore not expecting any development from this wave until it is closer to 50/55 W.
Good morning K-Man...Check out the GFS if you have time, and watch the wave that is still over Africa. Some serious rotation with this one..Link
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Central Atl wave will be something to watch when it reaches 50-55W.
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1200 CIMMS UPDATE..

Member Since: August 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
Maybe this will work. "Here little TS", "Come on Boy" Or Girl:) "Good Little TS, Come BE a nice little Drought Breaker for texas," ( Add kiss, Kiss SOunds) "Thats a good little TS" We dont care about your name or number. "Come on little fella" "We have some nice warm water for you. Be A good little TS"
WEll nothing else has worked:)
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I see everything is going south or out to sea. I know about september from 'THE CHART". Is the season over for the cont. U.S. ?

Coffee
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they stress carribean.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
Here is the am NCEP discussion on the next wave; it has a nice summary of the model guidance issue and mjo:

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 704 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

ON THE LONG RANGE...MODELS SHOWING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE ECMWF WERE QUITE BULLISH WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT THE LATEST ONE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS A WEAKER CIRCULATION. THE UKMET AND GFS HAS GONE THE OPPOSITE WAY...NOW SHOWING A STRONGER WAVE. AS MJO CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE...WE NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THIS REGION.


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To honkerdown you might want to look at 0600 GFS run on 93l.The person you called a troll for sying it was going to move wsw was spot on look at the model.As far as the Kangeroo or Kiola?If the gfs verifies it would be bad for hispianola but certainly would not stay that strong after traversing the mtns of hispanola.Hey remember hurricane Debbie of 2000?Gloom and doom for south fla by the media?Well cantorie was standing at key west, and all he got was a sunburn lol.Looks like another carribean under achiever.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
To honkerdown you might want to look at 0600 GFS run on 93l.The person you called a troll for sying it was going to move wsw was spot on look at the model.As far as the Kangeroo or Kiola?If the gfs verifies it would be bad for hispianola but certainly would not stay that strong after traversing the mtns of hispanola.Hey remember hurricane Debbie of 2000?Gloom and doom for south fla by the media?Well cantorie was standing at key west, and all he got was a sunburn lol.Looks like another carribean under achiever.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 709
3067. NASA101
...just to remind folks here that GFS was predicting a huge hurricane with 93L during the early runs...
And looks what's become of it... it stayed weak and tracked West..
This year I believe that the models are NOT modeling the dry-air/dust well enough into their cyclogenesis..worst of all in this category is HWRF which historically has been notorious for spinning up massive hurricanes.

My hunch (lol) for this potential 97L is that it will probably remain weak until it reaches 65W or thereabouts and if it does develop after that then I just don't see it curving out - will definitely a player for CONUS
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3066. ncstorm
HPC EXTENDED DISCUSSION

RELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
459 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2011

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 21 2011 - 12Z WED AUG 24 2011

AT LEAST IN THE LARGE SCALE... MOST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS GOOD
CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WRN RIDGE/ERN TROF
CONFIGURATION WILL AMPLIFY FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
THE ERN TROF ENCOURAGING A LEADING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE EAST
COAST IN THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WHEN
THERE IS CONSENSUS IN THE MEANS... IT WILL STILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
WORK OUT THE DETAILS FOR INDIVIDUAL SHRTWVS AND THEIR
CORRESPONDING SFC REFLECTION. THE 00Z GFS COMPARES A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLY TO OTHER 00Z OR EARLIER 12Z GUIDANCE IN DEPICTING A
SHARPER THAN CONSENSUS SHRTWV FEEDING INTO THE DEEPENING ERN TROF
SUN INTO TUE... LEADING TO STRONGER ERN CANADA SFC DEVELOPMENT
THAN SEEN IN RECENT ECMWF RUNS OR THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. HOWEVER THE
CANADIAN/UKMET ALSO DEVELOP A STRONG SYSTEM OVER ERN CANADA THOUGH
A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE GFS. ULTIMATELY A SMALL WEIGHTING OF
THE GFS COULD STILL BE FEASIBLE SINCE ITS EVOLUTION STILL FITS
WITHIN THE MEAN PATTERN.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15999
I think the GFS had a storm hitting last year hitting Florida( not Bonnie) and it did not happen. Crown weather has the right idea let us see what it looks like by 50-55 W, no need to panic now that is for sure. It is serious enough with the model runs to give it attention but that's it. If I was in the Carribbean I'd take it with more concern since it could effect the area in 5 days. After that it is speculation where it might go.
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Good morning

The two features we have been following remain status quo this morning. 93L failed to take advantage of Dmax to build any significant convection and continues to trundle off to the West in the general direction of the Nicaraguan / Honduras border area.

It still has a chance to become a TD once it reaches 75W and beyond.

The wave in the Atlantic is currently passing through an area of 20 knot shear that stretches to about 40 W. This shear has been on the increase and I am therefore not expecting any development from this wave until it is closer to 50/55 W.
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Quoting WxLogic:


Yeah... I guess everybody has their own view on days to the actual event, looks like I'm not that quick as you're on the progress on the system. :)

I agree in regards "no particular runs can be completely discounted." since the offer possibilities as we closer to the event (if it does work out the way is being depicted).

It's not really my view lol, just the time frame the models seem to be suggesting.
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Good Morning. NHC bumped 93: up to 30% but still booking pretty fast at 15-20 MPH......Starting to run out of room before nearing the Yucatan in a few days
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Quoting ncstorm:


them? its only one guy..
crown? problem is there are alot of other characters that have forecasting businesses for example junkie got to follow the rules. its spam
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Stopping in briefly before school...Should see 93L obtain more convection through this afternoon, and it will probably gets its percentages upped later on either at the 2PM or 8PM TWO.



Tropical Storm Fernanda will probably break the hurricane streak, dealing with a lot of dry air.



Tropical Storm Greg should become a hurricane...But if Fernanda doesn't, the streak is broken. Oh well, sorry Eastern Pacific.



93L may begin to experience some southerly sheer amongst other problems by this afternoon...IMO. Cant see to much of un upgrading percentage wise
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3059. WxLogic
Quoting NICycloneChaser:


GFS has the wave approaching Florida in around 8 days. Not 10+ days anymore. That's close enough in my mind to be watching the model runs closely. Sure, they'll all change, but no particular run can be completely discounted.


Yeah... I guess everybody has their own view on days to the actual event, looks like I'm not that quick as you're on the progress on the system. :)

I agree in regards "no particular runs can be completely discounted." since the offer possibilities as we closer to the event (if it does work out the way is being depicted).
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5012
93l weekendon vorticity bbl
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3057. hydrus
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Key West strike in 228 hours, should recurve soon with the weakness towards the north:

GFS track looks similar to 1960 Donna...
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So many ppl on here are desperate for a land-falling US Hurricane, kinda pathetic. (unless you live in Texas, cause I'm rooting for ya)
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Link
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Stopping in briefly before school...Should see 93L obtain more convection through this afternoon, and it will probably gets its percentages upped later on either at the 2PM or 8PM TWO.



Tropical Storm Fernanda will probably break the hurricane streak, dealing with a lot of dry air.



Tropical Storm Greg should become a hurricane...But if Fernanda doesn't, the streak is broken. Oh well, sorry Eastern Pacific.

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Quoting islander101010:
first vis. of 93 a td tomorrow


LOL
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3052. WxLogic
Quoting hurricane23:
Indeed a bit worrisome as the 00z UKMET is also on board here with development close to 50-55west.


Good post by SLU pointing out their thinking on UKMET behaving in such a fashion too.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5012
Quoting hurricane23:


Actually if this wave does develope it appears at this time that a threat to the SE is quite possible based on the pattern projected.


We shall se if the trend continues, its fun to watch, I just don't want to see anyone panicking over it yet, that's all.
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first vis. of 93 a td by tomorrow
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3049. 900MB
Kind of get the feeling that something could spin up out of nowhere today. Guess it is that time of year!

The wave out at 35W (17L?) looks like it has some potential, sure, but how about long shots? Here they are:

1- Tiny spin Yucatan Channel,
2- Dry spinner around 55W/20N
3- Anything from that front off the East Coast.

If it is either of the first 2, you heard it here first. Hope everyone has a great day, looks like a top 10 in NYC!

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3048. ncstorm
NHC/TAFB Wave Height forecast for AOI African wave

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15999
Quoting WxLogic:


Sure... a weaker system would tend to stay further S. Given that we're still 10+ days from such a depiction in the models, then expect them to change.

In regards organization... so far this season tropical disturbances have been able to gain some sort of better organization once they past 50W to 55W. The degree of organization with P17L after passing those longitudes would dictate the possibility of a more poleward track than that of a westerly track.


GFS has the wave approaching Florida in around 8 days. Not 10+ days anymore. That's close enough in my mind to be watching the model runs closely. Sure, they'll all change, but no particular run can be completely discounted.
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Thanks guys... always a help... can't look at models very well on the phone.

I suppose here in S. FL we're really in a wait and see 'til something possibly spins up Sunday-Monday.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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