Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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3145. scott39
Quoting hurricane23:


Yep..that CA look.
Yea..that look too.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I did. I even went back and read again, just for you. Normally though, these cloud tops fire right up from the get-go. With the displacing in the mid-levels interacting with the dry air still present, deep convection probably won't occur now.


I agree that normally you would expect a big burst but remember that the Caribbean has a lot of stable air now ( my post earlier about vertical instability being low normal refers )and consequently the typical convective cycle is not as robust as one would expect.

Even so, it seems to be continuing to build at this time.

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Quoting scott39:
93L is starting to get the "look".


Yep..that CA look.
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3142. ncstorm
trough off the east coast in 96 hours

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15286
3141. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
8.55N/33.13W
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3140. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128270
Quoting kmanislander:


15N and 73 W approximately. There is a buoy, 42058, moored at 15N and 75 W and the center of 93L should pass almost right over it later today. A good buoy to monitor for wind and pressure fall, if any. Right now the last report from it had a pressure of 1010 mbs and 21 kots sustained out of the ENE
Do you have a link to this buoy?
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Lots of people seem a little tense this morning.

Nothing eminent. Back to lurk mode.
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3137. scott39
K-Man post 3108 TIA
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
3136. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
POSS T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/93L
MARK
15.25N/73.23W
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


I don't see that feature there. The upper lvl winds don't reflect a ULL in that area.



I agree, its not shown on the chart....but u must see it on the WVL, I mean its there...its clearly spinning. centered at 13N 79W...I am not trying to be smart here...just asking if its not an uLL thats spinning, what is it?
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Wake when the pressure hits 29.76....like it was 3 days ago.
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3133. scott39
93L is starting to get the "look".
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
Quoting Matt74:
Kman. Where do you put the coc at?


15N and 73 W approximately. There is a buoy, 42058, moored at 15N and 75 W and the center of 93L should pass almost right over it later today. A good buoy to monitor for wind and pressure fall, if any. Right now the last report from it had a pressure of 1010 mbs and 21 kots sustained out of the ENE
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3131. SeaMule
caribbean looking rather dicey. look for HEAVY action for the next 8 weeks.

at least 4 major hurricanes will form...cat 3 or higher

at least 1 cat 4 or 5 will hit the Gulf Coast

at least 1 cat 3 or 4 will hit the East Coast.


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Quoting hydrus:
If its bad, maybe he or she will sit, roll over and play dead.....

Well if its bad we could always try whacking it with a rolled up newspaper ...... Picture that in a hurricane:) Been in lots of tornados but only one hurricane, Little Floyd in the 80s at disney world.
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I put the center at 15N/73.2W
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The question is,will recon go this afternoon. I say yes.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Orange is deep convection? Isn't deep convection the cooler cloud tops, more or less -80C? -80C would be a deep red, and -90 or greater would be the grey shade.


Read my post carefully and note the use of the word " starting ".
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3122. Matt74
Quoting kmanislander:
93L is starting to produce deep convection on its South side for the first time. Perhaps this marks a turning point for development. It is closing in on 73W which is very near to where weak Caribbean systems ramp up if they are going to start developing at all.

Kman. Where do you put the coc at?
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Please note for the record the timing of these posts.

We're growing apart, KMan. So sad.


LOL
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First earthquake since 7/31 that is higher than a magnitude 6.



Still haven't seen one that anyone would call "significant". Bit of a lull.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I agree that. In fact, if 93L had developed, that retrograding ULL would have aided development by providing an outflow channel off to the NW. It is too far away from 93L to have any impact on it.


Sorry but I am curious.....I am talking about the one...at 13N 79W. SW of 93L...visible on water vapor loop....counter clockwise spin......just begining to sheer the eastern portion of 93L.......its not anywhere near the yucatan and is moving in tandem but 93 is gaining on it....

If its not ULL what is it spinning CCW....thanks
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Good morning, appears 93L might be starting to slow down a bit now.
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3114. ackee
I fully agree with DR.ROB viewn on crown weather about the wave in the EASTEn Atlantic think we should just wait see what will happen not get to EXCITED this may be very similar to 93L interms of track and intensity guess we see
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93L is starting to produce deep convection on its South side for the first time. Perhaps this marks a turning point for development. It is closing in on 73W which is very near to where weak Caribbean systems ramp up if they are going to start developing at all.

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Sorry AUDREYRITALILY, but I don't buy your argument. If you can read what other people wrote in lower case, you can read what you wrote.
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3111. Matt74
Quoting FLdewey:
audreyritalillyLa44 I liked the hotwheels99 handle better.

Be more creative on the next handle to make.

TIA
Haven't noticed but i'm guessing he/she is a troll?
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17/0545 UTC 14.8N 70.9W T1.0/1.0 93L
16/2345 UTC 15.1N 69.5W T1.0/1.0 93L



Latest
17/1145 UTC 15.0N 72.7W T1.5/1.5 93L -- Atlantic
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3108. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

The two features we have been following remain status quo this morning. 93L failed to take advantage of Dmax to build any significant convection and continues to trundle off to the West in the general direction of the Nicaraguan / Honduras border area.

It still has a chance to become a TD once it reaches 75W and beyond.

The wave in the Atlantic is currently passing through an area of 20 knot shear that stretches to about 40 W. This shear has been on the increase and I am therefore not expecting any development from this wave until it is closer to 50/55 W.
Is the MJO going to aid in the AOI off of Africa, at the time when the models are developing it?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
or...in the lower right hand corner of Dr. Masters blog entry...one can simply increase the size of the font presentation by simply clicking on on of the capital "A's"
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Quoting FLdewey:


Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh shhhhhhhh... don't start it up again... twas just a passing joke. ;-)


Way to go dewey....POOF!
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3105. scott39
Quoting Neapolitan:

[snark mode]

Yes, the season is over for the CONUS. Here on August 17th, it's safe to say that people can put away the plywood, cancel their Home Depot credit cards, eat those canned goods before they go bad, drain their water containers and gas cans, and get ready for a long winter. Since there have been no hurricanes yet, it's obvious to anyone there'll not be any storms for the remainder of the season. Forget about the fact that we've seen seven named storms already, that SSTs across much of the MDR are at record or near-record highs, that we're just now getting to the main part of the season when wind and pressure and water vapor are perfectly primed for development, and that expert tropical forecasters are telling us to look out for a very hectic six weeks coming up. Forget all that; there have been no hurricanes yet this year, so the season is very clearly finished.

[/snark mode]

Seriously? It's August 17th. August 17th. ;-)
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
Quoting USAFwxguy:
In my area, and I know this sounds crazy, you can buy water in containers that look very similar to MILK JUGS. Yep, comes that way right from the water farm. And, get this, it is cheaper.
you from another planet ??
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3100. scott39
Quoting FLdewey:


Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh shhhhhhhh... don't start it up again... twas just a passing joke. ;-)
You opened the can first. Next time put cheetos in your hands when you think of a MJ. LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
Quoting USAFwxguy:


One moving west, nearing the Yucutan as I see it. It is moving away and mid and high lvl winds don't look to be any problem for 93L.


I agree that. In fact, if 93L had developed, that retrograding ULL would have aided development by providing an outflow channel off to the NW. It is too far away from 93L to have any impact on it.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.