Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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The SFWMD is very good after hurricanes. I know I live in palm beach county and after wilma, jeanne, and frances we were not under boil water orders once
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
Got Milk...Jugs?

Call the riot police these folks are fighting over milk jugs LMBO.....told ya it gets crazy in here!!!.....now back to the tropics.....hmmm!!!
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We were without water for two week after Katrina, so you would want to store as much water as possible. I start collecting milk jugs and two liter soda bottles. The milk jugs are used for cooking, and the two liters make great portable showers. We use one per person, per day, so I start collecting June 1st.
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Quoting FLdewey:

Speaking of Siberia... I wonder if they sell Soviet Cheetos?


In Soviet Russia, you do not eat Cheetos; Cheetos eat you!
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Beginning to see some rotation on TPW:



Check out the rotation with the new African, massive!
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12z GFS is a doomsday scenario. wave over near the cape verde islands going straight into Mobile bay, Alabama as a major hurricane.
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93L visible Img.



93L Rainbow.

93L seemingly looking better today :).
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Beginning to see some rotation on TPW:

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting Abacosurf:
LOL

If FEMA says so than in must be gospel.....So sorry.


I would rather do what FEMA suggests, and not risk my family. You find it funny, but if a simple step will help my family I am willing to do it. I buy my water, I was posting that information for those who may not be able to afford to buy water. Surviving after a hurricane is not fun, I've done it numerous times. If you read the whole post, I used the big word "myriad," it means many other places suggest it too.

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Water lines are the second thing one loses in a Major Hurricane, after power.

Trees that Topple in Suburban areas always break mains and the lackof potable water is always great after a Major.



Thus the first relief Push always has Water and food for the remaining Pop.




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Oh and FEMA better supply me with Zephyrhills Natural Spring Water, no cheap ass water mind, LOL.
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Quoting MahFL:


You've abviously never been rock bottom broke in your life before......not that I am right now, I hasten to add.


Not trying to be a smart allec or anything, but 79 cents for a gallon at most dollar stores. I don't know how much bleach and baking soda costs right off hand, but I'm pretty sure it's close to a wash.
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Quoting LADobeLady:


YOU CANNOT USE MILK JUGS! It will make you/your family sick. You can't thoroughly remove the milk protein from the jugs. Google before you give advice that will make people sick.

Link


Did you read the post or just see milk jugs? You can use them for ice packs.
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We use empty milk jugs all the time in my family for drinking water. We have never got sick off of it.
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yes , you can use milk jugs , you have to clean them thorughly as you would with any reused container to store water.
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Quoting LADobeLady:


YOU CANNOT USE MILK JUGS! It will make you/your family sick. You can't thoroughly remove the milk protein from the jugs. Google before you give advice that will make people sick.

Link


Use 1 gal freezer bags filled with water.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
repost!
Blog update! Read for my opinion on the tropics today.
Gert weakens, 93L, new African wave our biggest threat. 8/16/11
Great reading Cyber.
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
48. FLdewey 11:01 AM EDT on August 16, 2011 +0
Besides all of this milk jug talk... nobody needs hundreds of gallons of water. Even in major hurricanes the water service usually isn't out for long if at all. You guys are going a little over the doomsday line.Now... back to the Cheetos.



yeah, that's my department...

The thing is, what about the quality of water in the pipes. Won't that take a few days to be used, what's the chances of that water being contaminated?
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for drinking, go to the camping section of Wal-Mart and buy the 5 gallon collapsible water containers. You can fill them at the last minute if the storm is eminent. they do not take up much space in your hurricane kit.
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You CAN use milk jugs. Just make sure they are cleaned. From Homeland Security: Clean used containers and lids with hot soapy water. Once the containers have been thoroughly cleaned, rinse them with water and sanitize the containers and lids by rinsing them with a solution of 1 tablespoon chlorine bleach per gallon of water. Leave the containers wet for two minutes, then rinse them again with water. Remember to remove the paper or plastic lid liners before washing the lids
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Quoting LADobeLady:


You can use anything you want, but you shouldn't use milk jugs. click on the link and READ. It is what FEMA, and a myriad of other places recommend. Giving out information like that is careless, it could cause people to become very sick, in times when there is no medical care. Link
LOL

If FEMA says so than in must be gospel.....So sorry.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Besides all of this milk jug talk... nobody needs hundreds of gallons of water. Even in major hurricanes the water service usually isn't out for long if at all. You guys are going a little over the doomsday line.

Now... back to the Cheetos.


I was under a boil ban order for a month after Gustav. I have 9 people to provide water for not including 3 dogs, 2 cats. At the very minimum, you need 1 gallon a day for each person. You do the math, that is not overboard when you have lived without being able to use your home water for a month.
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Quoting FLdewey:


you CAN use milk jugs to make giant ice cubes to keep your fridge and freezer cold. Not for drinking - fo freezin.
Dont fill them to the top to keep from busting.
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Quoting LADobeLady:


YOU CANNOT USE MILK JUGS! It will make you/your family sick. You can't thoroughly remove the milk protein from the jugs. Google before you give advice that will make people sick.



just buy gallon water jugs with water ALREADY in them.... problem solved for less than a buck....next....



You've abviously never been rock bottom broke in your life before......not that I am right now, I hasten to add.
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Quoting srada:


yeah, they do get stale but yeah I'm in the same boat..a bag of cheetos is not something you want in your hurricane supplies, they wont last through the storm if I had my way with them..

I am 3/4 through a block of chocolate. Anyone else want some?
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Quoting FLdewey:
Besides all of this milk jug talk... nobody needs hundreds of gallons of water. Even in major hurricanes the water service usually isn't out for long if at all. You guys are going a little over the doomsday line.

Now... back to the Cheetos.

True....my wife and i have 5-5 gallon containers of water for our water dispenser and i feel like 25 gallons of water is more than sufficient for just the two of us!!
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We've lost power two times from far away passing hurricames ( Jeanne and Charly I think ). One was 6 hours and one 18 hours. Best advice, some ice and water, some food you can eat cold, and a battery powered TV.
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I had a local met. sayin by the time the system that the models are developing gets close to the US coast the current trough over the eastern US will be lifted out and there will be more ridging..I am assuming thats what the GFS n ECMWF are picking up on?? anyone agree with that??
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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Glad to know that. I was not aware of this. OK, how about any two liter bottles that came with soft drinks?


Yes if you read the link I provided it tells you how to make your pop bottles sanitized for storage.
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no one said you had to drink the water from the jugs! They just act as giant chunks of ice, which is both cold and an insulator. You just refreeze or toss the jugs once you are home.
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Quoting FLdewey:


Oh man now I'm hungry. Do Cheetos ever expire? I wouldn't know... a bag has never survived more than a few days in my haus.


yeah, they do get stale but yeah I'm in the same boat..a bag of cheetos is not something you want in your hurricane supplies, they wont last through the storm if I had my way with them..
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Quoting scott39:
With them educating the kids, maybe just maybe it might stick until adulthood.

I am waiting for a hurricane to for so I can sit in during one lunch time and do a talk on it. I will use many resources like this website and NOAA and NHC.
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Has anyone here heard if the Recon flight is still on for Invest 93L???
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Quoting Abacosurf:
you can use them AFTER rinsing with baking soda or a teaspoon of bleach.


You can use anything you want, but you shouldn't use milk jugs. click on the link and READ. It is what FEMA, and a myriad of other places recommend. Giving out information like that is careless, it could cause people to become very sick, in times when there is no medical care. Link
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Quoting LADobeLady:


YOU CANNOT USE MILK JUGS! It will make you/your family sick. You can't thoroughly remove the milk protein from the jugs. Google before you give advice that will make people sick.

Link


Nothing wrong with using the milk cartons to store water for flushing. Just need to make sure everyone knows the difference
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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