Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting FLdewey:
Besides all of this milk jug talk... nobody needs hundreds of gallons of water. Even in major hurricanes the water service usually isn't out for long if at all. You guys are going a little over the doomsday line.

Now... back to the Cheetos.


Cheetos?

Down here in PBC it's beef jerky and Cool Ranch Dortios with salsa con queso LOL
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Quoting Inactivity:


Caribbean and gulf temps are really high.

P.S. Anyone who can guess where this came from gets a cookie.

But it's true.
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Wow, I'm impressed: 78 comments debating the pros and cons of storing emergency drinking water in plastic milk jugs--and some of us get jumped on for discussing the climate? ;-)

93L looks to be developing nicely today. The RGB loop clearly shows low-level cyclonic turning beginning to pick up. My guess is that pressures are falling; with that in mind, I'd say at least 40% by this afternoon, and TD status no later than Thursday.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13524
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
In reponse to post 88.Already went through that doomsday scenario,Sept 12,1979.Look at the rank of the storm after it hit, and the sustained windspeed.It in my opinion is a forgotten storm.Stronger wind wise,than Ivan,Katrina,Jeanne,Ike,Opal,Gustav,or any other to hit the conus in the last 35 years.Only Andrew,charley,And Hugo Bbarely were stronger wind wise at landfall.And itwas a much larger storm than charley or andrew.So for us in SE MS. and South Ala,thats a rerun.Hey pat I know you know what tommorrow is?So sad not mentioned once on this blog today.Must be a lot of teens on today.
Saint i know how uyou feel.i went through Fredrick as well.It was a horriffic storm.ANd i guarantee every year on Sept 12 I think of the night it came through.I had one miracle from that storm.My neice was born right in the middle of it.
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A Lady called Camille

Aug 17th, 1969


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129.
I live in Chickasaw. I go to South as a meteorology student.
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Quoting 7544:
wow Link

looks like 93l will have company soon see two more yeloow circles coming soon from the nhc
That's a big one.
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Caribbean and gulf temps are really high.

Edit- Image won't work, so I will post the link. water temps
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Quoting LADobeLady:


I would rather do what FEMA suggests, and not risk my family. You find it funny, but if a simple step will help my family I am willing to do it. I buy my water, I was posting that information for those who may not be able to afford to buy water. Surviving after a hurricane is not fun, I've done it numerous times. If you read the whole post, I used the big word "myriad," it means many other places suggest it too.



I prefer not to follow the advice from governmental agencies....Not for monetary advice especially.


You are being slightly over bearing IMO. You can rinse a roundup container and neutralize it's chemicals by simply using Baking soda.

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Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Can I buy a vowel?


Link
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134. DFWjc
Quoting Abacosurf:
you can use them AFTER rinsing with baking soda or a teaspoon of bleach.


Or some grocery stores sell water "milk" jugs as well, all you need to do is buy the water and there you go.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

LMAOSHMSFOAIDMT


Can I buy a vowel?
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Definately a far cry from 2010, where at this time we had already had 3 hurricanes, Category 2 Alex and Category 4 hurricane Danielle

And the other one was Earl. Right?
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117. SAINTHURRIFAN,


Not many Living Mem of that unless your Gro and our ages.
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Quoting SouthALWX:
yeah I saw the GFS bringing a big time gulf sized storm up to my house. It will poof on the next run with near certainty, but the GFS has been advertising a break in the 500 mb pattern over the area towards the end of august for about 3-4 days now. Yesterday I showed my wife that and said, it may not look like much now, but if a wave happens to be embedded in the flow at that point in time, it would be bad news for those near us. And wouldn't you know it the GFS picked up on a wave today.
SouthALWX where do live in Ala?I am in Semmes just north of Mobile.
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1. Canned food
2. Freeze dried food
3. Sterno and small collapseable sterno backpacking stove
4. Water proof matches
5. Advance water supply in disinfected jugs, chlorine is a good killer of just about anything...be sure to rinse well after use
6. Water disinfectant pills...used them backpacking and never got sick. Get at any decent camping store. Water tastes a little funny but its ok.
7. Batteries and battery operated TV/Radio
8. Knowledge that it will be over at some point

Most of this stuff I carried into the wilderness backpacking where there is no food, the water is questionable and fire is what you make of it. Can easily work at home.
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Quoting THL3:


Some of us need electricity to run the water wells which can be out for weeks. Also for non potable water storage use plastic trash cans outside. They are cheap and lots of different sizes.

Is it possible to buy rain tanks over there? Here in Australia, they come in many and varied sizes.
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WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT TUE 16 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-077

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 17/1545Z
D. 15.0N 74.50W
E. 17/1615Z TO 18/2015Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 18/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA FOR 16/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/1300Z.
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Quoting LADobeLady:


I was under a boil ban order for a month after Gustav. I have 9 people to provide water for not including 3 dogs, 2 cats. At the very minimum, you need 1 gallon a day for each person. You do the math, that is not overboard when you have lived without being able to use your home water for a month.

1 gallon per person per day is not enough IMO. Remember, you will also have to use the water for cooking and washing. I have stored 3-4 gallons per person per day for 5 days. Learned a lesson during Charley. We were without water and power for 10 days.
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Definately a far cry from 2010, where at this time we had already had 3 hurricanes, Category 2 Alex and Category 4 hurricane Danielle
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Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
In reponse to post 88.Already went through that doomsday scenario,Sept 12,1979.Look at the rank of the storm after it hit, and the sustained windspeed.It in my opinion is a forgotten storm.Stronger wind wise,than Ivan,Katrina,Jeanne,Ike,Opal,Gustav,or any other to hit the conus in the last 35 years.Only Andrew,charley,And Hugo Bbarely were stronger wind wise at landfall.And itwas a much larger storm than charley or andrew.So for us in SE MS. and South Ala,thats a rerun.Hey pat I know you know what tommorrow is?So sad not mentioned once on this blog today.Must be a lot of teens on today.

34 years since Elvis died?
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RECON info can be found on the NHC Home page menu columnon the Left,,maybe check,er,"Aircraft RECON."

Its a good one to maybe bookmark
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

Call the riot police these folks are fighting over milk jugs LMBO.....told ya it gets crazy in here!!!.....now back to the tropics.....hmmm!!!
Fighting over milk thats funny.Incredible
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118. THL3
Quoting FLdewey:
Besides all of this milk jug talk... nobody needs hundreds of gallons of water. Even in major hurricanes the water service usually isn't out for long if at all. You guys are going a little over the doomsday line.

Now... back to the Cheetos.


Some of us need electricity to run the water wells which can be out for weeks. Also for non potable water storage use plastic trash cans outside. They are cheap and lots of different sizes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
In reponse to post 88.Already went through that doomsday scenario,Sept 12,1979.Look at the rank of the storm after it hit, and the sustained windspeed.It in my opinion is a forgotten storm.Stronger wind wise,than Ivan,Katrina,Jeanne,Ike,Opal,Gustav,or any other to hit the conus in the last 35 years.Only Andrew,charley,And Hugo Bbarely were stronger wind wise at landfall.And itwas a much larger storm than charley or andrew.So for us in SE MS. and South Ala,thats a rerun.Hey pat I know you know what tommorrow is?So sad not mentioned once on this blog today.Must be a lot of teens on today.
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Quoting MahFL:
We've lost power two times from far away passing hurricames ( Jeanne and Charly I think ). One was 6 hours and one 18 hours. Best advice, some ice and water, some food you can eat cold, and a battery powered TV.

a battery powered tv won't work anymore with the new fcc rules on digital tv signals.
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115. 7544
wow Link

looks like 93l will have company soon see two more yeloow circles coming soon from the nhc
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6810
Quoting Jax82:
Mexico gets another storm, whose upset? lol

Mexico, don't there lives matter?
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Quoting Thrawst:
12z GFS is a doomsday scenario. wave over near the cape verde islands going straight into Mobile bay, Alabama as a major hurricane.


Well it has sent the same storm into SW Louisiana and into the Carolinas and up the east coast on different runs. Let's see what it does next.
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Quoting Thrawst:
12z GFS is a doomsday scenario. wave over near the cape verde islands going straight into Mobile bay, Alabama as a major hurricane.
Yep,but first Puerto Rico,then Hispaniola,Cuba,Florida,and finally turn to Ala.
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yeah I saw the GFS bringing a big time gulf sized storm up to my house. It will poof on the next run with near certainty, but the GFS has been advertising a break in the 500 mb pattern over the area towards the end of august for about 3-4 days now. Yesterday I showed my wife that and said, it may not look like much now, but if a wave happens to be embedded in the flow at that point in time, it would be bad news for those near us. And wouldn't you know it the GFS picked up on a wave today.
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Has anyone here heard if the Recon flight is still on for Invest 93L???


In Doc's morning blog update he says it was scheduled but will probably be scrub Ed because of 93 L's lack of organization.
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Quoting Thrawst:
12z GFS is a doomsday scenario. wave over near the cape verde islands going straight into Mobile bay, Alabama as a major hurricane.
Hey Thrawst will you please tell the GFS I am tired of him/her picking on Mobile with these model runs.LOL just joking I know it is too far out and the models will change every yime.But seriousl what is interesting is how there are two models forecasting this to be the one to make it to the GOM.I pray if it does it is a lil TS for Texas.
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Quoting Cotillion:


In Soviet Russia, you do not eat Cheetos; Cheetos eat you!

LMAOSHMSFOAIDMT
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Check out the rotation with the new African, massive!
Yes but it looks like it has ingested a fair amount of dry air. That will give it problems over the next few days.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting Twinkster:
The SFWMD is very good after hurricanes. I know I live in palm beach county and after wilma, jeanne, and frances we were not under boil water orders once


I'm pretty sure many towns were.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


You were right.

Hypothetically speaking if say in the next 48 hours 93L organizes into a strong tropical system as some of the intensity models indicate, what steering pattern would you expect 93L to take given a deeper structured system? Towards Texas???
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Quoting Thrawst:
12z GFS is a doomsday scenario. wave over near the cape verde islands going straight into Mobile bay, Alabama as a major hurricane.



Link please
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The blog has changed from weather to milk & water.No more about waves,td,ts,hurricanes etc.What a relief.
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




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Quoting MahFL:
Oh and FEMA better supply me with Zephyrhills Natural Spring Water, no cheap ass water mind, LOL.

You'll get what your given, If you want that, get your butt down to wal-mart and buy some. LOL
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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