Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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About recon, This is the plan issued today:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 17/1545Z
D. 15.0N 74.50W
E. 17/1615Z TO 18/2015Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 18/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA
FOR 16/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/1300Z.

See that is what confuses me. There was no mission SE of Bermuda scheduled at that time. I think it is just a typo and they cancelled the mission into 93L. Besides, I don't see why they would fly into it anyway. Not very many signs of a surface circulation at this time.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting Twinkster:
I kind of miss when Jeff Master's blog posts during hurricane season were entirely about the hurricane season. Now it seems the posts are about climate with little blurbs about the tropics


Well it's understandable since there have been no hurricanes.

Meanwhile, we are setting even more climate records.

You may not care, but "record setting climate change" is about a thousand times more important than "no hurricanes at all".
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Really building convection now.. still no closed LLC from what I can see.
What is this supposed to be ? Look at the date LOL
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Quoting nofailsafe:


Here's your SAL:



My point exactly, most of the SAL is north of the waves coming off of africa. Minimal SAL to the west. Shoildn't be a problem at all
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OBSERVATIONS & FORECAST FOR 93L:

OBSERVATIONS:

93L appears to have slowed down some but is still being negatively affected by some westerly shear, dry air and a large scale ULL to it's NE. It has temporarily developed some thunderstorms nears it presumed center.

FORECAST:

As previously forecast the models are now starting to trend with a more southern path toward the Honduran Coast. Our forecast is for once the axis of this wave passes the northern tip of Venezuela for the system to take a more SW path toward southern Nicaragua and Costa Rica and dissipate or get caught up in the EPAC ITCZ area. O% chance of development.
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Quoting AllStar17:
I really don't think the "center" is where this map has it. I feel it is/will form farther to the north.

Vorticity charts still suggest it is that far south.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting mcluvincane:


do u mind posting a current SAL image to prove you point

Upper WV

Mid WV
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12z GFS has a very trackable wave by 48 hours.
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I really don't think the "center" is where this map has it. I feel it is/will form farther to the north.

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Quoting mcluvincane:


do u mind posting a current SAL image to prove you point


Here's your SAL:

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Quoting cloudburst2011:


well this year is sure nothing to boast about 7TC no HURRICANES...6 went out with the FISH...
Not saying it is. Although I believe the average hurricane forms August 12th, so it's not like we are way behind. Who knows, maybe 93L and the wave by Africa both become hurricanes?
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
AS of 1130, recon is still go for today. Not that they will find much.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23590
Quoting cloudburst2011:


with all that dust out there i would not hold your breath to long for that to happen...


do u mind posting a current SAL image to prove you point
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Quoting Neapolitan:

I think that radar shows some turning, but the long-range out of San Juan shows more than just east-to-west movement.

I see E-W,SE & NW movement.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Really building convection now.. still no closed LLC from what I can see.


Cyclonic turning is more evident today on visible then yesterday.

Elsewhere, it looks like the EPAC will spit out another storm quite soon and be tied with the Atlantic again (Greg).
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Quoting wxmobilejim:

I live in semmes too
Seriously?Where?
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LADobeLady-- I really appreciate the info you put up, it helps to know this, cause there are people that have it hard and need to know stuff like this to where it could save them money. I use gatorade bottles to, I have a deep freezer and put a lot of bottles in there to freeze so we can have something cold to drink. Thank you again for the info.

sheri
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Anyone know if Recon has been cancelled, looks like it might still be on

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 151500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 15 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 15.0N 65.0W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 17/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
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Quoting THL3:


Some of us need electricity to run the water wells which can be out for weeks. Also for non potable water storage use plastic trash cans outside. They are cheap and lots of different sizes.


The other consideration is sewage, like many other coastal areas our location is largley terrain wise well... flat. Many of the municipalities around here would not restore water service after the hurricane because so many sewage plants and sewage lift stations were damaged in Ike. Water that goes down the drain has to go somewhere, and that is generally to the lowest point in a system, if the system is not functioning to pump it to the sewage plants. Because of the damaged sewage system around here a lot of folks in Shoreacres and Seabrook (lowest elevation points) got the added bonus of large volumes of raw sewage backing up in their homes and in some cases litterally covering the house from floor to ceiling.

Just try and figure out who is responsible for covering that little doozie on your insurance policies after a hurricane.....
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Danielle had not even formed yet at this time. We only had Alex, TS Bonnie, And TS Colin by this time last year....


Your right, Danielle formed on August 21st last year. Got a graph paper I use and every day a tropical cyclone is active I color in a box.
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Quoting Patrap:
A Lady called Camille

Aug 17th, 1969



1959 – Quake Lake: Quake Lake is formed by the magnitude 7.5 1959 Yellowstone earthquake near Hebgen Lake in Montana.
1969 – Category 5 Hurricane Camille hits the Mississippi coast, killing 248 people and causing $1.5 billion in damage.
1999 – A 7.4-magnitude earthquake strikes İzmit, Turkey, killing more than 17,000 and injuring 44,000.

August 18 1983 – Hurricane Alicia hits the Texas coast, killing 22 people and causing over USD $1 billion in damage (1983 dollars).

August 19 1955 – In the Northeast United States, severe flooding caused by Hurricane Diane, claims 200 lives.
2005 – A series of strong storms lashes Southern Ontario spawning several tornadoes as well as creating extreme flash flooding within the city of Toronto and its surrounding communities. In Toronto, it is also dubbed as the Toronto Supercell.

August 21 2007 – Hurricane Dean makes its first landfall in Costa Maya, Mexico with winds at 165 mph (266 km/h). Dean is the first storm since Hurricane Andrew to make landfall as a Category 5.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Camille was 190, that must have been insane.
I was in Bay St. Louis the morning before and we left to come back to New Orleans--figuring we'd come back after the storm passed. Little did we know, there would be nothing left to come back to. Camille was a beast.
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Really building convection now.. still no closed LLC from what I can see.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23590
Quoting AussieStorm:

And the other one was Earl. Right?

yes earl was one but it formed about 2 weeks later then now.
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Quoting Bobsled27:
What about Camille?


Camille was 190, that must have been insane.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23590
Im not far off of west lee ^_^.
Let's see what the new run of the GFS brings .. judging by initialization it may shunt the storm eastward.
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Quoting SPLbeater:
Definately a far cry from 2010, where at this time we had already had 3 hurricanes, Category 2 Alex and Category 4 hurricane Danielle
Danielle had not even formed yet at this time. We only had Alex, TS Bonnie, And TS Colin by this time last year....
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
161. Jax82
Quoting Neapolitan:
Wow, I'm impressed: 78 comments debating the pros and cons of storing emergency drinking water in plastic milk jugs--and some of us get jumped on for discussing the climate? ;-)

93L looks to be developing nicely today. The RGB loop clearly shows low-level cyclonic turning beginning to pick up. My guess is that pressures are falling; with that in mind, I'd say at least 40% by this afternoon, and TD status no later than Thursday.


Looks like you could fill up some of those juggs if you stick em outside today. Looking rainy down there.
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Nothing on PR Radar.


I think that radar shows some turning, but the long-range out of San Juan shows more than just east-to-west movement.
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Quoting SouthALWX:
129.
I live in Chickasaw. I go to South as a meteorology student.
Thats where my husband grew up at on West Lee St.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Wow, I'm impressed: 78 comments debating the merits of storing emergency drinking water in plastic milk jugs--and some of us get jumped on for discussing the climate? ;-)

93L looks to be developing nicely today. The RGB loop clearly shows low-level cyclonic turning beginning to pick up. My guess is that pressures are falling; with that in mind, I'd say at least 40% by this afternoon, and TD status no later than Thursday.


Hey Neap enough with the Milk Jugs and cheetos! How's global warming today?
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What about Camille?
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
In reponse to post 88.Already went through that doomsday scenario,Sept 12,1979.Look at the rank of the storm after it hit, and the sustained windspeed.It in my opinion is a forgotten storm.Stronger wind wise,than Ivan,Katrina,Jeanne,Ike,Opal,Gustav,or any other to hit the conus in the last 35 years.Only Andrew,charley,And Hugo Bbarely were stronger wind wise at landfall.And itwas a much larger storm than charley or andrew.So for us in SE MS. and South Ala,thats a rerun.Hey pat I know you know what tommorrow is?So sad not mentioned once on this blog today.Must be a lot of teens on today.
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Nothing is going on yet at the surface with 93L. This buoy is at 15N 67.5W and is reporting rising pressures and ENE winds....

Link
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting MahFL:
Oh and FEMA better supply me with Zephyrhills Natural Spring Water, no cheap ass water mind, LOL.


Zephyrhills is the best bottled water. I use to get it all the time when I lived in Clearwater. Some people think there isn't a difference - "water is water" - they haven't had Zephyrhills.

Anyway, here in Houston, we broke our record for consecutive 100-degree days yesterday with 15, and that is likely to continue through tomorrow or Thursday. Previous record was 14 days in 1980.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Wow, I'm impressed: 78 comments debating the merits of storing emergency drinking water in plastic milk jugs--and some of us get jumped on for discussing the climate? ;-)

93L looks to be developing nicely today. The RGB loop clearly shows low-level cyclonic turning beginning to pick up. My guess is that pressures are falling; with that in mind, I'd say at least 40% by this afternoon, and TD status no later than Thursday.


Nothing on PR Radar.

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August 11th-20th points of origin through 1950

For those of you who can trust TWC.
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150. 7544
is it the wave at 43 west or 31 west the models turns into the big one ?tia
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
SouthALWX where do live in Ala?I am in Semmes just north of Mobile.

I live in semmes too
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Well... Release the KRAKEN!!! 12Z GFS running and so far initializing a decent low associated with P17L:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4929
Quoting MahFL:
We've lost power two times from far away passing hurricames ( Jeanne and Charly I think ). One was 6 hours and one 18 hours. Best advice, some ice and water, some food you can eat cold, and a battery powered TV.


And remember that battery operated tv must be DIGITAL tv.

I've had to get rid of a couple of old portable tvs after the switch-over.
Member Since: May 18, 2007 Posts: 289 Comments: 1639

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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