Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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For those who missed it.

00z ECMWF



00z CMC (144 hours)


00z UKMET (120 hours)
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Quoting Patrap:

Margie Keipers Katrina Sureg Series, wunderground


I am amazed that even after the time that has passed, I still see new images from Katrina that are nearly unbelievable.
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90 hours:

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The Tropics are heating up with moisture -the Atlantic IR satellite is full of color for the Caribbean eastward.
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241. yoboi
maybe we should save used bleach containers to store water in less bacteria...
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ESL by LSU GOES-13 93L WV, LARGER IMAGE



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I was thinking that as well Pat.... Andrew was worse in ways, other storms were worse in others. If you were in the core of andrew, it might have been the worst. However, there was alot more net damage from Katrina. Example: Kind of like comparing a major earthquake to a violent tornado.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I'm seeing low clouds moving from NW to SE on the NASA visible and maybe a hint at some moving from WNW to ESE. 93L is starting to get its act together. I'd expect the vort to jump a little farther to the north and associate itself with the convection later today.



Yea, I thought that was interesting. At first I almost thought it was the tropical wave axis separating from the convection last night, until I looped it and it was yesterday's convection. Very curious.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24018
Quoting LADobeLady:


YOU CANNOT USE MILK JUGS! It will make you/your family sick. You can't thoroughly remove the milk protein from the jugs. Google before you give advice that will make people sick.

Link
I believe they were talking about using the jugs as ICE not drinking water.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
While I see what you are talking about, surface obs do not yet support this. If anything it is most likely in the mid-levels.


It has to start somewhere and really, there aren't too many surface obs out there.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
But look at the plan issued yesterday:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 15 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 15.0N 65.0W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 17/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA FOR 15/1800Z AND 16/0600Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 15/1100Z.

92L was never even there. 93L was the only thing scheduled for 16/1800Z. Thus if something was cancelled at 16/1800Z it had to be 93L.


92L was southeast of Bermuda when it got deactivated due to proximity to Gert and then recon canceled its mission into the system.
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




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Quoting wxmobilejim:
right off of 98 by MGM
Cool I live off Lott rd and Coleman Dairy,To stay on subject I sure hope the GFS is wrong.
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12z GFS starts to show 9XL organizing east of the islands by 72 hours.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:


I'm not saying it won't get pulled farther north, as I believe it has a good chance of doing so. Just meant to say, don't expect it to happen anytime soon. I think the key for 93L will be to see if convection persists through D-min today. I believe if it can do this, then it will have taken a large step forward from all the previous days of tracking it. Thus far, any progress it made, it has lost every day during d-min. If it can sustain convection through the diurnal cycles, then it has a much better shot at lowering surface pressures and forming a surface circulation.


I agree completely.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I'm seeing low clouds moving from NW to SE on the NASA visible and maybe a hint at some moving from WNW to ESE. 93L is starting to get its act together. I'd expect the vort to jump a little farther to the north and associate itself with the convection later today.

While I see what you are talking about, surface obs do not yet support this. If anything it is most likely in the mid-levels.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Quoting bigeasystormcaster:
TROPICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BASIN:

Other than dying TS Gert there are no features that have any chance to develop over the next 5-7 days due to unfavorable upper winds and dry, dusty air throughout the tropical Atlantic basin.



Hmmmm...should I trust your forecast of the National Hurricane Center's forecast??? LOL.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



look at the loop and you tell me it wont be a problem after you see what way its moving..


Your nothing but a troll cloudburst, don't think anyone cares about your speculations POOF
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


There would be a correction by now, they cancelled the recon scheduled for 92L.
But look at the plan issued yesterday:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 151500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT MON 15 AUGUST 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z AUGUST 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-076

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 15.0N 65.0W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 17/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA FOR 15/1800Z AND 16/0600Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 15/1100Z.

92L was never even there. 93L was the only thing scheduled for 16/1800Z. Thus if something was cancelled at 16/1800Z it had to be 93L.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448


few strong winds, vigorous tropical wave thats for sure!
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93L is doing a good job so far today hanging on to the surface convergence that has developed. Vorticity at 850, 700 and 500 mb levels still looking good as well.

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GOES-EAST CONUST Vis 8 image animation
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24018
I'm seeing low clouds moving from NW to SE on the NASA visible and maybe a hint at some moving from WNW to ESE. 93L is starting to get its act together. I'd expect the vort to jump a little farther to the north and associate itself with the convection later today.

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93L's dissipated convection from yesterday has formed a sort of "downdraft boundary", which is acting like a shield if you will.

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Yep, but the persistent convection could pull it more to the north.
Quoting AllStar17:


On visible loops I see a very slight spin farther to the north. Obviously it is poorly-organized.


I'm not saying it won't get pulled farther north, as I believe it has a good chance of doing so. Just meant to say, don't expect it to happen anytime soon. I think the key for 93L will be to see if convection persists through D-min today. I believe if it can do this, then it will have taken a large step forward from all the previous days of tracking it. Thus far, any progress it made, it has lost every day during d-min. If it can sustain convection through the diurnal cycles, then it has a much better shot at lowering surface pressures and forming a surface circulation.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
218. yoboi
how much bleach do you use in milk jugs?
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212, yes. yes it is ^_^. You're just up the road a piece :)
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Yes, clearly.


Maybe rethink the obvious,,

One could drive across Andrews swath of Damage in a Hour,.

It takes 3hours to drive across K in 2005 from Mobile to Houma, La and 110 Miles inland.






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Quoting mcluvincane:


My point exactly, most of the SAL is north of the waves coming off of africa. Minimal SAL to the west. Shoildn't be a problem at all

I agree. I don't see SAL being that big of a problem for now
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
About recon, This is the plan issued today:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 17/1545Z
D. 15.0N 74.50W
E. 17/1615Z TO 18/2015Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 18/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA
FOR 16/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/1300Z.

See that is what confuses me. There was no mission SE of Bermuda scheduled at that time. I think it is just a typo and they cancelled the mission into 93L. Besides, I don't see why they would fly into it anyway. Not very many signs of a surface circulation at this time.


There would be a correction by now, they cancelled the recon scheduled for 92L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24018
Quoting SouthALWX:
Im not far off of west lee ^_^.
Let's see what the new run of the GFS brings .. judging by initialization it may shunt the storm eastward.


Is that West Lee St in Chickasaw? I'm from Satsuma.

sheri
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Good morning all! I see quite a few of my fellow "Alabama" people are on today! I noticed a reference regarding Hurricane Frederick - I remember that well! MrsAlaGranny - I live in Mobile, as well. You actually look very familiar - are you related to the McKee's? Have a great day everyone!
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Seriously?Where?
right off of 98 by MGM
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TROPICAL OUTLOOK FOR THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC BASIN:

Other than dying TS Gert there are no features that have any chance to develop over the next 5-7 days due to unfavorable upper winds and dry, dusty air throughout the tropical Atlantic basin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
About recon, This is the plan issued today:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 17/1545Z
D. 15.0N 74.50W
E. 17/1615Z TO 18/2015Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 18/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA
FOR 16/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/1300Z.

See that is what confuses me. There was no mission SE of Bermuda scheduled at that time. I think it is just a typo and they cancelled the mission into 93L. Besides, I don't see why they would fly into it anyway. Not very many signs of a surface circulation at this time.

No that was for the old 92L before it was absorbed by Gert!!!
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Quoting nofailsafe:


I saw this on here at one point, kind of a neat idea. It's basically just a bag that goes in your bathtub with a spigot. WaterBOB


And Aquapod.
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Quoting AllStar17:
I really don't think the "center" is where this map has it. I feel it is/will form farther to the north.



I would post the center around 14.5 N, 67.5 W as of now. Some low level spin, maybe closed maybe not. Cant define a LLC completelyLink
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203. 7544
anyone think we might see see new yellow added by the nhc with the two waves behind 93l ?
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Quoting AussieStorm:


Link


That is funny! Thanks!
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Vorticity charts still suggest it is that far south.


On visible loops I see a very slight spin farther to the north. Obviously it is poorly-organized.
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MILK JUG REDUX.

Just for those of you that have large freezers that are not full, you can save a lot of energy cost by filling the unused space with milk jugs full of water. Having the space filled helps maintain a steady temperature and reduces cycling of the compressor. If power goes out it will help maintain the temp in the freezer and when you need the space just toss the jug out.

One additional benefit of using the empty milk jugs. When frozen you can cut the plastic away from the block of ice and use it for a target. A block of ice from a milk jug will turn into snow when hit with a hot loaded 22-250.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Vorticity charts still suggest it is that far south.


Yep, but the persistent convection could pull it more to the north.
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About recon, This is the plan issued today:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 17/1545Z
D. 15.0N 74.50W
E. 17/1615Z TO 18/2015Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 18/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA
FOR 16/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/1300Z.

See that is what confuses me. There was no mission SE of Bermuda scheduled at that time. I think it is just a typo and they cancelled the mission into 93L. Besides, I don't see why they would fly into it anyway. Not very many signs of a surface circulation at this time.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.