Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting USAFwxguy:
6Z v. 12Z GFS

6:


12:
GFS has been pretty consistent.
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Storms should not be rated by cost, what if the costs were recalcualted on todays real estate prices there would probably be change in the order.. ..
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
144 hours:



Could i have a link to those runs? All my links got deleted.
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Quoting scott39:
Granny I could walk to your house through the sticks. I live on Jack Williams.
Wow.I seen you obn here since last year and spoke a few times but never knew you were so close.Small world.So what is your take on 93L?
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Quoting Patrap:
RECON was cancelled way earlier..

There will be no Invest 93L RECON today

HH POD



well i been saying that for a few hours unless they wanted to go check on the fish for some reason...
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Quoting Patrap:
RECON was cancelled way earlier..

There will be no Invest 93L RECON today

HH POD


That says for the area SE of Bermuda.
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What is a CNN Moment?

It's when Anderson Cooper uses style over substance to rob Aaron Brown of his job.
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6Z v. 12Z GFS

6:


12:
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Quoting Patrap:
RECON was cancelled way earlier..

There will be no Invest 93L RECON today

HH POD
That's what I thought Pat but notice in the marks section it says SE of Bermuda, not S of Puerto Rico.
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*REPOST*


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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
175. catastropheadjuster 11:48 AM EDT on August 16, 2011 +0
LADobeLady-- I really appreciate the info you put up, it helps to know this, cause there are people that have it hard and need to know stuff like this to where it could save them money. I use gatorade bottles to, I have a deep freezer and put a lot of bottles in there to freeze so we can have something cold to drink. Thank you again for the info.

sheri




great idea, sheri!!

:)


Hey, I even when I know something is coming make about 10 gallons of Tea cause ya know us southerners can't do with out our tea, we have withdraws. LOL

sheri
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Quoting ILwthrfan:


Yeah but as each of these disturbances develop cyclonic flow they almost immediately entrain that dry air to thier north which has greatly hampered development of most storms this season at some point. As long as that SAL is that dense and that closely located to the MDR its going to be one dozey of a storm to be able to fend that off.




++ 1000
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Cool I live off Lott rd and Coleman Dairy,To stay on subject I sure hope the GFS is wrong.
Granny I could walk to your house through the sticks. I live on Jack Williams.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
144 hours:

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I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 15.0N 65.0W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT




Maybe as the POD is updated,,but no TAIL # Designated so most likely they will CANCEL the 18Z flight
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Still no surface low but a wind shift which was largely absent last night.



Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
If 93L does have a closed LLC (which I really doubt), I would put it at 15N 68W.

Link
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I see what you are saying. I'm hearing from other boards that recon is still a go. I guess we will find out how much organizing it has done this morning.




if recon does go out for this i have seen it all...i cant believe they would go out when no coc is there pressures have been rising...it looks very sick..my money on these intelligent folks is they cancel..
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Quoting mcluvincane:


My point exactly, most of the SAL is north of the waves coming off of africa. Minimal SAL to the west. Shoildn't be a problem at all


Yeah but as each of these disturbances develop cyclonic flow they almost immediately entrain that dry air to thier north which has greatly hampered development of most storms this season at some point. As long as that SAL is that dense and that closely located to the MDR its going to be one dozey of a storm to be able to fend that off.
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274. Skyepony (Mod)
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SEE BELOW:

Per the Hurricane Center, Hurricane Andrew was the #1 costliest hurricane in US history.



U.S. Forecasters Predict Busy Rest of Hurricane Season


Published August 04, 2011| Associated Press


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly upgraded its May outlook, calling for 14 to 19 named tropical storms, up from a range of 14 to 18.

That includes the five tropical storms that have formed since the six-month hurricane season started June 1. It ends Nov. 30 and the peak period for hurricanes runs from August through October.

"We expect considerable activity," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Washington.

"There is absolutely no reason that people should be complacent," Bell said. "Now is the time people really need to make sure they have their hurricane preparedness plans in place."

Tropical storms get named when their top winds reach 39 mph or higher. NOAA now expects seven to 10 named storms to strengthen into hurricanes with top winds of 74 mph or higher, and three to five of those hurricanes could become major storms with winds blowing 111 mph or more.

In May, forecasters called for six to 10 hurricanes this season. The seasonal average is 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Key climate factors predicted in May continue to boost forecasters' expectations for an above-average season, Bell said.

"The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October," Bell said. "Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we've seen so far this season."

Atmospheric and marine conditions indicate a high-activity era that began in 1995 continues, and ocean temperatures are the third warmest on record, he said.

The La Nina weather phenomenon also may redevelop this fall, Bell said.

La Nina is an unusual cooling of the Pacific waters near the equator. It cuts wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic, which gives tropical storms a chance to develop and strengthen before being ripped apart.

Forecasters say La Nina helped make the 2010 season one of the busiest on record with 19 named storms, including 12 hurricanes. The opposite El Nino phenomenon, which warms Pacific waters near the equator and increases wind shear over the Atlantic, helps suppress storm development.

"The numbers in May reflected the possibility that El Nino could develop. El Nino has not developed," Bell said.

Five tropical storms have developed so far this season.

The Mexican government reported 22 deaths after Tropical Storm Arlene came ashore June 30 with heavy rains that caused flooding and mudslides. Last week, Tropical Storm Don fizzled to a tropical depression just before crossing the Texas coastline.

On Thursday, officials urged Florida residents to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Emily, which brought drenching rain to parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic but weakened in the mountains dividing the two countries.

The storm was likely to cross eastern Cuba on Friday and might touch Florida on Saturday, though the projected track would keep its center offshore, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The last hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Ike in 2008. Though not considered a major hurricane, Ike caused $10 billion in damage in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas, making it the third-costliest storm after Hurricanes Andrew in 1992 and Katrina in 2005, according to the hurricane center.

The last major hurricane to strike the U.S. was Category 3 Hurricane Wilma, which made landfall in Florida in 2005.

"We've been quite lucky in recent years, but that's no reason to be complacent," said Steve Woodward, the Federal Emergency Management Agency's deputy assistant administrator for response. "As spring and summer have taught us, with tornadoes and flooding and the heat wave, disasters can strike practically anytime and anywhere."

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ESL by LSU GOES-13 Low Cloud Product Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Quoting Patrap:


Your CNN Moments are well versed.

Most of us here are BI-State folks with relatives and property in Both States, coastal and inland.

Your point is well recieved.

Maybe look a the the thumbnails and get back to us in a week.



Sorry I seem to have irritated you with a simple POV. I was grossly unaware of your sensitivity to the subject, and for that I apologize.

What is a CNN Moment?
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93 looks better surprisingly considering 93 is in the dead zone. thought it would of puffed by now. regardless my eyes are on the cape verde islands could be a sept 1st present for some community
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126

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Quoting MississippiWx:


It's just now getting its act together...Wouldn't expect much in the way of pressure falls yet.
I see what you are saying. I'm hearing from other boards that recon is still a go. I guess we will find out how much organizing it has done this morning.
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A Battery or Crank powered radio is a essential Hurricane Prep item,,way more than a TV.

Official Words and info are way better than rumors always.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Clouds to the NW of the COC have some interesting motion to them.

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Quoting wxmobilejim:

Yes I hope so too. It will change 100 times between now and next week. I'm a little younger than everyone else here I only remember Ivan, Katrina, Dennis, and a little from Danny. I've heard crazy stories from Camile and Fredric.
Yes it will change.I am keeping a close eye on 93L as well.It could get tricky out there.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
93L's dissipated convection from yesterday has formed a sort of "downdraft boundary", which is acting like a shield if you will.



the "shield" you refer to looks like upper level clouds remnant from a burst of convection that stimulated upper level outflow. as per this water vapor image they are about -30 C which is far above the surface

This is likely an indication of moistening environment but is not resultant from a downdraft
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Katrina then was 3X as bad.

Impact area, geographically, was indeed greater with K. I agree with you, sir. But "storm caused, direct" devastation may have been greater with A.

Take away the levee failures, and the focus shifts to MS where direct effects were greater.


Your CNN Moments are well versed.

Most of us here are BI-State folks with relatives and property in Both States, coastal and inland.

Your point is well recieved.

Maybe look a the the thumbnails and get back to us in a week.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
There is a buoy at 15N 67.5W which is very close to where a "center" would be... It has shown rising pressure this morning. Not impressed at the moment.


It's just now getting its act together...Wouldn't expect much in the way of pressure falls yet.
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117 hours

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Quoting Patrap:


Maybe rethink the obvious,,

One could drive across Andrews swath of Damage in a Hour,.

It takes 3hours to drive across K in 2005 from Mobile to Houma, La and 110 Miles inland.








Katrina then was 3X as bad.

Impact area, geographically, was indeed greater with K. I agree with you, sir. But "storm caused, direct" devastation may have been greater with A.

Take away the levee failures, and the focus shifts to MS where direct effects were greater. [edit... but not to the scale of S Fl after A]
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Quoting NavarreMark:


The U.S. has plenty of money. They should go ahead and send it out.


+1000, I hate when people make comments like that especially when it comes to the welfare of people.:o
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Skipping school today?
Still got until the 22nd down here. Some schools in south Florida don't start until the 29th though...unfortunately I'm not in one of them lol.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Cool I live off Lott rd and Coleman Dairy,To stay on subject I sure hope the GFS is wrong.

Yes I hope so too. It will change 100 times between now and next week. I'm a little younger than everyone else here I only remember Ivan, Katrina, Dennis, and a little from Danny. I've heard crazy stories from Camile and Fredric.
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Quoting hcubed:


And remember that battery operated tv must be DIGITAL tv.

I've had to get rid of a couple of old portable tvs after the switch-over.
I get nothing on my digital TV now. Only three stations on my old TV. Does this mean I will get digital TV after a storm hits?
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Nothing to compare.... by all accounts, Andrew was the worst hurricane to hit the US....even a caveman could see that....


Oh no you didn't! First I had to battle Geico and now you? I get absolutely NO respect!
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239. SouthALWX 12:07 PM EDT on August 16, 2011 +0
I was thinking that as well Pat.... Andrew was worse in ways, other storms were worse in others. If you were in the core of andrew, it might have been the worst. However, there was alot more net damage from Katrina. Example: Kind of like comparing a major earthquake to a violent tornado
.


Andrew was the worst hurricane to hit the US...this was not determined by personal experiences, but by cold, hard facts...objective facts....the only real way to evaluate anything....
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Quoting MississippiWx:


It has to start somewhere and really, there aren't too many surface obs out there.
There is a buoy at 15N 67.5W which is very close to where a "center" would be... It has shown rising pressure this morning. Not impressed at the moment.
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251. Skyepony (Mod)
Great blog. Thanks for all the stats.

Asia is getting alotta flooding too.

Thousands of families are facing fresh misery in Southern Pakistan - as torrential rains hit Sindh province. Children’s charity Plan International says up to 300,000 people in Badin district have been left homeless by flooding. The most vulnerable are being evacuated after one foot of water swamped their homes. "Our specialist disaster response teams are on the ground in Sindh province where thousands of people are in need of food, shelter and safe drinking water," says Haider Yaqub, Plan’s Country Director in Pakistan. "More rain is forecast in the next few days and there are fears the problems will escalate.” Sindh province was one of the worst hit by last year’s devastating floods with 7.5 million people affected. In response to this latest disaster, the government has set up temporary relief camps in 43 high schools. However, they are only housing 20 per cent of the people displaced. "Some families are also taking shelter in primary schools and health centres," says Mr Yaqub. "The majority are stranded on the roadside as they’ve been unable to reach the camps." Plan’s teams are focusing on providing shelter, as well as clean water and sanitation – as well as setting up safe spaces for children affected by the floods. "We are aiming to ensure children, especially girls, are kept safe from harm during this difficult time," explains Mr. Yaqub. Heavy rains are taking a toll across South Asia. About one million people have been affected by floods in Southern Bangladesh.
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Quoting rod2635:
1. Canned food
2. Freeze dried food
3. Sterno and small collapseable sterno backpacking stove
4. Water proof matches
5. Advance water supply in disinfected jugs, chlorine is a good killer of just about anything...be sure to rinse well after use
6. Water disinfectant pills...used them backpacking and never got sick. Get at any decent camping store. Water tastes a little funny but its ok.
7. Batteries and battery operated TV/Radio
8. Knowledge that it will be over at some point

Most of this stuff I carried into the wilderness backpacking where there is no food, the water is questionable and fire is what you make of it. Can easily work at home.


Have you ever heard of a Kelly Kettle?

www.kellykettleusa.com

Part of my hurricane supplies.
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Quoting extreme236:


92L was southeast of Bermuda when it got deactivated due to proximity to Gert and then recon canceled its mission into the system.
I understand 92L was there. My point is it was not on the plan of the day so how could they cancel it if it was never there? Idk I guess we'll see soon enough. Even if recon does fly out, I really doubt they find anything more than a tropical wave. 93L is moving way too fast.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
90 hours:



Skipping school today?
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Quoting SouthALWX:
I was thinking that as well Pat.... Andrew was worse in ways, other storms were worse in others. If you were in the core of andrew, it might have been the worst. However, there was alot more net damage from Katrina. Example: Kind of like comparing a major earthquake to a violent tornado.


I count a Impact by Lives lost and affected always,
All else is moot if your Dead.


Everything is relative to a observer.

And as a rule I never compare calamity.


Its pointless.


"Calamity knows no border's,only men's minds and map's do".





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129419
For those who missed it.

00z ECMWF



00z CMC (144 hours)


00z UKMET (120 hours)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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