Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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288 hours:

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HERE THEY COME!!

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LOL it looks like the epic-long range 12Z GFS is forecasting the ultimate worst case Miami-New Orleans scenario. Bring on the hype.
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NHC wave height forecast map
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It never has to be big and windy to create a Disaster. It only has to linger.

Allison is a perfect example as it Killed in Multiple States,and is still the only TS to have its name retired.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Word from the NYSE is that Fresca just skyrocketed.



dang..thats the whole state of florida..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
Quoting scott39:
90% moderate to strong TS into Yucatan and then Mexico/S Texas. 10% hurricane more Central/N Gulf Coast. My eyes keep wandering to that big TC, the models keep throwing our way. Wooo Wee!!!
As do mine Scott.That is a scary scenario.
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Word from the NYSE is that Fresca just skyrocketed.



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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL, 06z went all out I see.



A glitch I hope.
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Good morning.

Blog update:

Tropical Tidbit for Tuesday, August 16th, with Video
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335. 7544
Quoting WxLogic:
Hmm...



its going to be another fla run watch counting them
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i put 93L at 67.5 and 14.2
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Quoting scott39:
90% moderate to strong TS into Yucatan and then Mexico/S Texas. 10% hurricane more Central/N Gulf Coast. My eyes keep wandering to that big TC, the models keep throwing our way. Wooo Wee!!!
Where did you get these % from?
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332. JLPR2
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
12z is showing a pretty gnarly track.

Prepare for multiple "OMG" and "Wow" posts.


OMG! XD
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Quoting angiest:


Here we go, this link has a table showing several significant storms from 1900 through 2005 (US only) showing real damages, inflation-adjusted damages, and wealth normalized damages.


and on that list sits tropical storm allison..which goes to show a storm dosent have to be a hurricane to cause significant damage..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 16083
12z is showing a pretty gnarly track.

Prepare for multiple "OMG" and "Wow" posts.
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240 hours:

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Quoting Grothar:
The HWRF has moved slightly North on this run.




Angle off the Yucatan is a big factor as the System grows considerably at the end of that run Gro,,one to watch.

Def.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Hmm...

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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Wow.I seen you obn here since last year and spoke a few times but never knew you were so close.Small world.So what is your take on 93L?
90% moderate to strong TS into Yucatan and then Mexico/S Texas. 10% hurricane more Central/N Gulf Coast. My eyes keep wandering to that big TC, the models keep throwing our way. Wooo Wee!!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6899
Quoting CybrTeddy:
A day at Dr. Masters blog.. today should be no different.. with maybe a few more pies.
Link


The blog has it's own theme...

Catchy?
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
That's what I thought Pat but notice in the marks section it says SE of Bermuda, not S of Puerto Rico.

Just need to keep watch on GE for a flight from St Croix
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Quoting PaulinJax:
Storms should not be rated by cost, what if the costs were recalcualted on todays real estate prices there would probably be change in the order.. ..


Here we go, this link has a table showing several significant storms from 1900 through 2005 (US only) showing real damages, inflation-adjusted damages, and wealth normalized damages.
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Trough lifting and ridge building...

Should head WNW

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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Yes it will change.I am keeping a close eye on 93L as well.It could get tricky out there.
is this in ABBEVILLE LA
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The HWRF has moved slightly North on this run.

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Quoting CaneHunter031472:
OMG

LOL, 06z went all out I see.
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Quoting hahaguy:


Could i have a link to those runs? All my links got deleted.
You say you need links, eh? All the links you need!

Link
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A day at Dr. Masters blog.. today should be no different.. with maybe a few more pies.
Link
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315. MahFL
Quoting NavarreMark:


The U.S. has plenty of money. They should go ahead and send it out.


Your joking right
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35.5n61.1w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Gert's_12pmGMT_ATCF
35.5n60.6w, 37.1n58.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 15August_12pmGMT and ending 16August_12pmGMT

The 4 short line-segments represent TS.Gert's path and
the longest line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TropicalStormGert's travel-speed was 26.8mph(43.2k/h) on a heading of 46.1degrees(NE)
TS.Gert was headed toward passage over Currane,Ireland ~3days19hours from now

Copy&paste 31.5n63.3w-32.7n62.9w, 32.7n62.9w-33.9n62.2w, 33.9n62.2w-35.5n60.6w, 35.5n60.6w-37.1n58.5w, noc, 35.5n60.6w-53.863n9.907w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 16August_6amGMT)
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Quoting hahaguy:


Could i have a link to those runs? All my links got deleted.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models.html
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Trough hanging off of the EC

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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Nothing to compare.... by all accounts, Andrew was the worst hurricane to hit the US....even a caveman could see that....


CM,
Not saying that Andrew was in any way not one bad storm, but by my account Ike was much worse. Reason being is simple something that happens to you personally is always going to outweigh any perspective (internally) you might have on something you have only read about or witnessed via the internet, televison, or read about. Trying to argue a point like this is useless here, you have many people with many different perspectives. A great many of them first hand and very very bad for where they were on a certain fatefull day.
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Maybe they need a new scale to measure Hurricanes that takes into account Winds, Rains , Storm Surge etc.... The Doom Scale ...
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Seems thats the sneaky lil corner skyepony. Noted that when I arose this am.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting PaulinJax:
Storms should not be rated by cost, what if the costs were recalcualted on todays real estate prices there would probably be change in the order.. ..


There have been some recalculations to take into effect, not just inflation, but also taking into account what the storm would do today. There was a storm in south Florida that, IIRC, would cause over $100 billion in damages today. Let me see if I can find it.
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
239. SouthALWX 12:07 PM EDT on August 16, 2011 +0
I was thinking that as well Pat.... Andrew was worse in ways, other storms were worse in others. If you were in the core of andrew, it might have been the worst. However, there was alot more net damage from Katrina. Example: Kind of like comparing a major earthquake to a violent tornado
.


Andrew was the worst hurricane to hit the US...this was not determined by personal experiences, but by cold, hard facts...objective facts....the only real way to evaluate anything....


How about this? The folks that suffered loss of life, property, etc in Katrina will agree that storm was the worse. Folks affected by Andrew will argue, that was the worse. Galveston Island has been DEVASTATED TWICE and would argue their's is the worst! How about we all agree that any major storm that cause that much damage, loss of life, property, etc is horrible and not try to outdo each other? I went thru Frances, Jeanne and Wilma in a short amount of time. It was horrible. I can only imagine how all the people felt going thru major storms. I admire and respect all of you. Each storm is worse that someone else's IF you have been through that storm!
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OMG

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The convection is far removed from where the Invest was last initialized. Would not be surprised to see the change in where the center is now.

img src="">
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deleted double posting
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303. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
ESL by LSU GOES-13 Low Cloud Product Loop



Like so many other times this season looks like what was twisting up in the EPAC yesterday has 1/2 transferred to something trying to roll up the west side of BOC today.
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Quoting PaulinJax:
Storms should not be rated by cost, what if the costs were recalcualted on todays real estate prices there would probably be change in the order.. ..
Storms already are normalized for today's dollars and increased wealth. Think about it, people today own more stuff than people did 50 years ago due to advances in technology, etc.

This is the ranking as of 2005. One has recently come out that is as of 2010, but I'm too lazy to look for it ;~) Btw the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane wins for the most costliest.

Link
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Tropical Update With Video
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300. JLPR2
Jeez in the weather model world the NE Caribbean is a disaster zone.
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35.5n61.1w has been re-evaluated&altered for TS.Gert's_12pmGMT_ATCF
35.5n60.6w, 37.1n58.5w are now the most recent positions
Starting 15August_12pmGMT and ending 16August_12pmGMT

The 4 short line-segments represent TS.Gert's path and
the longest line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
TropicalStormGert's travel-speed was 26.8mph(43.2k/h) on a heading of 46.1degrees(NE)
TS.Gert was headed toward passage over Currane,Ireland ~3days19hours from now

Copy&paste 31.5n63.3w-32.7n62.9w, 32.7n62.9w-33.9n62.2w, 33.9n62.2w-35.5n60.6w, 35.5n60.6w-37.1n58.5w, noc, 35.5n60.6w-53.863n9.907w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 16August_6amGMT)
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Getting tangled with Hispaniola.

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279. Patrap 11:25 AM CDT on August 16, 2011 +0
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 16/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 16/1700Z
D. 15.0N 65.0W
E. 16/1730Z TO 16/2130Z





Maybe as the POD is updated,,but no TAIL # Designated so most likely they will CANCEL the 18Z flight

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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