Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Very solid storm way out at 384 hours:



Now, is that also a TC showing up in the far SW corner of the Caribbean?
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Not to mention the fact that the models have been dead on in not trully developing anything. They have been very conservative despite how much argument was made by many about formation. They are now predicting a huge event comming in 300 hours which when you think of it is very soon. I think we are about to see how reliable those computer models can be and their importance. That said, I'm positive there will be a big event perhaps even an impcat, but as far as pinpointing the location of such impact that is pure speculation, nevertheless seeing another Katrina right after I just finished rebuilding makes me shiver.
models are based what is programmed for them to put out so i dont rely on that it's only there for a possibility of what might happen
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
2007,when do you see it tagged as invest?


Probably 48-72 hours. The wave should continue in the ITCZ until it reaches the CATL where it may begin to organize.
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Quoting jpsb:


Really?

Galveston Tx, Sept. 8, 1900 over 6,000 dead.

Hurricane Diane Connecticut flood damage
08/17/1955
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HWRF developing first cane from 93L.

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The infamous trough??

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
922 AM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 20 2011 - 12Z TUE AUG 23 2011


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED THE 00Z/16 ECENS MEAN TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND
PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7. DO NOT HAVE MUCH FAITH IN ANY ONE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE MODELS HAVE
SHOWN POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. THE 00Z/16 GEFS MEAN IS AN
OUTLIER OVER MUCH OF CANADA THIS PERIOD...WITH THE DETERMINISTIC
GFS FROM THAT CYCLE CLUSTERING BETTER WITH THE ECENS
MEAN...ECMWF...AND UKMET. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FASTER WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE MAJOR TROUGH COMING INTO EASTERN CANADA DAY
6...WITH THE POLAR FRONT SURGING FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN UNITED STATES IN ITS WAKE.



CISCO
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15990
390. jpsb
Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Nothing to compare.... by all accounts, Andrew was the worst hurricane to hit the US....even a caveman could see that....


Really?

Galveston Tx, Sept. 8, 1900 over 6,000 dead.
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Quoting angiest:


But we've had, what, 3 out of the last 4 runs showing Gulf? Surprising consistent for that timeframe. However, the track does leave open east coast or recurve.


Not to mention the fact that the models have been dead on in not trully developing anything. They have been very conservative despite how much argument was made by many about formation. They are now predicting a huge event comming in 300 hours which when you think of it is very soon. I think we are about to see how reliable those computer models can be and their importance. That said, I'm positive there will be a big event perhaps even an impcat, but as far as pinpointing the location of such impact that is pure speculation, nevertheless seeing another Katrina right after I just finished rebuilding makes me shiver.
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2007,when do you see it tagged as invest?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
240 hours:


*coughing up cereal*
987, you say? What a way to wake up.

Swingshift present and accounted for.
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Quoting rv1pop:
I get nothing on my digital TV now. Only three stations on my old TV. Does this mean I will get digital TV after a storm hits?


Not sure of your set-up.

I'm talking about a hand-held portable and another combo tv/radio with no way to hook up an external antenna or Digital converter. They pick up nothing now.

I added a small digital TV to the evac supplies, and even with that, location is critical. Very weak, fuzzy signal from the local station (with the antenna they supplied). They do make battery powered amplified antennas, just haven't got around to getting one yet.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
JFV just wet himself.



ummm....didn't wet myself but did shutter a bit... that is like 3 days in a row now
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Quoting Patrap:
42 years ago tomorrow night, Ol Lady Camille rolled thru the La,Miss Coast.

Taking hundreds and reshaping the coastal region there.



History reminds us again..


This is a close second, Especially Press and NC.

Hurricane Diane August 17, 1955

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Quoting Levi32:
And although we don't care much for the GFS 15-day forecasts, the fact that it shows 2 more storms after this African wave illustrates how we are indeed in the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season now.



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Quoting 7544:
is it the wave at 42 the models develops to be the big one or the w one behind it thanks again
The one just west of the Cape Verde islands:

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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
SEE BELOW:


Per the Hurricane Center, Hurricane Andrew was the #1 costliest hurricane in US history.

U.S. Forecasters Predict Busy Rest of Hurricane Season


Published August 04, 2011| Associated Press


The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration slightly upgraded its May outlook, calling for 14 to 19 named tropical storms, up from a range of 14 to 18.

That includes the five tropical storms that have formed since the six-month hurricane season started June 1. It ends Nov. 30 and the peak period for hurricanes runs from August through October.

"We expect considerable activity," said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in Washington.

"There is absolutely no reason that people should be complacent," Bell said. "Now is the time people really need to make sure they have their hurricane preparedness plans in place."

Tropical storms get named when their top winds reach 39 mph or higher. NOAA now expects seven to 10 named storms to strengthen into hurricanes with top winds of 74 mph or higher, and three to five of those hurricanes could become major storms with winds blowing 111 mph or more.

In May, forecasters called for six to 10 hurricanes this season. The seasonal average is 11 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

Key climate factors predicted in May continue to boost forecasters' expectations for an above-average season, Bell said.

"The atmosphere and Atlantic Ocean are primed for high hurricane activity during August through October," Bell said. "Storms through October will form more frequently and become more intense than we've seen so far this season."

Atmospheric and marine conditions indicate a high-activity era that began in 1995 continues, and ocean temperatures are the third warmest on record, he said.

The La Nina weather phenomenon also may redevelop this fall, Bell said.

La Nina is an unusual cooling of the Pacific waters near the equator. It cuts wind shear over the Caribbean Sea and tropical Atlantic, which gives tropical storms a chance to develop and strengthen before being ripped apart.

Forecasters say La Nina helped make the 2010 season one of the busiest on record with 19 named storms, including 12 hurricanes. The opposite El Nino phenomenon, which warms Pacific waters near the equator and increases wind shear over the Atlantic, helps suppress storm development.

"The numbers in May reflected the possibility that El Nino could develop. El Nino has not developed," Bell said.

Five tropical storms have developed so far this season.

The Mexican government reported 22 deaths after Tropical Storm Arlene came ashore June 30 with heavy rains that caused flooding and mudslides. Last week, Tropical Storm Don fizzled to a tropical depression just before crossing the Texas coastline.

On Thursday, officials urged Florida residents to monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Emily, which brought drenching rain to parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic but weakened in the mountains dividing the two countries.

The storm was likely to cross eastern Cuba on Friday and might touch Florida on Saturday, though the projected track would keep its center offshore, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The last hurricane to make landfall in the United States was Ike in 2008. Though not considered a major hurricane, Ike caused $10 billion in damage in Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas, making it the third-costliest storm after Hurricanes Andrew in 1992 and Katrina in 2005, according to the hurricane center.The last major hurricane to strike the U.S. was Category 3 Hurricane Wilma, which made landfall in Florida in 2005.

"We've been quite lucky in recent years, but that's no reason to be complacent," said Steve Woodward, the Federal Emergency Management Agency's deputy assistant administrator for response. "As spring and summer have taught us, with tornadoes and flooding and the heat wave, disasters can strike practically anytime and anywhere."




You know, all this is is just a p-----g contest. A MAJOR storm is devastating. But any storm is devastating and miserable to those who are affected. Try it, Cornelia Marie...HOT, no electricity, no running water (well and pump need electric), BUGS, BUGS, BUGS, biting bugs, no clean laundry. No hot food unless you use the grill. If you are lucky and have a generator, you might be able to use fan, have some light at night, cook with the microwave. It is just miserable. Enough of this trivia and let's get back to following whatever might be brewing in the tropics.
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Quoting 7544:
is it the wave at 42 the models develops to be the big one or the w one behind it thanks again


The big one behind the 42W wave.
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yeah me too, blogg gonna explode soon wiat till 93L hits about 70 and 15
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Quoting angiest:
And at 360 hours, this rather impressive "storm" near the CV Islands.



the islands are going to catch it if that came to be..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15990
377. JLPR2
Quoting angiest:
And at 360 hours, this rather impressive "storm" near the CV Islands.



Yep, it shows the very first full-fleshed CV storm.
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And although we don't care much for the GFS 15-day forecasts, the fact that it shows 2 more storms after this African wave illustrates how we are indeed in the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season now.

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pete, I am just reporting what I have researched. Researched facts make me a troll? then so is everyone else on here.
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374. 7544
is it the wave at 42 the models develops to be the big one or the w one behind it thanks again
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CorneliaMarie is a perma banned member,,NRAamy to be exact.

So take it for what it's worth.

A storm stirrer.

Ciao for now.

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Quoting USAFwxguy:


That is a very good point. Worthy of repeating.


I don't think we have quite finished all of the flood mitigation projects inspired by Allison.
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NOAA plane with Dr. Masters aboard as Chief Flight Met, flies through the eye of hurricane Gilbert in 1988

This flight recorded the Lowest Atlantic Pressure ever in a Hurricane at the time.



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Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


How about this? The folks that suffered loss of life, property, etc in Katrina will agree that storm was the worse. Folks affected by Andrew will argue, that was the worse. Galveston Island has been DEVASTATED TWICE and would argue their's is the worst! How about we all agree that any major storm that cause that much damage, loss of life, property, etc is horrible and not try to outdo each other? I went thru Frances, Jeanne and Wilma in a short amount of time. It was horrible. I can only imagine how all the people felt going thru major storms. I admire and respect all of you. Each storm is worse that someone else's IF you have been through that storm!


This has to be the most sensible thing said about the subject, now maybe people will stop fighting like little kids claiming their storm was worse! It sucks for anyone affected by a storm and what ever is ranked as the worst today will someday be out done by another storm hitting a major city along the coast.
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And at 360 hours, this rather impressive "storm" near the CV Islands.

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CorneliaMarie (273)

What you're saying is false. Katrina caused more than $105 billion in damage in inflation-adjusted (2010) dollars and Andrew just over $45 billion. Link for the report is here.

Katrina killed 1,200 in the USA according to the NHC report. Andrew killed 26.

Both were awful storms, but Katrina was clearly more destructive and deadlier. We all know this.

You're just a troll trying to rile things up. Look at the join date. You have no history here.

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long range or not but the GFS and ECWMF have been pretty consistent in developing a storm especially in long range which is a rariety..I dont think you can use the argument that there wont be a storm anymore..
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15990
The GFS is much quicker than the ECMWF.
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
hey orca whats up big guy!


Not much... at work.. watching the fun :)
Waiting to see the mass hysteria as per normal.
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currently very gusty and squally in puerto rico's south shore (im off to surf :D )
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Quoting Patrap:
It never has to be big and windy to create a Disaster. It only has to linger.

Allison is a perfect example as it Killed in Multiple States,and is still the only TS to have its name retired.


That is a very good point. Worthy of repeating.
Member Since: August 10, 2011 Posts: 0 Comments: 403
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Category 2 hurricane probably. Major hurricane once it makes it's final landfall in the Gulf. Nothing to worry about. Specifics mean nothing this far out in time with a system that has yet to develop.


But we've had, what, 3 out of the last 4 runs showing Gulf? Surprising consistent for that timeframe. However, the track does leave open east coast or recurve.
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42 years ago tomorrow night, Ol Lady Camille rolled thru the La,Miss Coast.

Taking hundreds and reshaping the coastal region there.



History reminds us again..

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The TROF arriving on Monday/Tuesday of next week will be the decisive variable on how much latitude P97L attains before is pushed WNW again once the High start filling in.

We'll see how 12Z ECMWF performs with it quite soon.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5008
JFV just wet himself.

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Link

I think the center of 93L is around 14.5N/67.5W
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hey orca whats up big guy!
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Quoting 7544:


yeap how strong is that run showing tia
Category 2 hurricane probably. Major hurricane once it makes it's final landfall in the Gulf. Nothing to worry about though. Specifics mean nothing this far out in time with a system that has yet to develop.
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355. 7544
thanks how strong is that run for fla tia
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


The blog has it's own theme...

Catchy?


Very catchy.. LOL.
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Thanks
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Complete Update

The BLOB train is in full swing.

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI





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I shudder to think how many will utter the "K word" today.

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350. JLPR2
See I OMG'ed at 140hrs, 4-5 days from now.
Other people are OMG'ed with 8-9days.

It is unreliable at 140hrs, image at 250hrs. XD
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models, models, models, specially long range is just a speculation.
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348. 7544
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
240 hours:



yeap how strong is that run showing tia
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Where did you get these % from?
My own opinion of what Ive read. Pure speculation!!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6875
288 hours:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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