Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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445. 7544
hmm they might relocate furthe north on 93l
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EVERY hurricane to hit land was and will be in the future, catestrophic for someone...I was in Charleston for Hugo, my sister in law was in awendaw...they got the 20ft storm surge...we were hit by the eye and saved...had the eye hit to our south, Charleston would have been annilated by hugo just like Florida from Andrew...we were lucky in that respect, but, the damage was still very real...i had to move from extreme damage to my apartment building...out of 9 buildings, 6 were not livable...multiply that by 8 apartments per building and you have 48 families in a very small area that were displaced. it was weeks in some areas without power, we were under dusk to dawn curfew, yada yada yada...on the coast, we watch every single invest very carefully...i was one of the lucky ones, i found a place to live even tho the damage was extensive...what i saw during that storm, i hope i never see again...it was the scariest night of my life next to losing my daughter...
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Quoting JLPR2:


The system shown taking that path in the GFS run isn't 93L, it's the TW SW of the CV islands.


Ah, good point. That would explain it! Thanks JLPR2.

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442. 7544
maybe a yellow code latter today on the waves behind 93l ?
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441. JLPR2
Quoting TallyNole:
Just curious if anyone knows... The Weather Underground models chart doesn't show the GFS track currently. If you look at the model, it has Invest 93 curving up to Lousiana. I was wondering why they aren't showing the track on the model chart?

Is the GFS run discounted?


The system shown taking that path in the GFS run isn't 93L, it's the TW SW of the CV islands.
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93L, another Mitch?
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Did you know? Three year olds are into mine is bigger or hurts more, etc. I don't think we've gone that young yet.

I went through the worst of Andrew, lived the aftermath for months and months, and it was heart rending.

Katrina was awful in ways that can't be described, that anyone with an ounce of empathy had to feel. To drown in your own home, how horrible.

So stop with the stupidity --- devastating hurricanes are just that, devastating, and trying to minimize what someone else went through is the sign of a little mind.
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93L is decent-looking for being embedded in a fast trade wind flow. Pressures are still rather high with it though. This probably has a decent chance to become a tropical storm in the western Caribbean.

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Allan Huffman..

Elsewhere

Global models remain pretty gung ho on developing the system currently off the African coast. As of now this system is entangled in the ITCZ but a tropical wave axis is analyzed around 25W.

Neither the GFS nor ECMWF show rapid intensification with this system. In fact on Sunday evening, the ECMWF still only has the system as a 1011-1012 mb trough, while the GFS 1004mb tropical storm. Both models steer the system generally westward and have it near the northern Islands by this time frame. The western end of the Atlantic Ridge begins to weaken by early next week as a trough moves into the Northeast US. Both models show the storm threatening Puerto Rico by early next week and then moving just north of Hispaniola while steadily intensifying the system.

By day 10 both models show the trough lifting out as the storm become a hurricane and moves through the Bahamas. The 6z GFS eventually moves the storm across the Florida Keys and into the Gulf as a powerful hurricane taking aim on the central Gulf Coast. The operational ECMWF model stops at day 10, but individual ensemble members threaten the SE coast and some Florida and the Gulf Coast.

We have a long time to watch this system and it seems a bit fruitless to speculate too much until we actually see it separate from the ITCZ and become a discernable feature. However, as I mentioned yesterday, the evolving pattern across the US looks to be one that could threaten the southeast or Gulf Coast so we will have to keep a wary eye on it.


Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15738
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
I'm just curious as to how much damage/costs/fatalities from Katrina were due to the levy failure?

Prior to the levy failures, reports were saying the effects from Katrina were "minimal" in the New Orleans area.

Afternoon All.. From NOLA. Now just south of there. I don't have figures on hand, etc but just about all of the tragic events/costs in human life and money, were due to levee failures. I'm sure someone else will post the particulars.
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Just curious if anyone knows... The Weather Underground models chart doesn't show the GFS track currently. If you look at the model, it has Invest 93 curving up to Lousiana. I was wondering why they aren't showing the track on the model chart?

Is the GFS run discounted?
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
I thought we were all instructed to stop comparing hurricanes?


We were? OK...my bad. I will keep my "Lessons learned from Bonnie" post to myself then!
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432. JLPR2
Quoting WxLogic:


Pretty windy out there... where you got those readings?


Here Link

Winds down to 16mph, gusts 32mph.
Pressure 1008.7mb

*Up to 26mph again.
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Quoting JLPR2:
Winds in Carolina , PR (Northeast Puerto Rico)

28mph with guts to 31mph from the ENE.
Pressure 1009mb

86F
100F heat index


Someone better quit eating the Habichuelas...
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Quoting JLPR2:
Winds in Carolina , PR (Northeast Puerto Rico)

28mph with guts to 31mph from the ENE.
Pressure 1009mb

86F
100F heat index


Pretty windy out there... where you got those readings?
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
it doesn't make them less important , too many people believe because the model says this it will happen and not on thier own analysis oh it's gonna develop and pound florida,or louisiana , give me a break!


I take that as a good answer. I do follow the models I do look into them, but as for me to think that what they predict is written in stone, well that would be just plain foolish. Just as foolish as to take what it is said in this site as the only way to make preparednes decisions. There is two official entities that need to be seriously considered when getting this sort of advise. 1. NHC 2. Your local emergency management system. But it is good to know that there are pretty accurate tools for us aficionados to use even if it is for our own benefit.
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It sure seems that the Atlantic is doing its best to spin up a storm...
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South Fla Ms.has no levees we lost hundreds and still quite a few nver accounted for.Once again Ms. had no levees were you here after Katrina far I was in south fla after Andrew.
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425. JLPR2
Winds in Carolina , PR (Northeast Puerto Rico)

28mph with guts to 31mph from the ENE.
Pressure 1009mb

86F
100F heat index
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
Nothing to compare.... by all accounts, Andrew was the worst hurricane to hit the US....even a caveman could see that....


I am sorry, but I disagree. I disagree because I lived in Miami in 1992, north of Andrew's path of destruction. And, I currently live in Mandeville, and did in 2005, North and West of most of Katrina's destruction.

Here is the difference. I had to drive almost an hour to encounter Andrew's path, and I was pretty close in Miami Beach. I could drive for three hours straight to the east and just clear Katrina's path of destruction. I could drive South into New Orleans and points further down for 2 hours and still be in the middle of Katrina's destruction. Her path was wide. Andrew's was incredible, it looked like ground zero after an atomic bomb, but it was a narrow swath in comparison.

Further, I was back in my condo two days after Andrew came through, hell I went to Ormond Beach that weekend and didn't even know it was coming. I could not get back into my house in St. Tammany for two weeks, and we were not even hit all that hard in Mandeville. I needed a new roof and had some damage to my screen porch. I had a house full of refugees for months, the destruction from Katrina was unreal. I also had to drive through that every Monday and Friday for 6 months as I had to go to Montgomery to work on a case.
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Andrew was extremely intense yet small. As stated,it didn't affect that large of an area. But the damage in the eye wall path was extreme.
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Agree canehunter the 1900 galveston storm from what I sawon the history channel was a sad deal.All those little kids lost in that orphanage.
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any way check back later. gotta go carry materials for my men.
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I'm just curious as to how much damage/costs/fatalities from Katrina were due to the levy failure?

Prior to the levy failures, reports were saying the effects from Katrina were "minimal" in the New Orleans area.

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


NOGAPS never really liked it.


From the get go.
Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Quoting SAINTHURRIFAN:
Yea pat aug17 and aug 29 are sad days.Just to put it in perspective ,Faih,hope,and Chaity.Still no name.Well I went to Homestead airforce base after Andrew and where Andrew hit it leveled.but compared to Katrina"s swath of damage it was no comparison.After katrina a sherrifs deputy from Escambia county came by our house to see if we needed anything.And he told us after what he saw,how fortunate this group felt hey had gotten Ivan compared to what they saw in Ms.Had a group from presslords way down to help out.Said they never imagine they would see anything this much worse than hugo.And to aussie i was talking about Fredrick not elvis lol.And pat that toe corn is a troll do not let him get to you.As far as cloudtop i used to find his post humourous now he is in the same class as jason and jFv.And for us on the Ms. coast we thought nothing could be worse than Camille.So here we are always prepared.



PPL, not to get in the middle of your conversation, but to me a single life lost can make any storm the worst storm ever. Whether it is the costliest or deadlest well 1 person dead qualify for me to consider it a terrible event. Especialy when we talk about children. But the points you raise are important statistically speaking.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
JFV just wet himself.



Which wave results in that DOOM??
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


NOGAPS never really liked it.


Afterall, it is NOt Good At Predicting Stuff.
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Quoting CaneHunter031472:


Ok, and that make them less important because???
it doesn't make them less important , too many people believe because the model says this it will happen and not on thier own analysis oh it's gonna develop and pound florida,or louisiana , give me a break!
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Quoting WxLogic:
12Z NGP @180HRS keeps P17L as an open wave heading towards SFL.



NOGAPS never really liked it.
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Quoting Patrap:
CorneliaMarie is a perma banned member,,NRAamy to be exact.

So take it for what it's worth.

A storm stirrer.

Ciao for now.

Thanks for that video, Pat.
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HWRF maybe over doing it, but winds are picking up.

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Quoting flsky:
String of pearls....


Oh no!!! Three more Solar flares about to hit the Caribean??? And ppl still deny global warming?? Now we know the reason!!
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12Z NGP @180HRS keeps P17L as an open wave heading towards SFL.

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 4977
Quoting jpsb:


Really?

Galveston Tx, Sept. 8, 1900 over 6,000 dead.

+1,000
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Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
models are based what is programmed for them to put out so i dont rely on that it's only there for a possibility of what might happen


Ok, and that make them less important because???
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Quoting Patrap:
A Battery or Crank powered radio is a essential Hurricane Prep item, way more than a TV.

Official Words and info are way better than rumors always.



Tru dat.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
From the NHC's just-released memorandum on hurricane stats. The first ranks the storms by the USCB price deflator for construction:

Uh-oh

...while this second ranks the storms by normalization reflecting inflation, changes in personal wealth, and coastal population:

Uh-oh

There's a lot of other great information there.


The second chart does seem to look like a good update to the 2005 numbers in the WP article I linked earlier.
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403. Jax82
Andrew formed on todays date, 19 years ago. If it took til August 16th to get our first named storm this year, this blog would go crazy, if its not already.
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402. flsky
String of pearls....
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Wow, that GFS run is just like the 06Z run. First time i have seen the GFS consistant back to back runs this year
Member Since: June 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1355
Yea pat aug17 and aug 29 are sad days.Just to put it in perspective ,Faih,hope,and Chaity.Still no name.Well I went to Homestead airforce base after Andrew and where Andrew hit it leveled.but compared to Katrina"s swath of damage it was no comparison.After katrina a sherrifs deputy from Escambia county came by our house to see if we needed anything.And he told us after what he saw,how fortunate this group felt hey had gotten Ivan compared to what they saw in Ms.Had a group from presslords way down to help out.Said they never imagine they would see anything this much worse than hugo.And to aussie i was talking about Fredrick not elvis lol.And pat that toe corn is a troll do not let him get to you.As far as cloudtop i used to find his post humourous now he is in the same class as jason and jFv.And for us on the Ms. coast we thought nothing could be worse than Camille.So here we are always prepared.
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I'm off to bed, to cold, brrrr, 49.8°F falling only got 1.8°F to go to our overnight low of 48°F
Goodnight
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Quoting PurpleClouds:
HWRF developing first cane from 93L.



Much salt with that as yet. HWRF is kind of a right outlier at the moment.
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From the NHC's just-released memorandum on hurricane stats. The first ranks the storms by the USCB price deflator for construction:

Uh-oh

...while this second ranks the storms by normalization reflecting inflation, changes in personal wealth, and coastal population:

Uh-oh

There's a lot of other great information there.
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Very solid storm way out at 384 hours:



Now, is that also a TC showing up in the far SW corner of the Caribbean?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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