Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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12z ECMWF has started.
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Quoting aussiecold:
The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance.

So this will be the path for 93L and will hit the US coast of TX-LA as a hurricane


I think 12Z has shifted quite a bit south.
Member Since: August 22, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 652
Quoting msgambler:
Agree totally Tigger, One word-------PREPARE!!!!


i start buying my supplies May 1st...pick up a little every week and put em in my rubbermaid containers... when/if a storm comes, i am ready, when the season has ended, i donate all unused canned goods to the food bank...i make sure that all food is in single servings as to not waste or have to throw it away... also have a special container for my hubby as he is an electrician and i wouldn't see him much...make sure he is well prepared for his truck as well...even have all my camping equipment in one container if my house blows away...i can at least put it up on my lawn as it would still be here
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Quoting MississippiWx:
I don't agree with 20% for 93L. That seems a little low. The NHC bases these percentage forecasts off models, it seems, and the models don't like its chances.

The models may think that the trade winds will be too fast to allow for much surface development. We'll see, but 93L has a better chance than is being shown in the model runs.



Well I'm sure the NHC knows that with ECMWF lending its support, this system may mean business. The ECMWF has been so conservative all year that any development shown on it should be taken seriously.
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Cloud tops warming a bit, but still 93L has performed fairly well today. Big LIMFAC remains fwd speed.




Once it gets out of that 15-30 flow, maybe it can get better org'd

70W should be a longitude of interest for 93L.
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Agree totally Tigger, One word-------PREPARE!!!!
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Quoting msgambler:
Tigger, the probability is there. Look at NOLA and Pass Christian, MS. One was 40 years and one was 36 years from apart from majors. I bet everyone there also said, encluding myself, they never wanted to go through that again, or again.


i know a storm can hit here again...and so can an earth quake as we are on a MAJOR fault...doesn't mean i want to do it again tho...no matter where you live there will be some type of catastrophy, ie quakes, tornados, blizzards, drought/heat waves, canes, etc...but not gonna wish for one to come see me again by any means!
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I don't agree with 20% for 93L. That seems a little low. The NHC bases these percentage forecasts off models, it seems, and the models don't like its chances.

The models may think that the trade winds will be too fast to allow for much surface development. We'll see, but 93L has a better chance than is being shown in the model runs.

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Don't expect an uptick in the %'s until you see surface pressures falling.
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Quoting scott39:
Hello Levi, How far back is your tidbit?


It got buried pretty fast. Just click on my handle to get to my blog.
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Quoting GoWVU:


Tiger my hometown in WV, is Hurricane.... The Air Force brought me here and this is where I stayed.


would love to see the pics of the Air Base if you have em archived somewhere...I remember planes, hangers, etc all having extensive damage...that was a wild ride that night...
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Tigger, the probability is there. Look at NOLA and Pass Christian, MS. One was 40 years and one was 36 years from apart from majors. I bet everyone there also said, encluding myself, they never wanted to go through that again, or again.
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Quoting Levi32:
12z CMC has our African wave in the northeast Caribean in 144 hours:

Hello Levi, How far back is your tidbit?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6881
Quoting tiggeriffic:


page 9 i think it was...someone said big shift to the left...


On an earliest post, USAFwxguy posted a graphic of 12Z HWRF showing 93L hitting the Yucatan, and I observed that was a major shift to the left from its previous runs.
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Quoting GoWVU:


Tiger my hometown in WV, is Hurricane.... The Air Force brought me here and this is where I stayed.


Navy brought me here...graduated Baileysville HS (no longer there lol) in Wyoming County...family from that little corner where WV, VA and KY meet...off rt 52
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
TWO out, no change, virtually the same TWO too.


Did they cut and paste the 8:00 am TWO?
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480. GoWVU
Quoting tiggeriffic:


the strangest part is that your handle is goWVU, i actually LIVED in WV for a while as well, my Mom was from WV and now im in SC...but i will agree...i NEVER want to see something like Hugo again


Tiger my hometown in WV, is Hurricane.... The Air Force brought me here and this is where I stayed.
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Quoting CorneliaMarie:
I thought we were all instructed to stop comparing hurricanes?

Isn't that just for Katrina, Andrew, Ivan, Camille and T. S. Allison? lol...comparing is part of the fun, sometimes...although I understand why some comparisons may be considered in poor taste...idk...jmo
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Quoting angiest:


Hrm? You have me confused. :)

I seem to recall having seen several runs of HWRF showing 93L moving to the right of consensus. (to the point where it didn't even hit the Yucatan) The posting of the 12Z shows a majaor jump to the left, hitting into the Yucatan, and much closer to consensus.


page 9 i think it was...someone said big shift to the left...
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Thanks Miami and southdadefish for the links.
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Quoting presslord:


How did I not know this?!?!?!!?


And now you know!

(And knowing is half the battle!)
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Quoting GoWVU:


Same here I was a 19 year old kid when that happened, I hope to NEVER go through something like that again. It was my first and hope only Hurricane, If there are folks who want to see one. Be careful what you wish for


the strangest part is that your handle is goWVU, i actually LIVED in WV for a while as well, my Mom was from WV and now im in SC...but i will agree...i NEVER want to see something like Hugo again
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A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM HISPANIOLA EASTWARD ACROSS
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT NEAR 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


hey angiest...how goes it...i just caught this...you said it is trending to the right (im assuming you mean 93L)...where did the post come from saying YP? that would be a major jump to the left...i trust what you are saying as i don't know where the "LEFT" came from...just a question...i get so confused with conflicting posts some days


Hrm? You have me confused. :)

I seem to recall having seen several runs of HWRF showing 93L moving to the right of consensus. (to the point where it didn't even hit the Yucatan) The posting of the 12Z shows a majaor jump to the left, hitting into the Yucatan, and much closer to consensus.
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472. JLPR2
That area in the ITCZ is pretty to look at.
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TWO out, no change, virtually the same TWO too.
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Quoting presslord:


How did I not know this?!?!?!!?
need to take a refresher course in Stalker 101....LOL
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The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance.

So this will be the path for 93L and will hit the US coast of TX-LA as a hurricane
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Quoting angiest:


Hasn't it been trending more to the right the last few runs? I mean, more than just 6Z?


hey angiest...how goes it...i just caught this...you said it is trending to the right (im assuming you mean 93L)...where did the post come from saying YP? that would be a major jump to the left...i trust what you are saying as i don't know where the "LEFT" came from...just a question...i get so confused with conflicting posts some days
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Quoting angiest:



Pssst! She has her own blog!


How did I not know this?!?!?!!?
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466. GoWVU
Quoting tiggeriffic:
EVERY hurricane to hit land was and will be in the future, catestrophic for someone...I was in Charleston for Hugo, my sister in law was in awendaw...they got the 20ft storm surge...we were hit by the eye and saved...had the eye hit to our south, Charleston would have been annilated by hugo just like Florida from Andrew...we were lucky in that respect, but, the damage was still very real...i had to move from extreme damage to my apartment building...out of 9 buildings, 6 were not livable...multiply that by 8 apartments per building and you have 48 families in a very small area that were displaced. it was weeks in some areas without power, we were under dusk to dawn curfew, yada yada yada...on the coast, we watch every single invest very carefully...i was one of the lucky ones, i found a place to live even tho the damage was extensive...what i saw during that storm, i hope i never see again...it was the scariest night of my life next to losing my daughter...


Same here I was a 19 year old kid when that happened, I hope to NEVER go through something like that again. It was my first and hope only Hurricane, If there are folks who want to see one. Be careful what you wish for
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Quoting angiest:


Hasn't it been trending more to the right the last few runs? I mean, more than just 6Z?


I'd have to look. But I trust your memory.
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Quoting Levi32:
12z CMC has our African wave in the northeast Caribean in 144 hours:



Agreement is increasing... in the same general area.

12Z GFS 144HR:

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 5012
Quoting presslord:
OK....I'm not at all happy about this....but.....I kinda miss the Georgia Tech chick........please don't tell her...



Pssst! She has her own blog!
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


yes, but the 6z was a jump right...

no telling right now. will depend on how much intensity it gains, and when (if).


Hasn't it been trending more to the right the last few runs? I mean, more than just 6Z?
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Quoting presslord:
OK....I'm not at all happy about this....but.....I kinda miss the Georgia Tech chick........please don't tell her...


HA HA...i wont tell her but i will tell Father Hanley snicke snicker snort snort.... :P
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Quoting tiggeriffic:
EVERY hurricane to hit land was and will be in the future, catestrophic for someone...I was in Charleston for Hugo, my sister in law was in awendaw...they got the 20ft storm surge...we were hit by the eye and saved...had the eye hit to our south, Charleston would have been annilated by hugo just like Florida from Andrew...we were lucky in that respect, but, the damage was still very real...i had to move from extreme damage to my apartment building...out of 9 buildings, 6 were not livable...multiply that by 8 apartments per building and you have 48 families in a very small area that were displaced. it was weeks in some areas without power, we were under dusk to dawn curfew, yada yada yada...on the coast, we watch every single invest very carefully...i was one of the lucky ones, i found a place to live even tho the damage was extensive...what i saw during that storm, i hope i never see again...it was the scariest night of my life next to losing my daughter...


well said
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I think the best course of action with 93L is watch and wait. Still a long ways out. P17L is definitely one to watch for the entire GOM Coastline in my opinion. Things are starting to get real interesting out in the Eastern Atlantic. BTW...we use milk jugs at my house...but only for flushing, not for drinking.
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Quoting angiest:


That's quite a jump to the left.


yes, but the 6z was a jump right...

no telling right now. will depend on how much intensity it gains, and when (if).
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OK....I'm not at all happy about this....but.....I kinda miss the Georgia Tech chick........please don't tell her...
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30% seems like a decent bet.

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455. JLPR2
Quoting TallyNole:


Ah, good point. That would explain it! Thanks JLPR2.



Sure, glad to help out.


Not much going on, but it sure is pulling on the ITCZ.
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12z CMC has our African wave in the northeast Caribean in 144 hours:

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So funny, even in the zeal to "get back to the tropics" the discussion can't progress beyond the offending topic. Every post must have the last word. Very interesting.
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anyone else see the little area spinning up along the stat front stalled inthe eastern gom its about 150 miles west of sarasota,interesting....
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
12Z HWRF takes 93L into Yucutan



That's quite a jump to the left.
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12z CMC

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 15999
381. CitikatzSouthFL 12:51 PM EDT on August 16, 2011 +1



You know, all this is is just a p-----g contest. A MAJOR storm is devastating. But any storm is devastating and miserable to those who are affected. Try it, Cornelia Marie...HOT, no electricity, no running water (well and pump need electric), BUGS, BUGS, BUGS, biting bugs, no clean laundry. No hot food unless you use the grill. If you are lucky and have a generator, you might be able to use fan, have some light at night, cook with the microwave. It is just miserable. Enough of this trivia and let's get back to following whatever might be brewing in the tropics.
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Quoting zoomiami:
Did you know? Three year olds are into mine is bigger or hurts more, etc. I don't think we've gone that young yet.

I went through the worst of Andrew, lived the aftermath for months and months, and it was heart rending.

Katrina was awful in ways that can't be described, that anyone with an ounce of empathy had to feel. To drown in your own home, how horrible.

So stop with the stupidity --- devastating hurricanes are just that, devastating, and trying to minimize what someone else went through is the sign of a little mind.


{{APPLAUSE}}...i put something similar a few posts down from yours...great minds think alike zoo...
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Quoting Levi32:
93L is decent-looking for being embedded in a fast trade wind flow. Pressures are still rather high with it though. This has a good chance to become a tropical storm in the western Caribbean.



Agree. Maybe sooner. I'm seeing LLC starting to form. winds on the western side are heading south. winds on back side (east side) are heading north. Broad center is around 68/15.5
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NHC may decide to bump to 30% for 93L, but wouldn't expect much more than that.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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