Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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3196. beell
GOM RGB Loop



A low to mid-level inverted trough located in the NE Gulf ridge weakeness. A curiosity


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


It's a probability map and we all know that things sometimes happen even though it is not probable that they will LOL


Very Very True...

And it's also useful to point out the flip side of that in light of the S. FL landfall models..

Likelihood or probability still leaves the door open for something -not- happening... however probable... as well.
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Quoting ncstorm:
Henry Margusity from accuweather is calling for a east coast rider..basically said the GOM would not see the African wave..

Link


And I think he is right. Latest run already places it significantly right of the previous run, but still intense and inside the GOMEX. So I am sure subsequent runs will place it more and more to the right. Hopefully another fish storm and not even a EC rider.
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Quoting Jedkins01:
Currently about to get slammed with a very slow moving but very heavy storm, nasty looking shelf cloud moving in, lots of lightning, and some greenish tint near the heavy core. Probably no hail actually making it to the ground, its too tropical for that. The PWAT is around 2.3 and instability is high, classic August storm is rolling in off the Gulf.
The thunder just woke me up, very loud, and deafening, sounds like bombs going off outside!!More like an atomic bomb, or something from the movie 'War of the Worlds'. That last one, I'm pretty much officially deaf!
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3191. dearmas
Quoting mcluvincane:
ECMWF 00z Run at 240hrs



GFS 00z Run at 240hrs



Is this 93??
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Quoting scott39:
I dont understand that map sometimes. It will show no tropical formation...where one is in the process of developing. Then at other times it will show possible formation..where there is nothing going on.


It's a probability map and we all know that things sometimes happen even though it is not probable that they will LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Quoting Waltanater:
So the first 7 storms of the season were only Tropical Storms! Has this ever happened before? Isn't this some type of record? Anyway, there might be a long and intense ending to this season. It just may go well into December.


Never has happened before, not that it means much. Last year the 2nd hurricane of the season formed next week - a season that had 12 hurricanes.
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Quoting scott39:
Will the ingredients be just right for rapid developement after 75W? Ive read more than once, it is the hot spot in Caribbean.. or is that further N in the NW Caribbean


The NW Caribbean has historically been an area where tropical cyclones undergo rapid intensification. Right now, we do not even have a TD and 93L is not presently heading in that direction. Its current track will take it close to the coast of Honduras which could interfere with any development that may commence today.

This is not a scenario where one would expect explosive development.

That's all from me for this morning. Have to go now so everyone have a nice day

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
3186. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


Notice the Caribbean at this time

I dont understand that map sometimes. It will show no tropical formation...where one is in the process of developing. Then at other times it will show possible formation..where there is nothing going on.
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Mother Nature will act accordingly in response to the computer models.


I guess we're about to see whether that proves to be true. 300 hours from now.
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So the first 7 storms of the season were only Tropical Storms! Has this ever happened before? Isn't this some type of record? Anyway, there might be a long and intense ending to this season. It just may go well into December.
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Quoting Amature:

HUMMMM, another Amature question: If 93L "lives" Is there any chance it will "shoot the gap" & come into the gulf without hitting much land?? Sort of looks like it could on a map or 2, but of course I dont know a thing.


Nah, I just washed the boat so it'll come straight for Belize.
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3182. ncstorm
Henry Margusity from accuweather is calling for a east coast rider..basically said the GOM would not see the African wave..

Link
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correct me if I am wrong but I think this is the storm most of the global models predict will become a strong tropical storm or hurricane and potentially threaten Florida due to the westward expansion and strength of the High
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3180. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


Well, I don't agree that all the right ingredients are there just yet. The Caribbean air mass has been quite stable, which does not encourage TC activity, and the trades have been very brisk as we have seen with 93L trucking along close to 20 mph.

From now through the end of September we look for development to the East of the islands and not inside the Caribbean itself. Once a weak system without a closed low enters the Caribbean the odds of development fall below 50% until after 75W and this, combined with the fast forward speed would suggest that 93L is less, rather than more likely to develop quickly.
Will the ingredients be just right for rapid developement after 75W? Ive read more than once, it is the hot spot in Caribbean.. or is that further N in the NW Caribbean
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
There is consistency run after run. This need to be observed and addressed.

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3177. ackee
93L LOOKS like a Donut
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Quoting scott39:
So why are the models not ramping up 93L quickly, when all the right ingredients seem to be there?


Notice the Caribbean at this time

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
3175. WxLogic
Quoting CybrTeddy:
T's are up for 93L
17/1145 UTC 15.0N 72.7W T1.5/1.5 93L


Which coincides with 93L's increased organization.
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HUMMMM, another Amature question: If 93L "lives" Is there any chance it will "shoot the gap" & come into the gulf without hitting much land?? Sort of looks like it could on a map or 2, but of course I dont know a thing.
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3173. scott39
Quoting Neapolitan:
In the EPAC, Greg has formed:

EP, 07, 2011081712, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1034W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 40, 1008, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GREG, M,
Its my brother Gregs birthday today too. I will love to irritate him with the fact that a new TC was born on the same day as him. He just "LOVES" it when I try to have a conversation about tropical weather with him!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
T's are up for 93L
17/1145 UTC 15.0N 72.7W T1.5/1.5 93L
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Currently about to get slammed with a very slow moving but very heavy storm, nasty looking shelf cloud moving in, lots of lightning, and some greenish tint near the heavy core. Probably no hail actually making it to the ground, its too tropical for that. The PWAT is around 2.3 and instability is high, classic August storm is rolling in off the Gulf.
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Woa the weirdest thing happened on my 3160 post. Somehow someone changed the image I posted to an earlier one. I posted 300 hours away and it suddenly changed to an earlier time. Is this site being hacked? Are we being attacked by a Megatroll.
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Quoting scott39:
So why are the models not ramping up 93L quickly, when all the right ingredients seem to be there?


Well, I don't agree that all the right ingredients are there just yet. The Caribbean air mass has been quite stable, which does not encourage TC activity, and the trades have been very brisk as we have seen with 93L trucking along close to 20 mph.

From now through the end of September we look for development to the East of the islands and not inside the Caribbean itself. Once a weak system without a closed low enters the Caribbean the odds of development fall below 50% until after 75W and this, combined with the fast forward speed would suggest that 93L is less, rather than more likely to develop quickly.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
Even the UKMET spins up a cyclone, that's when you know you have good model consensus.
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3167. WxLogic
Quoting ackee:
When will recon check out 93L


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 17/1545Z
D. 15.0N 74.50W
E. 17/1615Z TO 17/2015Z --CORRECTED
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 18/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: INVEST FOR SUSPECT AREA SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA FOR 16/1800Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 16/1300Z.

Should be departing @11:45 EST.
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3166. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2011 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
93L.INVEST
07L.GERT DEACTIVATE

East Pacific
07E.GREG INIT
06E.FERNANDA

Central Pacific

West Pacific

Indian Ocean

Southern Hemisphere
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3165. ackee
When will recon check out 93L
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3164. Grothar
Quoting KY50:
The Navy Monterey Marine Office has posted "96L' on their website but no good pictures or location.

Has anyone seen anything yet today that confirms a new invest?


I think that has been on there for a few days. We will be looking for 97L
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3163. WxLogic
Quoting KY50:
The Navy Monterey Marine Office has posted "96L' on their website but no good pictures or location.

Has anyone seen anything yet today that confirms a new invest?


96L was deactivated 2 days ago:

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al962011.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201108152106
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 96, 2011, DB, O, 2011081418, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL962011
AL, 96, 2011081418, , BEST, 0, 367N, 638W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081500, , BEST, 0, 382N, 636W, 25, 1009, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081506, , BEST, 0, 397N, 631W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 96, 2011081512, , BEST, 0, 410N, 619W, 25, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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3162. scott39
Quoting kmanislander:


It should as the MJO is heading into the Caribbean now and propagating to the East.
So why are the models not ramping up 93L quickly, when all the right ingredients seem to be there?
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6706
There is consistency run after run. This need to be observed and addressed.

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Quoting Matt74:
Sounds like a surface circulation might be trying to form. What do you think? Thanks for answering my question.


It looks like a surface low could be forming based upon the improved satellite presentation but the buoy data does not necessarily indicate that. The winds shown there now are typical of an approaching Easterly wave and the pressure is not particularly low.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
3158. WxLogic
If 93L is able to get those TSTMs to build around the center and keep them there... then it'll be a go and 93L should be able to shield itself from this or at least most of it:

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3157. Patrap
Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125572
Quoting scott39:
Is the MJO going to aid in the AOI off of Africa, at the time when the models are developing it?


It should as the MJO is heading into the Caribbean now and propagating to the East.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671
3155. Matt74
Quoting kmanislander:


15N and 73 W approximately. There is a buoy, 42058, moored at 15N and 75 W and the center of 93L should pass almost right over it later today. A good buoy to monitor for wind and pressure fall, if any. Right now the last report from it had a pressure of 1010 mbs and 21 kots sustained out of the ENE
Sounds like a surface circulation might be trying to form. What do you think? Thanks for answering my question.
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3154. KY50
The Navy Monterey Marine Office has posted "96L' on their website but no good pictures or location.

Has anyone seen anything yet today that confirms a new invest?
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Quoting barotropic:


I agree, its not shown on the chart....but u must see it on the WVL, I mean its there...its clearly spinning. centered at 13N 79W...I am not trying to be smart here...just asking if its not an uLL thats spinning, what is it?


Oddly post 3140 shows a shift in nearly all of the dynamic models to the wSW.....which seems to be in response to the spin I keep mentioning I am seeing in the WVL. It seems that 93 L will move on the topside of it and be pulled southward.......is that possibly right?
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3152. angiest
Quoting SuperYooper:
First earthquake since 7/31 that is higher than a magnitude 6.



Still haven't seen one that anyone would call "significant". Bit of a lull.


Another aftershock of the major one earlier this year.
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In the EPAC, Greg has formed:

EP, 07, 2011081712, , BEST, 0, 164N, 1034W, 45, 1000, TS, 34, NEQ, 50, 0, 0, 40, 1008, 150, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GREG, M,
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HEY TO THE ONE WHO SAID TO BE MORE CREATIVE ON MY HANDLE. AUDREY WAS THE STORM MY FATHER LOST HIS FATHER BROTHE GRANDPARENTS AND THREE AUNTS. HE WAS NINE AND FLOATED ON A ROOF TOP BEFORE BEING RESCUED HIS STORY IS IN A BOOK CALLED HURRICANE AUDREY 1957. HURRICANE LILLY WAS ON A DEAD AIM RIGHT FOR MY HOME IN 2002 I COULD NOT EVAC .MY WIFE WAS VERY WITH CHILD OH.. AND YES AS LILLY APPROCHED OUR COAST OUR CHILD DISCOVERD AMERICA . WE NAMED HIM CAMERON AFTER THE TOWN MY FATHER LOST HIS FAMILY IN HURRICANE AUDREY AND LAST BUT NOT LEAST HURR RITA DEVASTATED OUR HOME IN LA IN 2005 , AND I WAS INJURED CLEANING UP AFTERWARD AND HAD MY NECK BROKEN AND LOST A LOT OF MY VISION....SO HOWS THIS 44 YEAR OLD FOR CREATIVITY... SO IF YOU DONT MIND KEEP YOUR LAME OPINIONS TO YOUR SELF ABOUT PEOPLE PERSONALLY AND TALK ABOUT THE TROPICS....THINGS ARE GOING ON YOU KNOW
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Quoting belizeit:
Do you have a link to this buoy?


Yes, here
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15671

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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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