Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
168 hours



whats that off the NC coast?
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Atlantic and East Pacific now tied

invest_RENUMBER_ep992011_ep072011.ren
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Quoting Grothar:
How many days is 240 hours?



Hmmm, (divide by Pi over the summer equinox....multiply by the squareroot of the Mayan calendar)...I'll be right with you on that Gro..
:^(
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting Levi32:


Certainly. I posted yesterday that the big message to take from the GFS is that, regardless of where it is, it's developing a monster consistently, illustrating the need to be watchful, as we are now in the mature part of the season that can bring the major storms. The model support for this particular wave is impressive, so it may be the first big one.
I hereby second the above notions.

Given the conditions and model support, I'd be surprised if someone isn't staring down a hurricane 12 days from now. I'm almost to point of accepting that it probably will not miss all major landmasses, given the consistency in steering parameters, as well.

-or-

GFS is on the precipice of making us look like fools.
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168 hours

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The system on the ECMWF appears not to develop due to interaction with Hispaniola, this is more of a track flip than a development flip.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24251
Quoting ringeaux:


Date has March 14....Not exactly peak hurricane season


just noticed that but still this is what listed on their website..

Link
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93L continues to organize nicely this afternoon. The Southern side of the system is the most notable difference.

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Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9825
Quoting Landfall2004:



Divide by 24 hrs. in a day. Score one for the math (not science/weather) teacher! LOL

And I might say, it is NOT looking good for my part of the FL E Coast!!!!!!


I just can't believe anyone really answered that. :)
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Pretty much nothing left by 156.

If the ECMWF continues to not show development, I'm more inclined to believe it.

I don't think I can mentally handle the GFS doing another major flop like it did with 93L.
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Quoting ncstorm:
all is quiet in the atlantic..I have never seen this map without anything?



Date has March 14....Not exactly peak hurricane season
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Quoting Jedkins01:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PR...!



Thanks for info....
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9825
Quoting Grothar:
How many days is 240 hours?



Is this a joke? Have not seen this one. Obviously not reliable I'm assuming that far out.
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PRC025-035-057-063-069-077-085-103-109-123-129-15 1-161845-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SV.W.0009.110816T1823Z-110816T1845Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
223 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CAGUAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAGUAS...
CAYEY MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CAYEY...
GUAYAMA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
GURABO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF GURABO...
HUMACAO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...PUNTA SANTIAGO...HUMACAO...
JUNCOS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF JUNCOS...
LAS PIEDRAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LAS PIEDRAS...
NAGUABO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF NAGUABO...
PATILLAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
SALINAS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
SAN LORENZO MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF SAN LORENZO...
YABUCOA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...

* UNTIL 245 PM AST

* AT 217 PM AST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM ANTON RUIZ TO 7 MILES EAST OF CAYEY TO 6 MILES
SOUTH OF CAYEY...MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LA
FERMINA...CELADA AND BAIROA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IN A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

&&

LAT...LON 1825 6588 1829 6578 1822 6566 1817 6569
1818 6572 1815 6573 1815 6578 1812 6577
1815 6578 1809 6599 1798 6621 1813 6622
1815 6610 1821 6611 1823 6608 1831 6606
1831 6597
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 099DEG 28KT 1818 6583 1810 6608
1803 6622

$$

ROSA




Strong squalls in Puerto Rico!
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18z Best Track for 93L.

AL, 93, 2011081618, , BEST, 0, 141N, 674W, 25, 1011, DB
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Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I remember that day...I was in high school I think...was that 92?
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Quoting presslord:
someone (Levi...Grothar...anyone...) correct me if I'm wrong...Doesn't the GFS seem to be consistent in developing something long range....disregarding track, location, etc....but ...Isn't that sorta significant?


Yes. For all of the reliable models to be consistent on development, it is significant.
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120

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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I wouldn't criticize any model for being inconsistent with a feature over 144 hours out.....


True.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24251
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Typical ECMWF with its poor consistency. Has had a hurricane for two runs, then drops it. 00z ECMWF will have a hurricane again, then drop it again.
I wouldn't criticize any model for being inconsistent with a feature over 144 hours out.....
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For the life of me,I can,t remember ever seeing such an intense eyewall in any other hurricane besides Andrew. Would it not be like having a 40 mile wide F-2/F-3 Tornado?
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Quoting Levi32:


I see a big spin over western Africa.
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93L over the last three hours:

1515Z:


1815Z:


Convection continues to be focused on the northern edges, but it does appear that cloud coverage is increasing, particularly on the southern side.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Still nothing by 144 hours with the 12z ECMWF.


Typical ECMWF with its poor consistency. Has had a hurricane for two runs, then drops it. 00z ECMWF will have a hurricane again, then drop it again.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24251
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
From a historical point I have never seen a tropical system in the vicinity of 93L just pull straight west and its almost impossible with the other conditions in play. I have a hard time believing that we will have a CONUS storm, although I dont completely rule that out. I am thinking more of a Northern Mexico / extreme southern Texas course for 93L.

Lets hope it brings a foot of rain.


Extreme south Texas is not CONUS? :)

I agree that seems a more likely scenario at this time, but pushing west doesn't seem out of the question.
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Quoting ncstorm:
all is quiet in the atlantic..I have never seen this map without anything?



The map is from March 14th.
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Quoting ncstorm:
all is quiet in the atlantic..I have never seen this map without anything?



Looks like it's just not correct.
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Quoting ncstorm:
all is quiet in the atlantic..I have never seen this map without anything?

?
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Still nothing by 144 hours with the 12z ECMWF.
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all is quiet in the atlantic..I have never seen this map without anything?

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Surface convergence is still impressive. 93L should be making its way down to the surface.

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Quoting MississippiWx:
New 850mb vort map reveals a rather strong vorticity with 93L. It has also jumped closer to the convection.



Expectedly. That is also evident on visible loops.
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New 850mb vort map reveals a rather strong vorticity with 93L. It has also jumped closer to the convection.

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Quoting Grothar:
How many days is 240 hours?




Divide by 24 hrs. in a day. Score one for the math (not science/weather) teacher! LOL

And I might say, it is NOT looking good for my part of the FL E Coast!!!!!!
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Really? Seems a little early to be attaching much significance to this. That's like 1011 mb


One reading isn't significant, but it could be the start of something. I doubt it will be much as I think it won't start to develop until tomorrow once it begins to slow down. 12Z Euro shows the vorticity starting to increase in 24 hours.
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Quoting presslord:
someone (Levi...Grothar...anyone...) correct me if I'm wrong...Doesn't the GFS seem to be consistent in developing something long range....disregarding track, location, etc....but ...Isn't that sorta significant?


IIRC, three of the last four runs of GFS have shown a large storm in the Gulf, with the other sending it your way. That something significant will happen seems more likely (but as always, lots of things can change). The tracks shown by GFS do not preclude a storm recurving or going up the east coast. In at least three runs the storm has tracked into the Bahamas before being pushed west again.

Dare I say it, similar type of setup, but not as extreme, as Ike. (That is, weakness in the ridge filling in, and a storm that looks poised for a run up the east coast or out to sea getting pushed further west instead.)
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Pretty disorganized at 132.

I don't think it's going to happen this run...
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Really? Seems a little early to be attaching much significance to this. That's like 1011 mb




1011mb isn't terribly high for a developing system. In fact, that's fairly normal. I wasn't attaching much significance at all. Just stating that if pressures were to begin dropping because of a developing surface feature, that is the area that would have the pressure falls. Satellite gives the impression that the pressure should keep falling, but we'll see.
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Quoting HarryMc:


European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)


Thanks
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Hey IKE, If your lurkin buddy... I hope you got your TC deflector shields shined and ready for battle!
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Really? Seems a little early to be attaching much significance to this. That's like 1011 mb




I agree. There is no evidence of any unusual drop at all. I looked and wasn't going to comment, but I agree.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
120, 93L is ''Harvey'', 9XL undergoing cyclogenesis.


Yesterdays run btw.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24251
From a historical point I have never seen a tropical system in the vicinity of 93L just pull straight west and its almost impossible with the other conditions in play. I have a hard time believing that we will have a CONUS storm, although I dont completely rule that out. I am thinking more of a Northern Mexico / extreme southern Texas course for 93L.

Lets hope it brings a foot of rain.
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12Z ECMWF appears further south and weaker than the previous runs.

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Correlates exactly with the area that looks to be developing a surface reflection...was waiting on that to happen.


Really? Seems a little early to be attaching much significance to this. That's like 1011 mb


Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting presslord:
someone (Levi...Grothar...anyone...) correct me if I'm wrong...Doesn't the GFS seem to be consistent in developing something long range....disregarding track, location, etc....but ...Isn't that sorta significant?


Yep, and the fact the ECMWF is also consistent in it too.. pretty significant.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24251
Quoting Levi32:


They won't be out for another ~2 hours, but I will probably post them when they do.


okay thanks!
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Quoting presslord:
someone (Levi...Grothar...anyone...) correct me if I'm wrong...Doesn't the GFS seem to be consistent in developing something....disregarding track, location, etc....but ...Isn't that sorta significant?


Certainly. I posted yesterday that the big message to take from the GFS is that, regardless of where it is, it's developing a monster consistently, illustrating the need to be watchful, as we are now in the mature part of the season that can bring the major storms. The model support for this particular wave is impressive, so it may be the first big one.
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Quoting ncstorm:


hey Levi,

can you post the ensemble members after the 12Z run has completed..just to see the possibilities..


They won't be out for another ~2 hours, but I will probably post them when they do.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
NHC doesn't seemed impressed with 93L, I was expecting at least 30%
They will be impressed in about 24/36 hours.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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