Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Preview of the next blog update....more global warming, a third passage in the ice, record drought in TX, and a no threat and weak tropical system in the Bahamas....

Geez I can see why so many storm enthusiast are "jonesing" for a big storm.

Maybe we can pretend and make one up?
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A season not fulflling it's potential. The "Y" factor still in affect ='s a blown yearly forecast. Yay!! Well except for the # of named thunderstorms!!
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
So Levi, after the Euro drop at 12z,is back to square one in terms of future development of the African Wave?


Well no, but confidence in significant development could be greatly boosted or dampened by the ECMWF, as its conservative posture so far this season means that if it shows consistent development, it is likely to be right.

By the very fact that it is mid-August and our wave has a well-defined circulation already, it is already a candidate for development farther west, regardless of the model solutions.
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So Levi, after the Euro drop at 12z,is back to square one in terms of future development of the African Wave?
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12z NAEFS ensembles show possible tracks for our African wave ranging from the Gulf of Mexico, to an east coast landfall, to a recurve out to sea east of land. The notable thing is that the NAEFS supports development of some kind, regardless of track.

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639. JLPR2
I'm seeing several reports of SE, SSE and south winds in NE PR. If those are accurate then 93L is trying to spin up.
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Quoting naplesdreamer28:


Is this a joke? Have not seen this one. Obviously not reliable I'm assuming that far out.


LOL well obviously,not everyone has taken Math 89
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Quoting NASA101:


Ok..makes sense but the 12Z Operational run is far removed from its ensembles... such a big disagreement seems that modeling may not be correct...!?


Well obviously some of those solutions are incorrect, or perhaps all of them are. The ensembles offer two solutions and the operational offers a 3rd. The GFS ensembles also like to flop around a lot, as the operational does, so don't expect a ton of consistency with it.
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Quoting Levi32:


Correct.


thanks Levi!!..looks like the long range 0z CMC also shows the extratropical storm off the east coast as well..

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Quoting Levi32:


Ensemble members are runs of the GFS based on perturbations of initial conditions. Ideally, the operational run will show a tropical cyclone track down the middle of the ensemble envelope, but that is often not true. Sometimes the operational is an "outlier" compared to its ensembles.


Ok..makes sense but the 12Z Operational run is far removed from its ensembles... such a big disagreement seems that modeling may not be correct...!?
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Day 10 has the wave in the northwest Bahamas with no significant development. The ECMWF has already done this once where it showed a hurricane and then nothing on the next run. We'll have to see which direction the Euro finally commits to, as that may provide a strong hint as to how much development to expect with this wave.

Also a true Cape Verde hurricane developing at the end of the run.

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That's quite a large trough over the East by next Tuesday, enough to bring another early touch of fall (and look at our system creeping in on the bottom right):

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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Hmmm, (divide by Pi over the summer equinox....multiply by the squareroot of the Mayan calendar)...I'll be right with you on that Gro..
:^(



I like when you talk technical. Just be "succinct"
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Look at the western Caribbean.
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Quoting wayfaringstranger:
I remember that day...I was in high school I think...was that 92?
indeed it was,I left Naples Florida in November 91 to return to California.
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93L 18Z Update:

AL, 93, 2011081618, , BEST, 0, 141N, 674W, 25, 1011, DB,

Pressure went up 1mb...
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Quoting NASA101:


Then why does the 12Z GFS run has this is in the eastern Gulf then? Thought Ensemble means probabilities of various locations that the storm can end up eventually.... makes no sense then..!?


Ensemble members are runs of the GFS based on perturbations of initial conditions. Ideally, the operational run will show a tropical cyclone track down the middle of the ensemble envelope, but that is often not true. Sometimes the operational is an "outlier" compared to its ensembles.
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Quoting miguel617:
Has TS Gert gone extratropical?

Not according to ATCF's just released 1800Z update:

AL, 07, 2011081618, , BEST, 0, 386N, 559W, 35, 1010, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 0, 0, 1014, 60, 25, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GERT, D,
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Quoting Levi32:
12z GFS ensembles show two main solutions for our African wave. Follow the blobs of blue. One recurves out to sea east of the U.S., and the other moves into the southeastern United States.


Then why does the 12Z GFS run has this is in the eastern Gulf then? Thought Ensemble means probabilities of various locations that the storm can end up eventually.... makes no sense then..!?
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Quoting nofailsafe:


As with tracking any storm with models good consensus comes from multiple different approaches at the same problem and arriving to a similar result. If they remain consistent for the next few days we may have a problem on our hands.

With regards to 93L, the only model that really wants to do anything with it is the HWRF and turns it into something kinda spooky. The latest ASCAT pass of the region doesn't show much at all in terms of cyclonic winds at the surface and I wonder just how much longer 93L will continue to lack a LLC.

In other news, ECMWF has a rather strong, large circulation coming off of West Africa at T=168 (This is not the GOM doomicane from earlier runs), it'll be interesting to see how that manifests itself.



To answer the last part of your statement, the wave looks quite good for now. Some bloggers, as well as I, posted some good images of them this morning and this afternoon.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Seems about right to me. By no means did the ECMWF "drop" the cyclone.


You have mail.
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Quoting ncstorm:


which would mean an extratropical cyclone?


Correct.
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Now that's a true Cape Verde storm at 216:

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Quoting Levi32:


A baroclinic low, associated with the upper trough that you can see over New England in that image.


which would mean an extratropical cyclone?
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For the time being... 12Z ECMWF has come in line with a track being depicted by the GFS/CMC.
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Nuthin'

192


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Quoting nigel20:

The SAL is getting pushed out of the way.


That large area of circulation trapping that dry air off the coast of Georgia looks like it has finally cleared out.
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Quoting ncstorm:


Levi..my last question (until the next question..LOL) but what was that off the NC coast on the 12Z on the ECMWF at 168 hours?


A baroclinic low, associated with the upper trough that you can see over New England in that image.
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Has TS Gert gone extratropical?
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Now you tell me!!

<----(returning abacus to the basement)

Quoting caneswatch:


He's joking. Everyone knows he's joking.


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The SAL is getting pushed out of the way.
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Quoting ncstorm:


just noticed that but still this is what listed on their website..

Link


Probably due to the CIP Test NOAA is running today. The SSD site is one that is listed as not all products updating.
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Quoting Levi32:
12z GFS ensembles show two main solutions for our African wave. Follow the blobs of blue. One recurves out to sea east of the U.S., and the other moves into the southeastern United States.


Levi..my last question (until the next question..LOL) but what was that off the NC coast on the 12Z on the ECMWF at 168 hours?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Seems about right to me. By no means did the ECMWF "drop" the cyclone.


Agree, it's futher south than its 00Z run...and this would make sense, as just like 93L and others so far, these waves are remaining weak over the eastern ATL and hence moving further WEST - bad news for CONUS if they can develop WEST of the Islands at 65W
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Invest 93L
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12z GFS ensembles show two main solutions for our African wave. Follow the blobs of blue. One recurves out to sea east of the U.S., and the other moves into the southeastern United States.
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Quoting Grothar:


Yes. For all of the reliable models to be consistent on development, it is significant.


As with tracking any storm with models good consensus comes from multiple different approaches at the same problem and arriving to a similar result. If they remain consistent for the next few days we may have a problem on our hands.

With regards to 93L, the only model that really wants to do anything with it is the HWRF and turns it into something kinda spooky. The latest ASCAT pass of the region doesn't show much at all in terms of cyclonic winds at the surface and I wonder just how much longer 93L will continue to lack a LLC.

In other news, ECMWF has a rather strong, large circulation coming off of West Africa at T=168 (This is not the GOM doomicane from earlier runs), it'll be interesting to see how that manifests itself.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Hmmm, (divide by Pi over the summer equinox....multiply by the squareroot of the Mayan calendar)...I'll be right with you on that Gro..
:^(


LMAO!
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Quoting naplesdreamer28:


Is this a joke? Have not seen this one. Obviously not reliable I'm assuming that far out.


He's joking. Everyone knows he's joking.
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Quoting Grothar:
How many days is 240 hours?


LOL
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
The system on the ECMWF appears not to develop due to interaction with Hispaniola, this is more of a track flip than a development flip.
Seems about right to me. By no means did the ECMWF "drop" the cyclone.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
168 hours



Weaker. Interesting.
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Whats up guys?
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Atlantic and East Pacific now tied

invest_RENUMBER_ep992011_ep072011.ren


7-E looking pretty organized to me. May try to develop pretty quickly:
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Quoting atmoaggie:
I hereby second the above notions.

Given the conditions and model support, I'd be surprised if someone isn't staring down a hurricane 12 days from now. I'm almost to point of accepting that it probably will not miss all major landmasses, given the consistency in steering parameters, as well.

-or-

GFS is on the precipice of making us look like fools.



the trick will be whether or not we can avoid the "It's gonna hit_______________ !!!!!!!!!" orgasmia for the next 9 days....
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597. JLPR2
I'm experiencing a band stronger than anything that Emily brought to me, not bad 93L.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
168 hours



whats that off the NC coast?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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