Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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that wave at 10N 30W all most looks like a strong TD or TS right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting AegirsGal:
Oh RitaEvac, that is just terrible. Actually I am kinda surprised I haven't seen more stories like that. Ugh, just awful.
Sadly there are Way too many stories out there like that, all you have to do is Drive thru Texas, you see it daily
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
Quoting AegirsGal:
CybrTeddy, I read about that. Back when it happened, NASA commandeered VFA-201's hangar and spaces at NAS JRB Fort Worth. I went in to make copies for the monthly "Hunters" Newsletter mailout. I saw dozens of pallets full of debris. Tragic.


Very tragic, and seeing more debris.. even after the shuttle ended its still sad to see.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24550
Quoting SQUAWK:


Dude..... do you ever have a good day????????

I mean, like, you don't have an air-conditioned house and car? Have you nothing cool to drink? Is there no ice cream where you are? Is your life really that bad??


LMAO
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Alot of untapped heat built up in GOM if something was to get in there!
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vary nic wave at 10N 30W it all so has a vary good spin i dont no about you but am watching it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
so many of my friends and family in TX are practically wishing for a storm with the extreme drought conditions....unfortunately it seems that is what it will take to bring some relief.
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Texas is all about extremes. The drought will most likey be broken by record setting rainfall and flooding.
Central Texas (Hill Country Region) has had some of the largest weekly rainfall rates I've seen (in excess of 30" in some areas).
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Quoting LPStormspotter:


Amen... we are begging for a storm.


but after the storm leaves, you would still have the heat..wouldnt that be even worse with no AC because of no power?
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Dude..... do you ever have a good day????????

I mean, like, you don't have an air-conditioned house and car? Have you nothing cool to drink? Is there no ice cream where you are? Is your life really that bad??


Lol...He's like the Texas version of Jedkins.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


They've also been finding pieces of space shuttle Columbia that fell in the lakes and pounds because of the extreme drought.
CybrTeddy, I read about that. Back when it happened, NASA commandeered VFA-201's hangar and spaces at NAS JRB Fort Worth. I went in to make copies for the monthly "Hunters" Newsletter mailout. I saw dozens of pallets full of debris. Tragic.
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ContraFlow in this Heat would be another problem as well if a Major would threaten some areas.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Quoting RitaEvac:
Texas heat, Texas drought, and invests dying or never materializing. Same as it ever was, same as it ever was. Will a storm please stand up and take charge out there please...


Amen... we are begging for a storm.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Texas heat, Texas drought, and invests dying or never materializing. Same as it ever was, same as it ever was. Will a storm please stand up and take charge out there please...


Dude..... do you ever have a good day????????

I mean, like, you don't have an air-conditioned house and car? Have you nothing cool to drink? Is there no ice cream where you are? Is your life really that bad??
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Quoting Grothar:


I just can't believe anyone really answered that. :)


You hang out the bait, something will bite...
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Quoting FLdewey:


People are tired of the little colored circles... they're looking for action. ;-)


Looking for a storm to just form and track, not damn percentages and colored circles every 6 hrs, and clouds waning and......ahhh hell I quit. just drive a cane into TX and put us outta of our misery
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re: 715, CT - thanks for popping up those charts; I was getting worried about the swirl east of the islands.
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So he moved to this blog, eh?

Geez, ignore him and don't feed him. He obviously doesn't care about the millions of others here in South Florida.
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93L looks better today
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting AegirsGal:
Oh RitaEvac, that is just terrible. Actually I am kinda surprised I haven't seen more stories like that. Ugh, just awful.


They've also been finding pieces of space shuttle Columbia that fell in the lakes and pounds because of the extreme drought.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24550
Quoting MrsOsa:
I don't know what happened to our weather here overnight in MS, but today it actually feels awesome here! If you sit still just right you can kind of feel a little coolness on the breeze! Better enjoy it while it lasts.


Yes and am loving every second. We had that cool front and another is supposed to come in in a couple days.
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Wondering what your take on this new tropical wave is? I am so concerned about the west coast of Florida next weekend!!!!!
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Bad situation in TX, and no tropical systems coming
I know, I live in TX, too.
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717. Tygor
Really looking forward to cheering this storm on towards the Texas coast.

And then having Texas eat the storm on the coast as everyone puts their heads in their hands as we must wait another month for a chance of rain.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I don't understand why people say there is nothing to watch when we have an invest in the Caribbean.


They like Drama???
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Increased 850 mb vort, the strongest that 93L has had at this time. This is telling you that the convective blowup is finally allowing 93L to begin to slowly spin up a surface circulation. However, at this time there appears to be nothing at the surface but everything is at the midlevels. Surface Convergence and divergence is lined up right up with the 850 vort max, 700 mb and 500 mb vort is also lined up with the 850 vort max, which also has an anti-cyclone directly over that same area. Basically, this does have a fair chance to develop, much better than it did yesterday. The ECMWF and NOGAPS remain the only models that develop it.

850 mb vorticity.

700 mb vort.

500 mb vort.

ULAC centered over the vort max area.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24550
Quoting AegirsGal:
Oh RitaEvac, that is just terrible. Actually I am kinda surprised I haven't seen more stories like that. Ugh, just awful.


Bad situation in TX, and no tropical systems coming
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Texas heat, Texas drought, and invests dying or never materializing. Same as it ever was, same as it ever was. Will a storm please stand up and take charge out there please...
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I don't know what happened to our weather here overnight in MS, but today it actually feels awesome here! If you sit still just right you can kind of feel a little coolness on the breeze! Better enjoy it while it lasts.
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GOES-13 Low Cloud Image 93L
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Oh RitaEvac, that is just terrible. Actually I am kinda surprised I haven't seen more stories like that. Ugh, just awful.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Well, it's a "me-first" attitude world. If it doesn't hit "me", then it's not important.

However, if 93L keeps organizing like it has today, it could strengthen quickly in the Western Caribbean and cause a lot of trouble for at least the Yucatan.

Yea IF 93L develops a LLC, it could really get going
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TORNADO WARNING
FLC061-162030-
/O.NEW.KMLB.TO.W.0026.110816T1930Z-110816T2030Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 PM EDT TUE AUG 16 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EASTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WINTER BEACH...WABASSO...VERO BEACH
SOUTH...VERO BEACH...INDIAN RIVER SHORES...GIFFORD...

* UNTIL 430 PM EDT.

* AT 326 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR WINTER
BEACH...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
INDIAN RIVER SHORES.

THIS STORM SHOWED SIGNS OF ROTATION AND COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AT
ANY TIME. DONT GET CAUGHT OFF GUARD!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A STRONG BUILDING ON
THE LOWEST FLOOR...IN AN INTERIOR ROOM SUCH AS A BATHROOM OR CLOSET.
KEEP AWAY FROM WINDOWS. GET UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF
STURDY FURNITURE. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY.

EVACUATE MOBILE HOMES OR VEHICLES FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER.

&&

LAT...LON 2756 8039 2763 8057 2779 8047 2777 8039
2775 8038 2771 8036 2764 8034
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 264DEG 4KT 2769 8046

$$


KELLY




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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
I don't understand why people say there is nothing to watch when we have an invest in the Caribbean.


Well, it's a "me-first" attitude world. If it doesn't hit "me", then it's not important.

However, if 93L keeps organizing like it has today, it could strengthen quickly in the Western Caribbean and cause a lot of trouble for at least the Yucatan.
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Nine Horses Without Water Die In Texas Heat

WEATHERFORD (August 15, 2011)--Criminal charges were pending Monday in a case involving the deaths of nine horses left without water in the searing Texas heat.

Parker County Sheriff Larry Fowler said eight horses were found dead on a ranch and a veterinarian euthanized a ninth horse that was suffering from liver and kidney failure.

Fowler says the horses were found Friday near Weatherford, and didn't have water or food.

Don Thomas of Arlington, who told KXAS-TV he leases the property to the horses' owner, who lives in Arizona, said says someone else took care of the animals, and their deaths were a tragedy.

Thomas says the well that pumps water for the horses malfunctioned, leaving their troughs completely dry.

The sheriff told WFAA-TV that the horses' caretaker lives near the property.
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Quoting JFV2014:
BRB, my friends, I'm off to go grab some quick grab, =).




oh yet the trolls back on



poof you go bye
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115437
Quoting SQUAWK:


Someone needs to remind you all that these storms don't think and therefore will not respond to reverse psychology or any other kind.

Except maybe Fresca.
Right on! Fresca? LOL!!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Hello? 93L is not something to just forget about, considering it's pretty organized.
I don't understand why people say there is nothing to watch when we have an invest in the Caribbean.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
I think the pressure around Rita is rising.
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Still good convergence on 93L.. supports continued thunderstorm development.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24550
93L CIMSS Wave Tracker,,Vorts getting better
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Quoting oreodogsghost:


I thought I detected wily reverse psychology there!


Someone needs to remind you all that these storms don't think and therefore will not respond to reverse psychology or any other kind.

Except maybe Fresca.
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Texas heat and drought....JUST.....KEEPS.....GOING....AND....GOIN G....ALL.....THE......WAY!!
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Good Poofing!!! Citi
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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