Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting presslord:
on an unrelated note...I just bought 4 lbs of shrimp right off the boat which my lovely bride promises to boil for me this evening...

...bubble, bubble, bubble, bubble, bubble....
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Quoting angiest:


The evacuation of Houston for Rita was a nightmare (well-known). People were making their own evacuation routes, and it was incredibly hot. My neighborhood fronts to a tollroad, that was not finished at that time. Tolls had been suspended, and people were trying to use it as an alternate route for IH-10, which hadn't yet been widened on the west side of town (towards San Antonio). To make it worse, this incomplete tollroad turned into (and still does, actually) a two lane blacktop that has some stop lights on it. Traffic on the tollroad and on the frontage road were at a standstill for hours on that last day or so before landfall. We had people coming into the neighborhood asking for ice or water for their children.
It was absolutely impossible for any of the residents of the neighborhood to get out for any reason.

what a mess! I remember hearing about it.
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Quoting presslord:
on an unrelated note...I just bought 4 lbs of shrimp right off the boat which my lovely bride promises to boil for me this evening...


Smellin' those shrimp, their beginnin' to boil...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Tomorrow at 18Z:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 17/1545Z
D. 15.0N 74.50W
E. 17/1615Z TO 17/2015Z --CORRECTED
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


thanks :)
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on an unrelated note...I just bought 4 lbs of shrimp right off the boat which my lovely bride promises to boil for me this evening...
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Definitely. If it ever does slow in forward speed, it could really take off, I'm afraid.
Only thing saving us from bad storms so far is IMO that forward speed. Even the most vigourous systems are going too fast to consolidate anything.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21643
Quoting hurricanehanna:


heya Pat. Can you imagine? middle of the day..all of those cars? It could be a nightmare on the freeway


The evacuation of Houston for Rita was a nightmare (well-known). People were making their own evacuation routes, and it was incredibly hot. My neighborhood fronts to a tollroad, that was not finished at that time. Tolls had been suspended, and people were trying to use it as an alternate route for IH-10, which hadn't yet been widened on the west side of town (towards San Antonio). To make it worse, this incomplete tollroad turned into (and still does, actually) a two lane blacktop that has some stop lights on it. Traffic on the tollroad and on the frontage road were at a standstill for hours on that last day or so before landfall. We had people coming into the neighborhood asking for ice or water for their children.
It was absolutely impossible for any of the residents of the neighborhood to get out for any reason.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting hurricanehanna:
any scheduled recon flights for 93l?
Tomorrow at 18Z:

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01FFA INVEST
C. 17/1545Z
D. 15.0N 74.50W
E. 17/1615Z TO 17/2015Z --CORRECTED
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Also from that buoy:

The wind has gone from ENE, to E, to ESE as the "center" has passed by it to the S. If there was a LLC down there this is the wind shift you would expect to see. Not saying there is a LLC, but it seems to be trying to get its act together.


Yep...

But we have nothing to track, right?
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
any scheduled recon flights for 93l?
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Quoting weatherjr:
Tazmanian: You won the prize for your post 777 (just a joke)



lol
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Dude..... do you ever have a good day????????

I mean, like, you don't have an air-conditioned house and car? Have you nothing cool to drink? Is there no ice cream where you are? Is your life really that bad??
As pple in the Bahamas would say, "Ahhh, Lawd...." ... in that prayerful, I-feel-so-sorry-for-you tone.... I think GA pple might say, "bless your heart"....

;o)
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21643
Quoting CybrTeddy:


ITCZ convection. I think the wave in the middle of your previous image though is indeed the one the ECMWF/GFS/CMC/NOGAPS show development.



wow it looks vary well right now huh? can you tell if it has a close low with it?
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Just my humble uneducated take, but it appears that 93L has been severely hindered in developing due to the very dry air in front of it. While what is 93L has moistened the air as it passes through it, the air in front of it remains extremely dry and this really keeps the western and southern edge from firing up through that dry air ceiling.... If not for this dry air 93L would be at least a tropical storm by now, but with it... who knows.

Whether 93L develops or not, this dry air hindrance should be removed for the blobs of potential storms that follow 93L. From all indications this hurricane season is getting ready to rumble.
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Also from that buoy:

The wind has gone from ENE, to E, to ESE as the "center" has passed by it to the S. If there was a LLC down there this is the wind shift you would expect to see. Not saying there is a LLC, but it seems to be trying to get its act together.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
CybrTeddy and kmanislander do you noted the wave at 10N and 30W vary good spin with it it all so has 2 more wave one in front the other in the back wish could all so from in too some in i wounder if that is the wave at 10N and 30W the mode runs are forcasting it sure looks like a TD right now


ITCZ convection. I think the wave in the middle of your previous image though is indeed the one the ECMWF/GFS/CMC/NOGAPS show development.
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Quoting weatherjr:
quoting Tazmanian: He said: "that wave at 10N 30W all most looks like a strong TD or TS right now"
Surely that area will be our next invest/tropical storm in the very near future, IMO. Bloggers: stay tuned.




yup
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CybrTeddy and kmanislander do you noted the wave at 10N and 30W vary good spin with it it all so has 2 more wave one in front the other in the back wish could all so from in too some in i wounder if that is the wave at 10N and 30W the mode runs are forcasting it sure looks like a TD right now
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Quoting angiest:


30" in a week? Bah! That much can (and has) fallen in one day in Houston.




Back when it rained here.


Yes, I believe S.E. Texas holds some of the records for 24 hour rainfall rates.
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Latest buoy update:

Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.85 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.05 in ( Falling )



Link
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Quoting Patrap:
ContraFlow in this Heat would be another problem as well if a Major would threaten some areas.



heya Pat. Can you imagine? middle of the day..all of those cars? It could be a nightmare on the freeway
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Going to canabalize tower try switching up hard drive into IBM tower sorry for spelling my fat fingers are no good on the stupid phonr
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting RitaEvac:
Yes, it's just blown outta proportion out there, I like to exaggerate and make things up




Looks like they may need to make a new Category

D5 - Potential For New Desert Formation
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there lining up tax one after another on my I phone sucks main is still down


Tax?...lol! Good thing you have that smart phone to turn Taz into Tax.....Poof him Taz!! hehehe!
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
Quoting AegirsGal:
North TX did see some rain, but with the size of Texas, everything so far has been too few and far between.


I'm speaking in terms of Texas' history. Central Texas is famous for record rainfall rates from stalled tropical systems.

I remember a stalled tropical system back in the summer of 2002 where areas saw up to 50 inches of rain in 7 days. Most areas received over 20" of rain from the system.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
there lining up tax one after another on my I phone sucks main is still down
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53308
Quoting AegirsGal:
I know, I live in TX, too.


Me three.
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762. DFWjc
Quoting LPStormspotter:


Amen... we are begging for a storm.


We had a storm come from the North on Thursday... and by the time it got to Cowboy Stadium(Cowboys vs Broncos that night), it dried up, some gusty winds and a 10 degree temperature drop. The last time we saw rain was almost 45 days before hand....
Member Since: July 19, 2011 Posts: 1 Comments: 1006
14.5 North
68.5 West

AND its popp'n some storms all around its center. I believe that we will see the red crayon by tommorrow sometime for him. 93L has made significant improvement in it's vertical structure today and done so in the dead zone.
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Texas is all about extremes. The drought will most likey be broken by record setting rainfall and flooding.
Central Texas (Hill Country Region) has had some of the largest weekly rainfall rates I've seen (in excess of 30" in some areas).


30" in a week? Bah! That much can (and has) fallen in one day in Houston.




Back when it rained here.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
You hit the nail on the head. Over Half of my rain the past 5 years combined has come from 2 or 3 tropical systems and nothing else.


It has been a very dry weather pattern for Texas....has made it hard on the farmers
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Quoting kmanislander:


No question that this is its best showing so far.


Definitely. If it ever does slow in forward speed, it could really take off, I'm afraid.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Increased 850 mb vort, the strongest that 93L has had at this time. This is telling you that the convective blowup is finally allowing 93L to begin to slowly spin up a surface circulation. However, at this time there appears to be nothing at the surface but everything is at the midlevels. Surface Convergence and divergence is lined up right up with the 850 vort max, 700 mb and 500 mb vort is also lined up with the 850 vort max, which also has an anti-cyclone directly over that same area. Basically, this does have a fair chance to develop, much better than it did yesterday. The ECMWF and NOGAPS remain the only models that develop it.

850 mb vorticity.

700 mb vort.

500 mb vort.

ULAC centered over the vort max area.


No question that this is its best showing so far.
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.
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oh, I am so tempted....must...restrain....
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Quoting hurricanehanna:
so many of my friends and family in TX are practically wishing for a storm with the extreme drought conditions....unfortunately it seems that is what it will take to bring some relief.
You hit the nail on the head. Over Half of my rain the past 5 years combined has come from 2 or 3 tropical systems and nothing else.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
here the wave at 10N 30W am talking about



and there two more wave one in front one in the back


the mideed one could from 1st



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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Very tragic, and seeing more debris.. even after the shuttle ended its still sad to see.
I couldn't agree more. I was one of those kids that wished they could have gone to Space Camp.
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Yes, it's just blown outta proportion out there, I like to exaggerate and make things up

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93L is still pretty huge, but looking somewhat better than it did this a.m......

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21643
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
Texas is all about extremes. The drought will most likey be broken by record setting rainfall and flooding.
Central Texas (Hill Country Region) has had some of the largest weekly rainfall rates I've seen (in excess of 30" in some areas).
North TX did see some rain, but with the size of Texas, everything so far has been too few and far between.
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that wave at 10N 30W all most looks like a strong TD or TS right now
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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