Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Hello?
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Quoting kmanislander:


Any time. What is "valious" ?


He meant to say "valuable". In Spanish "valioso" means valuable.
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looks like 93 wont hit U.S. but the one after that sure will........
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hmm I say orange 30-40% tonight and red by 12 pm wed, then TD8/TS Harvey by 5pm, TS Warning for Jamaica and the Cayman Island, at 11pm wed or 12 pm thurs becomes a Hurricane, hurrcane warning for Jamaica and Grand Cayman TS warning for Cayman Brac and Little cayman

This is what I say don't go blabing off that that is not going to happen or that I am a cane-caster I am not
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I got about 13" here Port Arthur for just the second half of July, according to my handy-dandy backyard gauge. The grass and the skeeters were great for about 12 days. Now my grass looks worse than it did in June. At least I'm not having to mow it (which will allow me to conserve energy for boarding and contra-flowing that make come next week or the week after.....ugh).
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Quoting kmanislander:


Any time. What is "valious" ?


various and valorous....you have various valorous opinions....hehehe...:^)
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
why is the eastern atlantic satellite showin march dates??
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Bye Gert:

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GERT ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072011
500 PM AST TUE AUG 16 2011

...GERT DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 54.7W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES
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Quoting weatherjr:
Kmanislander: Thanks for valious opinion


Any time. What is "valious" ?
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Quoting weatherjr:
Hellow Levi32. Any opinion about the eastern wave close to CV that models develop?


It's full of dry air at the moment, but has a well-defined area of broad rotation. It could very well try to develop when it gets farther west, as several waves have tried to do in the central Atlantic recently. The model support, though not unanimous, makes it seem likely that it will at least try to develop, though we can't yet anchor ourselves to thoughts that this will be a hurricane, as some of the models show.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting USAFwxguy:


I check them all, just linked the vis.

Looks like that is the area of spin...near as I can tell
yeah, perhaps a bit closer to 69W now though.
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Quoting Levi32:


No, the models are definitely showing the African wave. The feature you mention looks like normal ITCZ activity to me.




ok but dont foor get Iavn in 2004 fromed in the ITCZ so its is rare for a storm too from in the ITCZ but we can see some from time too tome
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The next few hours will be an important time for 93L, as it approaches diurnal minimum. Will it repeat its same decaying process or will it fight through it? (I'm making this sound way more intense than it really is lol)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
Levi32 have you noted that wave at 10N and 30W it has a vary good spin all so do you think the wave at 10N and 30W is the one the mode runs are forcast it looks like a strong TD or TS right now


No, the models are definitely showing the African wave. The feature you mention looks like normal ITCZ activity to me.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting weatherjr:
Kmanislander: Any opinion about the suspicious wave in the far eastern atlantic?


Sorry, I was doing something else for a while.

That wave definitely holds potential for development. Right now there is lots of vorticity at the 850 mb level ( 5000 feet ) but it is spread out over a wide area. The ASCAT pass this morning showed an elongated surface low with converging winds so it has a surface low to work with.

It will take some time for it to tighten up but I would say that it is probably the most robust wave we have seen so far this season. The models sure like it, although I am not a fan of the models before we get a closed low.

I have seen the doom scenarios with various model runs but you should take those with a grain of salt for the time being.
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Quoting weatherjr:
A turtle without legs can move faster than this blogg right now.


Time to go back to cheetos and milk jugs!
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20:15 Low Cloud Image

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129830
Link

ABC islands radar
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http://www.suite101.com/content/heaviest-24hour-rai nfall-in-us-history-a79280
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CIMSS 93L Tracker with bells and whistles
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129830
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yes, I believe S.E. Texas holds some of the records for 24 hour rainfall rates.
Alvin, Texas in 1979 holds the nations 24 hour record of 43 inches. Tropical Storm Claudette.

http://www.suite101.com/content/heaviest-24hour-r ainfall-in-us-history-a79280
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
14.8N, 68.2W....?

Link
I would agree with that location. I would recommend RGB imagery though. To me it is superior in almost every aspect :~)
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Quoting weatherjr:
A turtle without legs can move faster than this blogg right now.




dude evere one is at work or school right now so they are vary busy right now with other things in life then this old blog
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Hmmm.... Interesting loop....

Link


That is certainly an interesting loop. It moves towards the west with this system, so it exaggerates the movement of clouds toward the east. However, it still appears that we have low level clouds moving eastward.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10284
Levi32 have you noted that wave at 10N and 30W it has a vary good spin all so do you think the wave at 10N and 30W is the one the mode runs are forcast it looks like a strong TD or TS right now
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Quoting Trouper415:
Hey Taz! Long time no see. How ya been?




been doing well have you noted the wave at 10N and 30W?
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TS.Gert's_6pmGMT_ATCF : Starting 15August_6pmGMT and ending 16August_6pmGMT

The 4 short line-segments represent TS.Gert's path and
the longest line-segment is the straightline projection.

Using straightline projection of the travel-speed&heading derived from the ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 12pmGMT then 6pmGMT :
TropicalStormGert's travel-speed was 29.3mph(47.2k/h) on a heading of 53.2degrees(NW)
TS.Gert was headed toward passage over St.Agnes(Cornwall)UK ~3days15hours from now

Copy&paste 32.7n62.9w-33.9n62.2w, 33.9n62.2w-35.5n60.6w, 35.5n60.6w-37.1n58.5w, 37.1n58.5w-38.6n55.9w, nqy, 37.1n58.5w-50.3n5.24w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

The previous mapping (for 16August_12pmGMT)
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Hmmm.... Interesting loop....

Link
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Starting to look more round:

1515Z:


2015Z:


Code orange at 8pm?
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Quoting Levi32:
12z ECMWF ensembles seem to favor a track of our African wave over Cuba by Day 10. They also still develop 93L.



Pretty sure we'll see P017L coming back up as at least a minimum TS on 00Z run tonight.
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Hey Taz! Long time no see. How ya been?
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12z ECMWF ensembles seem to favor a track of our African wave over Cuba by Day 10. They also still develop 93L.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26700
Quoting BahaHurican:
As pple in the Bahamas would say, "Ahhh, Lawd...." ... in that prayerful, I-feel-so-sorry-for-you tone.... I think GA pple might say, "bless your heart"....

;o)
I don't know if they say this in the Bahamas but down here we say, "Oh, you poor little sufferer."
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting hurricanehanna:

what a mess! I remember hearing about it.


One thing I will always remember about that...

I would occasionally go out and check on the progress, or lack thereof, of the traffic clearing out. One time when I was out there, standing on the sidewalk, someone on the frontage road had had enough. He jumped the curb and started BACKING UP down the sidewalk. He then proceeded to cuss me out for standing on the sidewalk.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

Invest 93L
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129830
Excerpt from San Juan NWS discussion about pretty strong gusts today.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS
BROUGHT SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE LOCAL AREA. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS WERE OBSERVED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT AS THIS
TROPICAL WAVE PASSES. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF OVER 40 KNOTS WERE
OBSERVED IN SAINT CROIX AND LA PARGUERA WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
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Quoting presslord:
on an unrelated note...I just bought 4 lbs of shrimp right off the boat which my lovely bride promises to boil for me this evening...

...bubble, bubble, bubble, bubble, bubble....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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