Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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* Arlene
* Bret
* Cindy
* Don
* Emily
* Franklin
* Gert

* Harvey
* Irene
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* Katia (Worst replacement for Katrina)
* Lee
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* Nate
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BOLD = Used
Italic = Coming soon?
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Afternoon. 93L let out quite the thunderstorm while I was at school.
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Oh man, this has got to stop LMAO !!
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Anyone know what the models are showing for the African wave? I know yesterday they pointed to a hurricane at South Carolina. Guessing today they'll show it hitting a different a country given how far out the system is. And that it isn't formed yet.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
NICE...



That confirms what we are seeing in the vis imagery.
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OK which one will be the BIGGIE of the YEAR!

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert

Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Oh boy...

August 14, 2011:



August 15, 2011:



Rather big jump in the TCHP.


Actually, from 70W the TCHP is high enough to support a major. From Jamaica on would support RI as we have seen so often in the past. Fortunately 93L is not a TS right now or the next three days could have been really scary.
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NICE...

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10156
Wonder what the gfs is gonna do on the 18z run

Stay consistent with last 3 runs?
Or come up with a very different solution?
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Quoting Tazmanian:




TropicalAnalystwx13
take a look at are wave at 10N and 30W lol


Levi already answered about this - It is just ITCZ convection, and will not develop.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Oh boy...

August 14, 2011:



August 15, 2011:



Rather big jump in the TCHP.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting tiggeriffic:


mt dew thru the nose...boy that burned...but NOT posting the second part of that saying....PRICELESS!


LOL. Sometimes you just have to back away.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good afternoon all.

Invest 93L has made a rather significant jump in organization since this morning, I'm impressed. I would be very surprised if the National Hurricane Center didn't give 93L a 30% chance for development a their 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook. Additionally, 93L is now exiting the "dead zone", which should allow for 93L to strengthen gradually.





TropicalAnalystwx13
take a look at are wave at 10N and 30W lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
It looks like there is a circulation trying to develop, but that loop is somewhat deceiving since it is already moving west itself.
Thanks South.Was I anywhere close with my assumption of 93L?
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


haha. We see the same thing going on down there. With 93L longitude, should expect some even greater gains in its org, assuming all other factors remain relatively unchanged.


Three hours until sundown and then it has a chance to consolidate overnight into Dmax before sunrise tomorrow morning. By then it will be beyond 70W and closing in on 75 which is my threshold for this to really start closing off a surface low, assuming it does at all.
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Great minds think like me. Therefore every person is me.

What did I just say?
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Good afternoon all.

Invest 93L has made a rather significant jump in organization since this morning, I'm impressed. I would be very surprised if the National Hurricane Center didn't give 93L a 30% chance for development a their 8PM Tropical Weather Outlook. Additionally, 93L is now exiting the "dead zone", which should allow for 93L to strengthen gradually.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30257
Quoting USAFwxguy:
Next CIMMS update should depict nice vort right in that area, more consolidated. I think 93L really has been a fighter, and now approaching 70W should be watched to begin slow or moderate development.

I agree...thnx for your insight!! Ok hypothetically speaking if 93L were to develop into a strong tropical system within the next 48 hours or so how far north do you think a deeper system would track????Texas maybe????
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Quoting kmanislander:


Now, now take it easy. Everything will be just fine LOL


mt dew thru the nose...boy that burned...but NOT posting the second part of that saying....PRICELESS!
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Quoting tiggeriffic:


cough cough choke choke ROFLMBO


Now, now take it easy. Everything will be just fine LOL
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lol
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 637
Quoting kmanislander:


That is a part of the saying. I won't post the second part LOL !


cough cough choke choke ROFLMBO
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Great minds think like me.

Isn't that how the saying goes?


" great minds think alike " is a part of the saying. I won't post the second part LOL !
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Buoy data near 93L - nothing too spectacular. Water temp's 84F.

Link
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It would appear from satellite imagery that a surface low is trying to form near 15N and 68W. 93L has done very well today considering the heat of the day and the fast trades.Dmin is about 2 to 3 hours away.

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seen these systems somewhat get there act together in the death zone the past couple yrs could be another tropical storm before landfall near belize
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
I hope I am saying this right but doesnt it look like it is starting to wrap the convection around it and trying to tighten it up?Please correct me if I am wrong.TIA
It looks like there is a circulation trying to develop, but that loop is somewhat deceiving since it is already moving west itself.
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
More rotation with 93L:

Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 11 Comments: 2448
Massive solid rain field at tip top right now !!!!
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857. wpb
recon canceled today?
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TD 7-E and Fernanda are now predicted to become a hurricane. If that materializes, that would mean the East Pacific had 7 consecutive hurricanes, while the Atlantic had 7 consecutive tropical storm.
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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Hmmm.... Interesting loop....

Link
I hope I am saying this right but doesnt it look like it is starting to wrap the convection around it and trying to tighten it up?Please correct me if I am wrong.TIA
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Quoting synthvol:
I got about 13" here Port Arthur for just the second half of July, according to my handy-dandy backyard gauge. The grass and the skeeters were great for about 12 days. Now my grass looks worse than it did in June. At least I'm not having to mow it (which will allow me to conserve energy for boarding and contra-flowing that make come next week or the week after.....ugh).


Copy that!
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Quoting Sfloridacat5:


I'm speaking in terms of Texas' history. Central Texas is famous for record rainfall rates from stalled tropical systems.

I remember a stalled tropical system back in the summer of 2002 where areas saw up to 50 inches of rain in 7 days. Most areas received over 20" of rain from the system.
Very true
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


various and valorous....you have various valorous opinions....hehehe...:^)


Oh man, I walked into that eh LOL
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Tropical storms Franklin and Gert both rode the Gulf Stream out toward Europe, and now Gert is a very small yet compact extratropical cyclone.
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Quoting palmasdelrio:


He meant to say "valuable". In Spanish "valioso" means valuable.


Ah, thanks. As you may have surmised Spanish is not my strong suit LOL
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hmm I say orange 30-40% tonight and red by 12 pm wed, then TD8/TS Harvey by 5pm, TS Warning for Jamaica and the Cayman Island, at 11pm wed or 12 pm thurs becomes a Hurricane, hurrcane warning for Jamaica and Grand Cayman TS warning for Cayman Brac and Little cayman

This is what I say don't go blabing off that that is not going to happen or that I am a cane-caster I am not
If 93l get TD status somtime Wensday ill give it a shot of Major Hurricane satus, defintly hurricane.
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Hello?
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.