Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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ABC islands radar
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


It is well on its way on developing a surface circulation.



Yeah.



About the only thing I can think of.



coool so are mb falling at this time if so what is the lowest mb you can find
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting Tazmanian:
so dos 93L have a well-defined surfac yet or geting one


It is well on its way on developing a surface circulation.

Quoting MississippiWx:


A well defined surface circulation...

It seems to be on its way to achieving that, but it's not there yet.


Yeah.

Quoting AllStar17:


Cons:

Fast forward motion


About the only thing I can think of.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


93L pro's:

* Low wind shear
* Moistening environment
* High SSTs
* TCHP
* Piling of air and slowing trade winds

Con's:

* Want to add any???


Cons:

Time.

Still very dry air southwest of it.
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Third time is a REAL charm!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 646
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


93L pro's:

* Low wind shear
* Moistening environment
* High SSTs
* TCHP
* Piling of air and slowing trade winds

Con's:

* Want to add any???


A well defined surface circulation...

It seems to be on its way to achieving that, but it's not there yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
so dos 93L have a well-defined surfac yet or geting one
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


93L pro's:

* Low wind shear
* Moistening environment
* High SSTs
* TCHP
* Piling of air and slowing trade winds

Con's:

* Want to add any???


Cons:

Fast forward motion
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


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Quoting Levi32:
There is some kind of wave in the western Caribbean, with the axis actually almost on top of you, Kman. It is slowing down the trade winds and allowing air to pile up ahead of 93L.



93L pro's:

* Low wind shear
* Moistening environment
* High SSTs
* TCHP
* Piling of air and slowing trade winds

Con's:

* Want to add any???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Levi32:
There is some kind of wave in the western Caribbean, with the axis actually almost on top of you, Kman. It is slowing down the trade winds and allowing air to pile up ahead of 93L.



93L has excellent ventilation and is starting to get a more "cyclonic look" to it.
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Quoting Abacosurf:
Come on Kman....you might need to let him out of the back room for a poddy break.


For a moment I thought he was looking over my shoulder LOL.
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Hey guys check out my latest tropical update with video and let me know what you think. I'm certainly no Levi, but i do my best to give an accurate and unbiased forecast based on environmental conditions! (Please excuse the SE Texas voice I know i sound like a hick LOL)

Tropical Weather Video
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Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


10N is a perfectly normal place for the ITCZ. To add to your Ivan comment, the difference is, Ivan originated from a tropical wave. This is just regular ITCZ convection.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting kmanislander:


I'll let USAF reply. I fear we will say the same thing for the third time LOL


Maybe you guys were twins separated at birth.
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Well...If Fernanda becomes a hurricane, it looks like the streak will continue after "Greg". TD #7-E is forecast to become a hurricane in the coming days, and so is Fernanda.

It may sound crazy, but I believe the Atlantic will end their tropical storm streak after breaking a new record today.
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There is some kind of wave in the western Caribbean, with the axis actually almost on top of you, Kman. It is slowing down the trade winds and allowing air to start piling up ahead of 93L. This could indicate a favorable environment ahead for strengthening if 93L manages to develop a well-defined surface circulation.

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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest93
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




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Quoting kmanislander:


The one impediment to RI would be the fast froward speed. It would need to slow to 12 mph or thereabouts to really get cranking in short order once it became a TS.


True...However, it should slow once in the Western Caribbean.
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Quoting TheNewGuy:
Impressive


That thing is huge.
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Houston NWS AFD 3PM 8-16-2011

NHC IS MONITORING A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT (INVEST 93L).
NHC/HPC ARE FORECASTING THIS SYSTEM TO TRACK WEST OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE KEEPING IT WELL SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE
AREA. IN FACT IF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS FURTHER THE SUBSIDENCE AROUND
IT WILL LIKELY HELP STRENGTHEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA EVEN
FURTHER. AS FAR AS THE UPPER RIDGE...THE MODELS HAD BEEN SHOWING
IT SHIFTING WEST OF THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY THOUGH THE 12Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS SOLUTION.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



do you guys all ways have too say that do you guys eve look and make sure its ITCZ convection or do you this go its ITCZ convection if i re call Iavn in 2004 from from the ITCZ and it was even still be low it for a time be for it got out of


and way i dont even thnik you guys even really look too see if its part of the ITCZ 10N is vary far N i think from the ITCZ


so what do you think about the wave at 10N and 30W looks good huh? and i think it will devlop but will see what wed has for it wont we


10N is a perfectly normal place for the ITCZ. To add to your Ivan comment, the difference is, Ivan originated from a tropical wave. This is just regular ITCZ convection.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL...Fair enough.

But, you can reply to this statement...

If the surface circulation can establish itself sooner rather than later, who's to say that 93L won't have the opportunity for rapid intensification down the road?


The one impediment to RI would be the fast froward speed. It would need to slow to 12 mph or thereabouts to really get cranking in short order once it became a TS.
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93L looks good for an invest going into D-Min yesterday at this time there was just a few small spots of convection and little cloud cover now it look really x4 good
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could be a territorial tiger killing these swimmers http://surftweeters.com/another-shark-attack-in-se ychelles-2-deaths-this-month/
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Quoting Levi32:
902.

10N is a very normal location for the ITCZ.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
From the LCH WSO:

AFDLCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
333 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2011

.DISCUSSION...(....)
THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL MEANDER A LITTLE TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME COOLING ALOFT WITH LESS OF A CAP...AND A MORE MOIST
AIR MASS TO ENTER THE REGION.

It appears to me that 93L is "meandering" on a slightly north of due west track (280-ish). If it meanders far enough north (feeling a slight tug from the systems N and NE???), and if the ridge "meanders" far enough west, I wonder if it has a decent chance of making it's way at least to the Valley (RGV, as of S TX)? I know my family there could use it. Just not anything more than lots of RA. There seems to be a mid-level spin ahead of 93. In any case, the parcel of dry air in front of it seems to be decreasing hourly now.
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Impressive

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902.

10N is a very normal location for the ITCZ.
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Quoting AllStar17:
I have no facts or evidence behind this, but I think 93L will pull some surprises.


I'm usually not one to do the "I have a gut feeling" thing, but I'm with you on this one. The current rate of organization is worrisome, especially with an upper level anticyclone with the system and TCHP values through the roof.
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*Repost*




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East Pacific Storm Parade.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Too funny. But obvious, too.

Even the use of "vis imagery"....lol
Come on Kman....you might need to let him out of the back room for a poddy break.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
NICE...



Certainly much improved. Large glob of vorticity off Africa, too.
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Quoting MississippiWx:


That is the best 850mb vort I have seen this year, even when you add in the actual tropical storms. It's very circular and stacked all the way to 500mb.

Well, considering half of our storms are fast-moving frontal systems or speedy storms, Arlene is our only "normal" system. So 93L is doing good.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I'll let USAF reply. I fear we will say the same thing for the third time LOL


LOL...Fair enough.

But, you can reply to this statement...

If the surface circulation can establish itself sooner rather than later, who's to say that 93L won't have the opportunity for rapid intensification down the road?
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


Too funny. But obvious, too.

Even the use of "vis imagery"....lol


Maybe we should buy lottery tickets or something. Unbelievable, and both posts right on top of each other. You wouldn't be psychic by any chance LOL ??
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Just a thought about the possible hurricane in two weeks. New Moon is on August 29 and perigee is on August 30. Not a perfect alignment but close. 38 hours apart. It will cause higher spring tides than normal. So if a hurricane hits at high tide there could be a significant enhancement to the surge.

Link for moon phases and apogee/perigee.

If a hurricane does come and you are in a coastal area checking your local tide tables is a good idea.

Also on September 27th-28th the new moon and perigee will be aligned even closer, 14 hours apart. Something to think about if a hurricane is threatening then. And on October 26 when they are 9 1/2 hours apart.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Levi already answered about this - It is just ITCZ convection, and will not develop.



do you guys all ways have too say that do you guys eve look and make sure its ITCZ convection or do you this go its ITCZ convection if i re call Iavn in 2004 from from the ITCZ and it was even still be low it for a time be for it got out of


and way i dont even thnik you guys even really look too see if its part of the ITCZ 10N is vary far N i think from the ITCZ


so what do you think about the wave at 10N and 30W looks good huh? and i think it will devlop but will see what wed has for it wont we
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
I have no facts or evidence behind this, but I think 93L will pull some surprises.
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The TROPICS are ripe for development ..lots of moisture on the satellite bubbling up ..it is that time of year for us!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


That is the best 850mb vort I have seen this year, even when you add in the actual tropical storms. It's very circular and stacked all the way to 500mb.


I'll let USAF reply. I fear we will say the same thing for the third time LOL
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


looks consistent with what vis imagery shows, as discussed previously by myself and the guy that thinks like me.
Quoting kmanislander:


That confirms what we are seeing in the vis imagery.


That is the best 850mb vort I have seen this year, even when you add in the actual tropical storms. It's very circular and stacked all the way to 500mb.
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* Arlene
* Bret
* Cindy
* Don
* Emily
* Franklin
* Gert

* Harvey
* Irene
* Jose
* Katia (Worst replacement for Katrina)
* Lee
* Maria
* Nate
* Ophelia
* Philippe
* Rina (Horrible replacement for Rita)
* Sean
* Tammy
* Vince
* Whitney

BOLD = Used
Italic = Coming soon?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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