Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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I have to leave for a while. Also having problems posting with error message. Quote function not working. Back soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting USAFwxguy:
18Z GFS weaker so far with E ATL wave


Um, no its not. In fact, at 51 hours surface pressures are a good 2mb lower in the vicinity of pre-97L compared to the previous run.
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Quoting Levi32:


At 51 hours it is exactly the same pressure (1007mb) as the 12z had it at the same valid time.


yeah just caught my error.

Thanks for having my back.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
18Z GFS weaker so far with E ATL wave


At 51 hours it has exactly the same pressure (1007mb) as the 12z had it at the same valid time.
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18Z GFS weaker so far with E ATL wave

scratch that.
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Quoting kmanislander:


No question that 93L is starting to take on a certain look. I have seen many fast movers start slowing just below Haiti so that is the first place I will be watching to see what the forward speed does. Notice the weakness that starts near Haiti with the center of the Atl high shunted off to the NE ??. This should bring the speed down late tonight / tomorrow.



Yup, and again, we have the MJO currently creeping into the octants which favor upward motion in the deep tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, so overall support in the Atlantic tropical circulation cell is increasing as time goes on.

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Dry stable air should hamper 93L up until the GOM, that is when I foresee this actually doing something with itself.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



coool so are mb falling at this time if so what is the lowest mb you can find


29.85" at Buoy 42059. That's about an hour old. Falling, although not rapidly.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%)



Thanks for that, but I wanted the RH values, not the RI values.

Relative Humidity.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Quoting FLdewey:


Good news... it's rare to see the blog agree on anything.


I concur.
Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


93L pro's:

* Low wind shear
* Moistening environment
* High SSTs
* TCHP
* Piling of air and slowing trade winds

Con's:

* Want to add any???


I think it's large size may be hindering it just a bit, but seems to be organizing pretty fast so might be overcoming that.
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Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
THIS BLOG dispite a few who like to correct folks in a rude manner is the most informed site that I have been on. You can really see some brilliants along with passion for the Science of Tropical weather. THERE are alot of intelligent well informed people on here. I get on here first to check the tropics first then go to my local weather second..Keep up up the great blogging.


You must have taken my advice. No shouting this time. Anger management is where it's at...
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Need 93L to gain some latitude, get this puppy in the GOM, and then drive WNW into TX!!!
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Quoting MississippiWx:


Gooooos frabbaaaaa.

Here, sing this...

"I feel pretty, oh so pretty. I feel pretty and witty and...gaaaaaaay. And I pity, any girl who isn't me today! La la la la la laaa la la!"


Now that's funnnnneeeee!!!
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Quoting kmanislander:


No question that 93L is starting to take on a certain look. I have seen many fast movers start slowing just below Haiti so that is the first place I will be watching to see what the forward speed does. Notice the weakness that starts near Haiti with the center of the Atl high shunted off to the NE ??. This should bring the speed down late tonight/tomorrow.



almost had #3... no kidding, but refreshed first.
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Member Since: July 17, 2009 Posts: 71 Comments: 26825
Quoting AllStar17:
I have no facts or evidence behind this, but I think 93L will pull some surprises.


It's possible ...

Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:
In my dream I was asked by the people to climb high into the sky, to look for hurricanes on the horizon.

Fearful of this awkward crow's nest they placed me in, I fulfilled their request, and as I rose higher and higher in the sky, a place kept echoing in my mind ...


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Quoting MississippiWx:


Gooooos frabbaaaaa.

Here, sing this...

"I feel pretty, oh so pretty. I feel pretty and witty and...gaaaaaaay. And I pity, any girl who isn't me today! La la la la la laaa la la!"


"So was the Air Marshall in on it too?"

"No, he was just in a bad mood."
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THIS BLOG dispite a few who like to correct folks in a rude manner is the most informed site that I have been on. You can really see some brilliants along with passion for the Science of Tropical weather. THERE are alot of intelligent well informed people on here. I get on here first to check the tropics first then go to my local weather second..Keep up up the great blogging.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Can somebody post the RH values that SHIPS is predicting for 93L?

TIA.


Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.1 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hispaniola is getting hammered by 93L with heavy thunderstorms, primarily the Dominican Republic.



DR can handle the rain far better than Haiti.
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Quoting Levi32:
There is some kind of wave in the western Caribbean, with the axis actually almost on top of you, Kman. It is slowing down the trade winds and allowing air to start piling up ahead of 93L. This could indicate a favorable environment ahead for strengthening if 93L manages to develop a well-defined surface circulation.



No question that 93L is starting to take on a certain look. I have seen many fast movers start slowing just below Haiti so that is the first place I will be watching to see what the forward speed does. Notice the weakness that starts near Haiti with the center of the Atl high shunted off to the NE ??. This should bring the speed down late tonight / tomorrow.

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Quoting MississippiWx:


Gooooos frabbaaaaa.

Here, sing this...

"I feel pretty, oh so pretty. I feel pretty and witty and...gaaaaaaay. And I pity, any girl who isn't me today! La la la la la laaa la la!"

ROFLMBO Priceless....I luv it!!!!
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Hispaniola is getting hammered by 93L with heavy thunderstorms, primarily the Dominican Republic.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Hey guys check out my latest tropical update with video and let me know what you think. I'm certainly no Levi, but i do my best to give an accurate and unbiased forecast based on environmental conditions! (Please excuse the SE Texas voice I know i sound like a hick LOL)




Really enjoy your blog. Look forward to them.
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Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
Please if there is anyone here in SW la/ upper TX coast region and your wishcasting. PLEASE STOP. TO MUCH WORK TO DO TO BE INTERRUPTED BY A HURRICANE. LOL THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT IN THIS PRIME TIME OF THE SEASON.


The people who are wishcasting for a Texas hits are the one who need rain.. BAD, no not bad.. URGENTLY. The dry air is so bad in Texas that it knocked Don down to a remnant low, so I imagine any hurricane approaching Texas would weaken pretty quickly, and give them much needed rain. Something like Claudette would probably do.
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967. CJ5
93L looks good. It looks like a good discussion will be shaping up about her tomorrow.
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I wonder what Ralph Nader would say on this subject?
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Fernando looks to become a hurricane and the next one. and all we got is Tropical Storms. SMH!
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Quoting xtremeweathertracker:
Hey guys check out my latest tropical update with video and let me know what you think. I'm certainly no Levi, but i do my best to give an accurate and unbiased forecast based on environmental conditions! (Please excuse the SE Texas voice I know i sound like a hick LOL)

Tropical Weather Video
Everybody comes from somewhere...
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Quoting audreyritalillyLa44:
Please if there is anyone here in SW la/ upper TX coast region and your wishcasting. PLEASE STOP. TO MUCH WORK TO DO TO BE INTERRUPTED BY A HURRICANE. LOL THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT IN THIS PRIME TIME OF THE SEASON.


Gooooos frabbaaaaa.

Here, sing this...

"I feel pretty, oh so pretty. I feel pretty and witty and...gaaaaaaay. And I pity, any girl who isn't me today! La la la la la laaa la la!"
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Can somebody post the RH values that SHIPS is predicting for 93L?

TIA.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 113 Comments: 32511
Quoting FLdewey:
8 hours later are we REALLY still talking milk jugs?

*facepalm*


You know, milk jugs are unsafe....FEMA says.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


it was determined that the protein amount from half-gallon jugs would be negligible, and therefore safe to freeze water in.



Good news... it's rare to see the blog agree on anything.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:


it was determined that the protein amount from half-gallon jugs would be negligible, and therefore safe to freeze water in.


(In a whiney voice) BUT FEMA SAID...........
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NEXSAT 93L Viz Loop,excellent
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I say 93L is starting to aquire it LLC in not already aquired

93L should slow down to about 10-15kts near 75W then really slow down to near 5-10kts near 78W
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Look like zits. lol


Lol...Hopefully he won't mature into a smooth-faced adult.
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Good evening!

The Pacific hurricane spree doesn't seem to be stopping.

TS Fernanda is now predicted to become a hurricane.


And the new TD 7e is predicted to become a hurricane.

Member Since: August 9, 2009 Posts: 10 Comments: 5072
Quoting FLdewey:
8 hours later are we REALLY still talking milk jugs?

*facepalm*


it was determined that the protein amount from half-gallon jugs would be negligible, and therefore safe to freeze water in.

But you'll only be able to save half as much food.

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18Z GFS Init... up to 24HRs now:



1009MB low for P17L.
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Convection is starting to pop again:


Look like zits. lol
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Please if there is anyone here in SW la/ upper TX coast region and your wishcasting. PLEASE STOP. TO MUCH WORK TO DO TO BE INTERRUPTED BY A HURRICANE. LOL THANK YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT IN THIS PRIME TIME OF THE SEASON.
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Convection is starting to pop again:

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8 hours later are we REALLY still talking milk jugs?

*facepalm*
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IR

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Link
ABC islands radar
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8001

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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