Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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WoW.......TALK about NO Wind Shear.......GEESH!!!!


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Nightingale:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
301 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND EXTREME DROUGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS. ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT SURVIVE THE YUCATAN PASSAGE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF TEXAS THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS TEXAS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN-HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECASTS.


great...burst my bubble.


I don't even live in Texas and I feel like I need some anti-depressants after reading that!
Member Since: June 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 880
For all those Suffering in Texas just think how Special it will be when we get rain and it isnt 300 degrees every day, that is what I look forward to and I hope I never see again what I have seen this year, I don't wish that on any human or animal.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Curious minds want to know why your bride would boil a boat for you?

Oh my gosh, Coca Cola all over the high def flat-screen!!! (Glances around nervously for the wife)
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114

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
301 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND EXTREME DROUGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS. ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT SURVIVE THE YUCATAN PASSAGE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF TEXAS THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS TEXAS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN-HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECASTS.


great...burst my bubble.
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1039. scott39
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Since it is Mother Nature we are talking about it does not matter what we want or need unfortunately, something will either happen or not happen for whatever reasons. That is why so many are on this Blog because no one really knows what will happen and when but I will tell you one thing there are quite a few of Outstanding Knowledgable Weather people on here and I appreciate their inputs.
ok
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
18Z GFS a weakening low pressure area entering the Caribbean.


Weaker...

Not "weakening"
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Quoting scott39:
Ok Texans, You do only want a big nasty wet TS or cat 1 hurricane...right?? LOL
Since it is Mother Nature we are talking about it does not matter what we want or need unfortunately, something will either happen or not happen for whatever reasons. That is why so many are on this Blog because no one really knows what will happen and when but I will tell you one thing there are quite a few of Outstanding Knowledgable Weather people on here and I appreciate their inputs.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
18Z GFS a weakening low pressure area entering the Caribbean.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
Quoting presslord:
on an unrelated note...I just bought 4 lbs of shrimp right off the boat which my lovely bride promises to boil for me this evening...


Curious minds want to know why your bride would boil a boat for you?
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Only thing TX can hope for is a center relocate farther NE
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Quoting RitaEvac:
Jeremy, anything south of Cancun landfall on the Yucatan.....fughgettabouddit coming to TX

Dont even say that!!! (sniffles loudly and looks around for a tissue) LOL
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1031. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


It's developing at 90 hours. Nothing will stop it now on the run except land interaction.
Could that change?
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Weaker by 111, but still trying to get going.
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Day 4 on 18Z GFS:

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
After hours....
93L unanimated satellite image is still from yesterday
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Quoting AllStar17:


Greg.


Yeah, I fixed it.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
90 hrs, beginning to undergo cyclogenesis.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23011

Winds out of the NNW at Jackson point!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
1024. scott39
Ok Texans, You do only want a big nasty wet TS or cat 1 hurricane...right?? LOL
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Tropical Storm Gert:

Coming Soon.



Greg.
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*Repost*




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Tropical Storm Greg:

Coming Soon.

Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
Jeremy, anything south of Cancun landfall on the Yucatan.....fughgettabouddit coming to TX
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1018. Levi32
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
850 vort isn't looking that hot on the 18z GFS as of 84 hours.


It's developing at 90 hours. Nothing will stop it now on the run except land interaction.
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1017. SQUAWK
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Re - "Here, sing this..."

I dare somebody to sing that in public. ;P


Here ya go!!!!!

LINK
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


They're decent.

700-500 MB RH 52 56 56 56 56 60 62 66 68 72 70 72 71


Thanks, so it appears that dry air should be a lessening inhibitor.
Member Since: July 6, 2010 Posts: 108 Comments: 30241
I have the center at 14.5N/68.5W
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Need a 75mph cane to get that poleward movement which is better for TX
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Quoting scott39:
Good job on you video Jeremy. Look forward to seeing more of them.

Thanks i really appreciate the input!!!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
850 vort isn't looking that hot on the 18z GFS as of 84 hours.
Then west she goes boys!!!LOL
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1010. Levi32
Quoting stormpetrol:
93L starting to gradually slow down now!


I don't really see that quite yet, based on visible satellite imagery. The trade winds don't really put on the breaks until 75W, and the last 3 sets of ACTF coordinates show a constant speed so far in its journey through the Caribbean.
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We need it to hit the NW section of Yucatan, anything farther south is not good for TX
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1008. scott39
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

ROFLMBO Priceless....I luv it!!!!
Good job on you video Jeremy. Look forward to seeing more of them.
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850 vort isn't looking that hot on the 18z GFS as of 84 hours.
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1006. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

Pulleeeeze come to Texas!!!LOL


Right, gonna want every system to come here
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93L starting to gradually slow down now!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Quoting RitaEvac:
93L should stay north of Central America as far as I am seeing right now

Pulleeeeze come to Texas!!!LOL
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93L should stay north of Central America as far as I am seeing right now
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Quoting kmanislander:


No question that 93L is starting to take on a certain look. I have seen many fast movers start slowing just below Haiti so that is the first place I will be watching to see what the forward speed does. Notice the weakness that starts near Haiti with the center of the Atl high shunted off to the NE ??. This should bring the speed down late tonight / tomorrow.



Heya Kman,

If you can remember back to 2008, this system reminds me somewhat of the invest that became Dolly. It too had to endure fast trade winds in the ''dead zone'' before finally being able to develop. Karl from last year is another example of what you just mentioned.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23011
Re - "Here, sing this..."

I dare somebody to sing that in public. ;P
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not you Kman...give it till the next page...someone must of posted a youtube something...it will right itself on the next page
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Thanks for that, but I wanted the RH values, not the RI values.

Relative Humidity.


They're decent.

700-500 MB RH 52 56 56 56 56 60 62 66 68 72 70 72 71
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I have to leave for a while. Also having problems posting with error message. Quote function not working. Back soon.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.