Globe's 7th warmest July; remarkable heat in Asia; little change to 93L

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:34 PM GMT on August 16, 2011

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July 2011 was the globe's 7th warmest July on record, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies rated July the 3rd warmest on record. July 2011 global land temperatures were the 5th warmest on record, and ocean temperatures were the 11th warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 6th or 3rd warmest in the 34-year record, according to Remote Sensing Systems and the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). Arctic sea ice in July was the lowest on record, going back to 1979.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for July 2011. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Remarkable heat in Asia
For the second consecutive summer, some of the hottest temperatures in Earth's recorded history have scorched Asia. The six hottest (undisputed) temperatures ever measured in Asia have all occurred in during the past two summers:

1) 53.5°C (128.3°F) at Moenjodaro, Pakistan on May 26, 2010
2) 53.3°C (127.9°F) at Mitrabah, Kuwait on August 3, 2011
3) 53.1°C (127.6°F) at Sulaibiya, Kuwait on June 15, 2010
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Tallil, Iraq on August 3, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran, Iran on July 28, 2011
4) 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Sibi, Pakistan, on May 26, 2010


Asia's official all-time hottest temperature is 54°C measured at Tirat Zvi, Israel on June 21, 1942. However, as explained by our weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, this record is under serious dispute. Weather records researchers Howard Rainford and Maximiliano Herrera discovered that the thermograph trace of the record had been mis-read as one degree higher than it actually was, and there were other irregularities with the data. Also, a temperature in excess of 54°C was measured in Mitribah, Kuwait in July 2010, but the temperature sensor was found to be faulty.

Last year, twenty nations set all-time heat records. So far this year, there have been six such records set:

Kuwait recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011, when the mercury hit 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah. The previous record was 53.1°C in Sulaibiya on June 15, 2010. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been corresponding with representatives from the Kuwait Meteorological Center, the reading has been confirmed as authentic. The 53.3°C (127.0°F) at Mitrabah thus represents:

1) New official national record for Kuwait
2) Second highest (undisputed) temperature ever recorded in Asia
3) Highest temperature ever recorded in an Arabic country
4) Third hottest location in the planet together with Lake Havasu City, AZ (after Death Valley, CA and Moenjodaro, Pakistan)
5) A new world record for August

Iraq recorded its hottest temperature on record on August 3, 2011 in Tallil (Ali military airbase), when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F). The previous record was 52.3°C recorded at Diwanya FOB airbase a few days before.

Armenia recorded its hottest temperature on record on July 31 in Meghri, when the mercury hit 43.7°C (110.7°F). The previous record was 43.1°C in Meghri on July 17, 2005.

Iran recorded its hottest temperature in its history on July 28, 2011, when the mercury hit 53°C (127.4°F) at Dehloran. The previous previous record was set just one day earlier at Omidieh and Shoshtar, when the mercury hit 52.6°C (126.6°F).

Republic of the Congo set a new all-time extreme heat record on March 8, 2011, when the temperature hit 39.2°C (102.6°F) at M'Pouya. Congo's previous all-time hottest temperature was 39.0°C (102.2°F) at Impfondo on May 14, 2005.

Special mention:
Russia had its hottest temperature on record at a regular synoptic reporting station on July 30, 2011, when the mercury hit 44.3°C (111.7°F) at Divnoe in Russia's Kalmykia Republic. Three hotter temperatures have been recorded at automated stations: 45.4°C in 2010 at a hydrological station at Utta, plus readings of 45°C at El'ton and 44.5°C at Verhjnky Baskunkak in August 1940.

No nations have set an all-time coldest temperature record this year, or did so in 2010.

Weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera is the primary source of the weather records listed here; he maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website.

Gert misses Bermuda
Tropical Storm Gert brushed by Bermuda yesterday, bringing one brief rain shower and top winds of just 21 mph to the Bermuda Airport. Gert is headed northeastwards out to sea over colder waters, and does not have long to live. Gert is the 7th consecutive named storm in the Atlantic that has not reached hurricane strength. This is the first time that has occurred since record keeping began in 1851. However, it is quite possible such an event occurred before we had satellites to identify weak tropical storms that stayed out to sea. The previous record was six consecutive tropical storms without a hurricane, set most recently in 2002. While ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic have been very warm, ranking as the 3rd warmest on record during July, the atmosphere has been more stable and drier than usual, making it difficult for this year's storms to attain hurricane strength.


Figure 2. True color MODIS image taken from NASA's Aqua satellite of Tropical Storm Gert at 17:40 UTC on Monday, August 14, 2011. At the time, Gert was near peak strength, as a 60 mph tropical storm. Image credit: NASA.

Caribbean disturbance 93L
A large but disorganized tropical wave, (Invest 93L), is moving westwards at 15 - 20 mph over the eastern Caribbean Sea, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico. This wave has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorms and no signs of a surface circulation, though there is some large scale rotation apparent on satellite imagery. Dry air surrounds 93L, and is interfering with development. However, the disturbance is steadily moistening its environment and is under low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so it could begin to organize at any time. There is a hurricane hunter mission scheduled for this afternoon into 93L, but this mission will probably be cancelled given 93L's current lack of development.

93L will bring heavy rain showers to southern Haiti on Wednesday, and to Jamaica on Wednesday night. By Thursday, 93L's forward motion will slow to 10 - 15 mph, bringing heavy rains to Northern Honduras on Thursday and Friday, and Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula by Saturday. Some development of 93L is is likely beginning on Wednesday and Thursday in the Western Caribbean, as the latest SHIPS model forecast shows wind shear remaining in the low range and the atmosphere steadily moistening as 93L enters the Western Caribbean. However, a path too far south near the coast of Honduras may interfere with development, as predicted by the NOGAPS and GFS models, which dissipate 93L over northern Honduras. The best chances for development will probably occur early next week if 93L crosses the Yucatan Peninsula and enters the Gulf of Mexico, assuming the system survives the crossing intact and is not too far south, as predicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. These models are currently predicting that the steering pattern early next week over the Gulf of Mexico will be similar to what we saw with Tropical Storm Arlene earlier this year, favoring a track towards Northeast Mexico. The HWRF model is predicting a more northerly track for 93L across Jamaica and the western tip of Cuba into the Gulf of Mexico, but this model develops 93L too quickly, unrealistically making it a hurricane by Thursday. The HWRF model thus predicts a deeper storm that would be steered farther to the north due to upper level winds with less of a straight east-to-west motion than a much weaker (and more realistic) 93L would go. Although it is risky to predict what might happen more than five days in advance, the odds of 93L making a U.S. landfall currently appear low, 20% or less. NHC gave 93L a 20% chance of development by Thursday morning in their 8am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. These odds should probably be bumped up to 30% later today.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of Invest 93L, taken at 7:45am EDT August 16, 2011. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa is moving westward near 15 - 20 mph, and is expected to arrive in the Lesser Antilles Islands by Saturday. Both the GFS and UKMET models develop this wave into a tropical depression by Friday or Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Igor and Julia.
Thanks.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What storm is that ?


Igor and Julia.
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Quoting USAFwxguy:
Here comes the 588 height building over to the north...

System will likely guide into S FL, or Fl straits and into GoM for this run.



Actually moves North into SC.
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Popcorn convection...That means that convection should continue to fire in earnest, especially since it has good convergence and divergence.





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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Oops, sorry about that.

-----


This is a good image I use, and its EYESToSea's avatar.



Look at the dry air.
What storm is that ?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I was talking about the part where he said Dolly looked a lot more uniform than 93L does, which is why I posted that image.

IMO, 93L has a better chance of developing in the Caribbean than Dolly did.
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Still survives somehow and hits SC by 276.

Obviously, that really wouldn't work out that way in the real world.

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He is a she and I watched the satellite as she passed over us . Looked excellent. The one you show was when she began to encounter the Yucatan.


Oops, sorry about that.

-----


This is a good image I use, and its EYESToSea's avatar.



Look at the dry air.
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Isn't 93L mainly tracking much North of most Models Currently NOW!

Nice Trough thru Central Florida now.....



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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I was talking about the part where he said Dolly looked a lot more uniform than 93L does, which is why I posted that image.

IMO, 93L has a better chance of developing in the Caribbean than Dolly did.
.
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Quoting cloudburst2011:



well i disagree some of you guys take those models so serious...everytime you get let down ..just like i said this morning use your eyes its the best tool for forecasting the tropics...SAL is very plentiful and all you have to do is look what way its moving and the major wave you guys have been talking about will get swallowed up and be like any other wave that tried to beat the the dust this year...i look for this one to be a carbon copy of 93L...


Psst...guess what? SAL this year is lower than it was last season. So is dry air.

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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


I was talking about the part where he said Dolly looked a lot more uniform than 93L does, which is why I posted that image.

IMO, 93L has a better chance of developing in the Caribbean than Dolly did.
He is a she and I watched the satellite as she passed over us . Looked excellent. The one you show was when she began to encounter the Yucatan.
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cayman forecast said inverted trough is passing over us should leaves us this evening wed morn
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Runs into Cuba by 180.

Pretty weak once again.
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1076. Matt74
Quoting xtremeweathertracker:

Pulleeeeze come to Texas!!!LOL
That's what i'm talkin about! Upper Texas coast!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yes, Dolly was like this. And Dolly also nearly opened back up into a wave right before it hit the Yucatan. Dolly couldn't get her act together really until it got into the Gulf where it became a Category 2. Throughout most of the Caribbean trip though, was like 93L is now.


I was talking about the part where he said Dolly looked a lot more uniform than 93L does, which is why I posted that image.

IMO, 93L has a better chance of developing in the Caribbean than Dolly did.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yes, Dolly was like this. And Dolly also nearly opened back up into a wave right before it hit the Yucatan. Dolly couldn't get her act together really until it got into the Gulf where it became a Category 2. Throughout most of the Caribbean trip though, was like 93L is now.
Dolly "looked" like a tropical storm or Cat 1 as she passed over us BUT did not have a closed circulation.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
A week out...Weakening system over Haiti:



Again, the fact that the ECMWF and GFS are showing weaker systems is due to nothing to do with the environmental conditions that wouldn't cause for development, but the fact that the track keeps on shifting. IMO if the ECMWF shifts more north/south on the next run, same with the GFS, it will probably be a stronger system again. Right now, both go into Hispaniola, and that track will change like we've been seeing for a while now.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
Seems to be a full Caribbean trekker in this run..Dissipated it over Haiti.
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Really?

Really what ?
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Last visible shot before dark:

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10160
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Really?



Yes, Dolly was like this. And Dolly also nearly opened back up into a wave right before it hit the Yucatan. Dolly couldn't get her act together really until it got into the Gulf where it became a Category 2. Throughout most of the Caribbean trip though, was like 93L is now.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
By 174 this becomes an elongated vort max. Looks very similar to the ECMWF.

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A week out...Weakening system over Haiti:

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Quoting cat5hurricane:

Gulf looks like a Katrina or Rita environment.


Good thing nothing is in the GOM right now with absolutely NO WIND SHEAR at all.
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While its weaker, it still develops it into a Tropical cyclone.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23641
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
True, Dolly had difficulties organizing until right as she passed Grand Cayman but she looked much more uniform than 93L.


Really?

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By 162 it runs into Hispaniola as a weak-moderate system. IRL, this would probably lead to dissipation.

Of course the track could/should change.
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Winds out of the NNW at Jackson point!


Looks like the tropical equivalent of a cold front passed the Caymans, but without much rain. Is it that outflow boundary?
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Quoting RitaEvac:
We need it to hit the NW section of Yucatan, anything farther south is not good for TX


Still think 93L will get pulled toward Tx More than the models are showing. If it strengthens more than the models are showing by the time it reaches Jamiaca Longitude then a more Northerly track would be favored only if the HIGH located over the Heart of Texas retreats some as there is currently a little gap between the Texas High and the Bermuda High as you can see here!



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Quoting cloudburst2011:



when are you guys going to realize the computers are garbage they have not been right all year long...you guys look at them like they are GOSPEL..



Models are used for guidance, and that is the only thing they SHOULD be used for.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Heya Kman,

If you can remember back to 2008, this system reminds me somewhat of the invest that became Dolly. It too had to endure fast trade winds in the ''dead zone'' before finally being able to develop. Karl from last year is another example of what you just mentioned.
True, Dolly had difficulties organizing until right as she passed Grand Cayman but she looked much more uniform than 93L.
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Going to go with a hurricane landfall on Florida in this run.
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12z ECMWF and 18z GFS are pretty similar. The GFS just happens to tighten the vortex up before it moves into Hispaniola, while the ECMWF does not.

Wonder which one will fold.
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Next 7 days is fine with me but by End of this Month or Early in September I feel that ridge will move or break down and things will Improve, it will get cooler and some will get rain. I have waited this long we can hold on a little longer but 7 days is nothing. Models and forecasts change daily in the weather. The weathermen and the experts are not always right. Texas needs the Jet Stream to move down into this state.
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Tropical Storm in 6 days...

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1050. SLU
The GFS probably overestimated the strength of the Atlantic wave over the last few days as it has done with most of the systems in the last month. Given the system's poor representation now, it's quite unlikely that it will be a tropical cyclone as it enters the Caribbean with all that dry air around.

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132

Definitely the weakest run so far.

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1047. centex
Quoting Nightingale:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
301 PM CDT TUE AUG 16 2011

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS TEXAS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH NO RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND EXTREME DROUGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT READINGS. ANY TROPICAL SYSTEMS THAT SURVIVE THE YUCATAN PASSAGE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER MEXICO WELL SOUTH OF TEXAS THANKS TO THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS TEXAS
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN-HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE WILL BE USED FOR THE TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT FORECASTS.


great...burst my bubble.
Maybe it slows down enough and things change next week. Grabing at straws.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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